长期合同、承诺与最优信息披露

Alessandro Dovis and Paolo Martellini #33051

Abstract: This paper studies optimal information disclosure in dynamic insurance economies with income risk in which an incumbent firm acquires more information about a consumer's persistent type than the rest of the market does. We find that if the incumbent can commit to long-term contracts but the consumer can walk away, the optimal disclosure prescribes no information revelation to maximize cross-subsidization. However, if the incumbent lacks commitment, no cross-subsidization of low-income consumers is feasible for any public information disclosure because of adverse selection. We show that partial information disclosure is typically optimal and it aims at implementing intertemporal consumption smoothing between the first period and the high-state in the second period, generating an inverse of the back-loading result in Harris and Holmstrom (1982). Lastly, we show that, without commitment, banning long-term relations can be beneficial to consumers. Our results can be used to analyze the consequences of policy proposals such as open banking and consumer data ownership.

摘要：本文研究了在动态保险经济中关于最优信息披露的问题，特别是针对收入风险情形，其中现有公司（ incumbent firm）比市场上的其他参与者获取了更多关于消费者持续类型的信息。我们发现，如果现有公司能够承诺签订长期合同但消费者可以随时退出，为了最大化交叉补贴，最优的披露方案是不披露任何信息。然而，如果现有公司无法作出承诺，那么由于逆向选择的存在，任何公开信息披露都无法实现对低收入消费者的交叉补贴。我们展示了部分信息披露通常是最优的，其目的是在第一期和第二期的高状态之间实现跨期消费平滑，产生与 Harris 和 Holmstrom (1982) 的延后效应（back-loading result）相反的结果。最后，我们表明，在没有承诺的情况下，禁止长期关系对消费者可能是有利的。我们的结果可以用于分析诸如开放银行（open banking）和消费者数据所有权等政策提案的后果。

迁移引发的失业建模

Pascal Michaillat #33047

Abstract: Immigration is often blamed for increasing unemployment among local workers. However, standard models, such as the neoclassical model and the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides matching model, inherently assume that immigrants are absorbed into the labor market without affecting local unemployment. This paper presents a more general model of migration that allows for the possibility that not only the wages but also the unemployment rate of local workers may be affected by the arrival of newcomers. This extension is essential to capture the full range of potential impacts of labor migration on labor markets. The model blends a matching framework with job rationing. In it, the arrival of new workers can raise the unemployment rate among local workers, particularly in a depressed labor market where job opportunities are limited. On the positive side, in-migration helps firms fill vacancies more easily, boosting their profits. The overall impact of in-migration on local welfare varies with labor market conditions: in-migration reduces welfare when the labor market is inefficiently slack, but it enhances welfare when the labor market is inefficiently tight.

摘要：移民常常被指责导致本地工人失业率上升。然而，标准模型（如新古典模型和Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides匹配模型）固有地假设移民能够被劳动力市场吸收，而不会影响本地工人的失业率。本文提出了一个更为一般的迁移模型，该模型不仅允许移民的到来可能影响本地工人的工资，还可能影响他们的失业率。这一扩展对于全面理解劳动力迁移对劳动力市场的潜在影响至关重要。该模型将匹配框架与岗位配给（job rationing）结合在一起。在这一框架中，新工人的到来可能会增加本地工人的失业率，特别是在工作机会有限的萧条劳动力市场中。另一方面，移民的进入有助于企业更容易填补职位空缺，增加它们的利润。移民对本地福利的整体影响取决于劳动力市场的状况：在劳动力市场过于松弛（即工作机会不足）时，移民会降低福利；而在劳动力市场过于紧张（即工作需求旺盛但职位不足）时，移民则有助于提升福利。

同伴影响下的数字干扰：移动应用使用对学业和劳动力市场结果的影响

Panle Jia Barwick, Siyu Chen, Chao Fu, and Teng Li #33054

Abstract: Concerns over the excessive use of mobile phones, especially among youths and young adults, are growing. Leveraging administrative student data from a Chinese university merged with mobile phone records, random roommate assignments, and a policy shock that affects peers’ peers, we present, to our knowledge, the first estimates of both behavioral spillover and contextual peer effects, and the first estimates of medium-term impacts of mobile app usage on academic achievement, physical health, and labor market outcomes. App usage is contagious: a one s.d. increase in roommates’ in-college app usage raises own app usage by 4.4% on average, with substantial heterogeneity across students. App usage is detrimental to both academic performance and labor market outcomes. A one s.d. increase in own app usage reduces GPAs by 36.2% of a within-cohort-major s.d. and lowers wages by 2.3%. Roommates’ app usage exerts both direct effects (e.g., noise and disruptions) and indirect effects (via behavioral spillovers) on GPA and wage, resulting in a total negative impact of over half the size of the own usage effect. Extending China’s minors’ game restriction policy of 3 hours per week to college students would boost their initial wages by 0.7%. Using high-frequency GPS data, we identify one underlying mechanism: high app usage crowds out time in study halls and increases absences from and late arrivals at lectures.

摘要：对于移动电话过度使用的担忧，特别是在青少年和年轻人中，正在不断增加。本文利用中国一所大学的行政学生数据，结合手机使用记录、随机分配的室友数据以及影响同伴的政策冲击，首次估算了行为溢出效应和情境同伴效应，并首次估算了移动应用使用对学业成绩、身体健康和劳动力市场结果的中期影响。应用使用具有传染性：室友在校期间应用使用量增加一个标准差，平均会使自己的应用使用量增加4.4%，且学生间存在显著的差异。应用使用对学业表现和劳动力市场结果都有不利影响。个人应用使用量每增加一个标准差，GPA（平均成绩）会下降36.2%的同年级同专业标准差，工资则会降低2.3%。室友的应用使用通过直接效应（如噪音和干扰）和间接效应（如行为溢出效应）对GPA和工资产生影响，总的负面影响超过了个人使用影响的一半。如果将中国对未成年人实施的每周3小时游戏限制政策扩展至大学生，他们的初始工资将提高0.7%。通过高频GPS数据，我们识别出其中一个潜在机制：高应用使用量挤占了在自习室的时间，增加了缺课和迟到的现象。

求职、工资与通货膨胀

Laura Pilossoph and Jane M. Ryngaert #33042

Abstract: How do inflation expectations affect the job search behavior of workers when wages are set in nominal terms? A canonical job search model incorporating nominal wage rigidities implies that on-the-job search should increase and reservation wages should decrease with expected inflation. Higher inflation expectations therefore lead to more frequent job-to-job transitions. We show in a novel survey that workers search more under higher values of hypothetical inflation. In the Survey of Consumer Expectations, workers with higher inflation expectations have lower reservation wages and are more likely to search and to change jobs. The relationship between expected inflation and employer-to-employer transitions also appears in aggregate time series data.

摘要：当工资以名义形式设定时，通货膨胀预期如何影响工人的求职行为？一个包含名义工资刚性（nominal wage rigidities）的经典求职模型表明，随着通胀预期的上升，在职求职（on-the-job search）应该增加，而保留工资（reservation wages）应该下降。因此，较高的通胀预期会导致工人与工人之间的工作转换更加频繁。我们通过一项新颖的调查显示，在假设的较高通胀条件下，工人更倾向于寻找新工作。在消费者预期调查（Survey of Consumer Expectations）中，通胀预期较高的工人拥有较低的保留工资，更有可能进行求职并换工作。预期通胀与雇主之间转换的关系在总体时间序列数据中也得以体现。

为什么美国的失业率在二战结束时没有上升？

Shigeru Fujita, Valerie A. Ramey, and Tal Roded #33041

Abstract: This paper investigates why the U.S. unemployment rate rose only a few percentage points despite the dramatic decline in government spending and other upheaval at the end of World War II. Using a new longitudinal data set based on archival sources and government surveys, we study the many facets of this question. We find five main results. First, withdrawals from the labor force at the end of WWII were an important part of the explanation for the small rise in the unemployment rate. These withdrawals tended to be concentrated among females between the ages of 20 and 44 and male war veterans. Second, among those staying in the labor force, most of the workers who separated from their jobs moved directly into a new job. Third, workers accomplished these job-to-job transitions despite moving across industries. Fourth, returning veterans quickly returned to their previous position on the occupation ladder whereas those laid off from civilian jobs experienced a significant step down the occupation ladder. Fifth, a neoclassical model suggests that the post-war boom in job creation was a direct consequence of the crowding out of investment in consumer durable goods, residential capital, and business capital by military spending during the war.

摘要：本文探讨了为什么尽管二战结束时政府支出大幅减少以及其他动荡因素的影响，美国失业率仅上升了几个百分点。我们基于档案资料和政府调查建立了一套新的纵向数据集，研究了这一问题的多个方面，并得出了五个主要结论。第一，二战结束时劳动力退出市场是解释失业率仅小幅上升的重要原因之一，这些退出主要集中在20至44岁的女性和男性退伍军人中。第二，对于留在劳动力市场的工人，大多数与原工作分离的员工直接转入了新工作。第三，尽管工人跨行业流动，他们仍然成功完成了这种工作转换。第四，退伍军人迅速回到了其职业阶梯上的原有位置，而从民用工作中被解雇的工人则经历了职业阶梯的显著下降。第五，一个新古典模型表明，战后就业激增是战时军事支出挤压了消费耐用商品、住宅资本和商业资本投资的直接结果。

美国的收入、财富与环境不平等

Jonathan M. Colmer, Suvy Qin, John L. Voorheis, and Reed Walker #33050

Abstract: This paper explores the relationships between air pollution, income, wealth, and race by combining administrative data from U.S. tax returns between 1979-2016, various measures of air pollution, and sociodemographic information from linked survey and administrative data. In the first year of our data, the relationship between income and ambient pollution levels nationally is approximately zero for both non-Hispanic White and Black individuals. However, at every single percentile of the national income distribution, Black individuals are exposed to, on average, higher levels of pollution than White individuals. By 2016, the relationship between income and air pollution had steepened, primarily for Black individuals, driven by changes in where rich and poor Black individuals live. We utilize quasi-random shocks to income to examine the causal effect of changes in income and wealth on pollution exposure over a five year horizon, finding that these income-pollution elasticities map closely to the values implied by our descriptive patterns. We calculate that Black-White differences in income can explain approximately 10 percent of the observed gap in air pollution levels in 2016.

摘要：本文通过结合1979-2016年美国税收申报数据、各种空气污染测量指标以及关联的调查和行政数据中的社会人口信息，探讨了空气污染、收入、财富和种族之间的关系。在数据的第一个年份（1979年），全国范围内收入与环境污染水平的关系在非西班牙裔白人和非西班牙裔黑人群体中大致为零。然而，在全国收入分布的每一个百分位上，黑人个体平均暴露于比白人更高水平的污染。到2016年，收入与空气污染之间的关系变得更加陡峭，主要体现在黑人群体中，这一变化由富裕和贫困黑人居住地的差异驱动。我们利用收入的准随机冲击，考察了收入和财富变化对五年内污染暴露的因果效应，发现这些收入-污染弹性与我们描述性模式所暗示的数值非常吻合。我们计算得出，2016年黑人与白人之间的收入差异可解释大约10%的空气污染水平差距。

复杂环境中的过渡性市场动态

C. Lanier Benkard, Przemyslaw Jeziorski, and Gabriel Weintraub #33045

Abstract: This paper presents a new approach to modeling transitional dynamics in dynamic models of imperfect competition, a crucial yet often neglected aspect of empirical models in industrial organization that seek to understand market responses to policy and environmental changes. We introduce Nonstationary Oblivious Equilibrium (NOE), a computationally efficient equilibrium concept based on a mean-field approximation designed to model short- and medium-run market dynamics. Addressing potential limitations of NOE in more concentrated markets or under aggregate shocks, we propose a variant, NOE with Re-solving (RNOE). RNOE modifies firms' strategies by re-computing NOE as industry states get realized; an iterative process inspired by real-world industry practice that has behavioral appeal. We show the potential of NOE and RNOE by applying them to an empirical setting of technology adoption and to two classic dynamic oligopoly models, demonstrating that, in a wide variety of settings of empirical interest, they generate equilibrium behavior that is close to Markov perfect equilibrium in both the short and long runs.

摘要：本文提出了一种新的方法来建模不完全竞争动态模型中的过渡性动态，这在旨在理解市场对政策和环境变化反应的产业组织实证模型中是一个关键但常常被忽视的方面。我们引入了非平稳无知均衡（Nonstationary Oblivious Equilibrium，NOE），这是一种基于平均场近似的计算效率较高的均衡概念，旨在模拟短期和中期的市场动态。针对NOE在市场集中度较高或面临总量冲击时的潜在局限性，我们提出了一个变体：带有重新求解的NOE（RNOE）。RNOE通过在行业状态实现时重新计算NOE来调整企业的策略，这是一种受现实产业实践启发的迭代过程，具有行为学上的吸引力。我们通过将NOE和RNOE应用于技术采用的实证情境以及两个经典的动态寡头垄断模型，展示了在各种具有实证意义的情境下，它们在短期和长期内都能生成接近马尔可夫完美均衡的均衡行为。

Bucky、Becky与学生资助政策设计

Elise A. Marifian, Jeffrey A. Smith, and Sarah Turner #33053

Abstract: Bucky’s Tuition Promise (BTP) at the University of Wisconsin–Madison offers generous financial aid to low-income, in-state students. Unlike many similar programs at other public universities, financial eligibility for BTP depends solely on a family’s Adjusted Gross Income (AGI), rather than on the Expected Family Contribution (EFC) from the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA) or some function of the poverty line. This program design aims to make eligibility simpler and more transparent for students and their families and thereby to encourage application and matriculation. We investigate the implications of the program design for who does and does not receive additional institutional aid, with a particular focus on the marginal group of BTP-eligible students who lack Federal Pell Grant eligibility. With this analysis, we aim to motivate a broader discussion of different notions of equity in financial aid administration and the tough tradeoffs implicit in simplifying eligibility criteria.

摘要：威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校的“巴基学费承诺”（Bucky’s Tuition Promise，BTP）为低收入的州内学生提供慷慨的经济资助。与许多其他公立大学的类似项目不同，BTP的资助资格仅取决于家庭的调整后总收入（Adjusted Gross Income, AGI），而非联邦学生资助申请表（FAFSA）中的预期家庭贡献（Expected Family Contribution, EFC）或贫困线的某种标准。该项目设计旨在简化和透明化资助资格，使学生及其家庭更容易理解，从而鼓励申请和入学。我们研究了这一设计对于哪些学生能获得额外的校内资助、哪些不能获得资助的影响，特别关注那些符合BTP资格但不符合联邦佩尔助学金（Federal Pell Grant）资格的边缘学生群体。通过这项分析，我们希望激发对不同经济资助公平概念的广泛讨论，并探讨在简化资助资格标准过程中隐含的艰难取舍。

早期地方劳动力市场状况与老年男性死亡率：来自新英格兰纺织业历史性去工业化的证据

Hamid Noghanibehambari and Jason Fletcher #33039

Abstract: Previous studies document the potential links between early-life insults and life-cycle outcomes. However, fewer studies examine the effects of local labor market shocks during early-life on old-age male mortality. This article empirically investigates this link using a large-scale deindustrialization as a source of shocks to local labor markets: the decline in the New England’s textile industry during the 1920s and 1930s. Consistent with prior studies, we find small impacts on migration and changes in sociodemographic composition of counties post-deindustrialization. Using Social Security Administration death records linked with historical censuses 1900-1940 and difference-in-difference event studies, we find reductions in longevity for those born in highly-exposed counties whose families are categorized as non-migrants and those residing in non-urban areas. The results suggest intent-to-treat effects of about 3.3 months while the treatment-on-treated calculations suggest reductions of about 4 years in longevity of children of affected families. Using 1950-1960 census data, we find that those born in highly-exposed counties post-deindustrialization reveal large reductions in schooling, decreases in high school completion, and significant decreases in measures of socioeconomic standing. We further discuss the policy implication of these findings.

摘要：以往的研究记录了早期生活中的冲击与整个生命周期结果之间的潜在联系。然而，较少的研究关注早期生活中的地方劳动力市场冲击对老年男性死亡率的影响。本文通过实证分析这一联系，利用大规模的去工业化作为地方劳动力市场冲击的来源：20世纪20年代和30年代新英格兰纺织业的衰退。与先前的研究一致，我们发现去工业化后县级人口迁移和社会人口结构变化的影响较小。通过将社会保障管理局的死亡记录与1900-1940年间的历史人口普查数据相结合，并采用差异中的差异事件研究方法，我们发现出生在高暴露县且其家庭被归类为非迁移者以及居住在非城市地区的人，其寿命有所缩短。结果表明，影响到整体人群的预期效果约为3.3个月，而受影响家庭的子女实际受到的影响估计使寿命缩短约4年。通过1950-1960年的人口普查数据，我们发现，去工业化后出生在高暴露县的人，受教育水平大幅下降，高中毕业率降低，社会经济地位的衡量指标显著下降。我们进一步讨论了这些发现的政策意义。

往期精选：

      重磅：学术财经•学术笔记全汇总

重磅：学术财经全球价值链专题学术笔记大汇总（附下载链接失效学术笔记推文）

重磅| 基金申请内部学习和交流

【学术笔记·第37篇】风险和全球供应链：我们知道什么和我们需要知道什么

【学术笔记·第36篇】各有所长：全球供应链风险敞口（Exposure）测度

【学术笔记·第35篇】日本生产者价格指数理论与实证：最终需求-中间需求加总系统

【学术笔记·第34篇】北美自由贸易的贸易和福利影响估计

【学术笔记 第33篇】 英属印度时期铁路：交通基础设施的影响评估（AER）

【学术笔记 第32篇】 技术、地理和贸易(经典EK模型）

【学术笔记 第31篇】2018年贸易战对美国物价和福利的影响

【学术笔记 第30篇】全球价值链和国家部门层面实际有效汇率