者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（9.16-9.22）共发布 36 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送最后 11 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
气候资本家
Niels Joachim Gormsen, Kilian Huber, and Sangmin Simon Oh #32933
Abstract: Firms' perceived cost of green capital has decreased since the rise of sustainable investing. Green and brown firms perceived their cost of capital to be the same before 2016, but after the post-2016 surge in sustainable investing, green firms perceived their cost of capital to be on average 1 percentage point lower. This difference has widened as sustainable investing has intensified. Within some of the largest energy and utility firms, managers have started applying a lower cost of capital to greener divisions. The changes in the perceived cost of green capital incentivize cross-firm and within-firm reallocation of capital toward greener investments.
摘要：自可持续投资兴起以来，企业对绿色资本的感知成本有所下降。绿色企业和棕色企业在2016年之前对资本成本的感知相同，但在2016年之后的可持续投资激增后，绿色企业平均认为其资本成本比棕色企业低1个百分点。随着可持续投资的加剧，这一差距进一步扩大。在一些最大的能源和公用事业公司中，管理者已经开始对更环保的部门采用较低的资本成本。绿色资本成本的变化激励了跨企业及企业内部资本向绿色投资的重新分配。
通过宏观经济模型的视角看气候变化
Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Kenneth Gillingham, and Simon Scheidegger #32963
Abstract: There is a rapidly advancing literature on the macroeconomics of climate change. This review focuses on developments in the construction and solution of structural integrated assessment models (IAMs), highlighting the marriage of state-of-the-art natural science with general equilibrium theory. We discuss challenges in solving dynamic stochastic IAMs with sharp nonlinearities, multiple regions, and multiple sources of risk. Key innovations in deep learning and other machine learning approaches overcome many computational challenges and enhance the accuracy and relevance of policy findings. We conclude with an overview of recent applications of IAMs and key policy insights.
摘要：关于气候变化宏观经济学的文献正在迅速发展。本文综述了结构性综合评估模型（IAMs）的构建和求解方面的最新进展，特别强调了最先进的自然科学与一般均衡理论的结合。我们讨论了在解决具有明显非线性、多地区和多重风险来源的动态随机IAM时所面临的挑战。深度学习和其他机器学习方法的关键创新克服了许多计算难题，并提高了政策研究的准确性和相关性。最后，我们概述了IAM的最新应用及其关键的政策启示。
包容性教学：识别课堂中的社会孤立
Sule Alan, Michela Carlana, and Marinella Leone #32954
Abstract: We evaluate an intervention designed to increase teachers’ awareness of social isolation by providing them with their own students’ social network and information on developmental risks associated with social exclusion. Using friendship data and incentive-compatible measures of antisocial and prosocial behavior, we find that the intervention reduces social isolation and antisocial behavior without improving prosocial behavior. The reduction in antisocial behavior leads to better economic outcomes in treated classrooms, measured by average payoffs and the Gini coefficient. Our findings highlight the personal and communal benefits of alleviating social exclusion and antisocial peer relationships in schools.
摘要：我们评估了一项旨在提高教师对社会孤立意识的干预措施，该措施为教师提供了其学生的社交网络以及与社会排斥相关的成长风险信息。通过使用友谊数据和具有激励兼容性的反社会和亲社会行为测量方法，我们发现该干预减少了社会孤立和反社会行为，但并未显著改善亲社会行为。反社会行为的减少在干预的课堂中带来了更好的经济结果，通过平均收益和基尼系数衡量。我们的研究结果突出了在学校中减轻社会排斥和反社会同伴关系所带来的个人和集体收益。
去中心化金融（DeFi）中介中的信息与市场力量
Pablo D. Azar, Adrian Casillas, and Maryam Farboodi #32949
Abstract: This paper considers the “DeFi intermediation chain”—the market structure that underlies the creation and distribution of ETH, the native cryptocurrency of Ethereum—to examine how information asymmetry shapes intermediation rents. We argue that using proof-of-stake blockchain technology in DeFi leads to a novel limit to arbitrage, arising from the tension between arbitrageurs' privacy needs and blockchain transparency. Using a new dataset which distinguishes private and public transactions in Ethereum, we find that a 1% increase in private information advantage leads to a 1.4% increase in intermediaries' profit share. We develop a dynamic bargaining model that predicts information market power stems exclusively from participants' private information advantage. Our analysis illustrates how blockchain technology can sustain arbitrage opportunities despite low entry barriers.
摘要：本文研究了“去中心化金融（DeFi）中介链”——以太坊（Ethereum）原生加密货币ETH的创建和分发所依赖的市场结构，探讨了信息不对称如何塑造中介利润。我们认为，在DeFi中使用权益证明（proof-of-stake）区块链技术导致了一种新的套利限制，这源于套利者的隐私需求与区块链透明性之间的紧张关系。通过一个能够区分以太坊私有交易和公共交易的新数据集，我们发现，私人信息优势每增加1%，中介的利润份额就增加1.4%。我们开发了一个动态谈判模型，该模型预测信息市场力量完全源自参与者的私人信息优势。我们的分析表明，即使准入门槛较低，区块链技术仍能维持套利机会。
揭开盖子的地狱：美国污染最严重城市中的种族隔离与环境公平
H. Spencer Banzhaf, William Mathews, and Randall Walsh #32950
Abstract: This study examines the relationship between racial segregation and environmental equity in Pittsburgh from 1910 to 1940. Utilizing newly digitized historical data on the spatial distribution of air pollution in what was likely America's most polluted city, we analyze how racial disparities in exposure to air pollution evolved during this period of heightening segregation. Our findings reveal that black residents experienced significantly higher levels of pollution compared to their white counterparts, and this disparity increased over time. We identify within-city moves as a critical factor exacerbating this inequity, with black movers facing increased pollution exposure. We also provide evidence of the capitalization of air pollution into housing markets. Taken as a whole, our results underscore the importance of considering environmental factors in discussions of racial and economic inequalities.
摘要：本研究考察了1910年至1940年间匹兹堡的种族隔离与环境公平之间的关系。通过利用新数字化的历史数据，分析了美国可能是污染最严重的城市中空气污染的空间分布，我们研究了在种族隔离加剧的时期，空气污染暴露的种族差异如何演变。研究结果表明，黑人居民所经历的污染水平显著高于白人居民，并且这种差距随着时间的推移不断扩大。我们发现城市内迁移是加剧这种不平等的关键因素，黑人迁徙者面临更多的污染暴露。此外，我们还提供了空气污染在住房市场中的资本化证据。总体来看，研究结果强调了在讨论种族和经济不平等问题时，考虑环境因素的重要性。
记录链接及其延展中的数据隐私
Shurong Lin and Eric Kolaczyk #32940
Abstract: In a data-driven world, two prominent research problems are record linkage and data privacy, among others. Record linkage is essential for improving decision-making by integrating information of the same entities from different sources. On the other hand, data privacy research seeks to balance the need to extract accurate insights from data with the imperative to protect the privacy of the entities involved. Inevitably, data privacy issues arise in the context of record linkage. This article identifies two complementary aspects at the intersection of these two fields: (1) how to ensure privacy during record linkage and (2) how to mitigate privacy risks when releasing the analysis results after record linkage. We specifically discuss privacy-preserving record linkage, differentially private regression, and related topics.
摘要：在一个以数据为驱动的世界中，记录链接和数据隐私是两个突出的研究问题。记录链接通过整合来自不同来源的相同实体信息，对改进决策至关重要。而数据隐私研究则旨在平衡从数据中提取准确见解的需求与保护涉及实体隐私的必要性。不可避免地，数据隐私问题在记录链接的背景下会出现。本文识别了这两个领域交叉处的两个互补方面：（1）如何在记录链接过程中确保隐私，（2）在记录链接后发布分析结果时如何减轻隐私风险。我们特别讨论了隐私保护的记录链接、差分隐私回归等相关话题。
社会地位、经济发展与女性劳动参与（或不参与）
Kaivan Munshi and Swapnil Singh #32946
Abstract: This research provides a status-based explanation for the persistent increase in female labor force non-participation (FLFNP) that often accompanies economic development. This explanation is based on the idea that households or ethnic groups in developing economies can signal their wealth, and thereby increase their social status, by withdrawing their women from the labor force. If the value of social status or the willingness to bear the signaling cost is increasing with economic development, then this would explain the persistent increase in FLFNP. To provide empirical support for this argument, we utilize two independent sources of exogenous variation—across Indian districts in the cross-section and within districts over time—to establish that status considerations determine rural FLFNP. Our status-based model, which is used to derive the preceding tests, is able to match the increase in rural Indian FLFNP that motivates our analysis. Counterfactual simulations of the estimated model indicate that conventional policy prescriptions, such as a reduction in the cost of female education, could {\em raise} FLFNP by increasing potential household incomes and, hence, the willingness to compete for social status. The steep increase in female education in recent decades could paradoxically have increased FLFNP in India even further.
摘要：本研究提出了一种基于社会地位的解释，来说明伴随经济发展出现的女性劳动参与率（FLFNP）持续下降的现象。该解释基于这样一个观点：在发展中经济体中，家庭或族群可以通过让女性退出劳动力市场来展示其财富，从而提升其社会地位。如果社会地位的价值或承担信号成本的意愿随着经济发展而增加，这将解释FLFNP的持续上升。为支持这一论点，我们利用了两个独立的外生变异来源——在印度各地区的横截面数据和随时间变化的数据——以证明地位考虑因素决定了农村地区的女性劳动参与率。我们使用的基于地位的模型能够解释推动我们分析的印度农村FLFNP的增长。该模型的反事实模拟表明，传统政策建议（如降低女性教育成本）可能会提高FLFNP，因为这会增加家庭的潜在收入，从而增强其在社会地位竞争中的意愿。近年来女性教育的快速增长，反而可能使印度的FLFNP进一步增加，这是一种似乎自相矛盾的现象。
政府采购的最优融资
Andrew B. Abel and Stavros Panageas #32961
Abstract: We characterize a planner's optimal allocation of consumption and capital in an overlapping generations model with exogenous government purchases, privately-observed idiosyncratic shocks to the depreciation rate of capital, and a proportional cost of reversing investment to transform used capital to consumption. We show how a package of various taxes and government bonds can finance government purchases and support the same balanced growth path as in the planner's optimum. The optimal tax rate on capital income implements the planner's optimal (but incomplete) sharing of idiosyncratic depreciation risks, while respecting the private nature of these risks.
摘要：我们研究了在一个具有外生政府采购、资本折旧率受到私人观察的个体冲击以及资本转换为消费时需承担比例成本的重叠世代模型中，计划者对消费和资本的最优分配。我们展示了一系列不同税收和政府债券的组合如何为政府采购提供融资，并支持与计划者最优方案相同的平衡增长路径。对资本收入的最优税率实现了计划者对个体折旧风险的最优（但不完全）分担，同时尊重这些风险的私人性质。
21世纪的最低工资
Arindrajit Dube and Attila S. Lindner #32878
Abstract: This chapter surveys the literature on the impact of minimum wages on low-wage labor markets. We describe and critically review the empirical methods in the new minimum wage literature, particularly those leveraging quasi-experimental variation. We provide a quantitative overview of the most recent evidence on the employment and wage effects of the policy, while also exploring emerging research on its impact on other margins, including amenities, other inputs (such as capital and high-skilled workers), firm entry and exit, output prices and demand, profits, and productivity. This approach allows us to present a comprehensive picture of how minimum wage policies affect firms, workers, and labor markets. We also review the evidence on the policy’s impact on wage inequality and income distribution. Finally, we discuss how these effects can vary depending on the economic context and the level of a country’s development.
摘要：本章综述了最低工资对低薪劳动力市场影响的相关文献。我们描述并批判性地回顾了新最低工资文献中的实证方法，特别是那些利用准实验变异的方法。我们提供了关于该政策对就业和工资影响的最新定量概述，同时探讨了其对其他方面的影响，包括福利、其他投入（如资本和高技能工人）、企业进入与退出、产品价格与需求、利润和生产率等。通过这种方法，我们展现了最低工资政策如何影响企业、工人和劳动力市场的全貌。我们还回顾了该政策对工资不平等和收入分配的影响。最后，我们讨论了这些影响如何根据经济环境和国家的发展水平而有所不同。
通胀预期与加密货币投资
Lin William Cong, Pulak Ghosh, Jiasun Li, and Qihong Ruan #32945
Abstract: Using proprietary data from the predominant cryptocurrency exchange in India together with the country's Household Inflation Expectations Survey, we document a significantly positive association between inflation expectations and individual cryptocurrency purchases. Higher inflation expectations are also associated with more new investors in cryptocurrencies. We investigate investment heterogeneity in multiple dimensions, and find the effect to be concentrated in Bitcoin (BTC) and Tether (USDT) trading. The results are robust after controlling for speculative demand captured by surveys of investors' expected cryptocurrency returns, and admit causal interpretations as confirmed using multiple instrumental variables. Our findings provide direct evidence that households already adopt cryptocurrencies for inflation hedging, which in turn rationalizes their high adoption in developing countries without a globally dominant currency.
摘要：我们利用来自印度主要加密货币交易所的专有数据，以及该国的家庭通胀预期调查，记录了通胀预期与个人加密货币购买之间显著的正相关关系。更高的通胀预期也与更多新的加密货币投资者相关联。我们从多个维度研究了投资的异质性，发现这一影响主要集中在比特币（BTC）和泰达币（USDT）的交易中。即使在控制了通过投资者预期加密货币回报的调查所捕捉的投机需求后，结果依然稳健，并通过使用多个工具变量确认了因果解释。我们的研究结果直接证明，家庭已经将加密货币作为对冲通胀的工具，这也解释了在没有全球主导货币的发展中国家中，加密货币的高接受度。
永续期货定价
Damien Ackerer, Julien Hugonnier, and Urban Jermann #32936
Abstract: Perpetual futures are contracts without expiration date in which the anchoring of the futures price to the spot price is ensured by periodic funding payments from long to short. We derive explicit expressions for the no-arbitrage price of various perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse, and quantos futures in both discrete and continuous-time. In particular, we show that the futures price is given by the risk-neutral expectation of the spot sampled at a random time that reflects the intensity of the price anchoring. Furthermore, we identify funding specifications that guarantee the coincidence of futures and spot prices, and show that for such specifications perpetual futures contracts can be replicated by dynamic trading in primitive securities.
摘要：永续期货是一种没有到期日的合约，其中期货价格与现货价格的锚定通过多头向空头的定期资金支付来确保。我们推导了各种永续合约的无套利定价的显式表达式，包括线性、反向和量化期货的离散时间和连续时间模型。特别是，我们展示了期货价格是现货在随机时间点的风险中性期望，这一随机时间反映了价格锚定的强度。此外，我们识别了能够保证期货价格与现货价格一致的资金支付机制，并证明在这种机制下，永续期货合约可以通过在基础证券中的动态交易进行复制。
往期精选：
