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摘要
引言
INTRODUCTION
随着自然、环境、工业和交通灾害的频率和严重性增加，全球各国政府正越来越积极地准备和应对灾难事件。许多政府已建立综合的应急管理流程，包括灾害减轻、准备、响应和恢复，而中国也不例外。在准备阶段，关键的财政工具是通过设立应急基金或为应急管理分配预算项目来制定应急预算。这样的应急预算实践使政府能够定期为潜在危机预留财务资源。
With the rising frequency and severity of natural, environmental, industrial, and transport disasters, governments around the world are increasingly adopting a more proactive role in preparing for and responding to disastrous events (Comfort et al., 2012; Lu & Xue, 2016; Krogh & Lo, 2023; Painter, 2024; Pew, 2020). It has become common for many governments to institute comprehensive emergency management processes encompassing disaster mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery (Boin et al., 2005; Donahue & Joyce, 2001; Røiseland & Trætteberg, 2024), and China is no exception (Lu & Xue, 2016). During the preparation stage, a key fiscal tool is to budget for emergencies either by establishing an emergency fund or by allocating budgetary items for emergency management (Kirschner et al., 2018; Phaup & Kirschner, 2010). Such an emergency budgeting practice allows governments to set aside financial resources regularly for potential crises (Pew, 2020).
研究问题
RESEARCH QUESTION
研究假设
HYPOTHESES
模型设定
MODELS
考虑到灾害事件造成的货币损失可能因地方政府的减灾努力或社会经济状况而与应急预算和预算盈余存在内生性关系，我们在两个方程中使用了一组四个关于灾害强度的工具变量，包括受到气候灾害、地震和地质灾害影响的人口比例，以及居住在农村地区的人口比例（Cutters等，2003）。这些工具变量的数据均来自多年的《中国统计年鉴》。从概念上讲，这组工具变量应是有效的，因为它与灾害的严重性高度相关，但不受政府减灾努力或财政状况的影响。我们进行了严格的测试以确保这些工具变量的适用性。
Considering that the monetary losses inflicted by hazard events may be endogenous with both emergency budget and budget surplus due to the mitigation efforts or socioeconomic status of the subnational government, we employed a set of four instruments for disaster intensity in both equations, including the percentage of the population affected by climate disasters, earthquakes, and geological disasters, and the percentage of the population living in rural areas (Cutters et al., 2003). The data for the instrumental variables all came from the China Statistical Yearbooks of multiple years. Conceptually, this set of four instruments should be valid because it is highly correlated with the severity of disasters, but it is not influenced by the governments' mitigation efforts or fiscal conditions. We conducted rigorous tests to ensure the instruments were appropriate.
数 据
DATA
我们编制了涵盖2016年至2020年间30个地方政府的面板数据集。
We compiled a panel dataset from 30 subnational governments in China over 5 years (2016–2020) using hand-collected information from disaster events and subnational financial accounts.
研究发现
FINDINGS
我们发现过去三年累积的灾害损害、政府预算盈余和债务水平均与地方应急预算的规模呈正相关，表明政府在确定应急预算规模时会从灾害经验中学习并考虑其财政状况。我们还发现，灾害损害可能对政府预算造成重大压力，而应急预算在减轻灾害对政府财政的负面影响方面仅发挥有限作用。这可能是由于应急预算的不足以及缺乏有效机制使得这些预算在中国无法正常运作。
We found that cumulative disaster damage from the past 3 years, government budget surplus, and debt level are all positively related to the size of subnational emergency budgets, suggesting that governments learn from disaster experience and take account of their financial situations when deciding on the size of emergency budgets. We also found that disaster damage can place a significant strain on governments' budgets while emergency budgets only play a limited role in moderating the negative impact of disasters on government finances. This may result from the insufficiency of emergency budgets and a lack of an effective mechanism for such budgets to function properly in China.
贡献
CONTRIBUTION
文章来源：
Chen, G., Li, R., & Wang, Q. (2024). Government emergency budgeting and disaster impact: Evidence from China. Public Administration, 1–23.
原文链接：
https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.13036（或点击文末“阅读原文”查看）
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