供给侧毒品政策、多药物使用与戒断症状的经济影响

Alexander Ahammer and Analisa Packham #32804

Abstract: Despite the fact that 30 percent of opioid overdoses also involve a benzodiazepine, there is little policy guidance on how to curb concurrent misuse and even less evidence on how changes to co-prescribing practices can affect patients' economic trajectories. In 2012, Austria restricted access to flunitrazepam, one of the most potent, and most heavily misused, benzodiazepines. We use linked individual-level data to identify opioid users and estimate the reform's impact on their health and labor market outcomes relative to a randomly selected comparison group of non-opioid users. Estimates indicate a 12.7 percent drop in employment, a 13.1 percent increase in unemployment insurance claims, and a 26.5 percent increase in overall healthcare expenditures. We provide suggestive evidence that these effects are due to incapacitating withdrawal symptoms, rather than substitution to other drugs, including heroin or alcohol.

摘要：尽管有30%的阿片类药物过量涉及苯二氮䓬类药物，但关于如何遏制这种共同滥用的政策指导很少，而且关于改变联合处方做法如何影响患者经济轨迹的证据更少。2012年，奥地利限制了氟硝西泮的获取，这是一种最强效且最常被滥用的苯二氮䓬类药物。我们使用关联的个人级别数据，识别出阿片类药物使用者，并估计这一改革对他们的健康和劳动力市场结果的影响，并与随机选择的非阿片类药物使用者的对照组进行比较。估计结果显示，就业率下降了12.7%，失业保险申领增加了13.1%，总体医疗支出增加了26.5%。我们提供了初步证据，表明这些影响是由于严重的戒断症状所致，而不是由于转向其他药物（如海洛因或酒精）的替代。

局部预测

Òscar Jordà and Alan M. Taylor #32822

Abstract: A central question in applied research is to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome. The intervention can affect the outcome and controls on impact and over time. Moreover, there can be subsequent feedback between outcomes, controls and the intervention. Many of these interactions can be untangled using local projections. This method’s simplicity makes it a convenient and versatile tool in the empiricist’s kit, one that is generalizable to complex settings. This article reviews the state-of-the art for the practitioner, discusses best practices and possible extensions of local projections methods, along with their limitations.

摘要：应用研究中的一个核心问题是估计外生干预或冲击对结果的影响。干预可能会立即及随时间影响结果和控制变量。此外，结果、控制变量和干预之间可能会出现后续反馈。许多这样的互动可以通过局部预测方法来解开。由于该方法的简洁性，它成为经验研究者工具箱中一个方便且多功能的工具，能够推广到复杂的情境中。本文回顾了局部预测方法的最新进展，为实践者提供指南，讨论最佳实践和可能的扩展，以及这些方法的局限性。

挪威企业现金支持计划中的误报情况

Dinara Alpysbayeva, Annette Alstadsæter, Wojciech Kopczuk, Simen Markussen, and Oddbjorn Raaum #32801

Abstract: We analyze the reporting response to an ambitiously targeted government support scheme for Norwegian businesses at the very start of the Coronavirus crisis in 2020. Our empirical design is based on cross-checking self-reported data in the applications for support with administratively reported data used for VAT. We find strong evidence that strategic misreporting was present but conclude that its remaining quantitative extent after enforcement actions already taken by the tax authorities was relatively small. Firms tend to misreport 4 percent more often than expected, and the actual support paid out was 5 percent higher than it should have been. We discuss possible reasons for the relatively limited extent of non-compliance and more general lessons for the design of transfer programs.

摘要：我们分析了挪威政府在2020年新冠疫情初期推出的企业现金支持计划中企业的报告反应。我们的实证设计基于将支持申请中自报数据与用于增值税的行政报告数据进行交叉核对。我们发现有强有力的证据表明存在策略性误报，但得出结论认为，税务机关已采取的执法行动后，剩余的误报量在量化上相对较小。企业误报的频率比预期高出4%，实际支付的支持金额比应支付的高出5%。我们讨论了不合规程度相对有限的可能原因，以及对转移支付项目设计的一般性教训。

腐败作为一种共同的困境：来自三个国家的立法者和公民的调查证据

Raymond Fisman, Matteo F. Ferroni, and Miriam Golden #32825

Abstract: We conduct parallel surveys of legislators and citizens in three countries to study their tolerance for corruption. In Italy, Colombia, and Pakistan legislators and citizens respond similarly to hypothetical scenarios involving trade-offs between, for example, probity and efficiency: both perceive corruption as undesirable but prevalent. These novel descriptive data further reveal that legislators generally have accurate beliefs about public opinion on corruption and understand its relevance to voters. An informational treatment updates legislators’ beliefs about public opinion. The treatment produces downward adjustments among legislators who initially overestimated citizens’ anti-corruption preferences. We also present descriptive data that tolerance of corruption is predicted by politician attributes, most notably motivations for entering politics. Finally, results reconfirm partisan bias by voters in evaluations of corruption. Overall, results suggest that barriers to effective anti-corruption policies are unlikely to lie with lack of information by legislators or by their deliberate commitment to corrupt activities.

摘要：我们对三个国家的立法者和公民进行了平行调查，以研究他们对腐败的容忍度。在意大利、哥伦比亚和巴基斯坦，立法者和公民对涉及诚信与效率之间权衡的假设场景的反应相似：他们都认为腐败是不受欢迎但普遍存在的。这些新的描述性数据进一步揭示，立法者通常对公众对腐败的看法有准确的认知，并理解其对选民的重要性。一项信息处理实验更新了立法者对公众意见的看法，实验结果显示，最初高估了公民反腐偏好的立法者会下调他们的估计。我们还提供了描述性数据，表明对腐败的容忍度可以通过政治人物的特征来预测，特别是他们从政的动机。最后，结果再次确认选民在腐败评估中的党派偏见。总体而言，结果表明，反腐败政策实施的障碍不太可能在于立法者缺乏信息或他们对腐败活动的故意参与。

种族住房价格差异与社区隔离

Sebastien Box-Couillard and Peter Christensen #32815

Abstract: We report evidence from the largest study of racial price differentials in the U.S. housing market, using a panel of 40 million repeat-sales transactions. We find that price premiums facing Black and Hispanic homebuyers are ubiquitous and systematically higher in neighborhoods with a larger share of non-white residents. We find that non-white buyers purchase at a premium when buying from sellers from outside their group. Consistent with predictions from theoretical models, we find higher premiums in supply-constrained markets. Leveraging exogenous variation in racial segregation, we find that racial segregation leads to larger price premiums paid by Black homebuyers.

摘要：我们报告了美国住房市场中关于种族价格差异的最大规模研究的证据，研究使用了4000万次重复销售交易的面板数据。研究发现，黑人和西班牙裔购房者面临的价格溢价普遍存在，并且在非白人居民比例较高的社区中系统性地更高。研究还发现，当非白人购房者从不同种族群体的卖家处购买房产时，他们往往支付更高的溢价。与理论模型的预测一致，我们在供应受限的市场中发现了更高的溢价。此外，通过利用种族隔离的外生变化，研究发现种族隔离导致黑人购房者支付更高的价格溢价。

大萧条期间的银行贷款和存款紧缩

Kris James Mitchener and Gary Richardson #32783

Abstract: Bank distress was a defining feature of the Great Depression in the United States. Most banks, however, weathered the storm and remained in operation throughout the contraction. We show that surviving banks cut lending when depositors withdrew funds en masse during panics. This panic-induced decline in lending explains about one-third of the reduction in aggregate commercial bank lending between 1929 and 1932, more than twice as much as attributed to the failure of banks.

摘要：银行危机是美国大萧条时期的一个显著特征。然而，大多数银行经受住了风暴，在整个经济紧缩期间继续运营。我们发现，当储户在恐慌期间大规模提取资金时，幸存的银行会减少贷款。这种由恐慌引发的贷款下降解释了1929年至1932年间商业银行贷款总量减少的约三分之一，这一比例是银行倒闭所导致的贷款减少量的两倍多。

突破与障碍的50年：经济学、政策和领导领域的女性

Francine D. Blau and Lisa M. Lynch #32820

Abstract: This paper provides an overview of what has happened over the past fifty years for women as they worked to break through professional barriers in economics, policy, and institutional leadership. We chart the progress of women in higher education at the college level and beyond and then go on to examine women’s representation at the upper levels of academia, government, law, medicine, and management. We begin our description of trends in 1972 when Title IX was enacted, prohibiting sex-based discrimination in federally funded educational programs. The data paint a picture of considerable progress but also persistent inequities. We then go on to consider possible explanations for the continuing gender differences and some of the empirical evidence on the factors identified.

摘要：本文概述了过去五十年中女性在突破经济学、政策和机构领导领域的职业障碍方面所取得的进展。我们梳理了女性在大学及以上高等教育中的发展历程，随后考察了女性在学术界、政府、法律、医学和管理等高级别领域的代表性。我们的趋势描述始于1972年《第九条款》的颁布，该法案禁止在联邦资助的教育项目中基于性别的歧视。数据描绘了一幅进展显著但仍存在不平等的图景。随后，我们探讨了性别差异持续存在的可能解释，并研究了关于这些因素的部分实证证据。

德国的养老金改革与不平等：微观建模分析

Axel H. Börsch-Supan, Johannes Rausch, and Luca Salerno #32796

Abstract: Germany, like many other countries, has undergone a series of pension reforms since the 1980s which generally decreased benefit generosity and increased the retirement age due to demographic pressures. This paper investigates whether these reforms have increased income and wealth inequality among retirees. In order to answer this question, we employed counterfactual simulations in which we predict how the income and social security wealth distributions would have developed if these reforms had not taken place, compared to the actual development of the income and social security wealth distributions. Our analysis reveals that the pension reforms has led to an increase in inequality in terms of social security wealth between the 1990s and 2000s and decreased inequality thereafter. The decrease in inequality is mainly driven by social assistance as it represents a lower bound for benefit size and thus mitigates the effect of benefit-reducing reforms for lower income groups. We further divided the total effect of the pension reforms into two components. The first component is the mechanical effect, which keeps retirement probabilities constant and only considers changes in benefit calculation. The second component is the behavioral effect, which describes how SSW differs because of altered retirement probabilities. Our findings indicate that in the German context the behavioral effect is statistically significant but economically small

摘要：与许多其他国家一样，德国自1980年代以来经历了一系列养老金改革，这些改革通常由于人口压力减少了福利的慷慨性并提高了退休年龄。本文研究了这些改革是否增加了退休人员之间的收入和财富不平等。为了回答这个问题，我们进行了反事实模拟，预测如果这些改革没有发生，收入和社会保障财富的分布将如何发展，并将其与实际的收入和社会保障财富分布的发展进行比较。我们的分析显示，养老金改革在1990年代到2000年代之间导致了社会保障财富不平等的增加，但之后不平等有所减少。这种不平等的减少主要是由于社会救助的影响，因为它为福利金额设定了一个下限，从而减轻了福利削减改革对低收入群体的影响。我们进一步将养老金改革的总效应分为两个部分。第一部分是机械效应，即保持退休概率不变，仅考虑福利计算的变化。第二部分是行为效应，即描述由于退休概率的改变，社会保障财富的差异。我们的研究发现，在德国的背景下，行为效应在统计上显著但在经济上影响较小。

为什么雇主会建立退休储蓄计划？来自州“自动个人退休账户”（Auto-IRA）政策的证据

Adam Bloomfield, Lucas Goodman, Manita Rao, and Sita Slavov #32817

Abstract: Several states have recently attempted to boost retirement saving by adopting “auto-IRA” policies that require employers not currently offering an employer-sponsored retirement plan (ESRP) to either (1) establish an ESRP or (2) enroll employees in state-facilitated Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs). We identify the effect of these state retirement plan mandates on firm decisions to offer ESRPs, treating the gradual rollout of these policies across states and employer size categories as a series of “experiments.” Using U.S. tax microdata, we estimate that at least 30,000 firms have been induced to offer an ESRP by these policies, although there is substantial heterogeneity in these effects across firm and worker characteristics. This effect is large considering that, for employers, establishing and maintaining an ESRP is more costly than utilizing the state-facilitated IRAs. We explore both rational and behavioral explanations for why firms might choose the higher-cost approach to complying with auto-IRA policies.

摘要：最近，一些州通过实施“自动个人退休账户”（Auto-IRA）政策，试图提高退休储蓄率。这些政策要求目前尚未提供雇主赞助退休计划（ESRP）的雇主，要么（1）建立一个ESRP，要么（2）将员工注册到由州政府主导的个人退休账户（IRA）中。我们通过将这些政策在各州和不同雇主规模类别中的逐步推广视为一系列“实验”，来识别这些州退休计划强制措施对企业是否提供ESRP决策的影响。利用美国的税务微观数据，我们估计至少有30,000家企业受这些政策的影响，选择提供ESRP，尽管这种影响在不同企业和员工特征之间存在显著差异。考虑到对于雇主而言，建立和维护ESRP比使用州主导的IRA成本更高，这一影响显得尤为显著。我们探讨了企业为何可能选择这种更高成本方式来遵守自动IRA政策的理性和行为解释。

作为总供给冲击的相对价格变化再探：理论与证据

Hassan Afrouzi, Saroj Bhattarai, and Edson Wu #32816

Abstract: We provide theory and evidence that relative price shocks can cause aggregate inflation and act as aggregate supply shocks. Empirically, we show that exogenous positive energy price shocks have a positive impact not only on headline but also on U.S. core inflation while depressing U.S. real activity. In a two-sector monetary model with upstream and downstream sectors and heterogeneous price stickiness, we analytically characterize how upstream shocks propagate to prices. Using panel IV local projections, we show that the responsiveness of sectoral PCE prices to energy price shocks is in line with model predictions. Motivated by post-COVID inflation in the U.S., a model experiment shows that a one-time relative price shock generates persistent movements in headline and core inflation similar to those observed in the data, even in the absence of aggregate slack. The model also emphasizes that monetary policy stance plays an important role in propagation of such shocks.

摘要：我们提供了理论和证据，表明相对价格冲击可以导致总体通胀，并作为总供给冲击发挥作用。实证研究表明，外生的正向能源价格冲击不仅对整体通胀产生正面影响，还对美国核心通胀产生正面影响，同时抑制了美国的实际经济活动。在一个包含上游和下游部门以及价格粘性异质性的双部门货币模型中，我们从理论上分析了上游冲击如何传导到价格。通过使用面板工具变量的局部预测方法，我们展示了各部门个人消费支出（PCE）价格对能源价格冲击的响应与模型预测一致。受美国新冠疫情后通胀的启发，模型实验表明，一次性相对价格冲击可以在没有总体经济疲软的情况下，引发类似于数据中观察到的整体和核心通胀的持续波动。模型还强调，货币政策立场在此类冲击的传导中发挥了重要作用。

往期精选：

      重磅：学术财经•学术笔记全汇总

重磅：学术财经全球价值链专题学术笔记大汇总（附下载链接失效学术笔记推文）

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【学术笔记·第35篇】日本生产者价格指数理论与实证：最终需求-中间需求加总系统

【学术笔记·第34篇】北美自由贸易的贸易和福利影响估计

【学术笔记 第33篇】 英属印度时期铁路：交通基础设施的影响评估（AER）

【学术笔记 第32篇】 技术、地理和贸易(经典EK模型）

【学术笔记 第31篇】2018年贸易战对美国物价和福利的影响

【学术笔记 第30篇】全球价值链和国家部门层面实际有效汇率