编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（9.2-9.8）共发布 22 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送前 8 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
Conviction, Incarceration, and Recidivism: Understanding the Revolving Door
定罪、监禁与再犯：理解循环的牢门
John Eric Humphries, Aurelie Ouss, Kamelia Stavreva, Megan T. Stevenson, and Winnie van Dijk #32894
Abstract:Noncarceral conviction is a common outcome of criminal court cases: for every individual incarcerated, there are approximately three who are recently convicted but not sentenced to prison or jail. We develop an empirical framework for studying the consequences of noncarceral conviction by extending the binary-treatment judge IV framework to settings with multiple treatments. We outline assumptions under which widely-used 2SLS regressions recover margin-specific treatment effects, relate these assumptions to models of judge decision-making, and derive an expression that provides intuition about the direction and magnitude of asymptotic bias when they are not met. Under the identifying assumptions, we find that noncarceral conviction (relative to dismissal) leads to a large and long-lasting increase in recidivism for felony defendants in Virginia. In contrast, incarceration relative to noncarceral conviction leads to a short-run reduction in recidivism, consistent with incapacitation. While the identifying assumptions include a strong restriction on judge decision-making, we argue that any bias resulting from its failure is unlikely to change our qualitative conclusions. Lastly, we introduce an alternative empirical strategy, and find that it yields similar estimates. Collectively, these results suggest that noncarceral felony conviction is an important and potentially overlooked driver of recidivism.
摘要：非监禁定罪是刑事案件常见的结果：对于每一个被监禁的个体，大约有三个人最近被定罪但未被判处监禁。我们通过将二元处理法官工具变量(IV)框架扩展到多种处理情境中，发展了一种研究非监禁定罪后果的实证框架。我们概述了在什么假设下广泛使用的两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)回归可以得出特定边际的处理效果，将这些假设与法官决策模型联系起来，并推导出当这些假设不成立时，用于直观理解渐近偏差方向和幅度的表达式。在识别假设下，我们发现对于弗吉尼亚州的重罪被告人，相对于撤诉，非监禁定罪会显著且长期地增加再犯率。相反，相对于非监禁定罪，监禁会导致再犯率在短期内下降，这与抑制作用是一致的。虽然识别假设包括对法官决策的严格限制，但我们认为这些假设失效所产生的偏差不太可能改变我们的定性结论。最后，我们引入了一种替代的实证策略，发现其产生的估计值与前者相似。这些结果共同表明，非监禁重罪定罪是一个重要且可能被忽视的再犯驱动因素。
Cash Bail and Trial Outcomes in an Early Twentieth-Century Southern Police Court
二十世纪初南方警察法院的现金保释和审判结果
Howard Bodenhorn #32887
Abstract: Studies of modern misdemeanor adjudication find that courts set bail higher than is required to reasonably assure that nonviolent defendants who pose no immediate threat to the community will appear for trial. Some defendants languish in jail for extended periods during which time they lose income, employment, and the ability to provide an effective defense for themselves. This paper considers the downstream consequences of bail setting in an urban, southern police court in the 1910s. I find that defendants unwilling or unable to post cash bail were not more likely to be convicted or to be incarcerated than defendants who posted bail. Conditional on conviction, however, defendants who posted bail and returned for their hearings were about half as likely to serve time. Among those who served time, defendants who posted bail served just 6 percent as much time as defendants who did not post bail. The ability to post bail was correlated with unobserved income or wealth and I find evidence that defendants who did not post bail and served on the chain gang were employed in low-income jobs and likely faced a binding cash-in-advance constraint.
摘要：对现代轻罪审判的研究发现，法院设定的保释金额通常高于合理保证无暴力犯罪且对社区不构成直接威胁的被告出庭所需的金额。一些被告因无法支付保释金而在监狱中滞留很长时间，在此期间他们失去了收入、工作机会，并失去了为自己提供有效辩护的能力。本文探讨了1910年代南方城市警察法院中保释金设定的后续影响。我发现，不愿意或无法支付现金保释金的被告并不比那些支付了保释金的被告更容易被定罪或监禁。然而，在定罪的情况下，支付保释金并出庭的被告服刑的可能性约为未支付保释金的被告的一半。在那些服刑的人中，支付保释金的被告服刑时间仅为未支付保释金的被告的6%。支付保释金的能力与未观察到的收入或财富相关联，我发现证据表明，未支付保释金并被判处劳役的被告往往从事低收入工作，并可能面临现金预付款的约束。
Mental Health, Substance Use, and Child Maltreatment
心理健康、药物使用与儿童虐待
Mir M. Ali, Thanh Lu, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Angélica Meinhofer #32895
Abstract: Child maltreatment is a pressing concern in the United States, with more than four million children referred to child protective services in 2022. Reducing child maltreatment is a national health objective given the substantial, negative consequences for children who experience maltreatment, both in the short- and long-term. Parental mental health and substance use disorders are strongly associated with child maltreatment. In this study, we use administrative data over the period 2004 to 2021 to study the relationship between the number of mental health and substance use treatment centers per county and child maltreatment reports. Our findings provide evidence that better access to mental health and substance use treatment reduces child maltreatment reports. In particular, an 8% increase in the supply of treatment would reduce maltreatment reports by 1%. These findings suggest that recent and ongoing efforts by the federal government to expand mental health and substance use treatment availability may lead to reduced child maltreatment.
摘要：儿童虐待是美国亟待解决的问题，2022年有超过四百万名儿童被送交儿童保护服务机构。减少儿童虐待是国家健康目标，因为遭受虐待的儿童在短期和长期都会面临严重的负面后果。父母的心理健康问题和药物使用障碍与儿童虐待密切相关。在本研究中，我们利用2004年至2021年的行政数据，研究了每个县心理健康和药物使用治疗中心的数量与儿童虐待报告之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明，更好地获得心理健康和药物使用治疗可以减少儿童虐待报告。特别是，治疗资源增加8%将减少1%的虐待报告。这些发现表明，联邦政府最近和正在进行的扩大心理健康和药物使用治疗可用性的努力可能会导致儿童虐待的减少。
Exchange Rate Determination under Limits to CIP Arbitrage
有限度的利率平价套利下的汇率决定
Philippe Bacchetta, J. Scott Davis, and Eric van Wincoop #32876
Abstract:Recent theories of exchange rate determination have emphasized limited UIP arbitrage by international financial institutions. New regulations since 2008 have also lead to imperfect CIP arbitrage. We show that under limited CIP arbitrage the exchange rate and CIP deviation are jointly determined by equilibrium in the FX spot and swap markets. The model is used to investigate the impact of a wide range of financial shocks. The exchange rate is affected by a new set of financial shocks that operate through the swap market, which have no effect under perfect CIP arbitrage. More familiar financial shocks that impact the spot market have an amplified effect on the exchange rate as a result of their feedback to the swap market. Implications of the model are consistent with a broad range of evidence.
摘要：最近的汇率决定理论强调了国际金融机构有限的未覆盖利率平价（UIP）套利。自2008年以来的新法规也导致了不完全的利率平价（CIP）套利。我们表明，在有限的CIP套利下，汇率和CIP偏差由外汇现货市场和掉期市场的均衡共同决定。该模型用于研究各种金融冲击的影响。通过掉期市场运作的一类新的金融冲击会影响汇率，而在完全CIP套利的情况下，这类冲击对汇率没有影响。那些影响现货市场的熟悉的金融冲击，由于其对掉期市场的反馈，对汇率的影响被放大。模型的含义与广泛的证据一致。
How the World Became Rich by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin and Slouching Towards Utopia, by J. Bradford DeLong: A Review Essay
《世界如何变得富有》——Mark Koyama和Jared Rubin著，与《走向乌托邦的缓步前行》——J. Bradford DeLong著：一篇书评文章
Steven N. Durlauf #32873
Abstract:This essay provides a review of two important recent books on economic growth: How the World Became Rich by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubinand Slouching Towards Utopia, by J. Bradford DeLong. Each book is noteworthy for its erudition and breadth. I explore strengths and weaknesses of these books and make some proposals on new ways to conceptualize and study long run socioeconomic development. My discussion emphasizes the importance of contingency in determining long run inequalities across countries as well the potential for ideas from complexity theory to augment standard growth modelling.
摘要：本文对最近关于经济增长的两本重要著作进行了评论：《世界如何变得富有》由马克·小山（Mark Koyama）和贾里德·鲁宾（Jared Rubin）著，以及J. 布拉德福德·德隆（J. Bradford DeLong）著的《走向乌托邦的缓步前行》。每本书都以其博学和广泛的视角而值得注意。我探讨了这些书的优点和不足，并提出了一些关于如何以新的方式概念化和研究长期社会经济发展的建议。我的讨论强调了在决定国家间长期不平等方面偶然性的作用，以及复杂性理论的思想如何能够增强标准的增长模型。
衡量招聘推荐系统中的偏见：审计算法
Shuo Zhang and Peter J. Kuhn #32889
Abstract: We audit the job recommender algorithms used by four Chinese job boards by creating fictitious applicant profiles that differ only in their gender. Jobs recommended uniquely to the male and female profiles in a pair differ modestly in their observed characteristics, with female jobs advertising lower wages, requesting less experience, and coming from smaller firms. Much larger differences are observed in these ads’ language, however, with women’s jobs containing 0.58 standard deviations more stereotypically female content than men’s. Using our experimental design, we can conclude that these gender gaps are generated primarily by content-based matching algorithms that use the worker’s declared gender as a direct input. Action-based processes like item-based collaborative filtering and recruiters’ reactions to workers’ resumes contribute little to these gaps.
摘要：我们通过创建虚构的求职者档案来审核四个中国招聘网站使用的推荐算法，这些档案只在性别上有所不同。在为男性和女性档案分别推荐的职位中，其观察到的特征差异较小，女性职位通常薪资较低、要求的经验较少，并且来自规模较小的公司。然而，在这些职位广告的语言上却观察到更大的差异，女性职位的广告中包含的典型女性内容比男性职位多出0.58个标准差。通过我们的实验设计，我们可以得出结论，这些性别差距主要是由基于内容匹配的算法造成的，这些算法直接将求职者的性别作为输入。而基于行为的过程，比如基于项目的协同过滤和招聘人员对求职者简历的反应，对这些差距的影响则较小。
Neoclassical Growth Transition Dynamics with One-Sided Commitment
单边承诺下的新古典增长转型动态
Dirk Krueger, Fulin Li, and Harald Uhlig #32880
Abstract:This paper characterizes the transition dynamics of a continuous-time neoclassical production economy with capital accumulation in which households face idiosyncratic income risk and cannot commit to repay their debt. Therefore, even though a full set of contingent claims that pay out conditional on the realization of idiosyncratic shocks is available, the equilibrium features imperfect insurance and a non-degenerate cross-sectional consumption distribution. When household labor productivity takes two values, one of which is zero, and the utility function is logarithmic, we characterize the entire transition dynamics induced by unexpected technology shocks, including the evolution of the consumption distribution, in closed form. Thus, the model constitutes an analytically tractable alternative to the standard incomplete markets general equilibrium Aiyagari (1994) model by retaining its physical environment, but replacing the incomplete asset markets structure with one in which limits to consumption insurance emerge endogenously due to limited commitment.
摘要：本文描述了一个连续时间新古典生产经济的转型动态，其中包括资本积累，家庭面临个别收入风险且无法承诺偿还债务。因此，即使存在一整套基于个别冲击实现情况支付的或有索赔，均衡仍然表现出不完全保险和非退化的横截面消费分布。当家庭劳动生产率取两个值（其中一个为零）且效用函数为对数形式时，我们以闭式形式表征了由意外技术冲击引发的整个转型动态，包括消费分布的演变。因此，该模型在保持其物理环境的同时，取代了不完全资产市场结构，通过有限承诺导致的内生消费保险限制，构成了标准不完全市场一般均衡Aiyagari（1994）模型的一种解析上可处理的替代方案。
Electric Vehicles and the Energy Transition: Unintended Consequences of a Common Retail Rate Design
电动汽车与能源转型：一种常见零售费率设计的意外后果
Megan R. Bailey, David P. Brown, Erica Myers, Blake C. Shaffer, and Frank A. Wolak #32886
Abstract: The growth of electric vehicles (EVs) raises new challenges for electricity systems. We implement a field experiment to assess the effect of time-of-use (TOU) pricing and managed charging on EV charging behavior. We find that while TOU pricing is effective at shifting EV charging into off-peak hours, it unintentionally induces new and larger “shadow peaks” of simultaneous charging. These shadow peaks lead to greater exceedance of local capacity constraints and advance the need for distribution network upgrades. In contrast, centrally managed charging solves the coordination problem, reducing transformer capacity requirements, and is well-tolerated by consumers in our setting.
摘要：电动汽车（EV）的增长为电力系统带来了新的挑战。我们实施了一项实地实验，以评估分时电价（TOU）和管理充电对电动汽车充电行为的影响。研究发现，虽然分时电价有效地将电动汽车充电转移到非高峰时段，但它无意中引发了新的、更大规模的“影子峰值”——即同时充电的现象。这些影子峰值导致地方容量限制超标的情况增加，并加速了配电网络升级的需求。相比之下，集中管理的充电方式解决了协调问题，降低了变压器容量的需求，并且在我们的设定中，消费者对这种方式的接受度较高。
往期精选：
