编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（9.2-9.8）共发布 22 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送后 7 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
英国年轻人心理健康的下降
David G. Blanchflower, Alex Bryson, and David N.F. Bell #32879
Abstract: We show the incidence of mental ill-health has been rising especially among the young in the years and especially so in Scotland. The incidence of mental ill-health among young men in particular, started rising in 2008 with the onset of the Great Recession and for young women around 2012. The age profile of mental ill-health shifts to the left, over time, such that the peak of depression shifts from mid-life, when people are in their late 40s and early 50s, around the time of the Great Recession, to one’s early to mid-20s in 2023. These trends are much more pronounced if one drops the large number of proxy respondents in the UK Labour Force Surveys, indicating fellow family members understate the poor mental health of respondents, especially if those respondents are young. We report consistent evidence from the Scottish Health Surveys and UK samples from Eurobarometer surveys. Our findings are consistent with those for the United States and suggest that, although smart phone technologies may be closely correlated with a decline in young people’s mental health, increases in mental ill-health in the UK from the late 1990s suggest other factors must also be at play.
摘要：我们发现，尤其是在年轻人中，心理健康问题的发生率近年来持续上升，苏格兰的情况尤为严重。特别是，年轻男性的心理健康问题发生率自2008年全球经济大衰退开始上升，而年轻女性则在2012年左右开始上升。随着时间的推移，心理健康问题的年龄分布向左移动，抑郁症的高峰从经济大衰退期间的中年（人们40多岁到50多岁）逐渐转移到2023年的20岁初至中期。如果排除英国劳动力调查中的大量代理受访者，这一趋势更加明显，这表明家庭成员在报告时往往低估了受访者的心理健康问题，尤其是当受访者较年轻时。我们在苏格兰健康调查和Eurobarometer调查的英国样本中发现了相一致的证据。我们的研究结果与美国的情况一致，表明虽然智能手机技术可能与年轻人心理健康的下降密切相关，但自1990年代末以来英国心理健康问题的增加表明，其他因素也可能在起作用。
剖宫产种族差异的驱动因素
Adriana Corredor-Waldron, Janet Currie, and Molly Schnell #32891
Abstract: Black mothers with unscheduled deliveries are 25 percent more likely to deliver by C-section than non-Hispanic white mothers. The gap is highest for mothers with the lowest risk and is reduced by only four percentage points when controlling for observed medical risk factors, sociodemographic characteristics, hospital, and doctor or medical practice group. Remarkably, the gap disappears when the costs of ordering an unscheduled C-section are higher due to the unscheduled delivery occurring at the same time as a scheduled C-section. This finding is consistent with provider discretion—rather than differences in unobserved medical risk—accounting for persistent racial disparities in delivery method. The additional C-sections that take place for low-risk women when hospitals are unconstrained negatively impact maternal and infant health.
摘要：黑人的非计划分娩母亲进行剖宫产的可能性比非西班牙裔白人母亲高出25%。这种差距在风险最低的母亲中最大，即使控制了观察到的医疗风险因素、社会人口特征、医院和医生或医疗实践组后，差距也仅减少了四个百分点。值得注意的是，当非计划剖宫产的成本因与计划剖宫产同时进行而增加时，这一差距消失了。这一发现表明，提供者的自由裁量权——而非未观察到的医疗风险差异——是导致分娩方式中持续存在的种族差异的原因。当医院没有资源限制时，低风险女性进行的额外剖宫产对母婴健康产生了负面影响。
Capital Controls on Outflows: New Evidence and a Theoretical Framework
资本外流管制：新证据与理论框架
Roberto Chang, Andrés Fernández, and Humberto Martinez #32877
Abstract: We study capital controls on outflows (CCOs) in situations of macroeconomic and financial distress. We present novel empirical evidence indicating that CCO implementation is associated with crises and declines in GDP growth. We then develop a theoretical framework that is consistent with such empirical findings and also yields policy and welfare lessons. The theory features costly coordination failures by foreign investors which can sometimes be avoided by suitably tailored CCOs. The benefits of CCOs as coordination devices can make them optimal even if CCOs entail deadweight losses; if the latter are large, however, CCOs are detrimental for welfare. We show that optimal CCOs can suffer from time inconsistency, and also how political opportunism may limit CCO policy. Hence government credibility and reputation building emerge as critical for the successful implementation of CCOs.
摘要：我们研究了在宏观经济和金融困境中对资本外流的管制（CCOs）。我们提出了新的实证证据，表明CCOs的实施与危机和GDP增长下降有关。随后，我们构建了一个理论框架，该框架与这些实证发现一致，并提供了政策和福利方面的启示。该理论强调外国投资者协调失败的成本，而适当设计的CCOs有时可以避免这种情况。作为协调工具的CCOs可能是最优选择，即使CCOs带来无谓损失；然而，如果这些损失很大，CCOs对福利不利。我们表明，最优的CCOs可能面临时间不一致性问题，并且政治机会主义如何限制CCO政策的效果。因此，政府的公信力和信誉建设对CCOs的成功实施至关重要。
Self-, Peer-, and Teacher Perceptions under School Tracking
分轨教育下的自我、同伴与教师认知
Ofer Malamud, Andreea Mitrut, Cristian Pop-Eleches, and Miguel Urquiola #32892
Abstract: We examine student, teacher, and peer perceptions of effort, ability, performance, and self-confidence in Romania’s highly tracked schools. We find that: (1) students just above a cutoff—tracked into high-achieving classes—have less favorable self-perceptions than those just below (“big-fish-little-pond” effects); (2) students perceive peers in their classes more favorably (“in-group bias”); (3) this bias is stronger in lower-achieving classes; (4) students perceive themselves more positively than others perceive them (“illusory superiority”); (5) this bias is stronger among lower-achieving students (“Krueger-Dunning effects”). In short, being tracked into lower-achieving classes does not appear to negatively affect self-perceptions.
摘要：我们研究了在罗马尼亚高度分轨的学校中，学生、教师和同伴对努力、能力、表现和自信的认知。我们的发现如下：(1) 刚好超过分轨线被分入高成就班级的学生，其自我认知不如刚好低于分轨线的学生（“大鱼小池塘”效应）；(2) 学生对同班同学的评价更为积极（“群体内偏见”）；(3) 这种偏见在低成就班级中更为强烈；(4) 学生对自己的评价比他人对他们的评价更为正面（“虚幻的优越感”）；(5) 这种偏见在低成就学生中更为明显（“克鲁格-邓宁效应”）。简而言之，被分入低成就班级并不会对学生的自我认知产生负面影响。
Innovation Networks in the Industrial Revolution
工业革命中的创新网络
Lukas Rosenberger, W. Walker Hanlon, and Carl Hallmann #32875
Abstract: How did Britain sustain faster rates of economic growth than comparable European countries, such as France, during the Industrial Revolution? We argue that Britain possessed an important but underappreciated innovation advantage: British inventors worked in technologies that were more central within the innovation network. We offer a new approach for measuring the innovation network using patent data from Britain and France in the late-18th and early-19th century. We show that the network influenced innovation outcomes and demonstrate that British inventors worked in more central technologies within the innovation network than French inventors. Drawing on recently developed theoretical tools, and using a novel estimation strategy, we quantify the implications for technology growth rates in Britain compared to France. Our results indicate that the shape of the innovation network, and the location of British inventors within it, explains an important share of the more rapid technological change and industrial growth in Britain during the Industrial Revolution.
摘要：英国如何在工业革命期间维持比法国等欧洲可比国家更快的经济增长速度？我们认为，英国在这方面具备一个重要但被低估的创新优势：英国的发明家从事的技术在创新网络中处于更为核心的位置。我们提出了一种新的方法，通过分析18世纪末至19世纪初英国和法国的专利数据来衡量创新网络。我们展示了网络对创新结果的影响，并证明英国的发明家在创新网络中的技术比法国发明家所从事的技术更加核心。借助最近开发的理论工具，并采用一种新颖的估算策略，我们量化了这一点对英国与法国技术增长率的影响。我们的研究结果表明，创新网络的形态以及英国发明家在其中的位置，解释了英国在工业革命期间更快速的技术变革和工业增长的重要原因。
Inflation and Treasury Convenience
通货膨胀与国债便利性
Anna Cieslak, Wenhao Li, and Carolin Pflueger #32881
Abstract: Using a century of data, we show that Treasury convenience yield and inflation comove positively during the inflationary 1970s-1980s, but negatively pre-WWII and post-2000. An inflation decomposition reveals that higher supply inflation predicts higher convenience, while lower demand inflation follows higher convenience. In our model, inflationary cost-push shocks raise the opportunity cost of holding money and money-like assets, inducing higher convenience, as in 1970s-1980s. Conversely, liquidity demand shocks drive up convenience but lower consumption demand and inflation in the model, as pre-WWII and post-2000. By linking the evidence to macroeconomic drivers, our results challenge the notion that inflation directly depresses Treasury convenience.
摘要：通过一个世纪的数据，我们发现国债便利收益率与通货膨胀在1970年代至1980年代的通货膨胀时期呈正相关，但在二战前和2000年后则呈负相关。通货膨胀分解显示，更高的供应推动的通货膨胀预示着更高的便利性，而更低的需求推动的通货膨胀则伴随着更高的便利性。在我们的模型中，通货膨胀的成本推动冲击提高了持有货币和类货币资产的机会成本，从而提高了便利性，正如在1970年代至1980年代所见到的那样。相反，在模型中，流动性需求冲击推动便利性上升，但却降低了消费需求和通货膨胀，这在二战前和2000年后有所体现。通过将这些证据与宏观经济驱动因素联系起来，我们的研究结果挑战了通货膨胀直接压低国债便利性的观点。
没有国界的退休者：聚集效应与对税收的迁移反应
Salla Kalin, Antoine B. Levy, and Mathilde Muñoz #32890
Abstract: This paper investigates whether and why pensioners move across borders in response to tax rate differentials. In 2013, retirees relocating to Portugal became eligible to a full tax exemption of foreign-source pensions. Contrary to the broadly held belief that seniors "age in place", we find substantial international mobility responses to the reform, concentrated among wealthy and educated pensioners in higher-tax origin countries. The implied migration elasticity of the stock of foreign pensioners to the net-of-tax rate is large (between 1.5 and 2) and increases at longer horizons. Tax-induced retirement migration clusters in space, and exhibits amplification and hysteresis patterns consistent with agglomeration through endogenous amenities. We show such forces theoretically and empirically have significant implications for optimal tax rates, and for the limited efficacy of unilateral policy responses to tax competition, like the source-based taxation of pensions.
摘要：本文研究了退休人员是否以及为何会因为税率差异而跨国迁移。2013年，搬迁至葡萄牙的退休人员有资格获得对外国来源养老金的全额免税待遇。与普遍认为老年人“原地养老”的观点相反，我们发现有大量的国际迁移反应，这种反应主要集中在高税收来源国的富裕和受过良好教育的退休人员中。外国退休人员存量对税后税率的迁移弹性较大（在1.5到2之间），并且在更长的时间范围内有所增加。税收诱导的退休迁移在空间上形成聚集，并表现出与通过内生便利设施形成的聚集效应一致的放大效应和滞后效应。我们从理论和实证的角度展示了这些力量对最优税率的重大影响，以及对单边政策应对税收竞争（如基于来源地的养老金税收）的有限效力。
往期精选：
