东南亚钢铁协会认为东盟大型钢厂将提振原材料需求
ASEAN mega mills boost raw materials demand: SEAISI
Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）在本周于吉隆坡举行的Mysteel 2024亚洲铁矿石峰会上获悉，东盟潜在的大型钢厂和扩建项目将使该地区需要大量的铁矿石原料。
Aslew of potential massive steel mills and expansions in ASEAN will see the region requiring significant quantities of iron ore feedstock, Kallanish heard at this week’s Mysteel 2024 Asia Iron Ore Summit in Kuala Lumpur.
到2030年，潜在的高炉-转炉新产能共计8,360万吨/年，直接还原铁项目产能为1,450万吨/年，将分别需要1.25-1.45亿吨/年的铁矿石和2,000-2,500万吨/年的铁矿石。东南亚钢铁协会（Seaisi）秘书长Yeoh Wee Jin告诉与会代表，这表明铁矿石的综合需求量为1.45-1.7亿吨/年。
Potential new blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace capacity totalling 83.6 million tonnes/year and direct reduced iron projects of 14.5m t/y by 2030 will require 125-145m t/y of iron ore and 20-25m t/y of iron ore respectively. This indicates a combined iron ore demand of 145-170m t/y, Yeoh Wee Jin, secretary general of the South East Asia Iron & Steel Institute (Seaisi), told delegates.
他表示，东盟和印度正在建设的“超大型”高炉钢厂与世界其他地方钢铁工业的脱碳进程背道而驰。这些高炉污染严重，与当前在碳税和CBAM以及实现净零目标承诺的背景下向脱碳的转变背道而驰。
The “mega” blast furnace mills which are being installed in ASEAN and India are the reverse of the decarbonising of steel industries elsewhere in the world, he noted. They are highly pollutant and go against the current shift towards decarbonisation amid a landscape of carbon taxes and CBAM, as well as commitments to meet net-zero targets.
尽管对原材料的大量需求将使供应商感到满意，但Yeoh对自2013年以来迅速投产的地区性高炉/转炉大型钢厂的可持续性提出质疑。他警告说，这些钢厂正在造成行业的“去绿色化”，预计未来将导致温室气体排放的“爆炸性增长”。相比之下，2021年该地区的产能为7,810万吨/年，其中包括2,250万吨/年高炉/转炉和5,560万吨/年电弧炉产能。
While the large demand for raw materials will please suppliers, Yeoh questioned the sustainability of the regional blast furnace/BOF mega mills, which have come onstream rapidly since 2013. They are causing the “de-greening” of the industry and are expected to lead to an “explosion” of green house gas emissions in future, he warned. As a comparison, regional capacity of 78.1m t/y in 2021 comprised 22.5m t/y of BF/BOF and 55.6m t/y of EAF capacities.
Yeoh补充说，“巨大的”产能将溢出本地区之外，因为这远远超出了本地区的需求。2023年，该地区的成品钢材需求量为7,400万吨。
The “humungous” amount of capacity coming up will overflow outside of the region as it far exceeds the region’s demand, Yeoh added. Regional finished steel demand stood at 74mt in 2023.
他估计，越南和印度尼西亚的产能过剩将超过需求约2.3-2.5倍，马来西亚将超过需求约7.9倍。随着贸易救济措施的增加和政府对新钢铁投资审查的加强，产能过剩的影响已经显现。
He estimated that overcapacity will outstrip demand around 2.3-2.5-fold in Vietnam and Indonesia, and by around 7.9-fold in Malaysia. The impact of overcapacity is already being felt with rising trade remedies and increased government scrutiny on new steel investments.
如果政策发生变化，产品面临碳税或其他障碍，投资者就会面临为此类项目融资的风险，因此这些大规模钢铁项目是不可持续的。不过，他补充道，向DRI工厂供应高品位铁含量材料的机会将会增加。
The massive steel projects are unsustainable given that investors face risks in financing such projects if policies change and products face carbon taxes or other barriers. However, the opportunities to supply higher grade iron-content material to DRI plants will rise, he added.
该地区铁矿石的主要消费国是越南和印度尼西亚。
The main consumers of iron ore in the region are Vietnam and Indonesia (see table).
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