2030年前锂离子电池将继续占主导地位
Li-ion batteries to dominate demand by 2030: report
一份新报告称，全球电池需求到本年代末将增至四倍，达到4,100吉瓦时，预计锂离子技术将继续占主导地位。
Global battery demand is set to jump fourfold to 4,100 gigawatt-hours (GWh) by decade-end, with lithium-ion technology expected to continue to dominate supply, according to a new report.
总部位于波士顿的咨询公司Bain & Company指出，固态电池和高密度钠离子电池等新兴电池技术仍处于原型和试验阶段。Kallanish（开阑商务信息咨询）Power Materials获悉，到2030年，这些电池的市场份额预计将在个位数范围内。
Boston-based consultancy firm Bain & Company notes emerging battery technologies such as solid-state and high-density sodium-ion batteries are still in their prototype and pilot stages. The market share of these batteries is expected to be in the single-digit range by 2030,Kallanish Power Materials notes.
报告还指出，到本年代末，固态电池和钠离子电池将是唯一商业化的新兴技术。
That said, solid state and sodium-ion will be the only commercialised emerging technologies by decade-end, the report adds.
Bain & Company先进制造服务部门合伙人Mahadevan Seetharaman说：“电池是OEM（原始设备制造商）最大的成本驱动因素，而且会影响产品性能。然而，电池化学成分的不断变化，尤其是锂离子电池，正在影响原始设备制造商的产品路线图。”
“Batteries are the single biggest cost driver for OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] and they influence product performance,” says Mahadevan Seetharaman, a partner at Bain & Company’s Advanced Manufacturing Services practice. “However, ongoing flux across battery chemistries, especially within lithium-ion batteries, are affecting OEM product roadmaps.”
Seetharaman补充说：“全球的原始设备制造商都面临着一个关键的选择，那就是使用哪种类型的电池，以及是自主开发电池还是与其他公司合作开发电池。”
“OEMs across the world face the critical choice of which battery type to use and whether to develop batteries in-house or through collaboration with other companies,” Seetharaman adds.
该公司表示，镍锰钴（NMC）和磷酸铁锂（LFP）将继续成为主要的正极化学材料。由于大众市场电动汽车的“强劲”需求和成熟的供应链，以及磷酸铁锂变体（如M3P和磷酸锰铁锂）的出现，预计磷酸铁锂将在中国占据主导地位。
Meanwhile, nickel manganese cobalt (NMC) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) will continue to be the dominant cathode chemistries, the Boston-based firm says. LFP is expected to dominate in China due to a “robust” demand for mass-market EVs and established supply chains, alongside the emergence of LFP variants such as M3P and lithium manganese iron phosphate (LFMP).
虽然LFP在美国和欧盟的份额会增加，但仍将低于中国。专业人士将此归因于“缺少”国内LFP生产以及不太成熟的铁和磷供应链。
While LFP’s share is set to increase in the US and the EU, it will still be lower than in China. The experts attributed this to the “non-existent” domestic LFP production and the less mature iron and phosphorous supply chains.
报告指出：“因此，从中国进口LFP的成本将削弱LFP相对于NMC的成本优势。在回收利用方面相对NMC的不利经济性加剧了这种情况。”
“Consequently, the cost advantage of LFP vs. NMC will be undercut by the costs of importing LFP from China,” the report notes. “This is exacerbated by unfavourable economics of recycling vs. NMC.”
该咨询公司还预计，在原料量扩大的推动下，电动汽车电池回收量将大幅增长。
The consultancy also expects a significant growth in EV battery recycling, driven by an expansion in feedstock volumes.
报告总结道：“未来几年，从不断发展的技术到地缘政治紧张局势的变化，各种因素将继续影响电池战略。领导者必须评估他们现在可以安全地做出哪些假设，哪些决策应该保持开放。”
“In the coming years, various factors from evolving technology to shifting geopolitical tensions will continue to affect battery strategy,” the report concludes. “Leaders must assess what assumptions they can safely make now and what decisions they should keep open
点击下方图片了解更多详情
Kallanish 网站
日报 周报 月报 会议
广告虚位以待
欢迎咨询微信: Kallanish
