动态电价的效率

Andrew J. Hinchberger, Mark R. Jacobsen, Christopher R. Knittel, James M. Sallee, and Arthur A. van Benthem #32995

Abstract: The marginal cost of electricity fluctuates hour-by-hour, yet retail customers typically face flat prices. Using data from all seven US wholesale markets and a new method to evaluate alternative rates set in advance that accounts for equilibrium price effects, we estimate efficiency gains from time-varying price schedules that better align price with cost. We have three main results. First, time-of-use rates and critical-peak pricing, the two most common time-varying rate plans, each correct about 10% of mispricing. Second, complex rate structures based on historical prices often backfire. Third, real-time pricing with price ceilings can capture most potential efficiency gains while limiting customer risk.

摘要：电力的边际成本每小时波动，但零售客户通常面临固定价格。利用美国所有七个批发市场的数据和一种新的方法来评估事先设定的替代费率（该方法考虑了均衡价格效应），我们估算了通过与成本更好匹配的时间变化定价计划所带来的效率提升。我们有三个主要结果。首先，"分时电价"和"关键峰值定价"这两种最常见的时间变化费率计划各自修正了约10%的错误定价。其次，基于历史价格的复杂费率结构往往适得其反。第三，带有价格上限的"实时定价"能够捕捉到大部分潜在的效率收益，同时限制了客户风险。

带有转换成本的需求的非参数估计：以习惯性品牌忠诚为例

Xinyao Kong, Jean-Pierre H. Dubé, and Øystein Daljord #32994

Abstract: We study habitual brand loyalty, one of the earliest empirically-studied forms of switching costs and a classic source of structural state-dependence in consumer demand. Auxiliary instruments and economically-motivated restrictions can tighten nonparametric bounds on the extent of brand loyalty in choice panel data. We also prove that the canonical dynamic discrete-choice model, nested in our nonparametric framework, has “built-in” exclusion restrictions that semiparametrically identify the discount factor, in general, and point identify it for standard parameterizations of switching costs. Case studies of several large consumer goods categories show that brand loyalty accounts for at least 10.8% but no more than 72.2% of the observed choices across categories studied. In some categories, it accounts for over 90% of observed repeat-purchase behavior. Consumers are found to be forward-looking, but more impatient than would be implied by the real rate of interest.

摘要：我们研究了习惯性品牌忠诚，这是转换成本中最早被实证研究的形式之一，也是消费者需求中经典的结构性状态依赖来源。辅助工具变量和基于经济动机的限制可以在选择面板数据中收紧品牌忠诚程度的非参数界限。我们还证明了嵌套在我们非参数框架中的经典动态离散选择模型具有“内置”的排除限制，这在一般情况下半参数识别了贴现因子，并在转换成本的标准参数设定下对其进行点识别。对多个大型消费品类别的案例研究表明，品牌忠诚在所研究类别中的选择中至少占10.8%，但不超过72.2%。在某些类别中，品牌忠诚占据了超过90%的重复购买行为。研究发现，消费者具有前瞻性，但其耐心程度低于实际利率所暗示的水平。

企业和宏观经济中的资本-技能互补性

Giuseppe Berlingieri, Filippo Boeri, Danial Lashkari, and Jonathan Vogel #33000

Abstract: We study capital-skill complementarity in a multi-sector framework featuring firm-specific, multi-factor production functions and allowing for firm-specific factor-price wedges. We characterize the elasticity of the skill premium to the price of capital equipment in terms of firm-level elasticities of substitution across factors, elasticities of substitution across firms and sectors, and factor intensities. Using French data, we provide credible identification of these firm-level elasticities. Combining these elements we offer the first identification of aggregate capital-skill complementarity that allows for arbitrary trends in the unobservable skill-bias of productivity at the firm, industry, and aggregate levels. We find an economically and statistically significant degree of aggregate capital-skill complementarity, but this force alone is insufficient to generate the full increase in the relative demand for high-skilled workers observed in the data. There is a substantial role for skill-augmenting technical change not embodied in capital equipment.

摘要：我们在一个多部门框架下研究了资本-技能互补性，该框架具有企业特定的多要素生产函数，并允许存在企业特定的要素价格楔子。我们通过企业层面要素间替代弹性、企业与部门间的替代弹性以及要素强度，描述了技能溢价对资本设备价格的弹性。利用法国数据，我们对这些企业层面的替代弹性进行了可靠识别。结合这些因素，我们首次识别出宏观资本-技能互补性，同时允许企业、行业和整体层面生产率的技能偏差表现出任意趋势。研究发现，宏观资本-技能互补性在经济上和统计上都具有显著性，但这一因素单独不足以解释数据中观察到的对高技能工人相对需求的全部增长。技术进步中存在着显著的技能增强因素，而这种因素并未体现在资本设备中。

估计关税变动对地区福利的影响：以美国为例

Robert C. Feenstra and Chang Hong #33007

Abstract: We propose an empirical method using a translog expenditure function to estimate the regional welfare impact of changes in import tariffs, and we apply this method to the United States. Tariff revenue is assumed to be distributed on a per-capita basis, so states with greater production will experience a welfare gain from tariffs on those products (due to rising producer surplus) while those with little production will lose (due to falling consumer surplus). Over 2002-17, we find that 28 states benefitted from reduced tariffs, with national welfare gains of $5.8 billion or $50 per household in 2017. These national gains were eliminated by the tariff increases after 2017, with national losses of $57 per household in 2019 and rising to $103 per household in 2022, but 25 states still gained. These estimates of the national losses from tariff increases are lower than found in other studies for the 2017-19 period, due to this study incorporating product exclusions that reduced the tariffs on certain products and also due to differences in the methods of calculation.

摘要：我们提出了一种使用跨对数支出函数的实证方法来估计进口关税变动对地区福利的影响，并将该方法应用于美国。假设关税收入按人均分配，生产量较大的州会因为关税导致的生产者剩余增加而获得福利，而生产较少的州则会因消费者剩余下降而遭受损失。在2002年至2017年期间，我们发现28个州从关税降低中受益，全国福利增长了58亿美元，相当于2017年每户家庭增加了50美元的福利。2017年后的关税上调使这些全国性的收益消失，2019年全国每户家庭损失57美元，到2022年上升至每户103美元，但仍有25个州受益。与其他研究相比，本研究对2017-2019年期间关税上调所造成的全国性损失估算较低，原因在于本研究考虑了对某些产品的关税豁免，以及计算方法的不同。

弥合差距：跨区域传输对排放和可靠性的影响

Audun Botterud, Christopher R. Knittel, John Parsons, Juan Ramon Senga, and Drew Story #32996

Abstract: The substantial decline in the cost of wind and solar generation over recent decades has significantly altered the energy landscape. With these technologies becoming economically viable, even without stringent decarbonization policies, the role of interregional transmission has become increasingly important. This study examines the value of interregional transmission to the U.S. grid under current policies and deep decarbonization scenarios. By utilizing the GenX capacity expansion model, we evaluate the proposed BIG WIRES Act, which mandates a minimum interregional transfer capability requirement. Our analysis focuses on four key areas: interregional transmission builds and grid characteristics, electricity system cost savings, grid reliability during extreme weather events, and climate benefits. Results show that the Act can lead to a 68% increase in interregional transfer capability under current policies, resulting in annual system cost savings of $487 million and a 43.33 Mmt reduction in CO2 emissions. The benefits are even greater under a 95% CO2 reduction mandate. The study underscores the importance of interregional transmission in optimizing renewable energy use, enhancing grid reliability, and achieving cost savings and emissions reductions.

摘要：近年来，风能和太阳能发电成本的大幅下降显著改变了能源格局。即使在没有严格的脱碳政策的情况下，这些技术也已具备经济可行性，因此跨区域传输的重要性日益增加。本研究考察了跨区域传输对美国电网在当前政策和深度脱碳情景下的价值。通过使用GenX容量扩展模型，我们评估了《BIG WIRES法案》的提议，该法案要求跨区域的最小传输能力。我们的分析集中在四个关键领域：跨区域传输建设和电网特征、电力系统成本节约、极端天气事件期间的电网可靠性以及气候效益。结果表明，在当前政策下，该法案可以使跨区域传输能力增加68%，每年节省系统成本4.87亿美元，并减少4333万吨二氧化碳排放。在95%二氧化碳减排目标下，收益更为显著。研究强调了跨区域传输在优化可再生能源使用、提高电网可靠性、实现成本节约和减少排放方面的重要性。

跨境购物：瑞士的证据及福利影响

Ariel Burstein, Sarah M. Lein, and Jonathan Vogel #33006

Abstract: Consumers access foreign goods by purchasing them domestically or shopping abroad. We present new facts on cross-border shopping by Swiss households showing, for example, that prices of identical products are lower in neighboring countries, cross-border shopping shares fall with distance to the border, and price gaps and cross-border shopping shares rose following the 2015 Swiss Franc appreciation. We use a simple model of cross-border shopping to quantify how variation across space in cross-border shopping results in heterogeneous changes in cost-of-living in response to changes in international prices such as the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation and the 2020 Covid-19-related closing of the border.

摘要：消费者通过在国内购买外国商品或跨境购物来获取外国商品。我们提供了瑞士家庭跨境购物的新数据，显示出一些现象，例如，相同商品在邻国的价格更低，跨境购物的比例随着与边境距离的增加而下降，并且在2015年瑞士法郎升值后，价格差距和跨境购物的比例都有所上升。我们使用一个简单的跨境购物模型来量化跨境购物在不同地区的差异如何导致生活成本的异质性变化，特别是在应对国际价格变化（如2015年瑞士法郎升值）和2020年与新冠疫情相关的边境关闭时。

志愿者困境中的福利

Marco Battaglini and Thomas R. Palfrey #32999

Abstract: We study the volunteer’s dilemma in environments with heterogeneous preferences and private information. We characterize the efficiency properties of equilibrium, which is a departure from all the previous literature that focuses only on the probability of group success. While the probability of success may be non-monotonic in the size of the group, we show that per-capita welfare is always increasing for all types, strictly for sufficiently high types. As group size increases, the expected utility of every type converges to the expected utility of the type with the lowest possible cost, which is the same expected utility when there is no free rider problem, i.e., when there is only a single player in the game and that player has the lowest possible cost.

摘要：我们研究了在存在异质性偏好和私人信息的环境下的志愿者困境。我们描述了均衡的效率属性，这不同于以往所有只关注群体成功概率的文献。尽管成功的概率可能随着群体规模的增加而非单调变化，但我们表明，人均福利对所有类型的人都是递增的，尤其对于成本较低的类型是严格递增的。随着群体规模的增加，每种类型的预期效用趋向于最低成本类型的预期效用，这与没有搭便车问题的情形相同，即在游戏中只有一个参与者并且该参与者拥有最低成本时的预期效用相同。

职业的代际传递：来自美国陆军的启示

Kyle Greenberg, Matthew Gudgeon, Adam Isen, Corbin L. Miller, and Richard W. Patterson #33009

Abstract: This paper estimates causal intergenerational occupation transmission in the military using discontinuities in parents' eligibility for service from the Armed Forces Qualification Test. A parent's enlistment in the Army increases their children’s military service propensity by between 58% and 110%. Intergenerational occupational transmission rates vary by race and sex---they are highest for demographic groups whose parents gained the most economically from service and for same-sex parent-child pairs. Our findings provide new evidence on the mechanisms driving intergenerational occupation correlations and show that intergenerational transmission is an important channel for getting under-represented groups into high-quality occupations.

摘要：本文通过利用武装部队资格测试中父母服役资格的差异，估算了军队中职业代际传递的因果效应。父母参军会使其子女服兵役的倾向增加58%至110%。职业代际传递率因种族和性别而异——对于那些因服役获得最大经济收益的群体以及同性别的父母-子女对，这种传递率最高。我们的研究为推动职业代际相关性的机制提供了新的证据，并表明代际传递是使代表性不足群体进入高质量职业的重要渠道。

交易商间价格分散与中介能力

Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, and Shuo Liu #32998

Abstract: Intermediation capacity varies across dealers, and as a result, misallocation of credit risk reduces the risk-bearing capacity of the dealer sector and increases effective market-level risk aversion. When the efficient reallocation of credit risk within the dealer sector is impaired, interdealer price dispersion increases. Empirically, when interdealer price dispersion increases, bond prices decrease. Interdealer price dispersion explains a substantial portion of bond yield spread changes, the cross-section of bond returns, and the changes in the basis between bond spread and fair-value spreads. We conclude interdealer frictions reduce the risk-bearing capacity of intermediaries and are crucial for intermediary bond pricing.

摘要：交易商的中介能力各不相同，导致信贷风险的错误配置降低了交易商部门的风险承受能力，并增加了市场层面的有效风险厌恶。当交易商部门内信贷风险的高效再分配受阻时，交易商间价格分散加剧。实证结果显示，当交易商间价格分散增加时，债券价格下降。交易商间价格分散解释了债券收益率利差变化、债券回报的横截面差异，以及债券利差与公允价值利差之间基差的变化。我们得出结论，交易商间的摩擦降低了中介机构的风险承受能力，并对中介机构的债券定价起着关键作用。

股市、汇率与全球金融周期中的货币中心性

Hélène Rey, Vania Stavrakeva, and Jenny Tang #33003

Abstract: The paper explores empirically the tight links between exchange rates and the global network of equity holdings. Exchange rates can be expressed in terms of “equity net currency supplies”, i.e. local currency stock market capitalization minus equity holdings, denominated in investors’ currencies, as well as elasticities, reflecting the “centrality” of currencies in global equity markets. The observed components of our exchange rate decomposition account for, on average, 95% of the monthly variation of 28 bilateral currency crosses vis-à-vis the USD and 98% vis-à-vis the EUR. We use the decomposition to elucidate the unique role of the USD in transmitting risk aversion and U.S. macroeconomic news throughout the global equity network. Our findings contribute towards explaining global financial cycles and “risk-on”/“risk-off” episodes.

摘要：本文实证探讨了汇率与全球股权持有网络之间的紧密联系。汇率可以用“股票净货币供应量”来表达，即本地货币的股票市场市值减去以投资者货币计价的股权持有量，并结合反映货币在全球股市中“中心性”的弹性系数。我们汇率分解的观测组件平均解释了28个相对于美元的双边货币对月度波动的95%，以及相对于欧元的98%。我们利用该分解来阐明美元在全球股权网络中传递风险厌恶情绪和美国宏观经济新闻中的独特作用。我们的研究结果有助于解释全球金融周期以及“风险偏好”（risk-on）和“风险厌恶”（risk-off）现象。

往期精选：

      重磅：学术财经•学术笔记全汇总

重磅：学术财经全球价值链专题学术笔记大汇总（附下载链接失效学术笔记推文）

重磅| 基金申请内部学习和交流

【学术笔记·第37篇】风险和全球供应链：我们知道什么和我们需要知道什么

【学术笔记·第36篇】各有所长：全球供应链风险敞口（Exposure）测度

【学术笔记·第35篇】日本生产者价格指数理论与实证：最终需求-中间需求加总系统

【学术笔记·第34篇】北美自由贸易的贸易和福利影响估计

【学术笔记 第33篇】 英属印度时期铁路：交通基础设施的影响评估（AER）

【学术笔记 第32篇】 技术、地理和贸易(经典EK模型）

【学术笔记 第31篇】2018年贸易战对美国物价和福利的影响

【学术笔记 第30篇】全球价值链和国家部门层面实际有效汇率