特朗普胜选让清洁技术战略成疑
Trump’s victory throws clean tech strategies into doubt
唐纳德·特朗普即将重返白宫，成为美国第47任总统，令人对通胀削减法案的未来产生疑问。
Donald Trump is returning to the White House as the US’ 47th president, leaving the world questioning what will happen with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
在周三清晨的演讲中，特朗普强调了美国在“液体黄金”方面的潜力，并称美国的石油储量超过了沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯。特朗普也表达了对他胜选的关键盟友埃隆·马斯克的喜爱。在谈到马斯克在太空火箭和卫星通信系统“星链”方面取得的成功时，特朗普称马斯克是“明星”和“超级天才”。
In an early morning speech on Wednesday, Trump highlighted the US potential with “liquid gold” referring to the country’s oil reserves, which he claims to be larger than Saudi Arabia and Russia. He also declared his love for Elon Musk, a key ally in his victory, whom Trump described as a “star” and “super genius” while talking about Musk’s success with space rockets and the satellite communication system, Starlink.
电动汽车被认为是马斯克的另一个成功故事，但却没有出现在演讲中。特朗普曾批评过电动汽车和氢燃料电池汽车，与马斯克的结盟是否会改变他对道路交通脱碳的立场，我们拭目以待。
Electric vehicles, deemed another Musk success story, did not make it into the speech. Having criticised both electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, it remains to be seen if Trump’s alliance with Musk will change his stance on road transport decarbonisation.
罗兰贝格高级合伙人、全球汽车业务主管Wolfgang Bernhart评论说：“随着特朗普从2025年起再次担任总统，各种法规可能会发生变化，从而导致北美电动汽车销售和国内电池市场进一步放缓。共和党人可能会将电动汽车的激励措施和税收减免作为目标，可能会限制电动汽车的使用，尤其是商用车和租赁车辆。”
“With another Trump presidency from 2025, various regulations are likely to change, resulting in a further slow-down of EV sales in North America and the domestic battery market,” comments Wolfgang Bernhart, senior partner and global head of automotive at Roland Berger. “Republicans are likely to target EV incentives and tax credits, potentially restricting their accessibility, particularly for commercial vehicles and leases.”
目前的预测是，2030年纯电动汽车的销售份额将达到46%，2035年将达到66%。不过，Bernhat现在预计，在基本情况下，2030年和2035年的销售份额将分别降至30%和40-50%。
Currently, the forecast is for all-electric vehicles (BEVs) to hold a sales share of 46% in 2030 and 66% in 2035. However, Bernhat now expects that to be lower at 30% in 2030 and 40-50% in 2035, in a base case scenario.
对于电池市场而言，他预计这意味着2030年和2035年的电池市场将分别达到约1太瓦时和1.4太瓦时，而不是大选前预计的约0.7-0.8太瓦时和1.1-1.2太瓦时。他补充说，BESS（固定式储能）方面可能会有更多潜在的不利因素。
For the battery market, that means that instead of the pre-election view of around 1 terawatt-hour (TWh) in 2030 and 1.4 TWh in 2035, he expects around 0.7-0.8 TWh in 2030 and 1.1-1.2 TWh in 2035. There will likely be further potential downsides on the BESS (stationary energy storage) side, he adds.
Benhart还认为，美国环保署（EPA）针对即将到来的车型年制定的更为严格的法规可能会被废除，加利福尼亚州的排放法规可能会面临法律挑战，甚至可能被撤销。对从墨西哥进口的汽车和零部件征收的关税预计将提高，这将对进口产生影响，但同时也会强制要求在美国生产电池。
Benhart also believes more stringent Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations for upcoming model years may be scrapped, and that California’s emissions regulations could face legal challenges and potentially revocation. Tariffs on vehicles and components imported from Mexico are expected to be increased, impacting imports but enforcing the case of producing batteries in the US.
布鲁塞尔咨询公司Sustainable Public Affairs的可持续发展倡导者Leon de Graaf说，在氢气方面，共和国政府可能意味着美国通胀削减法案的氢气生产税收抵免（45 V）“很可能会被取消”。“即使拜登赶在1月之前通过了该法案，也有可能是昙花一现。因为虽然这可能会让特朗普的一些石油大佬朋友受益，但他已经发誓要废除拜登时代的任何机制，那么他为什么还要让这个代价高昂的机制继续存在呢？”
On the hydrogen front, a Republic administration could mean the US IRA’s hydrogen production tax credit (45 V) is “likely out of the window,” says Leon de Graaf, sustainability advocate at Brussels-based consultancy Sustainable Public Affairs. “Even if Biden rushes it through before January, the risk is it’ll be short-lived. Because while it might benefit some of Trump’s oil major friends, he has sworn to dismantle any Biden-era mechanisms, so why would he keep this costly one alive?”
据Carbon Brief报道，与现任总统乔·拜登的计划相比，特朗普政府到2030年将使美国的排放量增加40亿吨。该报告警告说：“这足以抵消——两倍于——过去五年全球部署风能、太阳能和其他清洁技术所节省的所有排放量。”
According to Carbon Brief, a Trump administration could add 4 billion tonnes of US emissions by 2030, compared with incumbent Joe Biden’s plans. “This is enough to negate – twice over – all of the emissions savings from deploying wind, solar and other clean technologies around the world over the past five years,” it warns.
清洁技术公司可能会保持观望态度，直到1月20日之后，届时特朗普可能会进一步明确他的计划和通胀削减法案的未来。
Clean technologies companies are likely to maintain their wait-and-see approach until after 20 January, when Trump could provide further clarity on his plans and the future of the IRA.
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