编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（9.23-9.29）共发布 27 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送前 9 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
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投资疫苗以减少COVID-19和未来大流行病的危害
Rachel Glennerster, Catherine Che, Sarrin M. Chethik, Claire T. McMahon, and Christopher M. Snyder #32984
Abstract: This paper evaluates the social value of investing in vaccine research, development, and manufacturing capacity for pandemic preparedness and response. Rapid vaccination during pandemics can significantly reduce mortality, economic losses, and societal disruptions. However, vaccine manufacturers often lack sufficient incentives for speed and capacity expansion. Strategic policies by governments and international organizations could enhance these incentives and improve equitable vaccine distribution.
摘要：这篇论文评估了在疫苗研发和生产能力上投资，以备战和应对大流行病的社会价值。在大流行期间，快速接种疫苗可以显著减少死亡、经济损失和社会混乱。然而，疫苗生产商通常缺乏加速生产和扩展产能的足够激励。政府和国际组织制定的战略性政策可以增强这些激励措施，并改善疫苗的公平分配。
技术采纳中的公平性与效率：来自数字健康的证据
Itzik Fadlon, Parag Agnihotri, Christopher Longhurst, and Ming Tai-Seale #32992
Abstract: Digital technologies are bringing vast improvements to modern society but also carry the risk of perpetuating disparities if adopted at lower rates by underserved communities. We investigate the efficiency and equity aspects of technological advancement in digital health by studying an intervention of “remote patient monitoring” that enabled patients to transmit real-time clinical data for timely treatment. The program was deployed at the Academic Medical Center UC San Diego Health among a diverse population of patients and targeted hypertension management to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. From an efficiency standpoint, we find significant and persistent reductions in cardiovascular risk, which are notable across all subgroups of gender, age, race/ethnicity, and geographic affluence. Evidence suggests both reduced frictions in the provision of care and improved health behaviors as mechanisms. The program also led to significant reductions in healthcare utilization costs from improved hypertension control. From an equity standpoint, however, we find that the longer-run health gains from the program fell short among underserved patient subpopulations, inducing inequities in the reductions in cardiovascular risk. The new technology was systematically adopted at lower rates by Black/Hispanic patients and by patients from disadvantaged geographic communities, who were less likely to either take up or adhere to the program. Overall, our analysis highlights the simultaneous promise and hazards of digital health technologies. We further provide evidence that primary care physicians and the nature of their relationship with patients can have a promising role in promoting greater and more equitable adoption of digital health.
摘要：数字技术为现代社会带来了巨大的改善，但如果服务不足的社区采用率较低，也可能加剧差距。我们通过研究一项“远程患者监测”干预措施，探讨了数字健康技术进步中的效率和公平性问题。该措施使患者能够传输实时的临床数据，以便及时治疗。这一项目在加州大学圣地亚哥健康学术医疗中心的多元化患者群体中实施，主要针对高血压管理，旨在降低心血管疾病的风险。从效率角度来看，我们发现了显著且持续的心血管风险降低，这一现象在性别、年龄、种族/族裔和地理富裕程度的所有亚群体中都有显著表现。证据表明，提供护理的摩擦减少和健康行为的改善是其背后的机制。此外，项目通过改善高血压控制，显著降低了医疗费用。然而，从公平角度来看，我们发现该项目对服务不足的患者亚群体的长期健康收益较低，导致心血管风险降低的差异。黑人/西班牙裔患者以及来自弱势地理社区的患者系统性地以较低的比率采用了这项新技术，并且这些患者更不容易参与或坚持该项目。总体而言，我们的分析突显了数字健康技术的潜力与风险并存。我们还提供了证据表明，初级保健医生及其与患者的关系在促进数字健康技术更广泛且更公平的采用中具有重要作用。
“绝望”和美国的死亡
Christopher J. Ruhm #32978
Abstract: Increases in “deaths of despair” have been hypothesized to provide an important source of the adverse mortality experiences of some groups at the beginning of the 21st century. This study examines this possibility and uncovers the following primary findings. First, mental health deteriorated between 1993 and 2019 for all population subgroups examined. Second, these declines raised death rates and contributed to the adverse mortality trends experienced by prime-age non-Hispanic Whites and, to a lesser extent, Blacks from 1999-2019. However, worsening mental health is not the predominant explanation for them. Third, to extent these relationships support the general idea of “deaths of despair”, the specific causes comprising it should be both broader and different than previously recognized: still including drug mortality and possibly alcohol deaths but replacing suicides with fatalities from heart disease, lower respiratory causes, homicides, and conceivably cancer. Fourth, heterogeneity in the consequences of a given increase of poor mental health are generally more important than the sizes of the changes in poor mental health in explaining Black-White differences in the overall effects of mental health on mortality.
摘要：“绝望导致的死亡”增加被认为是21世纪初一些群体死亡率上升的一个重要原因。本研究探讨了这一可能性，并揭示了以下主要发现。首先，从1993年至2019年，所有人口亚群体的心理健康状况都在恶化。其次，这种恶化提高了死亡率，并促使1999-2019年间，适龄非西班牙裔白人及一定程度上的黑人经历了不利的死亡趋势。然而，心理健康恶化并不是这些趋势的主要解释。第三，尽管这些关系支持“绝望导致的死亡”这一概念，但其具体原因应比先前认识到的更广泛且有所不同：依然包括药物相关死亡和可能的酒精相关死亡，但应将自杀原因替换为心脏病、下呼吸道疾病、凶杀案，甚至可能是癌症导致的死亡。第四，解释黑人与白人死亡率差异时，心理健康恶化的具体后果的差异通常比心理健康恶化幅度的差异更为重要。
生成式人工智能的快速应用
Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, and David J. Deming #32966
Abstract: Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a potentially important new technology, but its impact on the economy depends on the speed and intensity of adoption. This paper reports results from the first nationally representative U.S. survey of generative AI adoption at work and at home. In August 2024, 39 percent of the U.S. population age 18-64 used generative AI. More than 24 percent of workers used it at least once in the week prior to being surveyed, and nearly one in nine used it every workday. Historical data on usage and mass-market product launches suggest that U.S. adoption of generative AI has been faster than adoption of the personal computer and the internet. Generative AI is a general purpose technology, in the sense that it is used in a wide range of occupations and job tasks at work and at home.
摘要：生成式人工智能（AI）是一项潜在的重要新技术，但其对经济的影响取决于采用的速度和广度。本文报告了美国首次全国代表性调查的结果，探讨了在工作和家庭中生成式AI的应用情况。截至2024年8月，39%的美国18-64岁人口使用了生成式AI。超过24%的工作者在调查前一周至少使用过一次生成式AI，近九分之一的人每天都在工作中使用它。历史使用数据和大众市场产品的发布表明，美国对生成式AI的采用速度比个人电脑和互联网的采用速度更快。生成式AI是一种通用技术，因为它在工作和家庭中的广泛职业和任务中都有应用。
回收异质性的经济学
Don Fullerton and Thomas C. Kinnaman #32981
Abstract: We summarize the economics of recycling municipal solid waste. OECD data suggest that aggregate recycling rates in member countries have plateaued in recent decades. United States recycling rates for some materials remain low, even after decades of learning and participation. Major new policies may be required to increase recycling rates. Aggregate recycling targets are common in the US and OECD but may no longer be effective. We discuss many sources of recycling heterogeneity often ignored. First, recyclable materials are very different from each other. Economies and natural environments differ across space, and technologies change over time. Recycling policies that ignore heterogeneity are likely not set appropriately. If policy costs are low enough to set a unique recycling policy for each material in each locality, then a surgical recycling strategy may better serve society. Specific recycling policies for automobile batteries differ greatly from policies for yard waste, because these two materials are different. A surgical recycling policy could extend this practice, so that rules for aluminum cans differ from plastic jugs or glass bottles. Reaching future recycling targets could be frustrated by ignoring these heterogeneities across materials, locations, and time.
摘要：我们总结了市政固体废物回收的经济学。经合组织（OECD）的数据表明，成员国的总体回收率在近几十年中趋于平稳。即使经过数十年的学习和参与，美国一些材料的回收率仍然较低。要提高回收率，可能需要出台重大新政策。尽管美国和经合组织普遍设定了总体回收目标，但这些目标可能不再有效。我们讨论了许多经常被忽视的回收异质性来源。首先，可回收材料之间差异很大。不同地区的经济和自然环境存在差异，技术也随着时间变化。如果回收政策忽略了这些异质性，政策可能就不合适。如果政策成本足够低，能够为每种材料在每个地方制定独特的回收政策，那么“精准回收策略”可能更好地服务于社会。比如，汽车电池的回收政策与庭院废物的回收政策截然不同，因为这两种材料有着很大的区别。“精准回收政策”可以将这一实践扩展到铝罐、塑料壶和玻璃瓶的回收规则各不相同。如果忽视了材料、地点和时间的异质性，未来的回收目标可能会难以实现。
评估政策反事实：一种VAR-Plus方法
Tomás E. Caravello, Alisdair McKay, and Christian K. Wolf #32988
Abstract: In a rich family of linearized structural macroeconomic models, the counterfactual evolution of the macro-economy under alternative policy rules is pinned down by just two objects: first, reduced-form projections with respect to a large information set; and second, the dynamic causal effects of policy shocks. In particular, no assumptions about the structural shocks affecting the economy are needed. We propose to recover these two sufficient statistics using a ``VAR-Plus'' approach, and apply it to evaluate several monetary policy counterfactuals.
摘要：在一类丰富的线性化结构宏观经济模型中，不同政策规则下宏观经济的反事实演变仅由两个要素决定：首先，基于大信息集的简化形式预测；其次，政策冲击的动态因果效应。特别是，这不需要对影响经济的结构性冲击做出假设。我们提出使用“VAR-Plus”方法来恢复这两个足够的统计量，并应用该方法评估多种货币政策的反事实情景。
投资者差异是否影响货币政策对新兴市场的溢出效应？
Ester Faia, Karen K. Lewis, and Haonan Zhou #32986
Abstract: We re-examine monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies (EME) in the form of capital flow reversals, using sectoral-level securities holdings data for Euro Area investors. In response to a surprise monetary tightening, active investors such as investment funds re-balance their portfolios away from EME, while more passive, long term investors such as insurance funds and banks exhibit no significant reaction on average. For active investors, the reallocation out of EME appears stronger under synchronized monetary tightening between the Fed and the ECB. However, these investors may even inject more capital to EME securities when the monetary tightening surprises contain positive news about the Euro Area economy. Issuers' monetary-fiscal stability may explain the heterogeneous impact of these spillovers.
摘要：我们重新审视了货币政策溢出对新兴市场经济体（EME）的影响，特别是在资本流动逆转的形式上，利用了欧元区投资者的部门级证券持有数据。面对意外的货币紧缩，像投资基金这样的活跃投资者会重新调整其投资组合，减少对EME的投资，而保险基金和银行等更被动的长期投资者平均来看则没有显著反应。对于活跃投资者而言，当美联储和欧洲央行同时进行货币紧缩时，他们撤出EME的力度更大。然而，当货币紧缩的意外中包含对欧元区经济的正面消息时，这些投资者甚至可能向EME证券注入更多资本。发行者的货币-财政稳定性可能解释了这些溢出效应的异质性影响。
共同迈向机会
Seema Jayachandran, Lea Nassal, Matthew J. Notowidigdo, Marie Paul, Heather Sarsons, and Elin Sundberg #32970
Abstract: Many couples face a trade-off between advancing one spouse’s career or the other’s. We study this trade-off using administrative data from Germany and Sweden. We first conduct an event-study analysis of couples moving across commuting zones and find that relocation increases men’s earnings more than women’s, with strikingly similar patterns in Germany and Sweden. Using a sample of mass layoff events, we then find that couples in both countries are more likely to relocate in response to the man being laid off compared to the woman. We investigate whether these gendered patterns reflect men’s higher potential earnings or a gender norm that prioritizes men’s career advancement. We provide suggestive evidence of a gender norm using variation in norms within Germany. We then develop and estimate a model of household decision-making in which households can place more weight on the income earned by the man compared to the woman. In both countries, the estimated model can accurately reproduce the reduced-form results, including those not used to estimate the model. The results point to a role for gender norms in explaining the gender gap in the returns to joint moves.
摘要：许多伴侣面临着在推动一方职业发展或另一方职业发展之间的权衡。我们使用德国和瑞典的行政数据研究这一权衡问题。首先，我们进行了一项事件研究分析，研究跨通勤区搬迁的夫妻，发现搬迁后男性的收入增长比女性更多，且在德国和瑞典展现出惊人的相似模式。接着，我们使用一组大规模裁员事件的数据发现，夫妻在两国更有可能在男性被裁员后搬迁，而不是女性。我们探讨这些性别差异是由于男性潜在收入较高，还是反映了一种优先考虑男性职业发展的性别规范。我们提供了一些支持性证据，显示在德国内部存在的规范差异反映了这种性别规范。随后，我们开发并估算了一个家庭决策模型，其中家庭可能会更加重视男性的收入。该模型在两国都能够准确再现简化形式的结果，包括那些未用于估算模型的结果。研究结果表明，性别规范在解释伴侣共同搬迁带来的性别收入差距中起到了作用。
通过实验验证学校代金券的福利评估
Peter Arcidiacono, Karthik Muralidharan, and John D. Singleton #32968
Abstract: We leverage a unique two-stage experiment that randomized access to private school vouchers across markets as well as students to estimate the revealed preference value of school choice. To do this, we estimate several choice models on data only from control markets before turning to the treatment data for model validation. This exercise reveals that a model where school choice is constrained by ability-to-pay achieves better out-of-sample fit but still underpredicts experimental take-up of the voucher offer. We then present evidence from treatment markets that: a) the voucher offer also induced search; and b) private schools used program surplus to incentivize enrollment. Further, we show that a unified model incorporating these features can explain both the control and treatment data patterns. Estimates from that model imply that a targeted voucher program would have a marginal value of public funds (MVPF) of at least 3.
摘要：我们利用了一个独特的两阶段实验，随机分配私立学校代金券的获取机会，既在市场层面也在学生层面进行，以估算出学校选择的显性偏好价值。为此，我们首先基于仅来自控制市场的数据估算了多个选择模型，然后再使用处理数据来验证模型。这一过程显示，一个基于支付能力受限的学校选择模型虽然在样本外预测上表现更好，但仍然低估了实验中学生领取代金券的比例。接着，我们提供了处理市场的证据表明：a) 代金券的提供也引发了学校选择的搜索行为；b) 私立学校利用项目盈余激励学生入学。此外，我们展示了一个综合了这些特征的统一模型，能够解释控制组和处理组的数据显示的模式。根据该模型的估算，目标明确的代金券项目的公共资金边际价值（MVPF）至少为3。
往期精选：
