隐性债务揭示

Sebastian Horn, David Mihalyi, Philipp Nickol, and César Sosa-Padilla #32947

Abstract: How reliable are public debt statistics? This paper quantifies the magnitude, characteristics, and timing of hidden debt by tracking ex post data revisions across a comprehensive new database of more than 50 vintages of World Bank debt statistics. In a sample of debt data covering 146 countries and 53 years, the paper establishes three new stylized facts: (i) debt statistics are systematically under-reported; (ii) hidden debt accumulates in boom years and tends to be revealed in bad times, often during IMF programs and sovereign defaults; and (iii) in debt restructurings, higher hidden debt is associated with larger creditor losses. The novel data is used to numerically discipline a quantitative sovereign debt model with hidden debt accumulation and an endogenous monitoring decision that triggers revelations. Model simulations show that hidden debt has adverse effects on default risk, debt-carrying capacity and asset prices and is therefore welfare detrimental.

摘要：公共债务统计数据有多可靠？本文通过追踪超过50个版本的世界银行债务统计数据的修订情况，量化了隐性债务的规模、特征和揭示时间。在覆盖146个国家、53年的债务数据样本中，本文提出了三个新的典型事实：（i）债务统计数据系统性地被低报；（ii）隐性债务在经济繁荣时期积累，往往在经济不景气时被揭示，尤其是在国际货币基金组织（IMF）项目和主权违约期间；（iii）在债务重组中，较高的隐性债务与更大的债权人损失相关联。本文使用这一新数据来构建一个包含隐性债务积累和触发揭示的内生监控决策的定量主权债务模型。模型模拟显示，隐性债务对违约风险、债务承载能力和资产价格产生负面影响，因此对社会福利有害。 

黑人赔偿与儿童福祉：框架与政策考量

Lisa A. Gennetian, Christina M. Gibson-Davis, and William Darity #32931

Abstract: We offer a child-centric framework for reparations with considerations for policy and implications for child descendants of enslaved African Americans. We apply economic theory of human capital integrated with the theories of bioecological developmental systems to illustrate the multilayered aspects of harm from the legacy of slavery and racism. Our curation of estimates shows that relative to white peers, black children bear more than double the risk in outcomes unfavorable to educational and economic prosperity from birth through young adulthood. We also find that enduring racial wealth differences are larger among households with children than without children, with the child household racial wealth gap in 2019 remaining comparable to that seen 60 years ago. Simulations suggest that a wealth transfer of $130,000 per child during early childhood reduces the black-white gap in high school graduation by 13 percentage points and increases college attendance by 26 percentage points. A review of existing U.S. reparations initiatives shows that few include direct financial transfers or other forms of investments specifically for black families or children. Based on a contemporary survey, we find that black parents with young children express support for reparations in the form of direct cash payments as well as other forms of financial assistance.

摘要：我们提出了一个以儿童为中心的赔偿框架，重点关注政策和对被奴役的非裔美国人后代儿童的影响。我们运用人力资本的经济理论，并结合生物生态发展系统理论，来阐明奴隶制和种族主义遗留问题带来的多层次伤害。我们的估算结果显示，相较于白人同龄人，黑人儿童在从出生到青年期的教育和经济不利结果方面，承担的风险超过两倍。此外，我们还发现，拥有孩子的家庭中的长期种族财富差异比没有孩子的家庭更大，2019年儿童家庭的种族财富差距与60年前相当。模拟结果表明，在儿童早期每名孩子转移13万美元的财富，可以将黑人和白人之间的高中毕业率差距缩小13个百分点，大学入学率差距缩小26个百分点。对现有美国赔偿计划的审查显示，只有少数计划包含直接的财务转移或为黑人家庭或儿童提供的其他形式的投资。基于当代的一项调查，我们发现有年幼孩子的黑人父母支持通过直接现金支付以及其他形式的经济援助来进行赔偿。 

预期每股收益× 滞后市盈率

Itzhak Ben-David and Alex Chinco #32942

Abstract: All of asset-pricing theory currently stems from one key assumption: price equals expected discounted payoff. And much of what we think we know about discount rates comes from studying a particular kind of expected payoff: the earnings forecasts in analyst reports. Researchers typically access these numbers through an easy-to-use database and never read the underlying documents. This is unfortunate because the text of each report contains an explicit description of how the analyst priced their own earnings forecast. We study a sample of 513 reports and find that most analysts use a trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio not a discount rate. Instead of computing the present value of a company’s future earnings, they ask: “How would a firm with similar earnings have been priced last year?” Even if other investors do things differently, it does not make sense to put discount rates at the center of every asset-pricing model if market participants do not always use one. There are other options. Trailing twelve-month P/E ratios account for 91% of the variation in analysts’ price targets.We construct a new kind of asset-pricing model around this fact and show that it explains the market response to earnings surprises.

摘要：当前所有资产定价理论都源于一个关键假设：价格等于预期折现回报。而我们对折现率的理解大多来自对某种特定的预期回报的研究，即分析师报告中的收益预测。研究人员通常通过一个便捷的数据库获取这些数据，而不会阅读相关的原始文档。这是令人遗憾的，因为每份报告的文本都包含了分析师如何为他们的收益预测定价的明确描述。我们研究了513份报告样本，发现大多数分析师使用的是滞后市盈率 (P/E)，而不是折现率。他们不是计算公司未来收益的现值，而是问：“去年类似收益的公司是如何定价的？” 即使其他投资者采用不同的方法，也没有理由在每个资产定价模型中都将折现率置于核心地位，因为市场参与者并不总是使用它。还有其他选择。滞后12个月的市盈率解释了分析师目标价格变化的91%。我们基于这一事实构建了一种新的资产定价模型，并展示了它如何解释市场对收益意外的反应。 

对现任者的援助：新冠疫情救助的选举后果

Jeffrey Clemens, Julia A. Payson, and Stan Veuger #32962

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented levels of federal transfers to state governments. Did this funding increase benefit incumbent politicians electorally? Identifying the effect of revenue windfalls on voting is challenging because whatever conditions led to the influx of cash might also benefit or harm incumbents for other reasons. We develop an instrument that allows us to predict allocations to states based on variation in congressional representation. We find that incumbents in state-wide races in 2020, 2021, and 2022 performed significantly better in states that received more relief funding due to their overrepresentation in Congress. These results are robust across specifications and after adjusting for a variety of economic and political controls. We consistently find that the pandemic-period electoral advantage of incumbent politicians in states receiving more aid substantially exceeds the more modest advantage politicians in these states enjoyed before the pandemic. This paper contributes to our understanding of economic voting and the incumbency advantage during times of crisis as well as the downstream electoral consequences of both the COVID-19 pandemic and of unequal political representation at the federal level.

摘要：新冠疫情导致联邦向州政府转移了前所未有的资金。这些资金的增加是否在选举中有利于现任政治家？识别这类财政盈余对投票的影响是具有挑战性的，因为导致资金涌入的条件可能也会因其他原因使现任者受益或受损。我们开发了一种工具变量，基于国会代表比例的差异来预测各州的拨款分配。研究发现，在2020年、2021年和2022年各州范围内的选举中，因在国会中拥有较高代表性而获得更多救助资金的州，现任者的表现显著更好。这些结果在不同的模型规范中都具有稳健性，并且在调整了各种经济和政治因素后依然成立。我们一致发现，相较于疫情前现任者在这些州的相对适度的优势，疫情期间在获得更多援助的州，现任者在选举中的优势显著增加。本文为我们理解经济投票和危机时期的现任者优势提供了新见解，并探讨了新冠疫情及联邦层面不平等政治代表性带来的后续选举影响。

将‘金融’引入‘公共财政’：资本利得税理论

Mark A. Aguiar, Benjamin Moll, and Florian Scheuer #32951

Abstract: Standard optimal capital tax theory abstracts from modeling asset prices, making it unsuitable for thinking about capital gains and wealth taxation. We study optimal redistributive taxation in an environment with asset price changes, adopting the modern finance view that asset prices fluctuate not only because of changing cash flows, but also due to other factors (“discount rates”). We show that the optimal tax base (i) generally differs from the case with constant asset prices, and (ii) depends on the sources of asset-price changes. Whenever asset prices fluctuate, and are not exclusively driven by cash flow changes, taxes must target realized trades and generally involve a combination of realization-based capital gains and dividend taxes. This result stands in contrast to the classic Haig-Simons comprehensive income tax concept, as well as recent proposals for wealth or accrual-based capital gains taxes.

摘要：标准的最优资本税理论忽略了对资产价格的建模，因此不适用于考虑资本利得税和财富税。我们研究了在资产价格变化环境下的最优再分配税收政策，并采用现代金融视角，认为资产价格不仅因现金流的变化而波动，还受到其他因素（如“折现率”）的影响。我们证明了最优税基：(i) 通常不同于资产价格恒定的情况，(ii) 取决于资产价格变化的来源。当资产价格波动且不仅仅由现金流变化驱动时，税收必须针对已实现的交易，通常包括基于实现的资本利得税和股息税的组合。该结果与经典的Haig-Simons全面所得税概念以及最近提出的财富税或基于应计资本利得税的建议形成对比。

绿色债券：新标签，旧项目

Pauline Lam and Jeffrey Wurgler #32960

Abstract: Green finance emphasizes “additionality,” meaning funded projects should offer distinct environmental benefits beyond standard practice. Analysis of U.S. corporate and municipal green bonds, however, indicates that the vast majority of green bond proceeds is used for refinancing ordinary debt, continuing ongoing projects, or initiating projects without green aspects that are novel for the issuer. Only 2% of corporate and municipal green bond proceeds initiate projects with clearly novel green features. Investors and market participants also do not distinguish among levels of additionality: Offering yields, announcement effects, green bond index inclusion, and green bond fund holdings are uncorrelated with additionality.

摘要：绿色金融强调“附加性”，意味着所资助的项目应提供超越标准实践的显著环境效益。然而，对美国公司和市政绿色债券的分析表明，绝大多数绿色债券的资金用于再融资普通债务、继续进行现有项目或启动对发行者而言并无绿色新特点的项目。仅有2%的公司和市政绿色债券资金被用于启动具有明显绿色创新特征的项目。投资者和市场参与者也未能区分附加性水平：发行收益率、公告效应、绿色债券指数的纳入以及绿色债券基金的持有情况与附加性无关。

新的数字鸿沟

Mayana Pereira, Shane Greenstein, Raffaella Sadun, Prasanna Tambe, Lucia Ronchi Darre, Tammy Glazer, Allen Kim, Rahul Dodhia, and Juan Lavista Ferres #32932

Abstract: We build and analyze new metrics of digital usage that leverage telemetry data collected by Microsoft during operating system updates across forty million Windows devices in U.S. households. These measures of US household digital usage are much more comprehensive than those made available through any existing commercial or government survey. We construct representations of devices in ZIP codes and find evidence of significant variation in usage reflecting an urban-rural divide. We also show the existence of substantial disparities in usage even within narrowly defined Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Income and education correlate with these observed differences. These effects are large and suggest digital literacy gaps that extend beyond the availability of essential IT infrastructure at the local level. These findings call for interventions beyond the traditional focus on infrastructure access and address usage and skills development. The indices are made publicly available to support future research.

摘要：我们构建并分析了新的数字使用指标，这些指标利用微软在操作系统更新期间从美国四千万台Windows设备收集的遥测数据。这些美国家庭数字使用的度量比现有的任何商业或政府调查提供的数据更加全面。我们构建了基于邮政编码的设备使用情况的表示，并发现了反映城乡差异的显著使用差异。同时，我们还展示了即使在严格定义的大都市统计区内，也存在明显的使用差距。收入和教育水平与这些观察到的差异高度相关。这些影响很大，表明数字素养的差距不仅仅是由本地IT基础设施的可用性决定的。这些发现表明需要采取超越传统基础设施接入的干预措施，重点关注数字使用和技能发展。我们公开了这些指数，以支持未来的研究。

早期儿童养育干预对儿童学习的影响：系统评价与元分析

Kimberly Dadisman, Andre Nickow, and Philip Oreopoulos #32959

Abstract: Parenting is widely considered to be among the most important influences on early childhood (EC) development. But to what extent and under what circumstances can EC parenting programs improve child learning outcomes? While substantial progress has been made toward addressing these questions in recent years, there have been few attempts to systematically synthesize the evidence thus far with a view toward scaling and policy implications. This paper works toward filling this gap through a systematic review including both a quantitative meta-analysis and a detailed narrative analysis of randomized evaluations that test the impacts of EC parenting programs on learning outcomes. We find that these programs generate substantial effects across a wide range of contexts, and that the largest impacts are associated with programs that are conducted in low- or middle-income countries and that use curricula focusing on cognitive stimulation. Group parenting programs tend to yield effect sizes that are, on average, comparable to home visiting programs, typically at substantially lower costs. Qualitative analysis of evaluations of scaled interventions reveals that administrative implementation barriers rather than program ineffectiveness likely represent the primary impediment to stronger impact. We conclude by reflecting on implications for theory, policy, and priorities for future research.

摘要：养育被广泛认为是对早期儿童（EC）发展最重要的影响因素之一。但在何种情况下，早期儿童养育项目可以改善儿童的学习成果？近年来，虽然在解决这些问题上取得了重大进展，但迄今为止，几乎没有系统地综合现有证据以考虑推广和政策影响。本文通过系统评价弥补了这一空白，包括定量元分析和详细叙述分析，重点评估了测试早期儿童养育项目对学习结果影响的随机试验。我们发现，这些项目在广泛的背景下产生了显著效果，其中在低收入或中等收入国家开展的、侧重于认知刺激的课程效果最大。团体养育项目的效果通常与入户探访项目相当，但成本显著更低。对大规模干预的评估进行的定性分析显示，行政实施障碍而非项目无效性，可能是影响效果的主要阻碍。我们最后探讨了这些发现对理论、政策及未来研究重点的启示。

杠杆回报：私募股权中使用新债务支付回报如何影响公司、员工、债权人和投资者

Abhishek Bhardwaj, Abhinav Gupta, and Sabrina T. Howell #32948

Abstract: Private equity (PE) managers often generate financial returns without selling the portfolio company by leveraging company assets or cash flows. We study one such “leveraged payout” transaction, the dividend recapitalization (DR). As large, high-quality firms are selected for DRs, we identify causal effects using PE relationship bank CLO underwriting. DRs induced by cheap credit make firms riskier, with higher bankruptcy and failure rates, but also more IPOs and revenue growth. DRs increase deal returns but reduce wages, pre-existing loan prices, and fund returns (possibly reflecting moral hazard via new fundraising), pointing to negative implications for employees, pre-existing creditors, and investors.

摘要：私募股权（PE）管理者经常通过杠杆化公司资产或现金流，而无需出售投资组合公司来实现财务回报。我们研究了其中一种“杠杆回报”交易，即股息再融资（Dividend Recapitalization, DR）。由于DR通常针对大型、高质量的公司，我们通过PE关系银行的CLO（担保贷款凭证）承销来识别其因果效应。通过廉价信贷促成的DR交易使公司风险增加，破产和失败率上升，但同时也带来了更多的IPO和收入增长。DR提高了交易回报，但降低了员工工资、现有贷款的价格以及基金回报（可能反映了通过新一轮募资产生的道德风险），这表明对员工、现有债权人和投资者可能带来负面影响。

在欧洲央行货币周期中的中东欧和东南欧（CESEE）国家的韧性

Joshua Aizenman and Jamel Saadaoui #32957

Abstract: We investigate the resilience of CESEE countries during ECB monetary cycles after the entrance of ten countries to the EU in 2004. Undeniably, these countries have experienced a ‘miracle’ growth during the 2000s decade. However, several obstacles appeared following the global financial crisis and the euro crisis. In many CESEE countries, the quality of institutions has stalled, or even worse, has known a deterioration. Our investigation examines how fundamental and institutional variables influence cross-country resilience regarding exchange rates, interest rates, stock prices, inflation, and growth during the subsequent monetary cycles. Specifically, we focus on five ECB tightening and easing cycles observed during 2005-2023. Cross-sectional regressions reveal that limiting inflation, active management of precautionary buffers of international reserves, current account surpluses, better financial development, and institution quality are important predictors of resilience in the next cycle. The panel regressions show that the US shadow rate strongly influences resilience during the ECB monetary cycles. Besides, various asymmetries are discovered for current account balances, international reserves, and fuel import shares during tightening cycles. Panel quantile regressions detect asymmetries along the distribution of the dependent variables for financial development, central bank independence, and the inflation rate preceding the cycles. These findings may provide guidelines that are useful for returning to the trajectory observed before the euro crisis by identifying the main fundamental and institutional variables that enhance the resilience of CESEE.

摘要：我们研究了自2004年十个国家加入欧盟以来，欧洲央行（ECB）货币周期中中东欧和东南欧（CESEE）国家的韧性。不可否认，这些国家在2000年代经历了“奇迹般”的增长。然而，在全球金融危机和欧元危机之后，出现了诸多障碍。在许多CESEE国家，制度质量停滞不前，甚至有所恶化。我们的研究探讨了基本经济变量和制度因素如何影响各国在随后的货币周期中，针对汇率、利率、股价、通货膨胀和经济增长的韧性表现。我们特别关注了2005年至2023年期间观察到的五个欧洲央行紧缩和宽松周期。跨国回归分析显示，控制通胀、积极管理国际储备的预防性缓冲、经常账户盈余、良好的金融发展和高质量的制度是预测下一个周期韧性的关键因素。面板回归分析显示，美国的影子利率对欧洲央行货币周期中的韧性有很大影响。此外，在紧缩周期中，经常账户余额、国际储备和燃料进口份额方面存在多种不对称性。面板分位数回归还发现，金融发展、中央银行独立性和周期前的通货膨胀率在因变量分布中表现出不对称性。这些研究结果为回归至欧元危机前的增长轨迹提供了有用的指导，帮助识别增强CESEE国家韧性的主要基本和制度性变量。

投票规则、投票率与经济政策

Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons, and Jérôme Schäfer #32941

Abstract: In recent years, voter ID laws and convenience voting have generated heated partisan debates. To shed light on these policy issues, we survey the recent evidence on the institutional determinants and effects of voter turnout and broaden the perspective beyond the most debated rules. We begin by discussing the importance of electoral participation both for its consequences on policy choices and for democratic legitimacy. Building on a simple cost-benefit model of voting, we then review (quasi)-experimental work studying the effects of voting procedures and of other election rules. Voting procedures (which determine how people vote) primarily affect the cost of participation. The obstacles they create matter more when they occur ahead of the election, when the stakes are not salient (e.g., voter registration requirements), and less when parties mobilize voters against them and when alternative ways to vote exist (e.g., when people can choose whether to vote by mail or in person). Election rules upstream from the election (such as campaign finance laws) and downstream (such as the use of proportional representation vs. plurality rule to map vote choices into a set of election winners) mostly operate through benefits, for instance by affecting electoral competitiveness and the number of candidates. We conclude by highlighting questions for future research.

摘要：近年来，选民身份法和便捷投票引发了激烈的党派辩论。为了解决这些政策问题，我们回顾了关于选民投票率的制度决定因素和影响的最新证据，并将视角扩展到超出最受争议的规则之外。我们首先讨论了选举参与的重要性，不仅因为它对政策选择的影响，还因为它对民主合法性的意义。基于一个简单的投票成本收益模型，我们回顾了研究投票程序及其他选举规则的（准）实验性研究。投票程序（决定人们如何投票）主要影响参与的成本。当这些障碍出现在选举之前、当选举利害关系不显著时（如选民登记要求），它们的影响更大；而当政党动员选民应对这些障碍并提供替代投票方式（如选择邮寄投票或现场投票）时，影响较小。选举前期的选举规则（如竞选财务法）和选举后期的规则（如使用比例代表制或多数制来确定获胜者）主要通过影响收益来起作用，例如通过影响选举竞争性和候选人数量。我们最后指出了未来研究的若干问题。

古诺竞争、信息反馈与实际效率

Lin William Cong, Xiaohong Huang, Siguang Li, and Jian Ni #32944

Abstract: We revisit the relationship between firm competition and real efficiency in a novel setting with informational feedback from financial markets. Although intensified competition can decrease market concentration in production, it reduces the value of proprietary information (e.g., market prospects) for speculators and discourages information production and price discovery in financial markets. Therefore, competition generates non-monotonic welfare effects through two competing channels: market concentration and information production. When information reflected in stock prices is sufficiently valuable for production decisions, competition can harm both consumer welfare and real efficiency. Our results are robust under cross-asset trading and learning and highlight the importance of considering the interaction between product market and financial market in antitrust policy, e.g., concerning the regulation of horizontal mergers.

摘要：我们在一个具有金融市场信息反馈的新情境下，重新审视了企业竞争与实际效率之间的关系。尽管竞争加剧可以降低生产市场的集中度，但它也会减少投机者对专有信息（如市场前景）的价值，从而抑制金融市场中的信息生产和价格发现。因此，竞争通过两个相互对立的渠道（市场集中度和信息生产）对福利产生非单调影响。当股票价格中反映的信息对生产决策具有足够的价值时，竞争可能会损害消费者福利和实际效率。我们的结果在跨资产交易和学习的情况下依然稳健，并强调在反垄断政策中考虑产品市场与金融市场互动的重要性，特别是在涉及横向并购的监管时。

衡量监管的成本与收益

Matilde Bombardini, Francesco Trebbi, and Miao Ben Zhang #32955

Abstract: This article discusses recent methodological innovations in the area of cost and benefit assessment of government regulation, in both a prospective and retrospective sense. Much of the extant progress is presented on the front of private costs of compliance. Private benefits, social costs, and social benefits remain much less systematically organized and more arduous to quantitatively assess, mostly due to the difficulty of standardizing partial and general equilibrium counterfactuals. We offer a discussion of potential future methodological improvements in cost-benefit analysis.

摘要：本文讨论了在政府监管的成本与收益评估领域中，前瞻性和回顾性方面的最新方法创新。目前的进展大多集中在合规的私人成本方面，而私人收益、社会成本和社会收益则仍然缺乏系统性组织，定量评估也更加困难，这主要是因为难以标准化部分均衡和一般均衡的反事实分析。我们讨论了在成本效益分析中未来可能的改进方法。

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