【顶刊速递】The Quarterly Journal of Economics《经济学季刊》：2024年8月期刊目录及摘要

The Quarterly Journal of Economics is the oldest professional journal of economics in the English language. Edited at Harvard University's Department of Economics, it covers all aspects of the field.

QJE is invaluable to professional and academic economists and students around the world.

《经济学季刊（QJE）》是英语中历史最悠久的专业经济学期刊。它由哈佛大学经济系编辑，涵盖了该领域的方方面面。QJE 对世界各地的专业和学术经济学家和学生来说都是无价的，是世界上历史最悠久且最具影响力的经济学期刊之一，与AER、JPE、RES、Econometrica合称经济学“五大刊”，点击文末“阅读原文”可跳转QJE期刊官网。

注：中文摘要为机翻内容，未完全校对。

文章目录

1.New Frontiers: The Origins and Content of New Work, 1940–2018  前沿：1940-2018年新工作的起源与内容
David Autor, Caroline Chin, Anna Salomons, Bryan Seegmiller

2.The Ant and the Grasshopper: Seasonality and the Invention of Agriculture  蚂蚁和蚱蜢：季节性与农业发明
Andrea Matranga

3.Worker Beliefs About Outside Options  工人对外部选择的看法
Simon Jäger, Christopher Roth, Nina Roussille, Benjamin Schoefer

4.The Role of the Ask Gap in Gender Pay Inequality  问答差距在性别薪酬不平等中的作用
Nina Roussille

5.Discrimination in Multiphase Systems: Evidence from Child Protection  多相系统中的歧视：儿童保护的证据
E Jason Baron, Joseph J Doyle, Jr, Natalia Emanuel, Peter Hull, Joseph Ryan

6.Identifying Prediction Mistakes in Observational Data  识别观察数据中的预测错误
Ashesh Rambachan

7.Digital Collateral  数字抵押品
Paul Gertler, Brett Green, Catherine Wolfram

8.The Mortgage Piggy Bank: Building Wealth Through Amortization  按揭储蓄罐：通过分期付款积累财富
Asaf Bernstein, Peter Koudijs

9.How the 1963 Equal Pay Act and 1964 Civil Rights Act Shaped the Gender Gap in Pay  1963年《同工同酬法》和1964年《民权法案》如何塑造两性薪酬差距
Martha J Bailey, Thomas Helgerman, Bryan A Stuart

10.Answering the Call of Automation: How the Labor Market Adjusted to Mechanizing Telephone Operation  响应自动化的召唤：劳动力市场如何适应电话操作机械化
James Feigenbaum, Daniel P Gross

11.Land Security and Mobility Frictions  土地安全与流动摩擦
Tasso Adamopoulos, Loren Brandt, Chaoran Chen, Diego Restuccia, Xiaoyun Wei

12.Understanding Markets with Socially Responsible Consumers  了解具有社会责任感消费者的市场
Marc Kaufmann, Peter Andre, Botond Kőszegi

中英摘要

Abstract: We answer three core questions about the hypothesized role of newly emerging job categories (“new work”) in counterbalancing the erosive effect of task-displacing automation on labor demand: what is the substantive content of new work, where does it come from, and what effect does it have on labor demand? We construct a novel database spanning eight decades of new job titles linked to U.S. Census microdata and to patent-based measures of occupations’ exposure to labor-augmenting and labor-automating innovations. The majority of current employment is in new job specialties introduced since 1940, but the locus of new-work creation has shifted from middle-paid production and clerical occupations over 1940–1980 to high-paid professional occupations and secondarily to low-paid services since 1980. New work emerges in response to technological innovations that complement the outputs of occupations and demand shocks that raise occupational demand. Innovations that automate tasks or reduce occupational demand slow new-work emergence. Although the flow of augmentation and automation innovations is positively correlated across occupations, the former boosts occupational labor demand while the latter depresses it. The demand-eroding effects of automation innovations have intensified in the past four decades while the demand-increasing effects of augmentation innovations have not.

我们回答了三个核心问题，即新出现的工作类别（"新工作"）在抵消任务替代自动化对劳动力需求的侵蚀作用方面的假设作用：新工作的实质内容是什么，从何而来，对劳动力需求有何影响？我们构建了一个新颖的数据库，该数据库涵盖了八十年来与美国人口普查微观数据相关联的新职称，并与基于专利的职业接触劳动改进和劳动自动化创新的衡量标准相关联。当前就业的大部分是自 1940 年以来引入的新工作专业，但新工作的创造地点已从 1940-1980 年间的中等收入生产和办事员职业转向高收入专业职业，其次是自 1980 年以来的低薪服务业。新工作的出现是对补充职业产出的技术创新和提高职业需求的需求冲击的回应。使工作自动化或减少职业需求的创新减缓了新工作的出现。虽然增强型创新和自动化创新在不同职业间的流动呈正相关，但前者会促进职业劳动力需求，而后者则会抑制劳动力需求。自动化创新对需求的侵蚀作用在过去四十年中不断加强，而增强型创新对需求的增加作用却没有加强。

Abstract: The Neolithic revolution saw the independent development of agriculture among at least seven unconnected hunter-gatherer populations. I propose that the rapid spread of agricultural techniques resulted from increased climatic seasonality causing hunter-gatherers to adopt a sedentary lifestyle and store food for the season of scarcity. Their newfound sedentary lifestyle and storage habits facilitated the invention of agriculture. I present a model and support it with global climate data and Neolithic adoption dates, showing that greater seasonality increased the likelihood of agriculture’s invention and its speed of adoption by neighbors. This study suggests that seasonality patterns played a dominant role in determining our species’ transition to farming.

在新石器时代革命中，至少有七个互不关联的狩猎采集人群独立发展了农业。我认为，农业技术的迅速传播是由于气候季节性的增强，导致狩猎采集者采取定居的生活方式，并为匮乏的季节储存食物。他们新发现的定居生活方式和储存习惯促进了农业的发明。我提出了一个模型，并用全球气候数据和新石器时代采用农业的日期来支持这个模型，表明季节性越强，农业发明的可能性就越大，被邻居采用的速度也越快。这项研究表明，季节性模式在决定人类向农耕过渡的过程中发挥了主导作用。

Abstract: Standard labor market models assume that workers hold accurate beliefs about the external wage distribution, and hence their outside options with other employers. We test this assumption by comparing German workers’ beliefs about outside options with objective benchmarks. First, we find that workers wrongly anchor their beliefs about outside options on their current wage: workers that would experience a 10% wage change if switching to their outside option only expect a 1% change. Second, workers in low-paying firms underestimate wages elsewhere. Third, in response to information about the wages of similar workers, respondents correct their beliefs about their outside options and change their job search and wage negotiation intentions. Finally, we analyze the consequences of anchoring in a simple equilibrium model. In the model, anchored beliefs keep overly pessimistic workers stuck in low-wage jobs, which gives rise to monopsony power and labor market segmentation.

标准的劳动力市场模型假定，工人对外部工资分配有准确的认识，因此他们对其他雇主的外部选择也有准确的认识。我们通过比较德国工人的外部选择信念与客观基准来检验这一假设。首先，我们发现工人错误地将其外部选择信念建立在其当前工资的基础上：如果工人转而选择其外部选择，他们的工资会有 10%的变化，但他们只期望有 1%的变化。第二，低薪企业的工人低估了其他地方的工资。第三，根据类似工人工资的信息，受访者会纠正他们对外部选择的看法，并改变他们的求职和工资谈判意向。最后，我们在一个简单的均衡模型中分析了锚定的后果。在该模型中，锚定信念会使过于悲观的工人被困在低工资的工作岗位上，从而产生垄断力量和劳动力市场分割。

Abstract: The gender ask gap measures the extent to which women ask for lower salaries than comparable men. This article studies its role in generating wage inequality, using novel data from an online recruitment platform for full-time engineering jobs: Hired.com. To use the platform, job candidates must post an ask salary, stating how much they want to make in their next job. Firms then apply to candidates by offering them a bid salary, solely based on the candidate’s résumé and ask salary. If the candidate is hired, a final salary is recorded. After adjusting for résumé characteristics, the ask gap is 2.9%, the bid gap is 2.2%, and the final offer gap is 1.4%. Further controlling for the ask salary explains the entirety of the residual gender gaps in bid and final salaries. To further provide evidence of the causal effect of the ask salary on the bid salary, I exploit an unanticipated change in how candidates were prompted to provide their ask. For some candidates in mid-2018, the answer box used to solicit the ask salary was changed from an empty field to an entry prefilled with the median bid salary for similar candidates. I find that this change drove the ask, bid, and final offer gaps to zero. In addition, women did not receive fewer bids or final offers than men did due to the change, suggesting they faced little penalty for demanding comparable wages.

性别要求差距衡量的是女性要求的薪酬低于同类男性的程度。本文利用来自全职工程工作在线招聘平台的新数据，研究了它在造成工资不平等中的作用：Hired.com。要使用该平台，求职者必须发布要求薪资，说明自己希望在下一份工作中赚多少钱。然后，企业会根据求职者的简历和要求薪资，向求职者提供出价薪资。如果应聘者被录用，则记录最终薪资。在对简历特征进行调整后，要价差距为 2.9%，出价差距为 2.2%，最终报价差距为 1.4%。进一步控制要约薪资可以解释竞聘薪资和最终薪资中残余的全部性别差距。为了进一步证明要求薪资对竞聘薪资的因果效应，我利用了候选人提供要求薪资的提示方式的意外变化。对于 2018 年年中的一些候选人来说，用于征询要求薪资的答案框从空栏变成了预填类似候选人投标薪资中位数的条目。我发现，这一变化使要求、出价和最终报价的差距为零。此外，女性收到的出价或最终录用通知并没有因为这一变化而比男性少，这表明她们在要求可比工资方面几乎没有受到任何惩罚。

Abstract: We develop empirical tools for studying discrimination in multiphase systems and apply them to the setting of foster care placement by child protective services. Leveraging the quasi-random assignment of two sets of decision-makers—initial hotline call screeners and subsequent investigators—we study how unwarranted racial disparities arise and propagate through this system. Using a sample of over 200,000 maltreatment allegations, we find that calls involving Black children are 55% more likely to result in foster care placement than calls involving white children with the same potential for future maltreatment in the home. Call screeners account for up to 19% of this unwarranted disparity, with the remainder due to investigators. Unwarranted disparity is concentrated in cases with potential for future maltreatment, suggesting that white children may be harmed by “underplacement” in high-risk situations.

我们开发了研究多阶段系统中歧视现象的实证工具，并将其应用于儿童保护服务机构的寄养安置工作中。利用对两组决策者——最初的热线电话筛选者和随后的调查人员——的准随机分配，我们研究了不必要的种族差异是如何通过该系统产生和传播的。通过对 200,000 多起虐待指控的抽样调查，我们发现，在未来家庭虐待可能性相同的情况下，涉及黑人儿童的电话导致寄养安置的可能性比涉及白人儿童的电话高出 55%。在这种无端的差异中，电话筛查人员最多占 19%，其余则是调查人员造成的。不必要的差异主要集中在未来可能发生虐待的案件中，这表明白人儿童可能会因高风险情况下的 "安置不足 "而受到伤害。

Abstract: Decision makers, such as doctors, judges, and managers, make consequential choices based on predictions of unknown outcomes. Do these decision makers make systematic prediction mistakes based on the available information? If so, in what ways are their predictions systematically biased? In this article, I characterize conditions under which systematic prediction mistakes can be identified in empirical settings such as hiring, medical diagnosis, and pretrial release. I derive a statistical test for whether the decision maker makes systematic prediction mistakes under these assumptions and provide methods for estimating the ways the decision maker’s predictions are systematically biased. I analyze the pretrial release decisions of judges in New York City, estimating that at least 20% of judges make systematic prediction mistakes about misconduct risk given defendant characteristics. Motivated by this analysis, I estimate the effects of replacing judges with algorithmic decision rules and find that replacing judges with algorithms where systematic prediction mistakes occur dominates the status quo.

医生、法官和经理等决策者会根据对未知结果的预测做出相应的选择。这些决策者是否会根据现有信息犯下系统性的预测错误？如果是，他们的预测在哪些方面存在系统性偏差？在本文中，我描述了在招聘、医疗诊断和审前释放等实证环境中可以识别系统预测错误的条件。我推导出了在这些假设条件下决策者是否会犯系统性预测错误的统计检验方法，并提供了估计决策者的预测是否存在系统性偏差的方法。我分析了纽约市法官的审前释放决定，估计至少有 20% 的法官在给定被告特征的情况下会对不当行为风险犯下系统性预测错误。受这一分析的启发，我估算了用算法决策规则取代法官的效果，并发现在出现系统性预测错误的情况下，用算法取代法官的效果优于现状。

Abstract: A new form of secured lending using “digital collateral” has recently emerged, most prominently in low- and middle-income countries. Digital collateral relies on lockout technology, which allows the lender to temporarily disable the flow value of the collateral to the borrower without physically repossessing it. We explore this new form of credit in a model and a field experiment using school-fee loans digitally secured with a solar home system. Securing a loan with digital collateral drastically reduced default rates (by 19 percentage points) and increased the lender’s rate of return (by 49 percentage points). Using a variant of the Karlan and Zinman (2009) methodology, we decompose the total effect on repayment and find that roughly two-thirds is attributable to moral hazard, and one-third to adverse selection. In addition, access to digitally secured school-fee loans significantly increased school enrollment and school-related expenditures without detrimental effects on households’ balance sheets.

最近出现了一种使用 "数字抵押 "的新型担保借贷，在中低收入国家最为突出。数字抵押品依靠锁定技术，允许贷款人在不实际收回抵押品的情况下，暂时切断抵押品对借款人的流通价值。我们在一个模型和一个实地实验中探索了这种新的信贷形式，使用了以太阳能住宅系统为数字抵押的学费贷款。用数字抵押品担保贷款大大降低了违约率（19 个百分点），提高了贷款人的回报率（49 个百分点）。使用 Karlan 和 Zinman（2009 年）的变体方法，我们分解了对还款的总体影响，发现大约三分之二归因于道德风险，三分之一归因于逆向选择。此外，获得有数字担保的学费贷款大大提高了入学率和与学校相关的支出，而不会对家庭的资产负债表产生不利影响。

Abstract: In 2013, the Dutch government mandated that new conforming mortgages must fully amortize. Within a difference-in-differences design, we estimate that the marginal wealth accumulation from amortization is close to one, even five years later. Households purchasing after the reform primarily cut consumption and leisure over other savings, leading to a rise in wealth. This holds if we use life events to instrument for the timing of home purchase. Estimates are similar for seemingly unconstrained households and movers, suggesting a broad applicability of our results. Consistent with a simple model, we find lower estimates for households that appear less financially sophisticated or willing to adjust short-term consumption. Mortgage amortization schedules are among the largest savings plans in the world, and our results highlight their critical importance for household wealth building and macroprudential policies.

2013 年，荷兰政府规定新的保值抵押贷款必须完全摊销。在差分设计中，我们估计摊销带来的边际财富积累接近于 1，甚至在五年后也是如此。改革后购房的家庭主要减少了消费和休闲，而不是其他储蓄，从而导致财富增加。如果我们使用生活事件作为购房时间的工具，则这一结论成立。对于看似不受约束的家庭和搬迁者的估计值相似，这表明我们的结果具有广泛的适用性。与简单模型一致的是，我们发现那些在经济上不太成熟或不愿意调整短期消费的家庭的估计值较低。按揭分期付款计划是世界上最大的储蓄计划之一，我们的研究结果凸显了其对家庭财富积累和宏观审慎政策的重要性。

Abstract: In the 1960s, two landmark statutes—the Equal Pay and Civil Rights Acts—targeted the long-standing practice of employment discrimination against U.S. women. For the next 15 years, the gender gap in median earnings among full-time, full-year workers changed little, leading many scholars to conclude that the legislation was ineffectual. This article revisits this conclusion using two research designs, which leverage (i) cross-state variation in preexisting state equal pay laws and (ii) variation in the 1960 gender gap across occupation-industry-state-group cells to capture differences in the legislation's incidence. Both designs suggest that federal antidiscrimination legislation led to striking gains in women's relative wages, which were concentrated among below-median wage earners. These wage gains offset preexisting labor market forces, which worked to depress women's relative pay growth, resulting in the apparent stability of the gender gap at the median and mean in the 1960s and 1970s. The data show little evidence of short-term changes in women's employment but suggest that firms reduced their hiring and promotion of women in the medium to long term. The historical record points to the key role of the Equal Pay Act in driving these changes.

20 世纪 60 年代，两部具有里程碑意义的法规——《同工同酬法》和《民权法案》——将矛头直指美国妇女长期以来遭受的就业歧视。在接下来的 15 年中，全职、全年工作者中收入中位数的性别差距变化不大，这让许多学者得出了立法无效的结论。本文利用两种研究设计重新审视了这一结论，即利用（i）各州原有同酬法律的跨州差异和（ii）1960 年各职业-行业-州-组单元性别差距的差异来捕捉立法发生率的差异。这两种设计都表明，联邦反歧视立法使妇女的相对工资有了显著提高，而这主要集中在中位数以下的工薪阶层。这些工资增长抵消了先前存在的劳动力市场力量，这些力量压低了妇女的相对工资增长，导致 20 世纪 60 年代和 70 年代中位数和平均值的性别差距明显稳定。数据显示，妇女就业短期变化的证据很少，但表明企业在中长期减少了对妇女的聘用和晋升。历史记录表明，《同工同酬法》在推动这些变化方面发挥了关键作用。

Abstract: In the early 1900s, telephone operation was among the most common jobs for American women, and telephone operators were ubiquitous. Between 1920 and 1940, AT&T undertook one of the largest automation investments in modern history, replacing operators with mechanical switching technology in over half of the U.S. telephone network. Using variation across U.S. cities in the timing of adoption, we study how this wave of automation affected the labor market for young women. Although automation eliminated most of these jobs, it did not reduce future cohorts’ overall employment: the decline in operators was counteracted by employment growth in middle-skill clerical jobs and lower-skill service jobs, including new categories of work. Using a new genealogy-based census-linking method, we show that incumbent telephone operators were most affected, and a decade later more likely to be in lower-paying occupations or no longer working.

20 世纪初，电话操作是美国妇女最常见的工作之一，电话接线员无处不在。1920 年至 1940 年间，美国电话电报公司（AT&T）进行了现代史上最大规模的自动化投资，在美国一半以上的电话网络中使用机械交换技术取代了接线员。利用美国各城市在采用时间上的差异，我们研究了这一自动化浪潮对年轻女性劳动力市场的影响。虽然自动化淘汰了其中的大部分工作，但并没有减少未来群体的总体就业率：中等技能文职工作和低技能服务工作（包括新的工作类别）的就业增长抵消了接线员的减少。利用一种新的基于家谱的人口普查链接方法，我们发现现任电话接线员受到的影响最大，十年后他们更有可能从事收入较低的职业或不再工作。

Abstract: Frictions that impede the mobility of workers across occupations and space are a prominent feature of developing countries. We disentangle the role of insecure property rights from other labor-mobility frictions for the reallocation of labor from agriculture to nonagriculture and from rural to urban areas. We combine rich household and individual-level panel data from China and an equilibrium quantitative framework featuring sorting of workers across locations and occupations. We explicitly model the farming household and the endogenous decisions of who operates the family farm and who potentially migrates, capturing an additional channel of selection in the household. We find that land insecurity has substantial negative effects on agricultural productivity and structural change, raising the share of rural households operating farms by over 40 percentage points and depressing agricultural productivity by more than 20%. Comparatively, these quantitative effects are as large as those from all residual labor-mobility frictions. We measure a sharp reduction in overall labor-mobility barriers over 2004–2018 in the Chinese economy, all accounted for by improved land security, consistent with reforms covering rural land in China during the period.

阻碍工人跨行业和跨空间流动的摩擦是发展中国家的一个显著特点。在劳动力从农业向非农业、从农村向城市的重新配置过程中，我们将无保障的产权与其他劳动力流动摩擦的作用区分开来。我们结合了中国丰富的家庭和个人层面的面板数据，以及一个以工人在不同地点和职业之间的分拣为特征的均衡定量框架。我们明确地模拟了农户以及谁经营家庭农场和谁可能迁移的内生决策，从而捕捉到家庭中的额外选择渠道。我们发现，土地不安全对农业生产率和结构变化产生了巨大的负面影响，使经营农场的农村家庭比例提高了 40 多个百分点，农业生产率下降了 20 多个百分点。相对而言，这些定量影响与所有剩余劳动力流动摩擦的影响一样大。我们测算出，2004-2018 年间中国经济中劳动力流动壁垒总体上急剧下降，其原因全部来自于土地保障的改善，这与这一时期中国农村土地的改革是一致的。

Abstract: Many consumers care about climate change and other externalities associated with their purchases. We analyze the behavior and market effects of such “socially responsible consumers” in three parts. First, we develop a flexible theoretical framework to study competitive equilibria with rational consequentialist consumers. In violation of price taking, equilibrium feedback nontrivially dampens the impact of a person’s consumption on aggregate consumption, undermining the motive to mitigate. This leads to a new type of market failure, where even consumers who fully “internalize the externality” overconsume externality-generating goods. At the same time, socially responsible consumers change the relative effectiveness of taxes, caps, and other policies in lowering the externality. Second, since consumer beliefs about and preferences over their market impacts play a crucial role in our framework, we investigate them empirically via a tailored survey. Consistent with our model, consumers are often consequentialist, and many believe that they have a dampened impact on aggregate consumption. Inconsistent with our model, however, we also find many respondents who expect to have a one-to-one impact on aggregate consumption. Third, therefore, we analyze how such “naive” consumers modify our theoretical conclusions. They consume less than rational consumers in a single-good economy, but may consume more in a multigood economy with cross-market spillovers. A mix of naive and rational consumers may yield the worst outcomes.

许多消费者关心气候变化以及与他们的购买行为相关的其他外部效应。我们从三部分分析这类 "有社会责任感的消费者 "的行为和市场效应。首先，我们建立了一个灵活的理论框架来研究理性后果主义消费者的竞争均衡。在违反价格取向的情况下，均衡反馈会非对称地抑制个人消费对总消费的影响，从而削弱减轻消费负担的动机。这就导致了一种新型的市场失灵，即使是完全 "内化了外部性 "的消费者也会过度消费产生外部性的商品。同时，有社会责任感的消费者会改变税收、上限和其他政策在降低外部性方面的相对有效性。其次，由于消费者对其市场影响的信念和偏好在我们的框架中起着至关重要的作用，我们通过有针对性的调查对其进行了实证研究。与我们的模型相一致的是，消费者通常是结果主义者，许多人认为他们对总消费的影响受到了抑制。然而，与我们的模型不一致的是，我们也发现许多受访者期望对总体消费产生一对一的影响。因此，第三，我们分析了这些 "天真 "的消费者是如何改变我们的理论结论的。在单品经济中，他们的消费低于理性消费者，但在具有跨市场溢出效应的多品经济中，他们的消费可能会更高。天真与理性消费者的混合可能会产生最坏的结果。