编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（8.12-8.18）共发布 32 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送中间 11 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
Exchange Rate Models are Better than You Think, and Why They Didn't Work in the Old Days
汇率模型比你想象的要好，以及它们为何在过去不起作用
Charles Engel and Steve P.Y. Wu #32808
Abstract: Exchange-rate models fit very well for the U.S. dollar in the 21st century. A “standard” model that includes real interest rates and a measure of expected inflation for the U.S. and the foreign country, the U.S. comprehensive trade balance, and measures of global risk and liquidity demand is well-supported in the data for the U.S. against other G10 currencies. The monetary and non-monetary variables play equally important roles in explaining exchange rate movements. In the 1970s – early 1990s, the fit of the model was poor but the fit (as measured by t- and F-statistics, and R-squareds) has increased almost monotonically to the present day. We make the case that it is better monetary policy (inflation targeting) that has led to the improvement, as the scope for self-fulfilling expectations has disappeared. We provide a variety of evidence that links changes in monetary policy to the performance of the exchange-rate model.
摘要：21世纪的汇率模型对于美元的拟合度非常高。一个“标准”模型，包括美国和外国的实际利率、预期通胀指标、美国综合贸易余额、全球风险和流动性需求的衡量指标，在美国与其他G10国家货币之间的数据中得到了良好的支持。货币和非货币变量在解释汇率波动方面同样重要。在1970年代到1990年代初期，这一模型的拟合度较差，但拟合度（通过t检验、F检验和R平方值衡量）几乎呈现出单调递增的趋势，直至今日。我们认为，这是由于更好的货币政策（如通胀目标制）导致了这种改善，因为自我实现预期的空间已经消失。我们提供了各种证据，将货币政策的变化与汇率模型表现的改善联系起来。
Tax Incidence Anomalies
税负归宿异常
Youssef Benzarti #32819
Abstract: This paper reviews the literature on the incidence of consumption and labor taxes and focuses on the empirical results that show stark departures from the canonical model of tax incidence, which I refer to as anomalies. In particular, there is mounting evidence questioning three fundamental implications of the canonical model: (1) that statutory incidence is irrelevant for economic incidence, (2) that the relative magnitude of the demand and supply elasticities is a sufficient statistic for tax incidence, and (3) that incidence is symmetric for increases and decreases. I review this empirical evidence and draw implications for the canonical model’s relevance.
摘要：本文回顾了有关消费税和劳动税负归宿的文献，并重点关注那些与经典税负归宿模型显著不同的实证结果，我将其称为异常现象。具体而言，越来越多的证据质疑经典模型的三个基本假设：(1) 法定税负归宿与经济税负归宿无关；(2) 需求和供给弹性的相对大小是决定税负归宿的充分统计量；(3) 税负归宿对税率的上调和下调是对称的。我将回顾这些实证证据，并探讨这些异常现象对经典模型适用性的影响。
Neural Network Learning for Nonlinear Economies
神经网络学习在非线性经济中的应用
Julian Ashwin, Paul Beaudry, and Martin Ellison #32807
Abstract: Neural networks offer a promising tool for the analysis of nonlinear economies. In this paper, we derive conditions for the global stability of nonlinear rational expectations equilibria under neural network learning. We demonstrate the applicability of the conditions in analytical and numerical examples where the nonlinearity is caused by monetary policy targeting a range, rather than a specific value, of inflation. If shock persistence is high or there is inertia in the structure of the economy, then the only rational expectations equilibria that are learnable may involve inflation spending long periods outside its target range. Neural network learning is also useful for solving and selecting between multiple equilibria and steady states in other settings, such as when there is a zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate.
摘要：神经网络为分析非线性经济体提供了一种有前景的工具。在本文中，我们推导了在神经网络学习下，非线性理性预期均衡全球稳定性的条件。我们通过分析和数值实例展示了这些条件的适用性，其中非线性是由货币政策瞄准一个通胀区间而非特定值引起的。如果冲击的持续性较高或经济结构存在惯性，那么唯一可学习的理性预期均衡可能涉及通胀长期处于目标区间之外。神经网络学习在解决和选择多重均衡和稳态方面也非常有用，例如在名义利率存在零下限的情况下。
Ethnic Identity and Anti-Immigrant Sentiment: Evidence from Proposition 187
种族认同与反移民情绪：来自187号提案的证据
Francisca M. Antman and Brian Duncan #32818
Abstract: Political discourse has often stoked racial and ethnic divisions, raising the possibility that individuals’ self-reported racial and ethnic identities may change in response to an increasingly hostile environment. We shed light on this question by measuring the impacts of local support for California’s Proposition 187, one of the first and most well-known ballot measures widely seen to be anti-immigrant and anti-Latino, on individuals’ willingness to identify ethnically as Hispanic and specifically, Mexican. Linking data on self-reported ethnicity, ancestry, and parental place of birth with county-level voter support for Proposition 187, we show that individuals with stronger ties to Mexican ancestry or parentage are less likely to identify ethnically as Mexican in response to support for Proposition 187, just as individuals with weaker ties to Mexican ancestry are more likely to identify as Mexican. This is consistent with our predictions that anti-minority sentiment may drive individuals with more observable ties to a minority group to reduce their willingness to identify due to heightened fear of discrimination and hostility. At the same time, anti-minority sentiment may raise the salience of ethnicity and race and thus increase the willingness to identify as a minority for those with weaker observable ties, who are relatively more protected from adverse impacts. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to document a connection between political discourse and endogenous ethnic identity.
摘要：政治话语常常煽动种族和族裔分裂，导致个体的自我报告的种族和族裔认同可能会在日益敌对的环境中发生变化。我们通过研究加利福尼亚州的187号提案（Proposition 187）的地方支持对个体认同为西班牙裔，尤其是墨西哥裔的意愿的影响，探讨了这一问题。187号提案是最早且最知名的被广泛视为反移民和反拉丁裔的公投措施之一。我们将个体自报的族裔、祖先和父母出生地的数据与县级187号提案的支持率相结合，发现与墨西哥血统或父母出生地有更紧密联系的个体，在面对对187号提案的支持时，减少了认同为墨西哥裔的意愿，而与墨西哥血统联系较弱的个体则更可能认同为墨西哥裔。这与我们的预测一致：反少数族裔情绪可能会促使那些与少数族裔有更明显联系的个体减少认同的意愿，因为他们对歧视和敌意的恐惧增加。同时，反少数族裔情绪可能会提高种族和族裔的显著性，从而增加那些与少数族裔联系较弱、相对更受保护的个体认同为少数族裔的意愿。据我们所知，这是首篇记录政治话语与内生族裔认同之间联系的研究论文。
Positive Incentives: The Income Effect and The Optimal Regulation of Crime
正向激励：收入效应与犯罪的最优规制
W. Bentley MacLeod and Roman Rivera #32805
Abstract: Theories of crime in economics focus on the roles of deterrence and incapacitation in reducing criminal activity. In addition to deterrence, a growing body of empirical evidence has shown that both income support and employment subsidies can play a role in crime reduction. This paper extends the Becker-Ehrlich model to a standard labor supply model that includes the notion of a consumption need (Barzel and McDonald (1973)) highlights the role of substitution vs income effects when an individual chooses to engage in crime. Second, we show that whether the production of criminal activity is a substitute or a complement with the production of legitimate activity is central to the design of optimal policy. We find that both individual responsiveness to deterrence and optimal policy vary considerably with context, which is consistent with the large variation in the effect of deterrence on crime. Hence, optimal policy is a combination of deterrence, work subsidies and direct income transfers to the individual that vary with both income and location.
摘要：经济学中的犯罪理论主要关注威慑和无能力化在减少犯罪活动中的作用。除了威慑之外，越来越多的实证证据表明，收入支持和就业补贴也可以在减少犯罪方面发挥作用。本文将Becker-Ehrlich模型扩展到一个包含消费需求概念（Barzel和McDonald (1973)）的标准劳动供给模型，突出了当个人选择从事犯罪活动时替代效应与收入效应的作用。其次，我们展示了犯罪活动的生产是合法活动生产的替代品还是互补品，这一问题在设计最优政策时具有关键意义。我们发现，个体对威慑的响应性以及最优政策因情境而异，这与威慑对犯罪影响的巨大差异相一致。因此，最优政策应是威慑、工作补贴和直接收入转移相结合的方式，并根据收入和地点的不同进行调整。
Bilateral Economies of Scope
双边范围经济
Yao Amber Li, Sichuang Xu, Stephen Yeaple, and Tengyu Zhao #32803
Abstract: International transactions are costly because they require investments in logistics, contracts, and the acquisition of local institutional knowledge. We posit that a portion of the fixed costs of entering a specific export market can be used toward costs of acquiring imports from that same market, and vice versa. Using dis-aggregated transactions data for Chinese firms from 2000 to 2015, we document firm-level trading patterns that suggest such market-specific bilateral economies of scope. Using a structural model, we estimate that the simultaneous export and import in a given country reduces export and import fixed costs by over 41 and 37 percent, respectively.
摘要：国际交易是有成本的，因为它们需要在物流、合同以及获取当地制度知识方面进行投资。我们假设，进入特定出口市场的一部分固定成本可以用于从同一市场获取进口的成本，反之亦然。利用2000年至2015年中国企业的细化交易数据，我们记录了企业层面的贸易模式，这些模式表明存在市场特定的双边范围经济。通过结构模型的估计，我们发现，在一个特定国家同时进行出口和进口可以分别减少超过41%和37%的出口和进口固定成本。
Macro-Financial Implications of the Surging Global Demand (and Supply) of International Reserves
全球对国际储备需求（和供应）激增的宏观金融影响
Enrique G. Mendoza and Vincenzo Quadrini #32810
Abstract: Research has shown that the unilateral accumulation of international reserves by a country can improve its own macro-financial stability. However, we show that when many countries accumulate reserves, the induced general equilibrium effects weaken financial and macroeconomic stability, especially for countries that do not accumulate reserves. The issuance of public debt by advanced economies has the opposite effect. We derive these results from a two-region model where private defaultable debt has a productive use. Quantitative counterfactuals show that the surge in reserves (public debt) contributed to reduce (increase) world interest rates but also to increase (reduce) private leverage. This in turn increased (decreased) volatility in both emerging and advanced economies.
摘要：研究表明，一个国家单方面积累国际储备可以改善其自身的宏观金融稳定性。然而，我们发现，当多个国家同时积累储备时，所引发的一般均衡效应会削弱金融和宏观经济稳定性，尤其是对于那些不积累储备的国家。发达经济体发行的公共债务则产生相反的效果。我们从一个包含两大区域的模型中推导出这些结果，在该模型中，私人可违约债务具有生产性用途。定量反事实分析显示，储备的激增（公共债务的增加）有助于降低（提高）全球利率，但同时也增加（减少）了私人杠杆率。这反过来导致新兴经济体和发达经济体的波动性增加（减少）。
Urban roadway in America: the amount, extent, and value
美国城市道路：数量、范围及价值
Erick Guerra, Gilles Duranton, and Xinyu Ma #32824
Abstract: We predict the amount, share, and value of land dedicated to roadways within and across 316 US Primary Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Despite the amount and value of land dedicated to roadway, our study provides the first such estimate across a broad range of metropolitan areas. Our basic approach is to estimate roadway widths using a 10% sample of widths provided by the Highway Performance and Monitoring System and apply our estimates to the rest of the roadway system. Multiplying estimated widths by segment length and netting out double counting at intersections provide estimates of land area. We also match roadway segments and areas to existing land value estimates and satellite-based measures of urbanized land. We find that a little under a quarter of urbanized land—roughly the size of West Virginia—is dedicated to roadway. This land was worth around $4.1 trillion dollars in 2016 and had an annualized value that was higher than the total variable costs of the trucking sector and the total annual federal, state, and local expenditures on roadway. Conducting a back-of-the-envelope cost-benefit analysis, we found that the country likely has too much land dedicated to urban roads.
摘要：我们预测了在美国316个主要大都市统计区内外，专用于道路的土地的数量、比例和价值。尽管用于道路的土地在数量和价值上非常可观，但我们的研究是首次在广泛的大都市地区范围内进行此类估算。我们的基本方法是使用高速公路性能监测系统提供的10%样本估算道路宽度，并将这些估算值应用于其余的道路系统。通过将估算的宽度乘以道路段的长度，并扣除交叉路口的重复计算，来估算土地面积。我们还将道路段和区域与现有的土地价值估算以及基于卫星的城市化土地测量结果进行匹配。研究发现，略少于四分之一的城市化土地——大致相当于西弗吉尼亚州的面积——被用于道路。2016年，这些土地的价值约为4.1万亿美元，其年化价值高于卡车运输行业的总可变成本以及联邦、州和地方对道路的年度总支出。通过进行简略的成本效益分析，我们发现美国可能用于城市道路的土地过多。
Inefficient Labor Market Sorting
劳动力市场中的低效分配
Stephen Yeaple and Carsten Eckel #32797
Abstract: A growing empirical literature attributes much of the productivity advantages of large, "superstar" firms to their adoption of best practice management techniques that allow them to better identify and use talented workers. The reasons for the incomplete adoption of these "structured management practices" (SMPs) and their welfare implications are not well understood. This paper provides a positive and normative analysis of these issues in a theoretical framework in which SMPs induce sorting of talent across firms. Incomplete adoption arises because SMPs are costly and worker talent is in limited supply. In equilibrium there is excessive adoption of SMPs and too much sorting of talented workers into large firms. In this second-best environment, policy changes that favor large firms, such as trade liberalization, have the potential to lower welfare.
摘要：一份不断增长的实证文献将大型“明星”企业的生产力优势归因于它们采用的最佳实践管理技术，这些技术使它们能够更好地识别和使用有才华的员工。然而，对于这些“结构化管理实践”（SMPs）未被全面采用的原因及其福利影响，仍然缺乏深入理解。本文在一个理论框架下对这些问题进行了实证和规范分析，其中SMPs促使人才在企业之间进行分配。由于SMPs的成本较高且人才供应有限，未能全面采用SMPs的情况就出现了。在均衡状态下，SMPs的过度采用以及过多的才华横溢的员工向大型企业集中都是问题所在。在这种次优环境中，偏向大型企业的政策变化（如贸易自由化）可能会降低整体福利。
Unequal Uptake: Assessing Distributional Disparities in the Residential Solar Market
不平等的接受度：评估住宅太阳能市场中的分配差异
Jackson Dorsey and Derek C. Wolfson #32814
Abstract: We examine technology adoption and consumer welfare disparities across demographic groups using data from an online solar photovoltaic (PV) marketplace. Low-income households are 25% less likely to purchase solar through the platform and obtain 53% lower expected consumer surplus than high-income households. Moreover, Black and Hispanic households are relatively less likely to purchase solar through the platform and obtain lower consumer surplus than White and Asian households. We develop a method to decompose the drivers of consumer welfare disparities between demographic groups. Differences in demand fully account for the consumer surplus disparities between high- and low-income households and between White and Hispanic households. However, supply-side factors explain 37% of the consumer surplus gap between White and Black households. Black households get relatively fewer bids and face higher prices, and installers have higher implied costs to serve them. Lastly, we assess counterfactuals that offer targeted price discounts to certain demographic groups.
摘要：我们利用在线太阳能光伏（PV）市场的数据，研究了不同人口群体之间的技术采用和消费者福利差异。低收入家庭通过该平台购买太阳能的可能性比高收入家庭低25%，而预期的消费者盈余也比高收入家庭低53%。此外，黑人和西班牙裔家庭通过该平台购买太阳能的可能性相对较低，获得的消费者盈余也低于白人和亚裔家庭。我们开发了一种方法来分解人口群体之间消费者福利差异的驱动因素。需求差异完全解释了高收入和低收入家庭之间以及白人和西班牙裔家庭之间的消费者盈余差异。然而，供应方因素解释了白人和黑人家庭之间37%的消费者盈余差距。黑人家庭获得的报价相对较少，面临更高的价格，安装商为他们提供服务的隐含成本也更高。最后，我们评估了为某些人口群体提供有针对性的价格折扣的反事实情景。
Intrapersonal Utility Comparisons as Interpersonal Utility Comparisons: Welfare, Ambiguity, and Robustness in Behavioral Policy Problems
将个人效用比较作为人际效用比较：行为政策问题中的福利、模糊性与稳健性
Canishk Naik and Daniel Reck #32813
Abstract: We consider the optimal policy problem of a benevolent planner, who is uncertain about an individual's true preferences because of inconsistencies in revealed preferences across behavioral frames. We adapt theories of expected utility maximization and ambiguity aversion to characterize the planner's objective, which results in welfarist criteria similar to social welfare functions, with intrapersonal frames replacing interpersonal types. Under paternalistic risk aversion or ambiguity aversion, a policy is less desirable to the planner, holding all else fixed, when it leads to more disagreement about welfare from revealed preferences. We map some examples of behavioral models into our framework and describe how this notion of robustness plays out in applied settings.
摘要：我们考虑了一位仁慈的规划者的最优政策问题，他因为行为框架中的偏好表现不一致而无法确定个体的真实偏好。我们借鉴预期效用最大化和模糊规避理论来描述规划者的目标，这导致了一种类似于社会福利函数的福利主义标准，但以个人框架代替了人际类型。在父权主义风险规避或模糊规避下，当某项政策导致根据显露偏好对福利的分歧增加时，即使其他条件不变，该政策对规划者来说也会变得不那么理想。我们将一些行为模型映射到我们的框架中，并描述了这一稳健性概念在应用环境中的表现。
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