编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（8.19-8.25）共发布 30 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送前 10 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
Parental Leave: Economic Incentives and Cultural Change
父母假：经济激励与文化变革
James Albrecht, Per-Anders Edin, Raquel Fernández, Jiwon Lee, Peter Thoursie, and Susan Vroman #32839
Abstract: The distribution of parental leave uptake and childcare activities continues to conform to traditional gender roles. In 2002, with the goal of increasing gender equality, Sweden added a second “daddy month,” i.e., an additional month of pay-related parental leave reserved exclusively for each parent. This policy increased men’s parental leave uptake and decreased women’s, thereby increasing men’s share. To understand how various factors contributed to these outcomes, we develop and estimate a quantitative model of the household in which preferences towards parental leave respond to peer behavior. We distinguish households by the education of the parents and ask the model to match key features of the parental leave distribution before and after the reform by gender and household type (the parents’ education). We find that changed incentives and, especially, changed social norms played an important role in generating these outcomes whereas changed wage parameters, including the future wage penalty associated with different lengths of parental leave uptake, were minor contributors. We then use our model to evaluate three counterfactual policies designed to increase men’s share of parental leave and conclude that giving each parent a non-transferable endowment of parental leave or only paying for the length of time equally taken by each parent would both dramatically increase men’s share whereas decreasing childcare costs has almost no effect.
摘要：父母假期的使用和儿童护理活动的分布继续遵循传统的性别角色。为了增加性别平等，瑞典在2002年新增了一个“爸爸月”，即为每位父母额外保留一个月的带薪父母假。这项政策增加了男性的父母假期使用率，并减少了女性的使用率，从而提高了男性的份额。为了理解各种因素如何影响这些结果，我们开发并估计了一个家庭量化模型，其中父母对父母假的偏好会受到同龄人行为的影响。我们根据父母的教育水平区分家庭，并要求模型匹配改革前后按性别和家庭类型（父母的教育水平）划分的父母假期分布的关键特征。我们发现，激励变化，特别是社会规范的变化，在产生这些结果中发挥了重要作用，而工资参数的变化，包括与不同长度的父母假期相关的未来工资惩罚，则贡献较小。随后，我们使用模型评估了三种反事实政策，旨在增加男性的父母假期份额，并得出结论：给予每位父母不可转让的父母假期配额或仅支付每位父母平等使用的假期长度将显著增加男性的份额，而减少儿童护理成本几乎没有效果。
Short-time Employment Aid During the Covid-19 Lockdown Short and Long-run Effectiveness
COVID-19封锁期间的短时就业援助：短期和长期效果
Luca Salerno, Axel H. Börsch-Supan, Diana López-Falcón, and Johannes Rausch #32760
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic led to significant economic disruptions, prompting many governments to implement short-time employment aid (STEA) to mitigate job losses and income reductions. This study examines the effectiveness of STEA in the short and long term in Europe among workers aged 50 and older, a part of the population that was especially threatened by the disease. Using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE), we analyze the impact of STEA on employment status, working hours, and income during and after the pandemic. STEA was widespread in Europe. Our findings indicate that the use of STEA was in general reasonably targeted and may have helped its recipients to avoid even worse economic losses during the pandemic, especially after a learning process from 2020 to 2021. However, STEA may have led to increased employment instability in the longer run. Specifically, recipients of STEA were more likely to experience unemployment or furloughs post-pandemic. These results highlight the importance of designing STEA policies that not only provide immediate economic relief but also support sustainable employment and economic resilience.
摘要：COVID-19疫情导致了显著的经济干扰，促使许多政府实施了短时就业援助（STEA）以缓解失业和收入减少。这项研究考察了STEA在欧洲50岁及以上工人中的短期和长期有效性，这一群体在疫情中受到的威胁尤为严重。利用欧洲健康、衰老与退休调查（SHARE）的数据，我们分析了STEA在疫情期间及之后对就业状态、工作时间和收入的影响。STEA在欧洲广泛实施。我们的研究结果表明，STEA的使用总体上具有合理的针对性，可能帮助其接受者在疫情期间避免了更严重的经济损失，尤其是在2020至2021年的学习过程中。然而，STEA可能在长期内导致了就业不稳定。具体而言，STEA的接受者在疫情后更可能经历失业或停职。这些结果突显了设计STEA政策时的重要性，即不仅要提供即时的经济救助，还要支持可持续的就业和经济韧性。
Reserve Asset Competition and the Global Fiscal Cycle
储备资产竞争与全球财政周期
Zhengyang Jiang and Robert J. Richmond #32841
Abstract: Governments tend to increase their borrowing at the same time, giving rise to a global fiscal cycle. This global fiscal cycle has a large component that is unexplained by global business cycle variables. We propose a novel explanation for the emergence of the global fiscal cycle: governments' competition over the provision of reserve assets gives rise to strategic complementarity in the issuances, even when the reserve assets are substitutes in partial equilibrium. We show our reserve-asset-competition channel explains economically significant common variation in fiscal variables, beyond the common variation induced by correlated business cycles. In doing so, our model of reserve asset demand and supply also shines light on the sources of variation in the convenience yields and seigniorage revenues earned on government debt.
摘要：政府往往在同一时间增加借贷，从而产生了全球财政周期。这个全球财政周期有一个很大的部分无法用全球商业周期变量来解释。我们提出了一个新颖的解释：政府在储备资产提供方面的竞争导致了发行策略上的战略互补性，即使在部分均衡中储备资产是替代品。我们展示了我们的储备资产竞争渠道在解释财政变量的经济显著共同变动方面的作用，超出了由相关商业周期引起的共同变动。通过这样做，我们的储备资产需求和供应模型还揭示了政府债务上便利收益和铸币税收入变化的来源。
Eliciting Thresholds for Interdependent Behavior
引导阈值以促进相互依赖行为
Moritz Janas, Nikos Nikiforakis, and Simon Siegenthaler #32847
Abstract: Threshold models have been widely used to analyze interdependent behavior, yet empirical research identifying people’s thresholds is nonexistent. We introduce an incentivized method for eliciting thresholds and use it to study support for affirmative action in a large, stratified sample of the U.S. population. Most Asian, Black, Hispanic, and White men and women condition their support for affirmative action on the number of others supporting it. In line with preregistered hypotheses, thresholds are influenced by one’s perceived benefits and pressure to conform. We demonstrate how our method can offer unique insights for policy design and enhance understanding of social dynamics.
摘要：阈值模型被广泛用于分析相互依赖行为，但尚无实证研究确定人们的阈值。我们引入了一种激励方法来引导阈值，并利用该方法研究美国人口中对平权行动的支持情况。大多数亚洲、黑人、西班牙裔和白人男性及女性的平权行动支持与他们所观察到的其他人支持的数量有关。与预注册的假设一致，阈值受到个人感知的利益和从众压力的影响。我们展示了该方法如何为政策设计提供独特的见解，并增强对社会动态的理解。
Direct and Indirect Taxes in Pollution Dynamics
污染动态中的直接税和间接税
Vladimir Smirnyagin, Aleh Tsyvinski, and Xi Wu #32852
Abstract: Analyzing the universe of federal environmental regulations in the U.S., we construct a measure of regulations—direct taxes on pollution. Analyzing the universe of firms’ investor disclosures, we construct a measure of material environmental concerns—indirect taxes on pollution. These two empirical measures are new to the environmental regulations literature. Thirdly, we document an important new fact that the cross-sectional distribution of pollution changes is lumpy. We build a dynamic heterogeneous firm model with non-convex adjustment costs that fits the cross-sectional pollution evidence. The model explains half of the pollution decline in U.S. manufacturing over the last two decades due to direct and indirect taxes. We show that the dynamics of direct taxes (environmental regulations) and indirect taxes (environmental concerns), non-convex adjustment costs, and idiosyncratic productivity shocks are key determinants of pollution dynamics in U.S. manufacturing.
摘要：通过分析美国的联邦环境法规，我们构建了一个关于直接污染税的法规量度。通过分析公司投资者披露的信息，我们构建了一个关于物质环境关注的量度，即间接污染税。这两个实证量度在环境法规文献中是新的。第三，我们记录了一个重要的新事实，即污染变化的横截面分布是不均匀的。我们建立了一个具有非凸调整成本的动态异质企业模型，以符合横截面污染证据。该模型解释了过去二十年美国制造业污染下降的一半是由于直接和间接税收。我们表明，直接税（环境法规）和间接税（环境关注）的动态、非凸调整成本以及个体生产率冲击是决定美国制造业污染动态的关键因素。
Toward an Understanding of the Economics of Prosumers: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment
理解生产消费者经济学：来自自然实验的证据
John A. List, Ioannis C. Pragidis, and Michael K. Price #32837
Abstract: Prosumers are becoming increasingly important in global energy consumption and production. We partner with an energy service provider in Sweden to explore the economics facing such agents by conducting a natural field experiment over a 32-month period. As a policy instrument, we explore how simple nudges affect choices on both the consumption and production sides. Importantly, with the added flexibility to influence both sides of the market, and with a rich data set that permits an analysis of intraday, intraweek, and seasonal variation, we can detail effects on overall conservation efforts, intertemporal substitution, load shifting, and net purchases from the grid. The overarching theme is that nudges have the potential to have an even greater impact on the energy market with prosumers compared to their portmanteau components.
摘要：生产消费者在全球能源消费和生产中变得越来越重要。我们与瑞典的一家能源服务提供商合作，通过进行为期32个月的自然场域实验来探索这些主体面临的经济问题。作为政策工具，我们研究了简单的激励措施如何影响消费和生产两方面的选择。重要的是，由于能够灵活地影响市场的两个方面，并且拥有允许分析日内、周内和季节性变化的丰富数据集，我们可以详细描述对整体节能努力、跨期替代、负荷转移以及从电网净购电的影响。总的主题是，与其各自的组成部分相比，激励措施在生产消费者的能源市场中可能产生更大的影响。
People, Practices, and Productivity: A Review of New Advances in Personnel Economics
人员经济学的新进展综述：人员、实践与生产力
Mitchell Hoffman and Christopher T. Stanton #32849
Abstract:This chapter surveys recent advances in personnel economics. We begin by presenting evidence showing substantial and persistent productivity variation among workers in the same roles. We discuss new research on incentives and compensation; hiring practices; the influence of managers and peers; and time use, technology, and training. We emphasize two main themes. First, we seek to illustrate the interplay between these topics and productivity differences between people and work units. Second, we argue that personnel economics has benefited from exploration, which we think of as the willingness to use new data and methods to shed light on existing questions and to raise new ones. As many personnel studies use data from individual firms, we discuss external validity and provide concrete guidance on how to improve discussions of the generalizability of findings from specific contexts.
摘要：本章综述了人员经济学的最新进展。我们首先展示了同一职位的工人之间存在显著且持续的生产力差异的证据。我们讨论了关于激励与薪酬、招聘实践、管理者和同事的影响，以及时间使用、技术和培训的新研究。我们强调了两个主要主题。首先，我们旨在说明这些主题与人员和工作单位生产力差异之间的相互作用。其次，我们认为人员经济学受益于探索，我们将其视为使用新数据和方法来阐明现有问题并提出新问题的意愿。由于许多人员研究使用的是来自个别公司的数据，我们讨论了外部效度，并提供了关于如何改善特定背景下研究结果普遍性的讨论的具体指导。
NAR Settlement, House Prices, and Consumer Welfare
NAR和解、房价与消费者福利
Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, and Amit Seru #32855
Abstract: Motivated by the recent National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement, this note examines the effects of reduced real estate agent commissions on home prices, housing turnover, and consumer welfare. Using a calibrated dynamic structural search model of the housing market, we explore how lowering agent commissions might influence market equilibrium. Our analysis highlights the importance of accounting for the dynamic nature of the housing market, consumer heterogeneity, and general equilibrium effects when assessing these outcomes. Contrary to the claims of some media commentators and consumer advocates, our findings suggest that reducing agent fees generally leads to higher house prices. This occurs because lower future transaction costs increase the value of housing as a durable asset. While reduced agent fees typically enhance consumer welfare by lowering the cost of homeownership, we find that most of these benefits are likely to accrue to current homeowners rather than prospective buyers. Furthermore, financially constrained households may see diminished benefits due to the expected rise in home prices. Our analysis also offers insights into the redistributive effects of technological innovations in the housing market aimed at reducing transaction costs.
摘要：受最近全国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）和解的启发，本说明书考察了降低房地产经纪人佣金对房价、住房流动性和消费者福利的影响。我们使用了一个经过校准的动态结构搜索模型来探索降低经纪人佣金如何影响市场均衡。我们的分析突出了在评估这些结果时考虑住房市场的动态特性、消费者异质性和一般均衡效应的重要性。与一些媒体评论员和消费者倡导者的说法相反，我们的研究发现，降低经纪人费用通常会导致房价上涨。这是因为较低的未来交易成本增加了住房作为耐用资产的价值。虽然降低经纪人费用通常通过降低购房成本来提升消费者福利，但我们发现这些好处大多会惠及现有房主，而不是潜在买家。此外，由于预期房价上涨，经济受限的家庭可能会看到收益减少。我们的分析还提供了关于旨在降低交易成本的住房市场技术创新的再分配效应的见解。
Money in a Heterogeneous Agent Model
异质代理人模型中的货币
Roger E.A. Farmer #32836
Abstract: I introduce money into an incomplete markets model with heterogeneous agents and uninsurable income risk. I show that the model exhibits both non-monetary and monetary equilibria, with the latter existing when income risk is sufficiently high. Using numerical methods, I characterize the properties of these equilibria and analyze their stability. I find that for a range of realistic parameter values, the non-monetary equilibrium is dynamically inefficient and indeterminate, and there is a second determinate monetary equilibrium with positive valued fiat money.
摘要：我将货币引入了一个具有异质主体和无法保险的收入风险的不完全市场模型中。我展示了该模型既存在非货币均衡，也存在货币均衡，而后者在收入风险足够高时才会出现。通过数值方法，我描述了这些均衡的特性并分析了它们的稳定性。我发现，对于一系列现实的参数值，非货币均衡在动态上是不效率且不确定的，而存在一个确定的货币均衡，其具有正值的法定货币。
Reciprocity and the China Shock
互惠性与中国冲击
Chad P. Bown, Lorenzo Caliendo, Fernando Parro, Robert W. Staiger, and Alan O. Sykes #32835
Abstract: We formalize the GATT/WTO principle of reciprocity in workhorse quantitative trade models, characterizing reciprocal tariff cuts that hold terms of trade fixed and investigating their labor-market impacts. We provide closed-form expressions mapping reciprocal tariff cuts to labor market dislocation. We demonstrate that a country’s own tariff liberalization is a sufficient statistic for the labor-market adjustments it can expect from tariff negotiations that satisfy reciprocity. Applying our theoretical results to China’s 2001 WTO accession, we find that China’s tariff reductions exceeded reciprocity norms, increasing real incomes but amplifying the manufacturing employment dislocation – the China Shock – in the United States and globally.
摘要：我们在经典的定量贸易模型中形式化了GATT/WTO的互惠原则，描述了保持贸易条件不变的互惠关税削减，并调查了其对劳动力市场的影响。我们提供了将互惠关税削减映射到劳动力市场失调的封闭形式表达式。我们证明了一个国家自身的关税自由化是其能够预期的互惠关税谈判带来的劳动力市场调整的充分统计量。将我们的理论结果应用于中国2001年加入WTO，我们发现中国的关税削减超出了互惠规范，这虽然提高了实际收入，但却放大了制造业就业失调——即中国冲击——在美国及全球的影响。
往期精选：
