隐私保护与准确性：我们知道些什么？我们真的知道吗？让我们一探究竟！

Evan S. Totty and Thor Watson #32989

Abstract: Statistical agencies have a dual mandate to provide accurate data and protect the privacy and confidentiality of data subjects. These mandates are fundamentally at odds and therefore must be balanced: more accurate data reduces privacy, while privacy protections introduce error that reduces accuracy. Balancing accuracy and privacy requires, among other things, that we can quantify accuracy and privacy. Quantifying privacy has become easier thanks to differential privacy. Quantifying accuracy may sound easy by comparison, but there are many challenges to doing this effectively. In this paper, we first discuss some challenges associated with quantifying data accuracy. We then focus on an often-ignored challenge, which is the existence of survey error in the data being protected. We provide an overview of how privacy protection error relates to total survey error. We also summarize recent work that uses validation data to quantify the impact of privacy protection error relative to and conditional on other sources of survey error. Finally, we discuss opportunities and challenges for future work on data privacy and survey error.

摘要：统计机构肩负着提供准确数据和保护数据主体隐私与机密性的双重任务。这两项任务在本质上是对立的，因此必须在二者之间找到平衡：更准确的数据会减少隐私保护，而隐私保护会引入误差，降低数据的准确性。平衡准确性与隐私保护要求我们能够量化二者。得益于差分隐私，量化隐私保护变得更容易。相比之下，量化数据准确性看似简单，但实际上存在许多挑战。本文首先讨论了与量化数据准确性相关的一些挑战。接着，我们重点讨论了一个经常被忽视的问题，即受保护数据中存在的调查误差。我们概述了隐私保护误差如何与总调查误差相关联，并总结了最近的研究，这些研究使用验证数据来量化隐私保护误差相对于其他调查误差来源的影响及其条件。最后，我们讨论了未来在数据隐私与调查误差方面的研究机遇与挑战。

文化汇款与现代生育率

Mickael Melki, Hillel Rapoport, Enrico Spolaore, and Romain Wacziarg #32990

Abstract: We argue that migrants played a significant role in the diffusion of the demographic transition from France to the rest of Europe in the late 19th century. Employing novel data on French immigration from other European regions from 1850 to 1930, we find that higher immigration to France translated into lower fertility in the region of origin after a few decades - both in cross-region regressions for various periods, and in a panel setting with region fixed effects. These results are robust to the inclusion of a variety of controls, and across multiple specifications. We also find that immigrants who themselves became French citizens achieved lower fertility, particularly those who moved to French regions with the lowest fertility levels. We interpret these findings in terms of cultural remittances, consistently with insights from a theoretical framework where migrants act as vectors of cultural diffusion, spreading new information, social norms and preferences pertaining to modern fertility to their regions of origin.

摘要：我们认为，19世纪晚期，移民在法国人口转型向欧洲其他地区扩散的过程中发挥了重要作用。通过使用1850年至1930年间从其他欧洲地区移民到法国的全新数据，我们发现移民到法国的人数增加，在几十年后转化为移民原籍地区生育率的下降。这一现象在不同时期的跨区域回归分析和设有地区固定效应的面板模型中都得到了验证。这些结果在加入多种控制变量和不同规格的分析中仍然稳健。我们还发现，那些成为法国公民的移民实现了更低的生育率，尤其是那些迁往生育率最低的法国地区的移民。我们将这些发现解释为文化汇款的作用，符合理论框架中的观点，即移民作为文化扩散的载体，传播与现代生育相关的新信息、社会规范和偏好到其原籍地区。

西奥多·罗斯福、1912年选举与美联储的成立

Matthew S. Jaremski and David C. Wheelock #32987

Abstract: The Federal Reserve Act was the outcome of compromises among competing economic and political interests. Numerous studies examine how the act came together but largely take the makeup of Congress and the Administration as given rather than considering the unique circumstances that led to that political distribution. This paper examines how the election of 1912 changed the makeup of Congress and increased the likelihood of central banking legislation and shaped the act. The decision of Theodore Roosevelt and other Progressives to run as third-party candidates split the Republican Party and enabled Democrats to capture the White House and Congress. We show that the election produced a less polarized Congress and that newly-elected members were more likely to vote for the act. Absent their interparty split, Republicans would likely have held the White House and Congress, and any legislation to establish a central bank almost certainly would have been quite different.

摘要：《联邦储备法案》是竞争的经济和政治利益之间妥协的结果。虽然许多研究探讨了该法案的形成过程，但大多默认了国会和政府的构成，而未考虑导致这一政治分布的独特背景。本文研究了1912年选举如何改变了国会的构成，增加了通过中央银行立法的可能性，并影响了法案的内容。西奥多·罗斯福及其他进步派选择作为第三党候选人参选，分裂了共和党，使民主党得以赢得白宫和国会。我们表明，这次选举产生了一个较少两极分化的国会，且新当选的成员更有可能支持该法案。如果没有党内分裂，共和党很可能继续掌控白宫和国会，任何设立中央银行的立法几乎可以肯定会大不相同。

进入成本随增长上升

Peter J. Klenow and Huiyu Li #32974

Abstract: Over time and across states in the U.S., the number of firms is more closely tied to overall employment than to output per worker. In many models of firm dynamics, trade, and growth with a free entry condition, these facts imply that the costs of creating a new firm increase sharply with productivity growth. This increase in entry costs can stem from the rising cost of labor used in entry and weak or negative knowledge spillovers from prior entry. How entry costs vary with growth matters for welfare. For example, our findings suggest that productivity-enhancing policies will not induce entry of firms, thereby limiting the total impact of such policies on welfare.

摘要：随着时间推移和在美国各州之间，公司数量与总体就业的关联性比与每名工人的产出更紧密。在许多涉及公司动态、贸易和增长的模型中，结合自由进入条件，这些事实意味着随着生产率的增长，创办新公司的成本急剧增加。进入成本的上升可能源于用于进入市场的劳动力成本增加，以及来自先前进入的知识溢出较弱或为负。进入成本如何随着增长而变化对社会福利至关重要。例如，我们的研究结果表明，提升生产率的政策不会引发企业的大量进入，从而限制了这些政策对社会福利的总体影响。

市场与婚姻：关于美国贫困成因的多学科、多书评述论文

Elizabeth Ananat #32967

Abstract: I discuss recent books offering differing explanations for persistent U.S. poverty. Desmond (2023) argues that aid to low-income Americans is captured by more powerful market actors. I contextualize this concern as about incidence and consider both policies for changing incidence (by changing outside options) and supplemental critiques focused on reducing deadweight loss as well as reapportioning surplus. Kearney (2023) argues that declining marriage means American children grow up in less-resourced families. I suggest this decline may reflect shortfalls in “soft” skills needed to make marriage efficient in an era when men are increasingly a source of family economic instability while women’s outside options improve. I consider policies to improve soft skills and policies supporting family economic stability, which could reduce spousal-skill requirements. I conclude by encouraging engagement with the emerging policy feedback literature, which explores why popular, evidence-based policies like those discussed have not so far been adopted in the U.S..

摘要：我讨论了几本近期关于美国持续贫困原因的书籍，这些书提供了不同的解释。德斯蒙德（2023）认为，向低收入美国人的援助被更有权势的市场参与者所捕获。我将这一担忧置于“分配”的背景下，并探讨了通过改变外部选择来改变分配的政策，以及一些侧重于减少无谓损失和重新分配盈余的补充性批评。科尼（2023）则认为，婚姻的减少导致美国儿童在资源较少的家庭中长大。我提出，这一婚姻衰退可能反映了人们在婚姻中缺乏“软”技能，尤其是在男性日益成为家庭经济不稳定因素、而女性的外部选择改善的时代。我讨论了旨在提升软技能的政策，以及支持家庭经济稳定的政策，这些措施可能会减少配偶对技能的要求。最后，我鼓励关注新兴的政策反馈文献，该文献探讨了为何像本文讨论的这些广受欢迎且有证据支持的政策，迄今尚未在美国得到实施。。

健康不平等与种族、族裔及性别间的经济差距

Nicolò Russo, Rory McGee, Mariacristina De Nardi, Margherita Borella, and Ross Abram #32971

Abstract: We measure health inequality during middle and old age by race, ethnicity, and gender and evaluate the extent to which it can explain inequalities in other key economic outcomes using the Health and Retirement Study data set. Our main measure of health is frailty, which is the fraction of one's possible health deficits and is related to biological age. We find staggering health inequality: At age 55, Black men and women have the frailty, or biological age, of White men and women 13 and 20 years older, respectively, while Hispanic men and women exhibit frailty akin to White men and women 5 and 6 years older. The health deficits composing frailty reveal that most health deficits are more likely for Black and Hispanic people than for White people, with the notable exception of those requiring a diagnosis. Imputing medical diagnoses to Black and Hispanic people uncovers even larger health gaps, especially for Black men. Health inequality also emerges as a powerful determinant of economic inequality. If Black individuals at age 55 had the health of their White peers, the life expectancy gap between these two groups would halve, and the gap in disability duration would decrease by 40-70%. Other outcomes are similarly affected by health at age 55, indicating that targeted health interventions for minority groups before middle age could substantially reduce economic disparities in the quantity and quality of life.

摘要：我们通过使用《健康与退休研究》数据集，按种族、族裔和性别衡量中老年时期的健康不平等，并评估其对其他关键经济结果不平等的解释程度。我们主要的健康衡量指标是“虚弱度”，即个人可能存在的健康缺陷比例，与生物年龄相关。研究发现，健康不平等现象非常显著：在55岁时，黑人男性和女性的虚弱度或生物年龄分别相当于年长13岁和20岁的白人男性和女性，而西班牙裔男性和女性的虚弱度分别相当于年长5岁和6岁的白人男性和女性。构成虚弱度的健康缺陷表明，除需诊断的健康问题外，黑人和西班牙裔人群比白人更容易出现大多数健康缺陷。将未诊断的健康问题纳入黑人和西班牙裔人群的分析后，发现健康差距更为显著，特别是对黑人男性而言。健康不平等也是经济不平等的强大决定因素。如果55岁的黑人拥有与同龄白人相同的健康状况，黑人与白人的预期寿命差距将缩小一半，残疾时间的差距将减少40-70%。其他经济结果也同样受到55岁时健康状况的影响，表明在中年之前对少数族裔群体进行有针对性的健康干预，可能大幅减少生命数量和质量方面的经济差距。

广义单调性对平均处理效应的识别能力

Yuehao Bai, Shunzhuang Huang, Sarah Moon, Azeem Shaikh, and Edward J. Vytlacil #32983

Abstract: In the context of a binary outcome, treatment, and instrument, Balke and Pearl (1993, 1997) establish that the monotonicity condition of Imbens and Angrist (1994) has no identifying power beyond instrument exogeneity for average potential outcomes and average treatment effects in the sense that adding it to instrument exogeneity does not decrease the identified sets for those parameters whenever those restrictions are consistent with the distribution of the observable data. This paper shows that this phenomenon holds in a broader setting with a multi-valued outcome, treatment, and instrument, under an extension of the monotonicity condition that we refer to as generalized monotonicity. We further show that this phenomenon holds for any restriction on treatment response that is stronger than generalized monotonicity provided that these stronger restrictions do not restrict potential outcomes. Importantly, many models of potential treatments previously considered in the literature imply generalized monotonicity, including the types of monotonicity restrictions considered by Kline and Walters (2016), Kirkeboen et al. (2016), and Heckman and Pinto (2018), and the restriction that treatment selection is determined by particular classes of additive random utility models. We show through a series of examples that restrictions on potential treatments can provide identifying power beyond instrument exogeneity for average potential outcomes and average treatment effects when the restrictions imply that the generalized monotonicity condition is violated. In this way, our results shed light on the types of restrictions required for help in identifying average potential outcomes and average treatment effects.

摘要：在二元结果、处理和工具变量的背景下，Balke和Pearl（1993, 1997）指出，Imbens和Angrist（1994）的单调性条件在识别平均潜在结果和平均处理效应时，除了工具变量的外生性之外没有额外的识别能力，意味着当这些约束与可观测数据的分布一致时，加入单调性条件不会缩小这些参数的识别集合。本文表明，这一现象在更广泛的情境下仍然成立，即在具有多值结果、处理和工具变量的情形下，单调性条件的扩展（称为广义单调性）依然适用。我们进一步展示，只要这些更强的约束不限制潜在结果，任何比广义单调性更强的处理响应限制也会导致相同的现象。重要的是，许多之前文献中考虑的潜在处理模型都隐含广义单调性，包括Kline和Walters（2016）、Kirkeboen等人（2016）、Heckman和Pinto（2018）等研究中考虑的单调性限制类型，以及基于特定类别的加性随机效用模型的处理选择限制。通过一系列示例，我们展示了当这些限制导致广义单调性条件被违反时，潜在处理限制可以提供超越工具变量外生性的识别能力，从而帮助识别平均潜在结果和平均处理效应。我们的研究结果阐明了在识别这些效应时所需的限制类型。

佩里学前项目50年：应汲取哪些经验，忽略哪些批评？

Alison W. Baulos, Jorge Luis García, and James J. Heckman #32972

Abstract: The Perry Preschool Project, the longest-running experimental study of an early childhood education program, demonstrates how such interventions can yield long-term personal, societal, and intergenerational benefits for disadvantaged populations. The evidence is clear: investments in high-quality early childhood education and parental engagement can deliver returns even 50 years later. The program’s findings remain scientifically robust, particularly when analyzed through rigorous small-sample inference methods. The program’s findings also contradict common criticisms of preschool, as, when measured correctly, treatment effects on IQ do not fadeout. This paper draws insights from both the original founders and recent empirical studies, emphasizing the critical role of parental involvement in early education. The authors advocate for a scientific agenda focused on understanding the mechanisms behind treatment effects, rather than replicating specific programs. The analysis also underscores the broader implications of early childhood interventions for social mobility and human capital formation. Analysts of early childhood education should recognize that although credentials and formal curricula contribute to successful programs, the true measure of quality lies in adult-child interactions, which play an essential role.

摘要：佩里学前项目是迄今为止运行时间最长的关于早期儿童教育项目的实验性研究，它展示了此类干预措施如何为弱势群体带来长期的个人、社会和代际收益。证据明确表明：对高质量的早期儿童教育和家长参与的投资，即使在50年后依然能带来回报。通过严谨的小样本推断方法分析，该项目的研究结果依然科学可靠。研究结果还驳斥了对学前教育的常见批评，尤其是在正确测量后，干预对智商（IQ）的影响不会随着时间消失。本文汲取了项目最初创办者的见解及近期的实证研究，强调了家长参与在早期教育中的关键作用。作者主张，应聚焦于理解干预效果背后的机制，而不是简单地复制某个特定的项目。分析还强调了早期儿童干预对社会流动性和人力资本形成的广泛影响。研究者应认识到，虽然证书和正式课程对成功项目有贡献，但真正的质量衡量标准在于成人与儿童的互动，这在项目中起到了至关重要的作用。

我们是否在适应气候变化？

Marshall Burke, Mustafa Zahid, Mariana C. M. Martins, Christopher W. Callahan, Richard Lee, Tumenkhusel Avirmed, Sam Heft-Neal, Mathew Kiang, Solomon M. Hsiang, and David Lobell #32985

Abstract: We study whether the sensitivity of economic, health, and livelihood outcomes to climate extremes has declined over the last half century, consistent with adaptation. Understanding whether such adaptation is already occurring is central to anticipating future climate damages, to calibrating the level of ambition needed for emissions mitigation efforts, and to understanding additional investments in adaptation that could be required to avoid additional damages. Using comprehensive panel data across diverse geographies and outcomes, including data on mortality, agricultural productivity, crime, conflict, economic output, and damages from flooding and tropical cyclones, we find limited systematic evidence of adaptation to date. Across 21 outcomes we study, six show a statistically significant declining sensitivity to a changing climate, five show an increasing sensitivity, and the remainder show no statistically significant change. Our results do not imply that specific documented adaptation efforts are ineffective or certain locations have not adapted, but instead that the net effects of existing actions have largely not been successful in meaningfully reducing climate impacts in aggregate. To avoid ongoing and future damages from warming, our results suggest a need to identify promising adaptation strategies and understand how they can be scaled.

摘要：我们研究了过去半个世纪中，经济、健康和生计结果对极端气候的敏感性是否有所下降，以确定是否存在适应气候变化的迹象。了解这种适应是否已经发生，对于预测未来的气候损害、确定减排努力的必要性，以及评估为避免进一步损害所需的额外适应性投资至关重要。通过使用涵盖不同地理区域和多种结果的全面面板数据，包括死亡率、农业生产力、犯罪、冲突、经济产出以及洪水和热带气旋造成的损害数据，我们发现至今适应气候变化的系统性证据有限。在我们研究的21项结果中，6项显示出对气候变化敏感性的显著下降，5项则显示敏感性增加，其余结果没有统计学上显著的变化。我们的结果并不意味着具体的适应措施无效或某些地区没有适应，而是表明现有措施的净效应总体上未能显著减少气候影响。为了避免持续和未来的变暖损害，我们的研究结果表明，需要识别有前景的适应策略并了解如何扩大其规模。

往期精选：

      重磅：学术财经•学术笔记全汇总

重磅：学术财经全球价值链专题学术笔记大汇总（附下载链接失效学术笔记推文）

重磅| 基金申请内部学习和交流

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【学术笔记·第36篇】各有所长：全球供应链风险敞口（Exposure）测度

【学术笔记·第35篇】日本生产者价格指数理论与实证：最终需求-中间需求加总系统

【学术笔记·第34篇】北美自由贸易的贸易和福利影响估计

【学术笔记 第33篇】 英属印度时期铁路：交通基础设施的影响评估（AER）

【学术笔记 第32篇】 技术、地理和贸易(经典EK模型）

【学术笔记 第31篇】2018年贸易战对美国物价和福利的影响

【学术笔记 第30篇】全球价值链和国家部门层面实际有效汇率