美国废钢市场8月价格预期分歧，下跌可能性不大
US scrap market debates August prices, decline unlikely
临近8月交易，美国国内市场对废钢价格的预期出现分歧。不过，市场参与者预期价格将持稳或上涨，没有人预测会出现下跌趋势。
Approaching August trading, expectations for scrap prices are seen diverging in the US domestic market. Participants expect either a stabilisation or higher prices, however, with no one forecasting a downtrend.
一些市场参与者预计，由于废钢回收速度放缓，废钢价格将最终走强，但也有一些市场参与者认为，由于需求疲软，卷材价格持续下滑，价格走强的可能性不大。
While some market participants expect prices to finally strengthen due to slow inflow of scrap into yards, some others do not find this likely due to the continuing slide in coil prices amid struggling demand.
一位废钢经销商告诉Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）：“供应紧张。如果钢厂想确保供应，就必须支付更高的价格。如果他们推迟需求并限制采购量，8月份的价格可能会保持不变，但9月份的价格会出现较大幅度的上涨。”
A scrap dealer tellsKallanish: “Supply is tight! If mills want to secure their requirements, they will have to pay more. If they delay their requirements and keep their purchases limited, prices might remain unchanged during August trading but see a steeper rise in September.”
西海岸方面，美国原产的集装箱装运HMS 1&2 80:20废钢报价保持不变，为347-350美元/吨cfr台湾省，意向交易水平为345美元/吨cfr。然而，由于钢材市场销售缓慢、台湾钢厂产量低以及方坯报价竞争激烈，进口需求仍然停滞不前。当地的丰兴钢铁股份有限公司本周也维持废钢价格不变。市场参与者预计需求将在8月下旬恢复。
For West Coast business, US-origin containerised HMS 1&2 80:20 offers remain unchanged at $347-350/tonne cfr Taiwan, with the indicative deal level at $345/t cfr. However, import demand remains stagnant due to slow steel market sales, low Taiwanese steel mill output and competitive billet offers. Local mill Feng Hsin also maintained its scrap prices for this week. Market players expect demand to resume in late August.
东海岸方面，土耳其钢厂上周购买了三批原产于美国的货物，HMS 1&2 80:20的价格为390美元/吨cfr土耳其，与前一周持平。由于利润已经受到挤压，土耳其生产商拒绝为废钢支付更高的价格，但他们也未能将价格降至理想水平。
On the East Coast, Turkish mills bought three US-origin cargoes last week, at $390/t cfr Turkey for HMS 1&2 80:20, unchanged from the previous week. Turkish producers are refusing to pay higher prices for scrap due to already squeezed margins, but they have also failed to reduce prices to the desired level.
印度钢铁行业面临中国产能过剩压力
Indian steel faces Chinese overcapacity pressure
Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）获悉，印度《2023-24年经济调查》指出，自2021年以来，中国房地产行业表现疲软，导致钢铁行业产能严重过剩，这反过来又导致全球钢铁价格的崩溃。
India’s Economic Survey 2023-24 notes that the weak performance of China's real estate sector since 2021 has caused significant overcapacity in its steel industry. This in turn has led to a collapse in global steel prices,Kallanish observes.
调查报告中关于中国制造业巨头及其对新兴市场和发展中经济体威胁的部分指出，产能过剩和随之而来的中国出口增长对印度、越南、巴西等国的钢铁生产商造成巨大压力。
This overcapacity and subsequent rise in Chinese exports is putting significant pressure on steel producers in various countries including India, Vietnam, Brazil and others, according to the survey’s section regarding the Chinese manufacturing juggernaut and the threat it poses to emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs)
报告称：“……自2021年以来，中国房地产业表现不佳，造成严重的产能过剩，导致全球钢材价格暴跌，目前给印度、越南、巴西和其他国家的生产商带来巨大压力。”
“…the poor performance of China’s property sector since 2021 created significant overcapacity leading to a collapse in global steel prices, which now puts significant pressure on producers in India, Vietnam, Brazil, and other countries,” it said.
报告指出：“据估计，中国的钢铁产品出口量继去年增长35%之后，在2024年将再次激增27%。”
“Estimates show that China’s steel product exports are surging again—by 27% so far in 2024—after 35% growth last year,” it added.
调查还强调了绿色钢铁在全球范围内的重要性。报告称：“随着全球向低碳经济迈进，绿色钢铁将在重塑钢铁行业未来的过程中发挥关键作用。”
The survey also highlighted the importance of green steel in a global context. “As the world moves towards a low-carbon economy, green steel is poised to play a pivotal role in reshaping the future of the steel industry,” it said.
印度钢铁行业占印度温室气体排放量的12%，其排放强度为每吨粗钢2.5吨二氧化碳，而全球平均水平为每吨粗钢1.9吨二氧化碳。
India’s steel sector accounts for 12% of India’s greenhouse gas emissions with an emissions intensity of 2.5 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of crude steel compared to the global average of 1.9 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of crude steel.
印度联邦财政部长Nirmala Sitharaman于7月22日向议会提交了《2023-24年经济调查》。该调查全面概述了印度的经济状况和挑战，旨在为政策制定者、商界领袖、公众和其他利益相关者提供信息。该报告是在将于7月23日星期二举行的联邦预算之前提交的。
India’s Union Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman tabled the Economic Survey 2023-24 in parliament on 22 July. The survey is a comprehensive overview of India’s economic conditions and challenges aimed at informing policymakers, business leaders, the public and other stakeholders. It was presented ahead of the Union Budget which will be held on Tuesday, 23 July.
调查还指出印度最近的钢铁净进口国地位。在过去十年中，印度一直是成品钢材净出口国，而在截至2024年3月的财年（2024财年），印度成为钢材净进口国。印度成为净进口国的原因是国际和国内成品钢材价格之间的价差。
The survey also noted India’s recent net steel importer status. India turned into a net steel importer in the fiscal year ending on March 2024 (FY24), after being a net exporter of finished steel over the last ten years. It turned into a net importer due to price differentials between international and domestic prices of finished steel.
此外，调查显示，印度对炼焦煤的进口依赖从2023财年的5,610万吨增加到2024财年的5,810万吨，而炼焦煤被认为是钢铁生产的重要原材料。
Moreover, India’s import dependence on coking coal, which is considered as an essential raw material for steel production, increased from 56.1 million tonnes in FY23 to 58.1 mt in FY24, as per the survey.
cybex数据显示，6月份印度热轧卷进口量环比增长42.95%，达到208,469吨。由于印度热轧卷出口量环比下滑25.6%至48,719吨，印度在6月份继续成为净进口国（见Kallanish往期报道）。
Indianhot rolled coil imports rose 42.95% month-on-month to 208,469 tonnes in June, according to cybex data. It continued to be a net importer in June, as Indian HRC exports slumped 25.6% month-on-month to 48,719t (see Kallanish passim).
调查还指出，全球向实现净零排放过渡所需的若干技术在商业上的不可获得性是一项挑战。其中包括以氢为燃料的钢铁或水泥，使用碳捕获、利用和储存（CCUS）技术的钢铁和铝生产等。
The survey also noted the commercial unavailability of several technologies required for the global transition towards achieving net zero emissions as a challenge. Some examples included hydrogen-fuelled steel or cement, steel and aluminium production using carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) and more.
报告建议加强研发方面的国际合作，特别是在分布式可再生能源、海上风能、地热等关键领域。
It recommended enhancing international cooperation in research and development, especially in key areas such as distributed renewable energy, offshore wind, geothermal and others.
报道称泰国继续调查比亚迪折扣问题
Thai investigation on BYD's discounts continues: reports
据媒体报道，泰国消费者保护委员会高级官员Passakron Thampmongkol称，泰国政府计划继续调查中国汽车制造商比亚迪的折扣问题。
The Thai government plans to continue investigations on Chinese automaker BYD's discounts, according to reports citing Passakron Thampmongkol, senior officer at the Consumer Protection Board of Thailand.
Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）Power Materials仍在等待委员会对此问题的答复。
Kallanish Power Materials is still waiting for the board's response on this issue.
据当地报纸《Kaohoo International》等媒体报道，已经购买比亚迪汽车的消费者对最近的降价活动感到不满，他们认为自己之前支付的价格过高。
According to media reports by local newspapers such asKaohoo International, customers who already purchased BYD cars felt dissatisfied about the recent price cuts, which they missed out on, as they considered they overpaid for the cars.
报道称：“泰国总理赛塔·他威信敦促比亚迪首席执行官王传福维护消费者利益，王传福对此承诺确保未来采取适当的定价策略。”
The report says: "Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin urged BYD ceo Wang Chuanfu to safeguard consumer interests, to which Wang committed to ensuring appropriate pricing strategies in the future."
比亚迪持有20%股份的Rever Automotive是比亚迪在泰国的经销商。该公司最近推出了现金返还措施和充电站折扣。这些优惠政策将持续到2025年3月。从7月18日至8月底，比亚迪现有客户在下一次购买ATTO 3或比亚迪海豹车型时，可获得最高5万泰铢的现金返还。
Rever Automotive, in which BYD holds a 20% stake, is BYD's distributor in Thailand.It recently launched a cash-back initiative and discounts at charging stations. These incentives will be available until March 2025. Existing BYD customers can receive cash back of up to THB 50,000 baht on their next purchase of the ATTO 3 or BYD Seal models from 18 July to the end of August.
报道称，尽管制定了赔偿方案，委员会仍坚持将对该汽车制造商进行调查。
Despite the compensation programme, according to the report, the board insists it will investigatethe automaker.
7月1日，比亚迪在泰国宣布，升级版Atto 3降价10万至34万泰铢（2,754美元至9,366美元）/辆。此外，比亚迪还宣布其海豚车型的折扣为14万至16万泰铢。这比之前约4万泰铢的优惠幅度要大得多。
On 1 July in Thailand, BYDannounced that the upgraded version of Atto 3 has a price reduction of THB 100,000-340,000 ($2,754-9,366) per vehicle. It also announced discounts of THB 140,000-160,000 on its Dolphin models. This was significantly more than the previous campaign's discount of around THB 40,000.
同时，根据7月5日发布的一份报告，泰国贸易竞争委员会秘书长Wissanu Wongsinsirikul表示，Rever Automotive降低比亚迪电动汽车车型价格的行为并未违反《贸易竞争法》。
Meanwhile, according to a report released on 5 July, Wissanu Wongsinsirikul, secretary general of the Trade Competition Commission Thailand saidRever Automotive did not violate the Trade Competition Act by lowering prices on BYD's EV models.
报道称，他解释说，如果比亚迪降低价格，同时向合作伙伴或供应商施压降价，就有可能违反竞争法，但比亚迪迄今为止的行为并未显示出这种迹象。不过，他强调有必要核实比亚迪是否将销售价格定得低于其生产成本。
The report said he explained that if BYD lowered its prices and simultaneously pressured partners or suppliers to do the same, it could potentially breach competition laws, but BYD's actions so far do not indicate such behavior. Still, he stressed the need to verify whether BYD has set selling prices below their production costs.
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