国际能源署预测，到2035年中国将占全球电解槽出口的95%以上
China to account for over 95% of global electrolyser exports in 2035: IEA
国际能源署在一份新报告中称，由于中国制造电解槽的成本较低，到2030-2035年，中国将成为全球电解槽的主要供应国。
China is set to become the major global supplier of electrolysers by 2030-2035, thanks to the low cost of making electrolysers in the country, the International Energy Agency (IEA) says in a new report.
根据国际能源署的既定政策方案（STEPS），预计到2035年，该亚洲国家将占全球电解槽出口量的95%以上，主要服务于中美洲、南美洲、中东和其他亚洲国家。国际能源署称，到2035年，该国生产的电解槽将有75%以上用于出口。
Under IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the Asian country is projected to account for over 95% of global electrolysers exports in 2035, primarily serving Central and South America, the Middle East and other Asian countries. The IEA says that over 75% of the electrolysers made in the country will be exported by 2035.
报告指出：“目前，中国的电解槽出口量极少，但在未来十年内，中国将成为全球市场的主要供应国。”
“China’s exports of electrolysers are currently minimal, but the country is set to emerge as a major supplier to the global market over the next decade,” the report notes.
在“已宣布承诺情景”（APS）下，中国在总出口中所占的份额预计将增长得更快，到2030年将超过95%。 然而，在该情景下，随着其他地区为满足国内需求而提高产量，到2035年，中国出口占生产的比重将从2030年的75%左右下降到40%左右。
The Chinese share of total exports is expected to increase much faster under the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), crossing 95% in 2030. However, under this scenario, the country’s share of exports in production would decline to around 40% by 2035 from around 75% in 2030, with other regions ramping up production to meet domestic demand.
尽管如此，国际能源署预计，在这两种情况下，中国的电解槽制造成本仍将“远低于”世界其他地区。
That said, the IEA expects the cost of manufacturing electrolysers to remain “significantly lower” in China compared to the rest of the world under both scenarios.
报告补充说：“由于资本成本较低、该国现有的庞大制造能力和规模经济以及较低的劳动力和能源成本，在这两种情景下，成本仍具有很强的竞争力。”
“Costs remain highly competitive in both scenarios thanks to the lower capital cost, the country’s large existing manufacturing capacity and economies of scale, and lower labour and energy costs,” the report adds.
到2030年，中国的平均平准化生产成本将比欧洲低40%，比美国低25%。“考虑到关税和非关税措施，中国电解槽的加权平均进口价格比许多国家的国产电解槽低约5%-40%。”
The average levelised cost of production in China will be 40% cheaper than those manufactured in Europe in 2030, and 25% lower than in the US. “Factoring in tariffs and NTMs [non-tariff measures], the weighted average import price of Chinese electrolysers is around 5-40% less than domestically produced ones in many countries.”
中国目前在全球电解槽制造业中处于领先地位，截至去年年底，中国的电解槽生产能力占全球的60%，装机产能约为15吉瓦。
China, which currently leads global electrolyser manufacturing, accounted for 60% of the worldwide electrolyser manufacturing capacity at the end of last year, with around 15 gigawatts (GW) of installed production capacity.
根据已公布的项目，到本年代末，中国的总产能将达到50吉瓦，其中55%已经投入运营或已做出最终投资决定。国际能源署补充说，不断增加的电解氢项目是这一扩张背后的主要驱动力。
Based on the announced projects, the total capacity in China could reach 50 GW by decade-end, of which 55% is either already operational or has reached the final investment decision (FID). The increasing pipeline of electrolytic hydrogen projects is the primary driver behind this expansion, the IEA adds.
报告补充说：“主要受强劲的国内需求推动，中国设施的年产量将增长到三倍多，到2035年，STEPS情景下的产量将近6吉瓦，APS情景下的产量将超过40吉瓦。在STEPS和APS情景下，中国占全球产量的份额将从2023年的70%以上下降到2030年的60%左右；在APS情景下，中国占全球产量的份额将进一步下降到2035年的50%左右。”
“Annual manufacturing output from Chinese facilities rises more than threefold to almost 6 GW in 2035 in the STEPS and to more than 40 GW in the APS, driven mainly by strong domestic demand,” the report adds. “In both the STEPS and the APS, China’s share of global production declines to around 60% in 2030, from over 70% in 2023, and further declines to around 50% in 2035 in the APS.”
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