编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（11.04-11.10）共发布 23 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送前 8 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
在变化和不确定的世界中，经常账户动态与储蓄-投资关系
Menzie D. Chinn and Hiro Ito #33106
Abstract: We re‐examine the determinants of current account balances (CAB) and the saving-investment nexus with focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We are in a new age in terms of facing not just economic challenges but also other non-economic challenges such as global climate changes, increasing natural disasters, and wars. We face the need to reexamine the determinants of CAB along with national saving and investment. We first take an event study approach, examining how these variables have evolved historically in the wake of wars, natural disasters, and pandemics. The second is a cross‐country panel investigation of CAB, national saving, and of investment. In the presence of global financial instability, EMDEs tend to experience an improvement in CAB due to a fall in investment. A rise in oil prices increases both national saving and investment, but the change in investment is greater than the change in national saving, which worsens CAB. Contractionary monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board tends to lower both national saving and investment, but the impact on CAB is not statistically different from zero. The more frequently a country experiences wars, on average, its CAB tends to improve. When a climatological or geographical disaster occurs, its CAB, national saving, and investment tend to improve. A rise in the level of U.S. monetary policy uncertainty leads to an improvement in CAB, mainly due to a fall in investment.
摘要：我们重新审视了经常账户余额（CAB）的决定因素以及储蓄-投资关系，重点关注新兴市场和发展中经济体（EMDEs）。我们正处于一个新的时代，不仅面临经济挑战，还面临诸如全球气候变化、自然灾害增多和战争等非经济挑战。这使得我们有必要重新审视CAB的决定因素以及国家储蓄和投资。首先，我们采取事件研究的方法，考察这些变量在战争、自然灾害和流行病等事件后是如何演变的。其次，我们进行跨国面板分析，研究CAB、国家储蓄和投资。在全球金融不稳定的情况下，EMDEs的CAB通常会因投资下降而改善。油价上涨会同时增加国家储蓄和投资，但投资的变化幅度大于储蓄，从而导致CAB恶化。美国联邦储备委员会的紧缩性货币政策通常会降低国家储蓄和投资，但对CAB的影响在统计上不显著。一个国家经历战争的频率越高，其CAB往往会有所改善。当气候或地理灾害发生时，该国的CAB、国家储蓄和投资倾向于改善。美国货币政策不确定性上升会导致CAB改善，主要是由于投资减少。
关税是否使美国制造业强大？来自镀金时代的新证据
Alexander Klein and Christopher M. Meissner #33100
Abstract: We study the relationship between tariffs and labor productivity in US manufacturing between 1870 and 1909. Using highly dis-aggregated tariff data, state-industry data for the manufacturing sector, and an instrumental variable strategy, results show that tariffs reduced labor productivity. Tariffs also generally reduced the average size of establishments within an industry but raised output prices, value-added, gross output, employment, and the number of establishments. We also find evidence of heterogeneity in the association between tariffs and value added, gross output, employment, and establishments across groups of industries. We conclude that tariffs may have reduced labor productivity in manufacturing by weakening import competition and by inducing entry of smaller, less productive domestic firms. Our research also reveals that lobbying by powerful and productive industries may have been at play. The era’s high tariffs are unlikely to have helped the US become a globally competitive manufacturer.
摘要：我们研究了1870年至1909年间关税与美国制造业劳动生产率之间的关系。利用高度细分的关税数据、制造业部门的州级行业数据和工具变量策略，研究结果显示关税降低了劳动生产率。关税还通常减少了行业内企业的平均规模，但提高了产出价格、增加值、总产出、就业和企业数量。我们还发现，不同行业之间在关税与增加值、总产出、就业和企业数量之间的关系上存在异质性。我们得出结论，关税可能通过削弱进口竞争并引入规模较小、生产率较低的本土企业，从而降低了制造业的劳动生产率。我们的研究还揭示，强大且高生产率的行业可能在游说方面发挥了作用。该时期的高关税不太可能帮助美国成为全球有竞争力的制造业国家。
中国冲击再审视：美国劳动力市场中的就业再配置与行业转移
Nicholas Bloom, Kyle Handley, André Kurmann, and Philip A. Luck #33098
Abstract: Using confidential administrative data from the U.S. Census Bureau we revisit how the rise in Chinese import penetration has reshaped U.S. local labor markets. Local labor markets more exposed to the China shock experienced larger reallocation from manufacturing to services jobs. Most of this reallocation occurred within firms that simultaneously contracted manufacturing operations while expanding employment in services. Notably, about 40% of the manufacturing job loss effect is due to continuing establishments switching their primary activity from manufacturing to trade-related services such as research, management, and wholesale. The effects of Chinese import penetration vary by local labor market characteristics. In areas with high human capital, including much of the West Coast and large cities, job reallocation from manufacturing to services has been substantial. In areas with low human capital and a high initial manufacturing share, including much of the Midwest and the South, we find limited job reallocation. We estimate this differential response to the China shock accounts for half of the 1997-2007 job growth gap between these regions.
摘要：我们利用美国人口普查局的机密行政数据，重新审视了中国进口渗透的上升如何重塑了美国的地方劳动力市场。受中国冲击影响较大的地方劳动力市场经历了从制造业向服务业的更大规模的就业再配置。这种再配置主要发生在企业内部，即这些企业一方面缩减制造业业务，同时扩大服务业就业。值得注意的是，大约40%的制造业就业损失是由于持续经营的企业将其主要业务从制造业转向了贸易相关的服务业，如研究、管理和批发。中国进口渗透的影响因地方劳动力市场的特征而异。在包括西海岸和大城市在内的高人力资本地区，制造业向服务业的就业再配置相当显著。而在人力资本较低且初始制造业占比较高的地区（如中西部和南部的大部分地区），就业重新配置有限。我们估计，这种对中国冲击的差异性反应占了1997年至2007年间这些地区之间就业增长差距的一半。
拉丁美洲青少年的心理健康
David G. Blanchflower and Alex Bryson #33111
Abstract: We examine the mental wellbeing of the young in 18 Latin American countries using data from five cross-country comparative studies plus cross-sectional and quarterly time series data for a single country, Mexico. We examine whether there has been a decline in youth mental health and, if so, whether it has removed the U-shape in happiness and the hump-shape in unhappiness in Latin America as it has done in the United States and elsewhere. In the Global Minds data, the mental health of the young is poorer than that of older age groups. The Enbiare surveys for Mexico indicate that declining wellbeing of the young has changed the age profile of (un)happiness in that country. The OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) data show a decline in the mental health of school children in Latin America, and that mental ill-health is more pronounced among those who have early access to, or spend excessive time spent on, digital devices. However, in both the Gallup World Poll and the Latinobarometers the young remain happier than older age groups, even though the wellbeing of the young has declined in some Latin American countries. We speculate as to why there may be differences in trends across surveys.
摘要：我们利用五项跨国比较研究的数据，以及针对单一国家（墨西哥）的横截面和季度时间序列数据，考察了拉丁美洲18个国家中青少年的心理健康状况。我们探讨了青少年的心理健康是否出现了下降，以及这种下降是否在拉丁美洲消除了幸福感的U形曲线和不幸福感的峰值形态，就像在美国和其他地区所发生的一样。在“全球心灵”数据中，青少年的心理健康状况较年长群体更差。墨西哥的Enbiare调查显示，青少年幸福感的下降改变了该国的年龄（不）幸福感分布。经济合作与发展组织（OECD）国际学生评估项目（PISA）的数据表明，拉丁美洲学生的心理健康有所下降，且心理健康问题在那些早期接触或花费过多时间在数字设备上的人群中更为明显。然而，在盖洛普世界民意调查和拉美晴雨表中，尽管部分拉丁美洲国家的青少年幸福感有所下降，但青少年仍比年长群体更快乐。我们对不同调查之间趋势的差异进行了推测分析。
短时工作延期
Christina Brinkmann, Simon Jäger, Moritz Kuhn, Farzad Saidi, and Stefanie Wolter #33112
Abstract: Governments use short-time work (STW) schemes to subsidize job preservation during crises. We study the take-up of STW and its effects on worker outcomes and firm behavior using German administrative data from 2009 to 2021. Establishments utilizing STW tend to have higher wages, be larger, and have falling employment even before STW take-up. More adverse selection occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Within firms, STW is targeted towards workers likely to stay even in the absence of STW. To study the effects of STW, we examine two dimensions of policy variation: STW eligibility and extensions of potential benefit duration (PBD). Workers above retirement age, ineligible for STW, have identical employment trajectories compared to their slightly younger, eligible peers when their establishment takes up STW. A 2012 reform doubling PBD from 6 to 12 months did not secure employment at treated firms 12 months after take-up, with minimal heterogeneity across worker characteristics. However, treated and control firms experienced substantial and persistent differences in their wage trajectories, with control firms without extensions lowering wages compared to treated firms. Across cells, larger wage effects corresponded with smaller employment effects, consistent with downward wage flexibility preventing layoffs and substituting for the employment protection effects of STW. Our research designs reveal that STW extensions in Germany did not significantly improve short- or long-term employment outcomes.
摘要：各国政府在危机期间使用短时工作（STW）计划来补贴就业保护。我们利用2009年至2021年的德国行政数据，研究了STW的采纳情况及其对员工结果和公司行为的影响。采用STW的企业通常工资较高、规模较大，并且在采用STW之前就已有就业下降的趋势。在新冠疫情期间，不利选择现象更加明显。在企业内部，STW主要针对即使没有STW也可能会继续留任的员工。为了研究STW的影响，我们考察了政策的两个变化维度：STW资格和潜在福利期限（PBD）的延长。在企业采用STW的情况下，超过退休年龄且不符合STW资格的员工，与稍微年轻一些且符合资格的同事相比，其就业轨迹相同。2012年一项改革将PBD从6个月延长至12个月，但12个月后，这项措施并未在采用该计划的企业中保障就业，且不同员工特征之间的差异较小。然而，处理组和对照组企业在工资轨迹上存在显著且持续的差异，未享受延长期限的对照组企业的工资有所降低，而处理组企业保持了工资水平。不同组别中，工资影响较大的对应的就业影响较小，表明工资向下调整的灵活性可以防止裁员，并代替了STW的就业保护效果。我们的研究设计揭示，德国的STW延期并未显著改善短期或长期的就业结果。
经济决策的复杂性
Xavier Gabaix and Thomas Graeber #33109
Abstract: We propose a theory of the complexity of economic decisions. Leveraging a macroeconomic framework of production functions, we conceptualize the mind as a cognitive economy, where a task's complexity is determined by its composition of cognitive operations. Complexity emerges as the inverse of the total factor productivity of thinking about a task. It increases in the number of importance-weighted components and decreases in the degree to which the effect of one or few components on the optimal action dominates. Higher complexity generates larger decision errors and behavioral attenuation to variation in problem parameters. The model applies both to continuous and discrete choice. We develop a theory-guided experimental methodology for measuring subjective perceptions of complexity that is simple and portable. A series of experiments test and confirm the central predictions of our model for perceptions of complexity, behavioral attenuation, and decision errors. We provide a template for applying the framework to core economic decision domains, and then develop several applications including the complexity of static consumption choice with one or several interacting goods, consumption over time, the tax system, forecasting, and discrete choice between goods.
摘要：我们提出了一个关于经济决策复杂性的理论。借助生产函数的宏观经济框架，我们将大脑概念化为一个认知经济体，在其中，一个任务的复杂性由其所需的认知操作组成。复杂性表现为思考任务的全要素生产率的倒数。复杂性随重要性权重较大的组成部分数量的增加而增加，随着单一或少数组成部分对最优行动的主导作用的增强而减少。更高的复杂性会产生更大的决策错误，并导致行为对问题参数变化的敏感性降低。该模型适用于连续和离散选择。我们开发了一种理论指导的实验方法来衡量主观上的复杂性感知，该方法简单且便于携带。一系列实验测试并证实了模型关于复杂性感知、行为敏感性降低和决策错误的核心预测。我们为将此框架应用于核心经济决策领域提供了模板，并开发了多个应用实例，包括具有一个或多个相互作用商品的静态消费选择、跨时间的消费、税收制度、预测以及商品之间的离散选择的复杂性。
欧洲央行的气候活动与公众信任
Sandra Eickmeier and Luba Petersen #33103
Abstract: As central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB), adopt climate-related responsibilities, gauging public support becomes essential. Drawing on a June 2023 Bundesbank household survey, we find that 69% of households report increased trust in the ECB due to its climate actions, valuing the institution's broader scope and concern. While 17% and 20% of households express concerns over risks to price stability or independence, 23% believe climate engagement reinforces the ECB's core objectives. An information intervention indicates minimal impact on household inflation expectations, suggesting a disconnect between institutional trust and inflation outlooks. An internal survey reveals that central bankers accurately gauge trust impacts but tend to overestimate effects on inflation expectations. Overall, our findings indicate broad public support for the ECB’s climate initiatives.
摘要：随着包括欧洲央行（ECB）在内的中央银行承担起与气候相关的责任，衡量公众支持变得至关重要。根据2023年6月德国央行的一项家庭调查，69%的家庭因欧洲央行的气候行动而对其信任增加，认可该机构更广泛的职能范围和关注领域。与此同时，17%和20%的家庭对价格稳定或独立性可能受到影响表示担忧，23%认为气候参与加强了欧洲央行的核心目标。一项信息干预试验表明，这对家庭的通胀预期影响甚微，表明机构信任与通胀预期之间存在脱节。一项内部调查显示，央行工作人员对信任影响的判断较准确，但往往高估了对通胀预期的影响。总体而言，我们的研究结果显示，公众对欧洲央行的气候举措有广泛的支持。
行业与身份：19世纪英国经济与文化变迁中的移民关联
Vasiliki Fouka and Theo Serlin #33114
Abstract: How does economic modernization affect group identity? Modernization theory emphasizes how labor migration led to the adoption of common identities. Yet economic development may reduce incentives to emigrate, preserving local cultures. We study England and Wales during the Second Industrial Revolution, a period characterized by the development of new industries and declines in transportation and communication costs. Using microdata on individuals’ names and migration decisions, we quantify identity change and its variation across space. We develop and estimate a quantitative spatial model in which migration and cultural identities are inter-dependent. Different components of economic modernization had different effects on identity change. Falling migration costs homogenized peripheral regions. In contrast, industrial development led to heterogeneity, increasing the overall prevalence of the culture of London, while also creating local identity holdouts by reducing out-migration from industrializing peripheries. Modernization promotes both national identities and persistent local identities in peripheral regions that industrialize.
摘要：经济现代化如何影响群体身份？现代化理论强调，劳动力迁移促使了共同身份的形成。然而，经济发展可能减少移民的动力，从而保留本地文化。我们研究了第二次工业革命期间的英格兰和威尔士，这一时期的特点是新兴产业的发展以及交通和通信成本的下降。利用个人姓名和迁移决策的微观数据，我们量化了身份变化及其在地域上的差异。我们构建并估算了一个量化空间模型，其中迁移和文化身份相互依存。经济现代化的不同组成部分对身份变化产生了不同的影响。迁移成本的下降使边缘地区更加同质化；相反，工业发展导致了异质性，一方面增加了伦敦文化的总体影响，另一方面通过减少工业化边缘地区的外迁，保留了本地身份。现代化既推动了国家身份的形成，也在工业化的边缘地区促进了持久的本地身份。
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