编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（9.9-9.15）共发布 35 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送最后 12 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
Effective Regulation and Firm Compliance: The Case of German Privacy Policies
有效监管与企业合规：以德国隐私政策为例
Jacopo Gambato, Bernhard Ganglmair, and Julia K. Krämer #32913
Abstract: This chapter explores the interaction between the enforcement of and compliance with difficult-to-enforce rules in the context of data regulation. We focus on the effect of the introduction of the GDPR and its transparency principle on the readability of privacy policies for a large sample of German firms. Germany has a system of state-level data protection authorities. These data regulators enforce the same rules but face diverse funding situations, allowing for an ideal setting to study the role of a regulator's capacity in firms' compliance decisions. We find that while, on average, the GDPR lead to less readable policies, firms active in industries that have in the past received more regulatory scrutiny and those active in jurisdictions of better-funded data regulators exhibit a stronger compliance with the GDPR's readability requirement. These results exemplify a more general interaction between regulators' enforcement activity and firms' regulatory compliance.
摘要：本章探讨了在数据监管背景下，难以执行的规则的执行与合规之间的相互作用。我们重点关注《通用数据保护条例》（GDPR）及其透明度原则的引入对大量德国公司隐私政策可读性的影响。德国拥有州级数据保护机构，这些监管机构执行相同的规则，但面临不同的资金状况，这为研究监管能力在企业合规决策中的作用提供了理想环境。我们发现，虽然GDPR总体上导致隐私政策的可读性下降，但那些活跃于过去受到更多监管审查的行业以及位于资金较充足的监管机构管辖范围内的公司，对GDPR可读性要求的合规性更强。这些结果体现了监管机构的执法活动与企业合规行为之间更普遍的相互作用。
Invoicing Currency and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japanese Imports: A Panel VAR Analysis
日本进口中的开票货币与汇率传递效应：面板向量自回归分析
Taiyo Yoshimi, Uraku Yoshimoto, Takatoshi Ito, Kiyotaka Sato, Junko Shimizu, and Yushi Yoshida #32910
Abstract: This study utilizes the granular Japanese customs data from 2014 to 2020 to examine the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to Japanese import prices. It mainly focuses on the impact of the invoicing currency choice on ERPT. The ERPT elasticity in products invoiced in the exporter’s currency is greater than those invoiced in yen. In the full sample analysis, the ERPT elasticity was 0.75 for products invoiced in the exporter’s currency, compared to about 0.19 for yen-invoiced products. We find the same tendency for imports from two Asian powerhouses: China and Thailand. There is no significant difference in the ERPT elasticity between products invoiced in the exporter’s currency and those invoiced in a third currency (i.e., a currency other than yen or the exporter’s currency). In addition, an asymmetric pass-through is found, namely the ERPT during the appreciation phase of the yen is higher than during the depreciation phase. This finding is interpreted that foreign exporters strengthen their pricing-to-market behavior during the yen depreciation phase to maintain their market share.
摘要：本研究利用2014年至2020年的日本海关详细数据，考察了汇率传递效应（ERPT）对日本进口价格的影响，重点关注开票货币选择对ERPT的影响。研究发现，以出口国货币计价的产品的ERPT弹性大于以日元计价的产品。在全样本分析中，以出口国货币计价的产品的ERPT弹性为0.75，而以日元计价的产品约为0.19。对于来自中国和泰国这两个亚洲强国的进口产品，研究也发现了相同的趋势。在以第三方货币（即非日元或出口国货币）计价的产品与以出口国货币计价的产品之间，ERPT弹性没有显著差异。此外，研究还发现了不对称的传递效应，即在日元升值阶段的ERPT高于日元贬值阶段。此发现可以解释为，外国产品出口商在日元贬值阶段通过加强市场定价行为，以维持其市场份额。
Business Failures by Branch of Business in the United States, 1895 to 1935: A Statistical History
1895至1935年美国各行业的商业倒闭：统计历史
Gary Richardson, Marco Del Angel, and Michael Gou #32928
Abstract: Dun’s Review began publishing monthly data on bankruptcies by branch of business during the 1890s. Those series evolved through many iterations. This essay reconstructs the series from 1895 to 1935 and discusses how it can be used for economic analysis.
摘要：《Dun’s Review》在1890年代开始按行业发布每月破产数据。这些数据系列经过了多次演变。本文重建了1895年至1935年的数据系列，并讨论了其在经济分析中的应用方法。
The Realities Of Disclosure Risks In The Age Of Dark Patterns And Big Data
黑暗模式与大数据时代的披露风险现实
Ramon Abraham A. Sarmiento #32926
Abstract: This paper explores the realities of disclosure risks in the current big data landscape, examining implications for individuals, society, and the evolving ethical landscape. One these realities is pervasive use of dark patterns in data collection. Dark patterns are user interfaces crafted to trick users into doing things against their self-interest such as compromising their privacy. The has sparked significant ethical and legal debates on balancing confidentiality & privacy obligations with the need for precise research data. Thus, this paper seeks to shed light on the legal and ethical dilemmas of these disclosure risks arising from the intersection of data privacy, statistical data usage, and the employment of dark patterns, such as the possible insufficiency of existing data protection measures and their possible obsolesce in the age of big data.
摘要：本文探讨了当前大数据环境下披露风险的现实，分析了对个人、社会以及不断演变的伦理格局的影响。其中一个现实是数据收集中广泛使用的“黑暗模式”。黑暗模式是指设计精心的用户界面，旨在诱使用户做出违背自身利益的行为，例如妥协他们的隐私。这引发了关于在保障机密性与隐私义务和精确研究数据需求之间平衡的重大伦理和法律讨论。因此，本文旨在阐明这些披露风险在数据隐私、统计数据使用和黑暗模式交织下引发的法律和伦理困境，例如现有数据保护措施在大数据时代可能存在的不足和过时。
Federal Pandemic Relief and Academic Recovery
联邦疫情救济与学术恢复
Dan C. Dewey, Erin M. Fahle, Thomas J. Kane, Sean F. Reardon, and Douglas O. Staiger #32897
Abstract: We measure the effect of district use of federal pandemic relief during the 2022-23 school year for a sample of more than 5000 districts in 29 states. We rely on several plausibly exogenous sources of variation in federal grants: differences in state Title I funding formulas, estimation error in Census local area poverty rates and differences in eligibility for federal Title I and subsidized lunch eligibility. We find that each $1000 in spending per student was associated with a .0086 SD improvement in math and a .0049 SD improvement in reading. Both are consistent with a recent meta-analysis of spending impacts by Jackson and Mackevicius (2023). As a placebo test, we find no relationship between federal dollars that were not yet spent during the 2022-23 year. We also find similar results using synthetic control group methods to compare high-poverty districts with high and low amounts of federal aid, but with similar trends in achievement through 2022. Because the federal aid was targeted at higher poverty districts, we find the federal dollars not only contributed to the recovery, but also helped narrow the gaps in achievement which had widened during the pandemic.
摘要：我们衡量了2022-23学年期间联邦疫情救济资金在超过29个州的5000多个学区中的使用效果。我们依赖几种看似外生的联邦拨款差异来源：州一级的Title I资金分配公式差异、人口普查中地方贫困率估算误差以及Title I和免费午餐资格的差异。研究发现，每名学生额外支出1000美元与数学成绩提高0.0086标准差（SD）和阅读成绩提高0.0049标准差相关。两者的结果与Jackson和Mackevicius（2023）的支出影响元分析一致。作为安慰剂测试，我们发现2022-23学年尚未使用的联邦资金与成绩没有关联。通过使用合成控制组方法，比较高贫困地区中获得高额和低额联邦援助的学区，我们得到了相似的结果，尤其是在2022年前的成绩趋势相似的情况下。由于联邦援助主要面向高贫困地区，我们发现这些资金不仅促进了学术恢复，还帮助缩小了疫情期间扩大的学业差距。
What’s Across the Border? Re-Evaluating the Cross-Border Evidence on Minimum Wage Effects
边境的另一边是什么？重新评估最低工资效应的跨境证据
Priyaranjan Jha, David Neumark, and Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez #32901
Abstract: Dube, Lester, and Reich (2010) argue that state-level minimum wage variation correlated with economic shocks generates spurious evidence that higher minimum wages reduce employment. Using minimum wage variation within contiguous county pairs sharing a state border, they find no relationship between minimum wages and employment in the U.S. restaurant industry. Using the same research design, we show that this result is overturned if we use instead multi-state commuting zones, which provide superior definitions of local economic areas. These contrasting results are explained by a positive bias in the county-pair specification when using pairs formed by counties from different commuting zones.
摘要：Dube、Lester 和 Reich（2010）认为，州级最低工资的变化与经济冲击相关，从而产生了虚假的证据，表明更高的最低工资减少了就业。通过使用共享州边界的相邻县对的最低工资变化，他们发现最低工资与美国餐饮业的就业之间没有关系。我们采用相同的研究设计，但使用多州通勤区替代县对，结果显示这一结论被推翻，因为多州通勤区提供了更优的地方经济区域定义。这些不同的结果可以通过县对模型中的正向偏差解释，即当县对来自不同的通勤区时，偏差更为明显。
The Nonlinear Effects of Air Pollution on Health: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke
空气污染对健康的非线性影响：来自野火烟雾的证据
Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Eric Zou #32924
Abstract: We estimate how acute air pollution exposure from wildfire smoke impacts human health in the U.S., allowing for nonlinear effects. Wildfire smoke is pervasive and produces air quality shocks of varying intensity, depending on wind patterns and plume thickness. Using administrative Medicare records for 2007–2019, we estimate that wildfire smoke accounts for 18% of ambient PM2.5 concentrations, 0.42% of deaths, and 0.69% of emergency room visits among adults aged 65 and over. Smaller pollution shocks have outsized health impacts, indicating significant health benefits from improving air quality, even in areas meeting current regulatory standards.
摘要：我们估计了美国野火烟雾造成的急性空气污染对人类健康的影响，允许存在非线性效应。野火烟雾广泛存在，并根据风向和烟柱厚度产生不同强度的空气质量冲击。通过使用2007-2019年的Medicare行政记录，我们估算出野火烟雾占环境PM2.5浓度的18%，占65岁及以上成年人死亡的0.42%，以及急诊就诊的0.69%。较小的污染冲击对健康有着超出预期的影响，表明即使在达到当前监管标准的地区，改善空气质量仍能带来显著的健康效益。
An Anatomy of Firms’ Political Speech
企业政治言论剖析
Pablo Ottonello, Wenting Song, and Sebastian Sotelo #32923
Abstract: We study the distribution of political speech across U.S. firms. We develop a measure of political engagement based on firms’ communications (earnings calls, regulatory filings, and social media), by training a large language model to identify statements that contain political opinions. Using these data, we document five facts about firms’ political engagement. (1) Political engagement is rare among firms. (2) Political engagement is concentrated among large firms. (3) Firms tend to specialize in specific topics and outlets. (4) Large firms tend to engage in a wider set of topics and outlets. (5) The 2020 surge in firms’ political engagement was associated with an increase in the engagement of medium-sized firms and a change in the mix of political topics.
摘要：我们研究了美国企业政治言论的分布情况。通过训练一个大型语言模型来识别包含政治观点的陈述，我们基于企业的沟通（如收益电话会议、监管文件和社交媒体）开发了一种衡量政治参与度的方法。利用这些数据，我们记录了关于企业政治参与的五个事实：(1) 企业的政治参与相对稀少；(2) 政治参与主要集中在大企业中；(3) 企业倾向于专注于特定的主题和平台；(4) 大企业往往涉及更多的主题和平台；(5) 2020年企业政治参与的激增伴随着中型企业参与度的增加以及政治话题组合的变化。
The Complexities of Differential Privacy for Survey Data
具有未观察到的处理效应异质性的工具变量
Magne Mogstad and Alexander Torgovitsky #32927
Abstract: This chapter synthesizes and critically reviews the modern instrumental variables (IV) literature that allows for unobserved heterogeneity in treatment effects (UHTE). We start by discussing why UHTE is often an essential aspect of IV applications in economics and we explain the conceptual challenges raised by allowing for it. Then we review and survey two general strategies for incorporating UHTE. The first strategy is to continue to use linear IV estimators designed for classical constant (homogeneous) treatment effect models, acknowledge their likely misspecification, and attempt to reverse engineer an attractive interpretation in the presence of UHTE. This strategy commonly leads to interpretations of linear IV that involve local average treatment effects (LATEs). We review the various ways in which the use and justification of LATE interpretations have expanded and contracted since their introduction in the early 1990s. The second strategy is to forward engineer new estimators that explicitly allow for UHTE. This strategy has its roots in the Gronau-Heckman selection model of the 1970s, ideas from which have been revitalized through marginal treatment effects (MTE) analysis. We discuss implementation of MTE methods and draw connections with related control function and bounding methods that are scattered throughout the econometric and causal inference literature.
摘要：本章综合并批判性地回顾了允许存在未观察到的处理效应异质性（UHTE）的现代工具变量（IV）文献。我们首先讨论了为什么UHTE通常是经济学IV应用中的一个重要方面，并解释了允许其存在所带来的概念性挑战。接着，我们回顾并考察了两种纳入UHTE的一般策略。第一种策略是继续使用为经典的常数（同质）处理效应模型设计的线性IV估计，承认其可能存在的误设，并在UHTE存在的情况下尝试逆向推导出一种合理的解释。这种策略通常引出涉及局部平均处理效应（LATE）的线性IV解释。我们回顾了自20世纪90年代初LATE引入以来，其使用和解释的各种扩展与收缩方式。第二种策略是前瞻性地设计新的估计方法，明确允许UHTE。这一策略根植于20世纪70年代的Gronau-Heckman选择模型，这些想法通过边际处理效应（MTE）分析得到了重新关注。我们讨论了MTE方法的实施，并将其与分布在计量经济学和因果推断文献中的相关控制函数和边界方法联系起来。
Adapting to Misspecification
适应模型误设
Timothy Armstrong, Patrick M. Kline, and Liyang Sun #32906
Abstract: Empirical research typically involves a robustness-efficiency tradeoff. A researcher seeking to estimate a scalar parameter can invoke strong assumptions to motivate a restricted estimator that is precise but may be heavily biased, or they can relax some of these assumptions to motivate a more robust, but variable, unrestricted estimator. When a bound on the bias of the restricted estimator is available, it is optimal to shrink the unrestricted estimator towards the restricted estimator. For settings where a bound on the bias of the restricted estimator is unknown, we propose adaptive estimators that minimize the percentage increase in worst case risk relative to an oracle that knows the bound. We show that adaptive estimators solve a weighted convex minimax problem and provide lookup tables facilitating their rapid computation. Revisiting some well known empirical studies where questions of model specification arise, we examine the advantages of adapting to—rather than testing for—misspecification.
摘要：实证研究通常涉及稳健性与效率之间的权衡。研究人员在估计标量参数时，可以通过强假设来使用受限估计器，这种估计器精确但可能存在严重偏差；或者，他们可以放松一些假设，使用更稳健但方差更大的非受限估计器。当受限估计器的偏差上限已知时，将非受限估计器向受限估计器缩小是最优的。对于无法确定受限估计器偏差上限的情况，我们提出了一种自适应估计器，它可以最小化相对于已知上限的理想估计器的最坏情况下风险增加的百分比。我们展示了自适应估计器能够解决加权凸极小极大问题，并提供了便捷的查表工具以加快其计算速度。通过重新审视一些涉及模型设定问题的知名实证研究，我们探讨了适应误设而非测试误设的优势。
An Anatomy of Currency Strategies: The Role of Emerging Markets
货币策略剖析：新兴市场的角色
Mikhail Chernov, Magnus Dahlquist, and Lars A. Lochstoer #32900
Abstract: We show that a small set of emerging markets with floating exchange rates expand the investment frontier substantially relative to G10 currencies. The frontier is characterized by an out-of-sample mean-variance efficient portfolio that prices G10- and emerging markets-based trading strategies unconditionally as well as conditionally. Our approach reveals that returns to prominent trading strategies are largely driven by factors that do not command a risk premium. After real-time hedging of such unpriced risks, the Sharpe ratios of these strategies increase substantially, providing new benchmarks for currency pricing models. For instance, the Sharpe ratio of the carry strategy increases from 0.71 to 1.29. The unpriced risks are related to geographically-based currency factors, while the priced risk that drives currency risk premiums is related to aggregate consumption exposure.
摘要：我们展示了与G10货币相比，拥有浮动汇率的小部分新兴市场显著扩展了投资前沿。该投资前沿由一个样本外的均值-方差有效组合特征所定义，该组合能够无条件和有条件地为基于G10和新兴市场的交易策略定价。我们的研究方法揭示，许多著名交易策略的回报主要由不要求风险溢价的因素驱动。经过实时对这些未定价风险进行对冲后，这些策略的夏普比率显著提升，为货币定价模型提供了新的基准。例如，套息交易策略的夏普比率从0.71上升到1.29。这些未定价的风险与地理因素相关，而推动货币风险溢价的定价风险与整体消费暴露相关。
Businesses and Borrowing during the Roaring ‘20s and at the Onset of the Great Depression
咆哮的20年代与大萧条初期的企业与借贷
Gary Richardson and Marco Del Angel #32918
Abstract: Which firms relied on commercial banks for credit and which firms did not at the onset of the Great Depression would seem to be an important question given the vast literature discussing banking distress in the United States during the 1930s. The question, however, has not been answered. This essay addresses that issue by analyzing data from an Internal Revenue Service publication, Statistics of Income. The hitherto unexplored data reveals that small firms in all industries borrowed heavily from commercial banks and relied on them for credit necessary to fund ongoing operations. The largest firms in most sectors deposited more in banks than they borrowed from them. Sectors whose firms depended most on commercial banks for credit were wholesaling, retailing, services, and the processing of agricultural products. In contrast, nearly half of economic activity in mining and construction, the majority of output in manufacturing, and the preponderance of firms in transportation operated independent of commercial banks.
摘要：在讨论20世纪30年代美国银行业困境的广泛文献中，一个重要的问题是：在大萧条初期，哪些公司依赖商业银行的信贷，哪些公司没有依赖。然而，这个问题尚未得到解答。本文通过分析美国国税局发布的《收入统计》中的数据，探讨了这一问题。这些此前未被充分研究的数据揭示出，各行业的小型企业大量向商业银行借款，并依赖银行提供的信贷来维持日常运营。相比之下，大多数行业中的大型企业在银行的存款超过其借款。最依赖商业银行信贷的行业包括批发业、零售业、服务业和农产品加工行业。相反，采矿和建筑业中近一半的经济活动、制造业的大部分产出以及运输行业的大多数公司不依赖商业银行运营。
往期精选：
