【顶刊速递】Econometrica《计量经济学期刊》 2024年7月期刊目录及摘要

Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics.

《计量经济学期刊》是由计量经济学会（Econometric Society）出版的一本双月刊，所刊文章涉及经济学所有分支中的理论、实证和应用，期刊提倡以理论-定量和经验-定量的统一方法来研究经济问题，每年都会探讨一系列独特的主题——从许多新的重要领域的理论发展前沿，到当前和应用经济问题的研究，再到计量经济学方法上的创新、理论和应用研究。《Econometric》自首次出版以来一直是展示经济学理论、实证分析以及统计方法在经济学中应用的重要平台，与AER、QJE、JPE、RES合称经济学“五大刊”，是计量经济学和经济学理论研究的标杆。点击文末“阅读原文”可跳转Econometrica期刊官网。

注：中文摘要为机翻内容，未完全校对。

文章目录

中英摘要

Abstract: Most empirical work in economics has considered only a narrow set of measures as meaningful and useful to characterize individual behavior, a restriction justified by the difficulties in collecting a wider set. However, this approach often forces the use of strong assumptions to estimate the parameters that inform individual behavior and identify causal links. In this paper, we argue that a more flexible and broader approach to measurement could be extremely useful and allow the estimation of richer and more realistic models that rest on weaker identifying assumptions. We argue that the design of measurement tools should interact with, and depend on, the models economists use. Measurement is not a substitute for rigorous theory, it is an important complement to it, and should be developed in parallel to it. We illustrate these arguments with a model of parental behavior estimated on pilot data that combines conventional measures with novel ones.

经济学中的大多数实证研究都认为，只有一小部分措施对描述个人行为特征有意义且有用，这种限制的理由是很难收集到更广泛的措施。然而，这种方法往往迫使人们使用强有力的假设来估算个人行为的参数，并找出因果联系。在本文中，我们认为一种更灵活、更广泛的测量方法可能非常有用，它可以在较弱的识别假设基础上估算出更丰富、更现实的模型。我们认为，测量工具的设计应与经济学家使用的模型相互作用，并取决于这些模型。测量不能替代严谨的理论，它是严谨理论的重要补充，应与严谨理论同步发展。我们用一个根据试点数据估算的父母行为模型来说明这些论点，该模型结合了传统的测量方法和新颖的测量方法。

Abstract: The expectation is an example of a descriptive statistic that is monotone with respect to stochastic dominance, and additive for sums of independent random variables. We provide a complete characterization of such statistics, and explore a number of applications to models of individual and group decision-making. These include a representation of stationary monotone time preferences, extending the work of Fishburn and Rubinstein (1982) to time lotteries. This extension offers a new perspective on risk attitudes toward time, as well as on the aggregation of multiple discount factors. We also offer a novel class of non-expected utility preferences over gambles which satisfy invariance to background risk as well as betweenness, but are versatile enough to capture mixed risk attitudes.

期望值是描述性统计的一个例子，它在随机支配性方面是单调的，对于独立随机变量之和是可加的。我们提供了这种统计量的完整表征，并探讨了它在个人和群体决策模型中的一些应用。其中包括静态单调时间偏好的表示，将 Fishburn 和 Rubinstein（1982 年）的工作扩展到时间抽签。这一扩展为时间风险态度以及多种贴现因子的聚合提供了新的视角。我们还提出了一类新的赌博非预期效用偏好，该偏好满足背景风险和间性的不变性，但其多样性足以捕捉混合风险态度。

Abstract: When does society eventually learn the truth, or take the correct action, via observational learning? In a general model of sequential learning over social networks, we identify a simple condition for learning dubbed excludability. Excludability is a joint property of agents' preferences and their information. We develop two classes of preferences and information that jointly satisfy excludability: (i) for a one-dimensional state, preferences with single-crossing differences and a new informational condition, directionally unbounded beliefs; and (ii) for a multi-dimensional state, intermediate preferences and subexponential location-shift information. These applications exemplify that with multiple states, “unbounded beliefs” is not only unnecessary for learning, but incompatible with familiar informational structures like normal information. Unbounded beliefs demands that a single agent can identify the correct action. Excludability, on the other hand, only requires that a single agent must be able to displace any wrong action, even if she cannot take the correct action.

社会何时才能通过观察学习最终了解真相或采取正确行动？在社会网络顺序学习的一般模型中，我们确定了一个简单的学习条件，称为排他性。排他性是代理人的偏好和信息的共同属性。我们开发了两类共同满足排他性的偏好和信息：(i) 对于一维状态，具有单交叉差异的偏好和一种新的信息条件--方向无限制的信念；(ii) 对于多维状态，中间偏好和亚指数位置偏移信息。这些应用举例说明，在多维状态下，"无约束信念 "不仅对学习没有必要，而且与我们熟悉的信息结构（如正常信息）不相容。无界信念要求单个代理能够确定正确的行动。另一方面，排除性只要求单个代理必须能够取代任何错误的行动，即使她不能采取正确的行动。

Abstract: We use high-frequency data on fine particulate matter air pollution (PM 2.5) at the locality level to study the effects of high pollution on daily labor supply decisions in the metropolitan area of Mexico City. We document a negative, non-linear relationship between PM 2.5 and same-day labor supply, with strong effects on days with extremely high pollution levels. On these days, the average worker experiences a reduction of around 7.5% of working hours. Workers partially compensate for lost hours by increasing their labor supply on days that follow high-pollution days. We find that low-income workers reduce their labor supply significantly less than high-income workers. Unequal responses to high pollution along other dimensions (job quality, flexibility, gender) matter, but less than income. We provide suggestive evidence that reductions in labor supply due to high pollution are consistent with avoidance behavior.

我们利用地方一级细颗粒物空气污染（PM 2.5）的高频数据，研究了高污染对墨西哥城大都市区每日劳动力供应决策的影响。我们记录了 PM 2.5 与当日劳动力供应之间的非线性负相关关系，在污染水平极高的日子里，这种关系会产生强烈影响。在这些日子里，工人的平均工作时间减少了约 7.5%。在高污染日之后的日子里，工人通过增加劳动供给来部分补偿损失的工时。我们发现，低收入工人减少劳动供给的程度明显低于高收入工人。其他方面（工作质量、灵活性、性别）对高污染的不平等反应也很重要，但不如收入重要。我们提供的提示性证据表明，高污染导致的劳动力供给减少与回避行为是一致的。

Abstract: This paper introduces and analyzes sequentially stable outcomes in extensive-form games. An outcome ω is sequentially stable if, for any ε > 0 and any small enough perturbation of the players' behavior, there is an ε-perturbation of the players' payoffs and a corresponding equilibrium with outcome close to ω. Sequentially stable outcomes exist for all finite games and are outcomes of sequential equilibria. They are closely related to stable sets of equilibria and satisfy versions of forward induction, iterated strict equilibrium dominance, and invariance to simultaneous moves. In signaling games, sequentially stable outcomes pass the standard selection criteria, and when payoffs are generic, they coincide with outcomes of stable sets of equilibria.

本文介绍并分析了广式博弈中的连续稳定结果。如果对于任意 ε > 0 和任意足够小的博弈者行为扰动，存在博弈者报酬的 ε-perturbation 和结果接近 ω 的相应均衡，那么结果 ω 就是顺序稳定的。顺序稳定结果存在于所有有限博弈中，是顺序均衡的结果。它们与稳定的均衡集密切相关，并满足前向归纳法、迭代严格均衡支配法和同时移动不变性的版本。在信号博弈中，连续稳定结果通过了标准选择标准，而且当报酬是一般报酬时，它们与稳定均衡集的结果相吻合。

Abstract: We examine identification of differentiated products demand when one has “micro data” linking the characteristics and choices of individual consumers. Our model nests standard specifications featuring rich observed and unobserved consumer heterogeneity as well as product/market-level unobservables that introduce the problem of econometric endogeneity. Previous work establishes identification of such models using market-level data and instruments for all prices and quantities. Micro data provides a panel structure that facilitates richer demand specifications and reduces requirements on both the number and types of instrumental variables. We address identification of demand in the standard case in which nonprice product characteristics are assumed exogenous, but also cover identification of demand elasticities and other key features when these product characteristics are endogenous and not instrumented. We discuss implications of these results for applied work.

我们研究了在拥有将个体消费者的特征和选择联系起来的 "微观数据 "时对差异化产品需求的识别。我们的模型嵌套了标准规格，具有丰富的观察到的和观察不到的消费者异质性，以及产品/市场层面的不可观察因素，从而引入了计量经济学的内生性问题。以往的研究利用市场层面的数据以及所有价格和数量的工具来确定此类模型。微观数据提供了一种面板结构，有利于更丰富的需求规格，并减少了对工具变量数量和类型的要求。我们讨论了在假定非价格产品特征为外生的标准情况下的需求识别问题，同时也涵盖了在这些产品特征为内生且未使用工具的情况下的需求弹性和其他关键特征的识别问题。我们讨论了这些结果对应用工作的影响。

Abstract: This paper investigates how tax rates and tax enforcement jointly impact fiscal capacity in low-income countries. We study a policy experiment in the D.R. Congo that randomly assigned 38,028 property owners to the status quo tax rate or to a rate reduction. This variation in tax liabilities reveals that the status quo rate lies above the revenue-maximizing tax rate (RMTR). Reducing rates by about one-third would maximize government revenue by increasing tax compliance. We then exploit two sources of variation in enforcement—randomized enforcement letters and random assignment of tax collectors—to show that the RMTR increases with enforcement. Including an enforcement message on tax letters or replacing tax collectors in the bottom quartile of enforcement capacity with average collectors would raise the RMTR by about 40%. Tax rates and enforcement are thus complementary levers. Jointly optimizing tax rates and enforcement would lead to 10% higher revenue gains than optimizing them independently. These findings provide experimental evidence that low government enforcement capacity sets a binding ceiling on the revenue-maximizing tax rate in some developing countries, thereby demonstrating the value of increasing tax rates in tandem with enforcement to expand fiscal capacity.

本文研究了税率和税收执行如何共同影响低收入国家的财政能力。我们研究了刚果（金）的一项政策实验，该实验将 38,028 名财产所有人随机分配给维持现状税率或降低税率。税负的这种变化表明，现状税率高于收入最大化税率（RMTR）。降低约三分之一的税率将通过提高纳税遵从度使政府收入最大化。然后，我们利用执法过程中的两个变化来源--随机执法函和随机分配征税人员--来证明 RMTR 会随着执法的加强而增加。在税收信函中加入执法信息，或用普通征税员取代执法能力最低的四分位数征税员，都会将 RMTR 提高约 40%。因此，税率和执法是相辅相成的杠杆。联合优化税率和执法会比单独优化高出 10%的税收收益。这些研究结果提供了实验证据，证明在一些发展中国家，政府执法能力低对收入最大化税率设置了一个具有约束力的上限，从而证明了在提高税率的同时加强执法以扩大财政能力的价值。

Abstract: This paper theoretically and empirically studies the interaction of search and application approval in credit markets. Risky borrowers internalize the probability that their application is rejected and behave as if they had high search costs. Thus, “overpayment” may be a poor proxy for consumer sophistication since it partly represents rational search in response to rejections. Contrary to standard search models, our model implies (1) endogenous adverse selection through the search and application approval process, (2) a possibly non-monotone or non-decreasing relationship between search and realized interest, default, and application approval rates, and (3) search costs estimated from transaction prices alone are biased. We find support for the model's predictions using a unique data set detailing search behavior of mortgage borrowers. Estimating the model, we find that screening is informative and search is costly. Counterfactual analyses reveal that tightening lending standards and discrimination through application rejection both increase equilibrium interest rates. This increase in realized interest rates is in part due to strategic complementarity in bank rate setting.

本文从理论和实证角度研究了信贷市场中搜索与申请审批之间的相互作用。高风险借款人会将其申请被拒的概率内部化，其行为就好像他们的搜索成本很高。因此，"超额支付 "可能是消费者成熟度的不良代表，因为它在一定程度上代表了应对拒绝的理性搜索。与标准搜索模型相反，我们的模型意味着：（1）通过搜索和申请批准过程的内生逆向选择；（2）搜索与实现利率、违约率和申请批准率之间可能存在非单调或非递减关系；（3）仅从交易价格估算的搜索成本是有偏差的。我们利用独特的数据集详细分析了抵押贷款借款人的搜索行为，发现该模型的预测是正确的。通过对模型进行估计，我们发现筛选信息量大，搜索成本高。反事实分析表明，收紧贷款标准和通过拒绝申请进行歧视都会提高均衡利率。实现利率的提高部分是由于银行利率设定的战略互补性。

Abstract: Developing country megacities suffer from severe road traffic congestion, yet the level of congestion is not a direct measure of equilibrium inefficiency. I study the peak-hour traffic congestion equilibrium in Bangalore. To measure travel preferences, I use a model of departure time choice to design a field experiment with congestion pricing policies and implement it using precise GPS data. Commuter responses in the experiment reveal moderate schedule inflexibility and a high value of time. I then show that in Bangalore, traffic density has a moderate and linear impact on travel delay. My policy simulations with endogenous congestion indicate that optimal congestion charges would lead to a small reduction in travel times, and small commuter welfare gains. This result is driven primarily by the shape of the congestion externality. Overall, these results suggest limited commuter welfare benefits from peak-spreading traffic policies in cities like Bangalore.

发展中国家的特大城市存在严重的道路交通拥堵问题，但拥堵程度并不能直接衡量均衡效率的低下程度。我研究了班加罗尔高峰时段的交通拥堵均衡。为了衡量出行偏好，我利用出发时间选择模型设计了一个拥堵定价政策实地实验，并利用精确的 GPS 数据加以实施。通勤者在实验中的反应显示了中等程度的时间安排不灵活和对时间的高度重视。然后，我证明了在班加罗尔，交通密度对出行延迟有适度的线性影响。我对内生性拥堵进行的政策模拟表明，最佳拥堵收费将导致出行时间的小幅缩短，通勤者的福利收益也会很小。造成这一结果的主要原因是拥堵外部性的形状。总体而言，这些结果表明，在班加罗尔等城市，高峰时段交通政策带来的通勤者福利收益有限。

Abstract: Annually, work-related mortality is responsible for 5–7% of all global deaths, and at least 1-in-9 workers experience nonfatal occupational accidents (ILO (2019a,b)). Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) committees are considered the key worker voice institution through which to improve workplace safety and health (ILO (1981)). I present evidence of OSH committees' causal effects on workers and on factories. To do so, I collaborated with 29 multinational apparel buyers that committed to enforce a local mandate for OSH committees on their suppliers in Bangladesh. With the buyers, I implemented a nearly year-long field experiment with 84 supplier factories, randomly enforcing the mandate on half. The buyers' intervention increased compliance with the OSH committee law. Exploiting the experimental variation in OSH committees' strength, I find that stronger OSH committees had small, positive effects on objective measures of safety. These improvements did not come at a cost to workers in terms of wages or employment or to factories in terms of labor productivity. The effects on compliance, safety, and voice were largest for factories with better managerial practices. Factories with worse practices did not improve, and workers in these factories reported lower job satisfaction; this finding suggests complementarity between external enforcement and internal capacity in determining the efficacy of regulation.

每年，与工作相关的死亡人数占全球死亡总人数的5%-7%，至少九分之一的工人经历过非致命性职业事故（ILO（2019a,b））。职业安全与健康（OSH）委员会被认为是工人表达意见的主要机构，通过它可以改善工作场所的安全与健康（ILO（1981））。我提出了职业安全与健康委员会对工人和工厂的因果影响的证据。为此，我与 29 家跨国服装采购商合作，这些采购商承诺在孟加拉国对其供应商实施职业安全和健康委员会的地方授权。我与这些买家一起，对 84 家供应商工厂进行了为期近一年的实地实验，随机对其中一半的工厂强制执行该规定。买方的干预提高了职业安全和健康委员会法律的合规性。利用职业安全和健康委员会实力的实验差异，我发现更强大的职业安全和健康委员会对安全的客观衡量标准产生了微小的积极影响。这些改善并没有让工人在工资或就业方面付出代价，也没有让工厂在劳动生产率方面付出代价。对合规性、安全性和发言权影响最大的是管理较好的工厂。管理方法较差的工厂没有得到改善，这些工厂的工人对工作的满意度较低；这一结果表明，外部执行和内部能力在决定监管效果方面具有互补性。

Abstract: The government budget constraint ties the market value of government debt to the expected present discounted value of fiscal surpluses. We find evidence that U.S. Treasury investors fail to impose this no-arbitrage restriction in the United States. Both cyclical and long-run dynamics of tax revenues and government spending make the surplus claim risky. In a realistic asset pricing model, this risk in surpluses creates a large gap between the market value of debt and its fundamental value, the PDV of surpluses, suggesting that U.S. Treasuries may be overpriced.

政府预算约束将政府债务的市场价值与财政盈余的预期现值贴现值联系在一起。我们发现有证据表明，美国国债投资者未能在美国实施这一无套利限制。税收收入和政府支出的周期性和长期性动态都使得盈余要求具有风险。在现实的资产定价模型中，盈余的这种风险会使债务的市场价值与其基本价值（即盈余的 PDV）之间产生巨大差距，这表明美国国债的定价可能过高。

声明：推文仅代表文章原作者观点，以及推文作者的评论观点，并不代表本公众号平台的观点。

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