美国财政挑战的国际溢出效应

Joshua Aizenman, William Eldén, Yothin Jinjarak, Gazi Salah Uddin, and Frida Widholm #32868

Abstract: Expansionary fiscal policies have increased significantly following the subprime crisis in 2007 and the COVID-19 crisis, leading to fiscal dominance concerns, where a growing share of monetary authorities may be forced to deviate from policy targets to accommodate fiscal policies. Meanwhile, peripheral economies are constantly influenced by monetary and fiscal conditions in center economies, with the United States (U.S.) as the predominant force. In light of these developments, we examine the potential international spillovers from U.S. inflationary spells and growing fiscal concerns to the policy interest rates in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) and Developed Economies (DEs). We introduce a new index of fiscal dominance concerns using Principal Components Analysis, and extend the concept to an international perspective, as opposed to previous literature examining fiscal dominance in a domestic environment. The results are confirmed by robustness analysis and show that greater U.S. fiscal challenges affect negatively the policy rates in both EMEs and DEs, with a greater impact observed in EMEs. Moreover, a low degree of financial repression is associated with more significant spillover effects from greater U.S. fiscal challenges.

摘要：自2007年次贷危机和COVID-19危机以来，扩张性财政政策显著增加，导致对财政主导的担忧加剧，即越来越多的货币当局可能被迫偏离政策目标以适应财政政策。同时，外围经济体不断受到中心经济体的货币和财政状况的影响，其中美国是最主要的力量。鉴于这些发展，我们研究了美国通胀高涨和日益加剧的财政问题对新兴市场经济体（EMEs）和发达经济体（DEs）政策利率的潜在国际溢出效应。我们通过主成分分析（Principal Components Analysis）引入了一个新的财政主导问题指数，并将这一概念扩展到国际视角，这不同于以往文献在国内环境中对财政主导问题的探讨。稳健性分析证实了我们的结果，显示出美国更严重的财政挑战对EMEs和DEs的政策利率产生了负面影响，且在EMEs中观察到的影响更大。此外，较低程度的金融抑制与更显著的美国财政挑战溢出效应相关联。

双重信贷市场：收入风险、家庭债务与消费

David A. Matsa, Brian T. Melzer, and Michal Zator #32858

Abstract: Many young employees work on a temporary basis, which entails significantly greater income risk than “permanent” work, even for jobs in the same occupation and at a similar wage. We find that this income uncertainty leads lenders to ration credit to temporary workers, precisely at the stage of life when permanent workers rely on mortgages to invest in housing and loans to smooth consumption and purchase durable goods. Labor laws that improve job security for permanent workers create a dual credit market alongside the dual labor market, making it harder for young adults to establish financial independence and new families.

摘要：许多年轻员工以临时工的形式工作，这比“永久”工作带来显著更大的收入风险，即使是相同职业和类似工资的工作。我们发现，这种收入不确定性导致贷方对临时工的信贷配给，恰恰在永久员工依靠抵押贷款投资住房、通过贷款平滑消费和购买耐用品的生命阶段。改善永久员工工作保障的劳动法在双重劳动力市场的同时创造了双重信贷市场，使得年轻人更难建立经济独立和组建新家庭。

工作任务：比较优势、技术与劳动需求

Daron Acemoglu, Fredric Kong, and Pascual Restrepo #32872

Abstract:  This chapter reviews recent advances in the task model and shows how this framework can be put to work to understand the major labor market trends of the last several decades. Production in each industry necessitates the completion of a range of tasks, which can be allocated to workers of different skill types or to capital. Factors of production have well-defined comparative advantage across tasks, which governs the pattern of substitution between skill groups. Technological change can: (1) augment a specific labor type—e.g., increase the productivity of labor in tasks it is already performing; (2) augment capital; (3) automate work by enabling capital to perform tasks previously allocated to labor; (4) create new tasks. The task model clarifies that these different types of technological changes have distinct effects on labor demand, factor shares and productivity, and their full impact depends on the pattern of substitution between different factors which arises endogenously in the task framework. We explore the implications of the task framework using reduced-form evidence, which highlights the central role of automation and new tasks in recent labor market trends. We also explain how general equilibrium effects ignored in these reduced-form approaches can be estimated structurally.

摘要：本章回顾了任务模型的最新进展，并展示了如何运用这一框架来理解过去几十年中的主要劳动市场趋势。每个行业的生产都需要完成一系列任务，这些任务可以分配给不同技能类型的工人或资本。生产要素在不同任务中具有明确的比较优势，这决定了不同技能群体之间的替代模式。技术变革可以：（1）增强特定类型的劳动——例如，提高劳动在其已经执行的任务中的生产力；（2）增强资本；（3）通过使资本能够执行先前由劳动承担的任务来实现工作自动化；（4）创造新任务。任务模型明确了这些不同类型的技术变革对劳动需求、要素份额和生产力有着不同的影响，它们的全面影响取决于在任务框架中内生产生的不同要素之间的替代模式。我们通过简化形式的证据探讨任务框架的影响，这些证据突出强调了自动化和新任务在最近劳动市场趋势中的核心作用。我们还解释了如何通过结构性估计来评估这些简化形式方法中忽略的一般均衡效应。

长期扩大儿童税收抵免的潜在长期影响

Elizabeth Ananat and Irwin Garfinkel #32870

Abstract: For many of those who worked to include an expanded Child Tax Credit in the 2021 American Rescue Plan, an important motivation was to test the feasibility and effectiveness of a permanent U.S. child allowance similar to those provided in other rich countries. Because this expansion was short-lived, however, evaluations of its effects cannot provide complete evidence on the long-run effects of a permanently expanded CTC. We leverage theoretical predictions from standard economic models, behavioral science, and child development frameworks, along with empirical evidence from literature evaluating previous long-term cash and quasi-cash transfers to families with children, to predict the likely long-run impacts of a permanent child allowance. We find that it would lead to increased future earnings and tax payments, improved health and longevity, and reduced health care, crime, and child protection costs; using conventional valuations, benefits to society outweigh costs nearly 10 to 1, with most benefits due to credit refundability.

摘要：对于许多致力于在2021年《美国救助计划》中纳入扩大的儿童税收抵免（CTC）的人来说，一个重要的动机是测试类似于其他富裕国家提供的永久性儿童津贴在美国的可行性和有效性。然而，由于此次扩展的时间较短，对其效果的评估无法提供有关永久性扩大CTC的长期影响的完整证据。我们利用标准经济模型、行为科学和儿童发展框架的理论预测，以及评估以往对有儿童家庭的长期现金和准现金转移支付的实证证据，来预测永久性儿童津贴的可能长期影响。我们的研究发现，这将导致未来收入和税收的增加、健康和寿命的改善，以及医疗保健、犯罪和儿童保护成本的减少；根据传统估值，社会的收益几乎是成本的10倍，其中大部分收益归功于税收抵免的可退还性。

通往机会的校车？METCO自愿学校种族隔离终结计划对城市有色学生的影响

Elizabeth Setren #32864

Abstract: School assignment policies are a key lever to increase access to high performing schools and to promote racial and socioeconomic integration. For over 50 years, the Metropolitan Council for Educational Opportunity (METCO) has bussed students of color from Boston, Massachusetts to relatively wealthier and predominantly White suburbs. Using a combination of digitized historical records and administrative data, I analyze the short and long run effects of attending a high-performing suburban school for applicants to the METCO program. I compare those with and without offers to enroll in suburban schools. I use a two-stage least squares approach that utilizes the waitlist assignment priorities and controls for a rich set of characteristics from birth records and application data. Attending a suburban school boosts 10th grade Math and English test scores by 0.13 and 0.21 standard deviations respectively. The program reduces dropout rates by 75 percent and increases on-time high school graduation by 13 percentage points. The suburban schools increase four-year college aspirations by 17 percentage points and enrollment by 21 percentage points. Participation results in a 12 percentage point increase in four-year college graduation rates. Enrollment increases average earnings at age 35 by $16,250. Evidence of tracking to lower performing classes in the suburban schools suggests these effects could be larger with access to more advanced coursework. Effects are strongest for students whose parents did not graduate college.

摘要：学校分配政策是增加进入高绩效学校的机会并促进种族和社会经济融合的重要杠杆。超过50年来，大都会教育机会委员会（METCO）将来自马萨诸塞州波士顿的有色学生送往相对富裕且主要为白人居住的郊区。通过结合数字化的历史记录和行政数据，我分析了申请METCO计划的学生就读高绩效郊区学校的短期和长期影响。我比较了那些获得和未获得郊区学校录取机会的学生。我使用了两阶段最小二乘法（2SLS），该方法利用了候补名单的分配优先级，并控制了来自出生记录和申请数据的一系列丰富特征。就读郊区学校使10年级数学和英语考试成绩分别提高了0.13和0.21个标准差。该计划将辍学率降低了75%，并使按时高中毕业的比例增加了13个百分点。郊区学校使四年制大学的升学意愿增加了17个百分点，入学率增加了21个百分点。参与该计划使四年制大学的毕业率提高了12个百分点。入学还使35岁时的平均收入增加了16,250美元。在郊区学校中，学生被分配到表现较差的班级的证据表明，如果有机会参加更高级的课程，这些效果可能会更大。对于父母没有大学毕业的学生，这些效果最为显著。

税收与家庭决策：一个跨时期分析

Mary Ann Bronson, Daniel Haanwinckel, and Maurizio Mazzocco #32861

Abstract:  How do different income taxation systems affect household decisions and welfare? We answer this question by first documenting the strong labor supply disincentives for secondary earners of the U.S. tax system and by using variations from the Bush Tax Cuts to assess their effects on intra-household specialization. We then develop a lifecycle model incorporating labor supply, marriage and divorce decisions with limited commitment, household production, human capital accumulation, and assortative mating. After estimating and validating the model with various datasets, we evaluate four tax systems: a U.S.-like income-splitting system, an individual taxation system, a flexible general joint system, and an income-splitting system with secondary-earner deductions. We find that the individual taxation system provides higher welfare than income splitting but increases inequality. The general joint system offers the highest welfare but is complex to implement. The income-splitting system with a secondary-earner deduction improves welfare and reduces inequality while maintaining simplicity.

摘要：不同的所得税制度如何影响家庭决策和福利？我们通过首先记录美国税收制度对次级收入者的强烈劳动供给抑制作用，并使用布什减税措施的变化来评估其对家庭内部专业化的影响来回答这个问题。然后，我们开发了一个生命周期模型，该模型结合了有限承诺下的劳动供给、婚姻和离婚决策、家庭生产、人力资本积累以及择偶倾向。在利用各种数据集估计和验证模型后，我们评估了四种税收制度：类似美国的所得税分摊制度、个人所得税制度、灵活的一般联合税制，以及带有次级收入者扣除的所得税分摊制度。我们发现，个人所得税制度比所得税分摊制度提供更高的福利，但增加了不平等。一般联合税制提供了最高的福利，但实施起来较为复杂。带有次级收入者扣除的所得税分摊制度在保持简单性的同时，改善了福利并减少了不平等。

美国教师罢工的原因及其后果

Melissa Arnold Lyon, Matthew A. Kraft, and Matthew P. Steinberg #32862

Abstract:The U.S. has witnessed a resurgence of labor activism, with teachers at the forefront. We examine how teacher strikes affect compensation, working conditions, and productivity with an original dataset of 772 teacher strikes generating 48 million student days idle between 2007 and 2023. Using an event study framework, we find that, on average, strikes increase compensation by 8% and lower pupil-teacher ratios by 0.5 students, driven by new state revenues. We find little evidence of sizable impacts on student achievement up to five years post-strike, though strikes lasting 10 or more days decrease math achievement in the short-term.

摘要：美国经历了劳工运动的复兴，其中教师处于前沿。我们使用一个包含772次教师罢工的数据集进行研究，这些罢工在2007年至2023年间共导致了4800万个学生日的停课。通过事件研究框架，我们发现，罢工平均使教师薪酬增加了8%，并使师生比降低了0.5名学生，主要是由于新的州收入的推动。我们几乎没有发现罢工对学生成绩有显著影响的证据，即使在罢工后五年内也是如此，但持续10天或更长时间的罢工在短期内会降低数学成绩。

加密货币逃税

Tom G. Meling, Magne Mogstad, and Arnstein Vestre #32865

Abstract: We quantify the extent of crypto tax noncompliance and evasion, and assess the efficacy of alternative tax enforcement interventions. The context of the study is Norway. This context allows us to address key measurement challenges by combining de-anonymized crypto trading data with individual tax returns, survey data, and information from tax enforcement interventions. We find that crypto tax noncompliance is pervasive, even among investors trading on exchanges that share identifiable trading data with tax authorities. However, since most crypto investors owe little in crypto-related taxes, enforcement strategies need to be well-targeted or cheap for benefits to outweigh costs.

摘要：我们量化了加密货币税收不合规和逃税的程度，并评估了不同税收执法干预措施的有效性。研究的背景是在挪威，这一背景使我们能够通过将去匿名化的加密货币交易数据与个人税务申报、调查数据以及税收执法干预信息相结合来解决关键的测量挑战。我们发现，加密货币税收不合规现象普遍存在，即使在那些交易数据可以被税务机关识别的交易所上进行交易的投资者中也是如此。然而，由于大多数加密货币投资者在加密货币相关税收方面的欠税金额较少，执法策略需要有针对性或成本较低，才能使收益超过成本。

社会责任的政治化

Todd A. Gormley, Manish Jha, and Meng Wang #32869

Abstract: Institutional investors are less likely to support shareholder proposals involving environmental and social issues for firms headquartered in Republican-led states. The lower support concentrates in recent years, when politicians became more vocal about firms’ social responsibility activities, and among larger institutions and firms, which tend to attract more attention from politicians. Investor support also shifts within states following changes in their leadership. Support for such proposals is 10 percentage points lower in the same state when it is led by Republicans instead of Democrats. The findings suggest that state-level politics and the politicization of an issue impacts institutional investors’ votes.

摘要：机构投资者在支持涉及环境和社会问题的股东提案时，对总部位于共和党领导的州的公司支持率较低。这种支持率的下降集中在最近几年，当时政治家们对公司的社会责任活动变得更加直言不讳，且这种现象在较大规模的机构和公司中更为明显，因为它们往往更容易引起政治家的关注。在州领导层发生变化后，投资者的支持率也会在同一州内发生转变。当州由共和党领导而非民主党领导时，对此类提案的支持率降低了10个百分点。这些发现表明，州级政治和议题的政治化影响了机构投资者的投票行为。

往期精选：

      重磅：学术财经•学术笔记全汇总

重磅：学术财经全球价值链专题学术笔记大汇总（附下载链接失效学术笔记推文）

重磅| 基金申请内部学习和交流

【学术笔记·第37篇】风险和全球供应链：我们知道什么和我们需要知道什么

【学术笔记·第36篇】各有所长：全球供应链风险敞口（Exposure）测度

【学术笔记·第35篇】日本生产者价格指数理论与实证：最终需求-中间需求加总系统

【学术笔记·第34篇】北美自由贸易的贸易和福利影响估计

【学术笔记 第33篇】 英属印度时期铁路：交通基础设施的影响评估（AER）

【学术笔记 第32篇】 技术、地理和贸易(经典EK模型）

【学术笔记 第31篇】2018年贸易战对美国物价和福利的影响

【学术笔记 第30篇】全球价值链和国家部门层面实际有效汇率