雇主疫苗接种强制令对健康和就业的影响

Ashvin Gandhi, Ian Larkin, Brian McGarry, Katherine Wen, Huizi Yu, Sarah Berry, Vincent Mor, Maggie Syme, and Elizabeth White #33072

Abstract: Health care facilities considering mandating staff vaccination face a difficult tradeoff. While additional vaccination coverage will directly reduce disease transmission within the facility, the imposition of a mandate may also cause vaccine-hesitant staff to quit, which could harm patient care. To study this tradeoff, we leverage comprehensive administrative data covering virtually all US nursing homes, including payroll-based records on approximately 500 million daily nurse shifts and weekly data on COVID transmission and mortality at each facility. We use a difference-in-differences framework to estimate the impact of employer-imposed vaccine mandates at 581 nursing homes on disease spread, employment outcomes, and several patient care metrics. While mandates did slightly increase staff turnover, the effects were concentrated on staff working less than 20 hours per week, and resulted in a reduction of less than two minutes per patient-day. Furthermore, there is only limited evidence of lower levels of care at mandate facilities in typically-monitored conditions such as patient falls, pressure ulcers, or urinary tract infections. In contrast, implementing a vaccine mandate led to large increases in staff vaccinations at mandate facilities, which directly led to less transmission of and lower patient mortality from COVID. We estimate that vaccine mandates saved one patient life for every two facilities that enacted a mandate, a large effect given the typical facility has around 100 beds. Our results suggest that the health benefits of mandates far outweigh the costs in terms of reduced patient care from staff turnover.

摘要：医疗机构在考虑强制员工接种疫苗时面临一个艰难的权衡。虽然额外的疫苗接种覆盖率将直接减少设施内的疾病传播，但强制接种可能导致疫苗犹豫的员工辞职，这可能会对患者护理造成不利影响。为研究这一权衡，我们利用了覆盖几乎所有美国疗养院的综合行政数据，其中包括约5亿次护士轮班的工资记录，以及每个设施每周的COVID传播和死亡率数据。我们采用了DiD框架，估计了581家疗养院的雇主强制疫苗接种对疾病传播、就业结果及多个患者护理指标的影响。虽然强制接种略微增加了员工流失率，但这种影响主要集中在每周工作时间少于20小时的员工身上，且每位患者的日护理时间减少不到两分钟。此外，在强制接种的疗养院，关于患者跌倒、压疮或尿路感染等常见监控的护理水平下降的证据有限。相反，实施疫苗强制接种大幅增加了员工的疫苗接种率，直接导致COVID的传播减少以及患者死亡率的下降。我们估计，每两家实施强制接种的设施就挽救了一位患者的生命，这对于一个典型的100床位的疗养院来说是一个显著的效果。我们的研究结果表明，疫苗强制接种的健康效益远远超过了因员工流失导致的患者护理减少所带来的成本。

企业间推荐

Jing Cai, Wei Lin, and Adam Szeidl #33082

Abstract: We make randomized firm-to-firm referrals between 700 supplier and client firms in the industry producing the Chinese writing brush. Subsidized referrals lead to subsequent transactions and a partial crowding out of prior partners; information-only referrals have no effect. The referrals increase revenue, profit, and hours worked in supplier firms and growth-oriented client firms. Treated suppliers increase product quality, while treated clients expand product variety into higher-quality products, suggesting that the referrals enable complementary upgrading. Treated firms increase beliefs about the value of partners, search for partners, and the number of non-referred partners, suggesting that pessimistic beliefs is a key partnering friction. The referrals generate very large private and social returns.

摘要：我们在生产毛笔行业的700家供应商和客户企业之间进行了随机化的企业间推荐。补贴推荐促成了后续交易，并部分挤出了先前的合作伙伴；而仅提供信息的推荐则没有效果。推荐增加了供应商和以增长为导向的客户企业的收入、利润和工作时间。接受推荐的供应商提高了产品质量，而接受推荐的客户则扩大了产品种类，向更高质量的产品拓展，这表明推荐促进了互补的升级。接受推荐的企业增强了对合作伙伴价值的信念，增加了寻找合作伙伴的行为以及非推荐合作伙伴的数量，表明悲观的信念是合作伙伴关系的关键障碍。推荐带来了非常大的私人和社会回报。

机会的距离：高等教育沙漠与大学入学选择

Riley K. Acton, Kalena Cortes, and Camila Morales #33085

Abstract: We study how geographic access to public postsecondary institutions is associated with students’ college enrollment decisions across race and socioeconomic status. Leveraging rich administrative data, we first document substantial differences in students’ local college options, with White, Hispanic, and rural students having, on average, many fewer nearby options than their Black, Asian, suburban, and urban peers. We then show that students are sensitive to the distance they must travel to access public colleges and universities, but there are heterogeneous effects across students. In particular, we find that White and non-economically disadvantaged students respond to living far from public two-year colleges primarily by enrolling in four-year colleges, whereas Black, Hispanic, and economically disadvantaged students respond primarily by forgoing college enrollment altogether. Lastly, in a series of decomposition and simulation exercises to inform public policy efforts to increase college enrollment, especially among underrepresented minorities and low-income students, we find that differences in students’ sensitivity to distance, rather than differences in distance to the nearest college, primarily contribute to observed four-year college enrollment gaps across racial and ethnic groups.

摘要：我们研究了地理上接近公立高等教育机构如何与不同种族和社会经济地位学生的大学入学决策相关。利用丰富的行政数据，我们首先记录了学生在当地可选的大学之间的显著差异，白人、拉丁裔和农村学生平均来说比黑人、亚裔、郊区和城市学生的可选院校要少得多。接着，我们显示出学生对距离公立大学的远近非常敏感，但这种影响在学生群体间是异质的。具体来说，我们发现白人和非经济困难的学生在远离公立两年制大学时，主要选择就读四年制大学，而黑人、拉丁裔和经济困难的学生则主要通过放弃大学入学来应对。最后，通过一系列分解和模拟分析，以为促进公共政策增加大学入学率（尤其是针对代表性不足的少数族裔和低收入学生）的努力提供信息，我们发现，学生对距离的敏感性差异，而非距离最近大学的差异，主要导致了不同种族和族裔群体之间四年制大学入学率差距的存在。

企业工资效应

Patrick M. Kline #33084

Abstract: This paper reviews the literature on firm wage differences and the fixed effects methods typically used to measure these differences. High wage firms tend to be more productive, larger, more sought after by workers, and to employ more credentialed and higher wage workers. The latest evidence suggests high wage firms also tend to offer better amenities and are prone to outsourcing and mass layoffs. Reviewing the requirements of the “AKM model” of Abowd, Kramarz, and Margolis (1999), I provide a graph theoretic interpretation of the restrictions this model places on the wage changes of workers who switch employers and examine the extent to which they are satisfied in a benchmark dataset. Assumptions are provided that give these wage changes a causal interpretation and I discuss some difficulties that arise in aggregating them into a global ranking of firm wage levels. In reviewing the econometrics of variance decompositions, I argue that attention ought to focus on effect sizes rather than variance shares, which can be difficult to compare across datasets with different noise levels. Cross-fitting and clustering methods for addressing limited mobility bias are reviewed. A series of bounding and imputation exercises suggest the network pruning typically used in conjunction with cross-fitting methods has little effect on estimands of interest. A review of the latest international evidence finds that the bias corrected standard deviation of firm effects tends to be substantially elevated in less developed countries. Variance estimation methods for second step regressions of firm effects on covariates are reviewed and illustrated with an empirical application to the firm size wage premium. Finally, I discuss connections between the AKM model and the celebrated sequential auction framework of Postel-Vinay and Robin (2002), concluding with some areas for future work at this intersection.

摘要：这篇论文回顾了关于公司工资差异的文献以及通常用来衡量这些差异的固定效应方法。高工资的公司往往更具生产力、更大、更受员工青睐，并且雇佣更多有资质和高工资的员工。最新的证据表明，高工资公司也倾向于提供更好的福利，并容易出现外包和大规模裁员。通过回顾Abowd、Kramarz和Margolis (1999) 提出的“AKM模型”的要求，我从图论的角度解读了该模型对换工作员工工资变化所施加的限制，并检查了在基准数据集下这些限制的满足程度。提供了一些假设，这些假设赋予了这些工资变化因果解释，并且我讨论了在将其汇总为公司工资水平的全局排名时出现的一些困难。在回顾方差分解的计量经济学方法时，我认为应当关注效应的大小而不是方差的比例，因为在噪音水平不同的数据集中，方差比例很难进行比较。文中回顾了为应对有限流动性偏差的交叉拟合和聚类方法。一系列的边界和插补分析表明，与交叉拟合方法一起使用的网络修剪对感兴趣的估计量影响甚微。最新的国际证据显示，经过偏差校正的公司效应标准差在欠发达国家中显著上升。本文还回顾了公司效应与协变量进行二次回归的方差估计方法，并通过对公司规模工资溢价的实证应用进行了说明。最后，我讨论了AKM模型与Postel-Vinay和Robin (2002) 著名的序列拍卖框架之间的联系，并指出了一些在这一交叉领域未来的研究方向。

美联储的政治偏见感知

Pei Kuang, Michael Weber, and Shihan Xie #33071

Abstract: We conduct a survey experiment with a large, politically representative sample of U.S. consumers (5,205 participants) to study how perceptions of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed) political stance shape macroeconomic expectations and trust in the Fed. The public is divided on the Fed’s political leaning: most Republican-leaning consumers believe the Fed favors Democrats, whereas most Democrat-leaning consumers perceive the Fed as favoring Republicans. Consumers who perceive the Fed as aligned with their political affiliations tend to (1) have a more positive outlook on current and future economic conditions and express higher trust in the institution, (2) show greater willingness to pay for and are more likely to receive Fed communications, and (3) assign significantly more weight to Fed communications when updating their inflation expectations. Strong in-group favoritism generally amplifies these effects. Finally, if Trump were elected U.S. president, consumers would overwhelmingly view the Fed as favoring Republicans. The proportion of consumers viewing the Fed as an in-group would remain stable, but its composition would shift: Democrat-leaning consumers would see the Fed as less of an in-group, whereas more Republican-leaning consumers would perceive it in this way. Likewise, overall public trust in the Fed would remain steady, but trust among Democrat-leaning consumers would decline significantly, whereas it would rise among Republican-leaning consumers.

摘要：我们进行了一项包含大量具有政治代表性的美国消费者（5,205名参与者）的调查实验，以研究美国联邦储备系统（美联储）政治立场的感知如何影响宏观经济预期和对美联储的信任。公众对于美联储的政治倾向存在分歧：大多数倾向于共和党的消费者认为美联储偏向民主党，而大多数倾向于民主党的消费者则认为美联储偏向共和党。那些认为美联储与其政治立场一致的消费者往往 (1) 对当前和未来的经济状况有更积极的看法，并对美联储表现出更高的信任，(2) 更愿意支付并更有可能接收美联储的通信内容，并且 (3) 在更新其通胀预期时，对美联储通信内容赋予显著更高的权重。强烈的内群体偏好通常会放大这些效应。最后，如果特朗普当选美国总统，消费者将会普遍认为美联储偏向共和党。认为美联储是内群体的消费者比例将保持稳定，但其构成会发生变化：倾向于民主党的消费者会认为美联储不再是其内群体，而更多倾向于共和党的消费者则会有这样的看法。同样，公众对美联储的总体信任度将保持稳定，但倾向于民主党的消费者的信任度将显著下降，而倾向于共和党的消费者的信任度则会上升。

个人网络的暴政：风险投资中保持距离募资的局限性

Sabrina T. Howell, Dean Parker, and Ting Xu #33080

Abstract: The central tension in securities regulation is between protecting investors and enabling broad capital formation. Focusing on VC fund managers, we study key tools of investor protection in private markets: enforcing relationship-based fundraising and restricting eligible investors. A new policy permitting public advertising is disproportionately used by less well-networked, underrepresented fund managers and is less sensitive to local conditions. Yet it has limited take-up because track record matters at arm’s length while strong networks matter in relationship financing; underrepresented managers more often have neither. Arm’s length fundraising also imposes costs to accessing the “crowd” and verifying investors, inducing negative signaling.

摘要：证券监管的核心矛盾在于保护投资者与促进广泛资本形成之间的平衡。我们聚焦于风险投资基金管理者，研究私人市场中保护投资者的关键工具：执行基于关系的募资以及限制合格投资者。一项允许公开宣传的新政策被网络较少且代表性不足的基金管理者不成比例地使用，并且对当地条件的敏感性较低。然而，由于在保持距离的募资中过往业绩至关重要，而在关系融资中强大的网络更为重要，该政策的采用率有限；代表性不足的管理者往往两者皆无。保持距离的募资还增加了接触“群众”和验证投资者的成本，从而引发负面信号。

劳动经济学中的经验贝叶斯方法

Christopher R. Walters #33091

Abstract: Labor economists increasingly work in empirical contexts with large numbers of unit-specific parameters. These settings include a growing number of value-added studies measuring causal effects of individual units like firms, managers, neighborhoods, teachers, schools, doctors, hospitals, police officers, and judges. Empirical Bayes (EB) methods provide a powerful toolkit for value-added analysis. The EB approach leverages distributional information from the full population of units to refine predictions of value-added for each individual, leading to improved estimators and decision rules. This chapter offers an overview of EB methods in labor economics, focusing on properties that make EB useful for value-added studies and practical guidance for EB implementation. Applications to school value-added in Boston and employer-level discrimination in the US labor market illustrate the EB toolkit in action.

摘要：劳动经济学家越来越多地在包含大量特定单位参数的实证环境中工作。这些环境包括越来越多的增值研究，衡量公司、经理、社区、教师、学校、医生、医院、警察和法官等个体单位的因果效应。经验贝叶斯（EB）方法为增值分析提供了一个强大的工具箱。EB方法利用整个单位群体的分布信息来优化每个个体单位的增值预测，从而改进估计量和决策规则。本章概述了劳动经济学中的EB方法，重点介绍了使EB在增值研究中有用的特性，并提供了EB实施的实践指南。对波士顿学校增值以及美国劳动力市场中雇主歧视的应用，展示了EB工具箱的实际运用。

永久性无条件现金转移计划的福利效应：来自巴西马里卡的证据

Sidhya Balakrishnan, Roberta Costa, Johannes Haushofer, and Fábio Waltenberg #33089

Abstract: We investigate the impact of a permanent unconditional cash transfer called “Citizen’s Basic Income” in the city of Maricá, Brazil. At the time of the study, the program made monthly household-level transfers of USD 180 PPP on average to about a fourth of the city’s residents. The program is unique in that it is both unconditional and permanent, while existing programs typically only have one of these features. Between September 2021 and April 2022, we surveyed 5,182 individuals, about half of whom received the RBC. We use propensity score matching with inverse probability weights to create a matched comparison group and estimate the effect of the program on economic, social, and psychological outcomes. Our results reveal several positive welfare effects. Household income including transfers increased by 9%; consumption at the per capita level did not change significantly, but the household as a whole experienced a consumption increase of 5%. We also observe improvements in an index of children’s health and education, although the effect does not survive multiple inference correction and bounding. There was a notable displacement of other income sources, particularly labor income, which decreased by 17% among recipients, suggesting shifts to lower-paying but potentially more desirable jobs during the pandemic. The program also led to increased access to financial services, but decreased the propensity to save. These findings paint a nuanced picture of the socioeconomic benefits of unconditional cash transfers and established cash transfer administrative systems.

摘要：我们调查了在巴西马里卡市实施的一项名为“公民基本收入”的永久性无条件现金转移项目的影响。在研究期间，该项目平均每月向约四分之一的城市居民提供180美元购买力平价的家庭级别现金转移。该项目的独特之处在于它既是无条件的，也是永久性的，而现有的项目通常只具备其中一个特征。我们在2021年9月至2022年4月期间对5,182名个人进行了调查，其中约一半人接受了该项目的资金援助。我们使用倾向得分匹配法，并结合逆概率权重来创建一个匹配的对照组，以估算该项目对经济、社会和心理结果的影响。我们的结果显示了几个积极的福利效应。包括转移支付在内的家庭收入增加了9%；人均消费没有显著变化，但整个家庭的消费增加了5%。我们还观察到儿童健康和教育指数的改善，尽管这一效果在多重推断校正和边界调整后未能保持显著。此外，我们注意到其他收入来源，尤其是劳动收入，出现了显著替代，接受补助者的劳动收入下降了17%，这表明疫情期间可能出现了向报酬较低但更受欢迎的工作的转移。该项目还增加了获得金融服务的机会，但储蓄倾向有所下降。这些发现描绘了无条件现金转移及其成熟的行政系统所带来的社会经济效益的复杂图景。

重访菲利普斯曲线和贝弗里奇曲线：来自2020年代通胀激增的见解

Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti B. Eggertsson #33095

Abstract: This paper reexamines the Phillips and Beveridge curves to explain the inflation surge in the U.S. during the 2020s. We argue that the pre-surge consensus regarding both curves requires substantial revision. We propose that the Inverse-L (INV-L) New Keynesian Phillips Curve replace the standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The INV-L curve is piecewise-linear and more sensitive to labor market conditions when it crosses the Beveridge threshold — a point at which the labor market becomes excessively tight and enters a "labor shortage" regime. We introduce a modified Beveridge curve that features a near-vertical slope once the Beveridge threshold is passed, suggesting that in this region, adjustment in labor market tightness occurs almost exclusively through a drop in vacancies rather than an increase in unemployment. This feature matches the U.S. experience since the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle began in March 2022. We also observe a similar pattern in the data during five other inflation surges over the past 111 years where the Beveridge threshold was breached. We define a Beveridge-threshold (BT) unemployment rate. Once unemployment falls below this rate, policymakers must be alert to sharp inflationary pressures from demand or supply shocks. We explore several policy implications.

摘要：本文重新审视了菲利普斯曲线和贝弗里奇曲线，以解释2020年代美国的通胀激增。我们认为，关于这两条曲线的通胀前共识需要进行大幅修订。我们提出应以逆L型（INV-L）新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线替代标准的新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线。逆L型曲线是分段线性的，当它跨过贝弗里奇阈值时，对劳动力市场状况更加敏感——此时劳动力市场变得过度紧张，进入“劳动力短缺”状态。我们引入了一个经过修改的贝弗里奇曲线，该曲线在通过贝弗里奇阈值后呈现近乎垂直的斜率，这表明在这一区域内，劳动力市场紧张程度的调整几乎完全通过职位空缺减少来实现，而不是通过失业率增加。这一特征与美联储自2022年3月开始的紧缩周期以来的美国经验相符。我们还观察到，在过去111年中其他五次通胀激增期间，当贝弗里奇阈值被突破时，数据中出现了类似的模式。我们定义了一个贝弗里奇阈值（BT）失业率。一旦失业率降至该阈值以下，政策制定者必须警惕需求或供给冲击带来的强烈通胀压力。我们探讨了若干政策含义。

往期精选：

      重磅：学术财经•学术笔记全汇总

重磅：学术财经全球价值链专题学术笔记大汇总（附下载链接失效学术笔记推文）

重磅| 基金申请内部学习和交流

【学术笔记·第37篇】风险和全球供应链：我们知道什么和我们需要知道什么

【学术笔记·第36篇】各有所长：全球供应链风险敞口（Exposure）测度

【学术笔记·第35篇】日本生产者价格指数理论与实证：最终需求-中间需求加总系统

【学术笔记·第34篇】北美自由贸易的贸易和福利影响估计

【学术笔记 第33篇】 英属印度时期铁路：交通基础设施的影响评估（AER）

【学术笔记 第32篇】 技术、地理和贸易(经典EK模型）

【学术笔记 第31篇】2018年贸易战对美国物价和福利的影响

【学术笔记 第30篇】全球价值链和国家部门层面实际有效汇率