【顶刊速递】AER《美国经济评论》 2024年9月期刊目录及摘要

The American Economic Review (AER) is a general-interest economics journal. Established in 1911, the AER is among the nation's oldest and most respected scholarly journals in economics. The journal publishes 12 issues per year containing articles on a broad range of topics.

《美国经济评论（AER）》由美国经济学会主办，1911年创立，所刊文章涉及经济学各个领域，是美国经济学界最古老、最受人尊敬的经济学专业学术期刊之一。在经济学领域，被视为最有学术声望的重要期刊之一，与JPE、QJE、RES、ECMA合称经济学“五大刊”，堪称经济学皇冠上的明珠。其文献代表着对经济学研究以及对经济现象最影响深远的认识。点击文末“阅读原文”可跳转AER期刊官网。

注：中文摘要为机翻内容，未完全校对。

文章目录

中英摘要

Abstract: I propose and test a new channel through which covered interest rate parity (CIP) deviations can affect bank lending in emerging economies. I argue that when CIP deviations exist, banks attempt to arbitrage them. To do so, banks must borrow in a particular currency. When this currency is scarce, bank lending in the currency required to arbitrage decreases, while they use this currency in their arbitrage activities. I test this channel by exploiting differences in the abilities of Peruvian banks to arbitrage CIP deviations. I find evidence that supports the proposed channel.

我提出并检验了一种新的渠道，通过这种渠道，有保利率平价（CIP）偏差可以影响新兴经济体的银行贷款。我认为，当 CIP 偏差存在时，银行会试图套利。为此，银行必须借入特定货币。当这种货币稀缺时，银行以套利所需的货币发放的贷款就会减少，同时银行在套利活动中也会使用这种货币。我利用秘鲁银行对 CIP 偏差进行套利的能力差异，对这一渠道进行了检验。我发现有证据支持所提出的渠道。

Abstract: Experiments suggest that people fail to take into account interdependencies between their choices—they do not broadly bracket. Researchers often instead assume people narrowly bracket, but existing designs do not test it. We design a novel experiment and revealed preference tests for how someone brackets their choices. In portfolio allocation under risk, social allocation, and induced-value shopping experiments, 40–43 percent of subjects are consistent with narrow bracketing, and 0–16 percent with broad bracketing. Adjusting for each model's predictive precision, 74 percent of subjects are best described by narrow bracketing, 13 percent by broad bracketing, and 6 percent by intermediate cases.

实验表明，人们没有考虑到他们的选择之间的相互依存关系--他们没有一个广泛的框架。研究人员通常会假设人们存在“狭窄框架效应”，但现有的设计并未对此进行测试。我们设计了一个新颖的实验，并对人们如何划分选择范围进行了揭示偏好测试。在风险下的投资组合分配、社会分配和诱导价值购物实验中，40%-43% 的受试者符合狭窄框架效应，0-16% 的受试者具有广泛的选择框架。根据每个模型的预测精度进行调整后，74% 的受试者最符合狭窄框架效应，13% 具有广泛框架效应，6% 符合中间情况。

Abstract: We identify exposure to political risk by exploiting a unique variation around land lease extension protection after 2047 in Hong Kong's housing market due to historical arrangements. Relative to properties that have been promised an extension protection, those with unprotected leases granted by the current government are sold at a discount of 8 percent; those with colonial leases suffer an additional discount of 8 percent. Incorporating estimated structural parameters that suggest an additional 20 percent ground rent after 2047, our model matches empirical discounts well across lease horizons. Discounts increase over time, particularly in areas with greater pessimism about the city's future.

我们利用香港房地产市场因历史安排而导致的 2047 年后土地租约延期保护的独特变化来识别政治风险。相对于已承诺获得延期保护的物业，那些由现任政府批出的不受保护租约的物业以 8% 的折扣出售；而那些拥有历史租约的物业则额外折价 8%。我们的模型纳入了估算的结构参数，这些参数表明 2047 年后地租将增加 20%，因此我们的模型很好地匹配了不同租期的经验折扣。折扣随着时间的推移而增加，尤其是在对城市未来更加悲观的地区。

Abstract: We study how social organization shapes patterns of economic interaction and the effects of national policy, focusing on the distinction between age-based and kin-based groups in sub-Saharan Africa. Motivated by ethnographic accounts suggesting that this distinction affects redistribution, we analyze a cash transfer program in Kenya and find that in age-based societies there are consumption spillovers within the age cohort, but not the extended family, while in kin-based societies we find the opposite. Next, we document that social structure shapes the impact of policy by showing that Uganda's pension program had positive effects on child nutrition only in kin-based societies.

我们研究了社会组织如何塑造经济互动模式和国家政策的影响，重点是撒哈拉以南非洲地区基于年龄的群体和基于亲属的群体之间的区别。人种学的研究表明，这种区分会影响再分配。受此启发，我们分析了肯尼亚的一项现金转移计划，发现在以年龄为基础的社会中，年龄组内存在消费溢出效应，但大家庭内没有，而在以亲属为基础的社会中，我们发现情况恰恰相反。接下来，我们通过证明乌干达的养老金计划仅在以亲属为基础的社会中对儿童营养产生了积极影响，从而证明社会结构决定了政策的影响。

Abstract: Poor entrepreneurs must frequently choose between business investment and children's education. To examine this trade-off, we exploit experimental variation in short-run microenterprise growth among a sample of Indian households and track schooling and business out-comes over eleven years. Treated households, who experience higher initial microenterprise growth, are on average one-third more likely to send children to college. However, educational investment and schooling gains are concentrated among literate-parent households, whose enterprises eventually stagnate. In contrast, illiterate-parent households experience long-run business gains but declines in children's education. Our findings suggest that microenterprise growth has the potential to reduce relative intergenerational educational mobility.

贫困企业家经常必须在企业投资和子女教育之间做出选择。为了研究这种权衡，我们利用了印度家庭样本中短期微型企业增长的实验性变化，并对十一年来的学校教育和企业成果进行了跟踪。初始微型企业增长率较高的受资助家庭，其子女上大学的可能性平均高出三分之一。然而，教育投资和学校教育收益主要集中在父母识字的家庭，这些家庭的企业最终停滞不前。与此相反，文盲父母家庭的企业获得了长期收益，但子女的受教育程度却有所下降。我们的研究结果表明，微型企业的增长有可能降低代际教育的相对流动性。

Abstract: We experimentally study the impact of relatively large enterprise loans in Egypt. Larger loans generate small average impacts, but machine learning using psychometric data reveals "top performers" (those with the highest predicted treatment effects) substantially increase profits, while profits drop for poor performers. The large differences imply that lender credit allocation decisions matter for aggregate income, yet we find existing practice leads to substantial misallocation. We argue that some entrepreneurs are overoptimistic and squander the opportunities presented by larger loans by taking on too much risk, and show the promise of allocations based on entrepreneurial type relative to firm characteristics.

我们通过实验研究了埃及相对较大的企业贷款的影响。较大的贷款产生的平均影响较小，但利用心理测量数据进行的机器学习显示，"表现最佳者"（预测处理效果最高者）的利润大幅增加，而表现不佳者的利润则有所下降。巨大的差异意味着贷款人的信贷分配决策对总收入很重要，但我们发现现有的做法导致了严重的分配不当。我们认为，一些企业家过于乐观，承担了过多的风险，从而浪费了大额贷款带来的机会，并展示了基于企业家类型而非公司特征进行分配的前景。

Abstract: Households in developing countries often face variation in the prices of consumption goods. We develop a model demonstrating that in-kind transfers will provide insurance benefits against price risk if the covariance between the marginal utility of income and price is positive. Using calorie shortfalls as a proxy for marginal utility, we find that this condition holds for low-income Indian households. Expansions in India's flagship in-kind food transfer program not only increase caloric intake but also reduce caloric sensitivity to prices. Our results contribute to ongoing debates about the optimal form of social protection programs.

发展中国家的家庭经常面临消费品价格的变化。我们建立了一个模型，证明如果收入的边际效用与价格之间的协方差为正，那么实物转移将提供抵御价格风险的保险效益。以卡路里不足作为边际效用的替代物，我们发现这一条件在印度低收入家庭中成立。印度旗舰实物食品转移计划的扩大不仅增加了卡路里摄入量，还降低了卡路里对价格的敏感性。我们的研究结果有助于当前关于社会保护计划最佳形式的讨论。

Abstract: We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in US history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics—but not employment dynamics—during the pandemic. Second, benefit expansions allow us to study the MPC of normally low-liquidity households in a high-liquidity state. These households still have high MPCs. This suggests a role for permanent behavioral characteristics, rather than just current liquidity, in driving spending behavior. Third, the mechanisms driving our results imply that temporary benefit supplements are a promising countercyclical tool.

我们的研究表明，美国历史上最大规模的失业救济金增长对支出的影响很大，而对求职的影响很小。这一发现有三个意义。首先，福利的增加对于解释大流行病期间的总支出动态很重要，但对就业动态却不重要。其次，福利扩张使我们能够研究高流动性状态下正常低流动性家庭的边际消费倾向(MPC)，这些家庭的 MPC 仍然很高。这表明，驱动消费行为的是永久行为特征，而不仅仅是当前的流动性。第三，我们的研究结果的驱动机制意味着，临时福利补充是一种很有前景的反周期工具。

Abstract: We propose a model of strategic experimentation on social networks in which forward-looking agents learn from their own and neighbors' successes. In equilibrium, private discovery is followed by social diffusion. Social learning crowds out own experimentation, so total information decreases with network density; we determine density thresholds below which agents' asymptotic learning is perfect. By contrast, agent welfare is single peaked in network density and achieves a second-best benchmark level at intermediate levels that strike a balance between discovery and diffusion.

我们提出了一个社交网络战略实验模型，在这个模型中，具有前瞻性的代理人会从自己和邻居的成功中学习。在均衡状态下，私人发现之后是社会扩散。社会学习会挤出自己的实验，因此总信息量会随着网络密度的增加而减少；我们确定了密度阈值，在该阈值以下，代理人的渐进学习是完美的。相比之下，代理人的福利在网络密度上是单峰的，并在中间水平上达到次优基准水平，从而在发现和扩散之间取得平衡。

10.Comparisons of Signals

Abstract: A signal is a description of an information source that specifies both its correlation with the state and its correlation with other signals. Extending Blackwell (1953), we characterize when one signal is more valuable than another regardless of preferences and regardless of access to other signals. This comparison is equivalent to reveal-or-refine: every realization of the more valuable signal reveals the state or refines the realization of the less valuable signal. We also study other comparisons of signals, including sufficiency, martingale dominance, and Lehmann. Reveal-or-refine is also equivalent to making any of these comparisons robust to access to other signals.

信号是对信息源的描述，它既说明了信息源与状态的相关性，也说明了信息源与其他信号的相关性。在布莱克威尔（1953）的基础上，我们描述了当一个信号比另一个信号更有价值时，无论偏好如何，也无论能否获得其他信号。这种比较等同于 "揭示或提炼"：价值更高的信号的每次实现都会揭示状态或提炼价值较低的信号的实现。我们还研究了信号的其他比较，包括充分性、马丁格尔优势和莱曼。揭示或提炼 "也等同于使这些比较中的任何一种对其他信号的获取都是稳健的。