自由贸易对可再生资源有利吗：Brander & Taylor 再探

M. Scott Taylor #33113

Abstract: This paper generalizes the original Brander and Taylor model of open-access renewable resource use and trade to address three common critiques. First, I introduce heterogeneity across agents in harvesting productivity to smooth out the model's extreme specialization patterns while maintaining its Ricardian structure and tractability. Second, I move beyond the original assumption of open access by constructing a policy stringency function allowing for partial, first-best, and endogenous resource policy. Third, by exploiting the smooth substitution possibilities generated by agent heterogeneity and the insight that policy stringency functions are likely to vary across countries, I show how the model's core predictions can be evaluated using empirical methods related to those in growth econometrics.

摘要：本文对Brander和Taylor关于开放获取可再生资源利用和贸易的原始模型进行了推广，以回应三种常见的批评。首先，我在模型中引入了收获生产率方面的代理异质性，以平滑模型中的极端专业化模式，同时保持其李嘉图结构和可处理性。其次，我超越了原始的开放获取假设，构建了一个政策严格度函数，允许部分、最优和内生的资源政策。第三，通过利用代理异质性所产生的平滑替代可能性，以及政策严格度函数在不同国家之间可能有所差异的洞见，我展示了如何使用与增长计量经济学相关的实证方法来评估模型的核心预测。

有时两个错误可以造就一个正确：石油市场势力的环境效益

John Asker, Allan Collard-Wexler, Charlotte De Canniere, Jan De Loecker, and Christopher R. Knittel #33115

Abstract: Market power reduces equilibrium quantities and distorts production, typically causing welfare losses. However, as Buchanan (1969) noted, market power may mitigate overproduction from negative externalities. This paper examines this in the global oil market, where OPEC’s market power affects oil production and carbon intensity. We estimate that from 1970 to 2021, OPEC’s market power reduced emissions by over 67 GtCO2, equating to $4,073 billion in climate damages and 17.8% of the carbon budget needed for the 1.5◦ C Paris Agreement target. This environmental benefit outweighs the welfare loss from distorted production allocation.

摘要：市场势力会减少均衡产量并扭曲生产，通常会导致福利损失。然而，正如Buchanan（1969）指出的，市场势力可能缓解由负外部性引起的过度生产。本文研究了这一现象在全球石油市场中的表现，其中OPEC的市场势力影响了石油生产和碳排放强度。我们估计，从1970年到2021年，OPEC的市场势力减少了超过67亿吨的二氧化碳排放，相当于4,0730亿美元的气候损失，并占实现《巴黎协定》1.5°C目标所需碳预算的17.8%。这种环境效益超过了因生产分配扭曲带来的福利损失。

产业政策的信息发现

Michael Sockin and Wei Xiong #33107

Abstract: Amid growing interest in industrial policy, we develop a model exploring the tension between market-driven information discovery and policymakers' career incentives. While market-based information discovery can help address informational barriers faced by policymakers, career incentives may lead them to aggressively pursue their agendas to signal political capability, shifting dynamics toward a government-centric equilibrium. In this equilibrium, market participants focus on policy-related information over industry fundamentals, weakening the market’s role in information discovery and reducing policy efficiency. Our analysis highlights the importance of bureaucratic frictions and market-based information discovery in jointly shaping the effectiveness of industrial policy implementation.

摘要：在对产业政策日益关注的背景下，我们构建了一个模型来探讨市场驱动的信息发现与政策制定者职业激励之间的张力。市场导向的信息发现可以帮助解决政策制定者面临的信息壁垒，但职业激励可能促使他们积极推进自身议程，以展示政治能力，从而将动态推向一个政府主导的均衡。在这一均衡中，市场参与者更关注与政策相关的信息，而非行业基本面，削弱了市场在信息发现中的作用，并降低了政策效率。我们的分析强调了官僚摩擦和市场导向信息发现对于共同塑造产业政策执行效果的重要性。

GDPR与安卓移动应用中的SDK使用

Ginger Zhe Jin, Ziqiao Liu, and Liad Wagman #33099

Abstract: Using data on Software Development Kits (SDKs), we study SDKs in Android apps vis-à-vis the adoption of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) by the European Union in May 2018. Relative to US-only apps, the number of non-Google SDKs used per app in 5 major European countries (EU5) exhibits a 1.3% decline in EU5-only apps after GDPR, and a 6.3% decline in apps multihoming US and EU5. These effects are mostly driven by lower-ranked apps. Using apps’ monthly active users as weights in computing average user exposure to SDKs in app category and country groups, we find no significant change in the average SDK exposure in EU5-only relative to US-only apps. The only significant change in multihoming apps is a 4.2% drop in exposure to SDKs developed by minor SDK providers, although SDKs from Google and major SDK providers were independently assessed as riskier than those from minor SDK providers.

摘要：利用软件开发工具包（SDK）数据，我们研究了自2018年5月欧盟实施《通用数据保护条例》（GDPR）以来安卓应用中的SDK使用情况。相较于仅在美国发布的应用，GDPR实施后，5个主要欧洲国家（EU5）中仅在EU5发布的应用每款应用使用的非谷歌SDK数量下降了1.3%，而同时在美国和EU5发布的应用中则下降了6.3%。这些影响主要出现在排名较低的应用中。以应用的月活跃用户数为权重计算应用类别和国家组别中用户平均接触SDK的情况，我们发现EU5应用相对于美国应用在平均SDK接触方面没有显著变化。在同时发布于美国和EU5的应用中，唯一显著的变化是用户接触小型SDK提供商开发的SDK减少了4.2%，尽管独立评估显示谷歌和主要SDK提供商的SDK比小型提供商的SDK风险更高。

驾驭维度诅咒：深度学习在定量经济学中的应用

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Galo Nuño, and Jesse Perla #33117

Abstract: We argue that deep learning provides a promising avenue for taming the curse of dimensionality in quantitative economics. We begin by exploring the unique challenges posed by solving dynamic equilibrium models, especially the feedback loop between individual agents' decisions and the aggregate consistency conditions required by equilibrium. Following this, we introduce deep neural networks and demonstrate their application by solving the stochastic neoclassical growth model. Next, we compare deep neural networks with traditional solution methods in quantitative economics. We conclude with a survey of neural network applications in quantitative economics and offer reasons for cautious optimism.

摘要：我们认为，深度学习为解决定量经济学中的维度诅咒提供了有前景的途径。首先，我们探讨了解决动态均衡模型所带来的独特挑战，特别是个体决策与均衡所需的总量一致性条件之间的反馈循环。接着，我们引入深度神经网络，并通过求解随机新古典增长模型来展示其应用。随后，我们将深度神经网络与定量经济学中的传统解法进行比较。最后，我们综述了神经网络在定量经济学中的应用，并提出了谨慎乐观的理由。

高风险决策中的不合理差异：种族衡量与政策应对

E. Jason Baron, Joseph J. Doyle Jr., Natalia Emanuel, Peter Hull, and Joseph P. Ryan #33104

Abstract: Studies of racial discrimination often condition on endogenous measures of race or on earlier decisions that might themselves be affected by discrimination. We develop quasi-experimental tools for estimating the impact of racial misclassification on measures of unwarranted disparity, and for designing policy responses to unwarranted disparity that account for discrimination in earlier decisions. We apply these tools to the setting of child protective services (CPS), where previous work in our context has found that Black children are placed into foster care at higher rates than white children with identical potential for future maltreatment. CPS investigators misclassify 8–9% of Black and white children relative to their self-reported race, and this misclassification obscures around 24% of unwarranted disparity in foster care placement decisions. Policies that use algorithmic recommendations to eliminate total unwarranted disparity in placement rates are also meaningfully affected by earlier discrimination in CPS call screening.

摘要：对种族歧视的研究往往依赖于种族的内生性衡量或早期决策，而这些决策本身可能受到歧视的影响。我们开发了准实验工具，以估计种族错误分类对不合理差异衡量的影响，并设计政策应对措施，考虑到早期决策中的歧视。我们将这些工具应用于儿童保护服务（CPS）的情境中，之前的研究发现，在我们的研究背景下，黑人儿童进入寄养系统的比率高于具有相同未来虐待风险的白人儿童。CPS调查员对黑人和白人儿童的种族错误分类率约为8-9%，这种错误分类掩盖了大约24%的寄养安置决策中的不合理差异。采用算法推荐来消除寄养安置率中所有不合理差异的政策，也会受到CPS电话筛查中早期歧视的显著影响。

机器人与养老院劳动力

Yong Suk Lee, Toshiaki Iizuka, and Karen Eggleston #33116

Abstract: How do employment, tasks, and productivity change with robot adoption? Unlike manufacturing, little is known about these issues in the service sector, where robot adoption is expanding. As a first step towards filling this gap, we study Japanese nursing homes using original facility-level panel data that includes the different robots used and the tasks performed. We find that robot adoption is accompanied by an increase in employment and retention and the relationship is strongest for non-regular care workers and monitoring robots. The share of specific tasks performed by robots increases with the adoption of the respective type of robot, leading to reallocation of care worker effort to “human touch” tasks that support quality care. Robots are associated with improved quality (reduction in restraint use and pressure ulcers) and productivity.

摘要：机器人应用如何改变就业、任务和生产率？在服务业中，机器人应用的扩展尚缺乏研究，与制造业不同。为填补这一空白，我们以日本养老院为研究对象，使用包含不同机器人的使用情况和所执行任务的原始设施级面板数据。研究发现，机器人应用伴随着就业和员工留任的增加，这种关系在非正式护理人员和监测机器人的应用中最为显著。随着特定类型机器人的采用，机器人执行的特定任务的比例增加，从而将护理人员的精力重新分配到支持优质护理的“人性化”任务上。机器人与质量提升（减少约束使用和褥疮发生）和生产力提升相关联。

人人都退缩？在对移民恐惧高涨时，众筹支持对少数族裔创作者的普遍撤回

John (Jianqiu) Bai, William R. Kerr, Chi Wan, and Alptug Y. Yorulmaz #33097

Abstract: We study funding gaps on Kickstarter across multiple ethnic groups from 2009-2021. Scaling the concept of racially salient events, we quantify the close co-movement of minority funding gaps in crowd-funding to inflamed political rhetoric surrounding migration. The funding gap for minorities more than doubles in the most inflamed periods compared to baseline. Results are especially acute for Hispanic creators. Distant, mostly white backers are typically important for projects reaching a critical threshold of funding support. Retractions in support for minority creators during tense periods are even spatially, as present in liberal cities as conservative ones.

摘要：我们研究了2009年至2021年间在Kickstarter上不同族裔群体之间的融资差距。通过扩大具有种族显著性的事件概念，我们量化了少数族裔在众筹平台上的融资差距与围绕移民问题的激烈政治言论之间的密切共动关系。在政治言论最激烈的时期，少数族裔的融资差距比基准期增加了两倍以上。结果在西班牙裔创作者中尤为显著。对于达到关键融资支持门槛的项目，来自遥远地区且大多为白人的支持者通常非常重要。在紧张时期，少数族裔创作者的支持撤回在地理上具有均衡性，无论是在自由派城市还是保守派城市，现象同样存在。

赤字与通胀： HANK与FTPL的结合

George-Marios Angeletos, Chen Lian, and Christian K. Wolf #33102

Abstract: In HANK models, fiscal deficits drive aggregate demand and thus inflation because households are non-Ricardian; in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), they instead do so via equilibrium selection. Because of this difference, the mapping from deficits to inflation in HANK is robust to active monetary policy and free of the controversies surrounding the FTPL. Despite this difference, a benchmark HANK model with sufficiently slow fiscal adjustment predicts just as much inflation as the FTPL. This is true even in the simplest FTPL scenario, in which deficits are financed entirely by inflation and debt erosion. In practice, however, unfunded deficits are likely to trigger a persistent boom in real economic activity and thus the tax base, substituting for debt erosion. In our quantitative explorations, this reduces the inflationary effects of unfunded deficits by about half relative to that simple FTPL arithmetic.

摘要：在异质性代理新凯恩斯（HANK）模型中，由于家庭是非李嘉图型，财政赤字通过推动总需求从而引发通胀；而在财政主导价格水平理论（FTPL）中，赤字通过均衡选择来影响通胀。由于这种差异，HANK模型中赤字对通胀的影响对积极的货币政策具有稳健性，且避免了围绕FTPL的争议。尽管存在这一差异，但一个具有足够缓慢财政调整的基准HANK模型预测的通胀与FTPL相当。这一结论即便在最简单的FTPL情境中也成立，即赤字完全通过通胀和债务削减来融资。然而在实际中，无资金支持的赤字可能引发实际经济活动的持久繁荣，从而扩大税基，替代债务削减。在我们的量化分析中，与简单的FTPL计算相比，这一现象将无资金支持赤字的通胀影响减少了约一半。

支付意愿与行政障碍：解析泰国社会保险参保障碍

Benjamin A. Olken, Rema Hanna, Phitawat Poonpolkul, and Nada Wasi #33096

Abstract: Many government social insurance policies have low take-up. To understand whether this is due to administrative barriers, information, or low valuation of the insurance, we study an unusual policy experiment in Thailand that offered a very large lump-sum incentive for informal workers in selected provinces to enroll in a voluntary workers' social insurance program. Using administrative data, we find that the temporary enrollment incentive increased coverage by 67 percentage points—from 6 percent of informal workers to 73 percent -- within just a few months. However, 12 months later, only 13 percent of these new enrollees remained in the scheme, much lower than the retention rate of those who joined absent the incentive. By using new enrollees' choices among insurance tiers to back out a revealed valuation of insurance, we find that those who were induced to enroll by the incentives value insurance less than those who enrolled without. Combined, the results suggest that low social insurance enrollment may be the result of low ex-ante valuations of the insurance, rather than administrative barriers.

摘要：许多政府的社会保险政策参与率较低。为了解这是否由于行政障碍、信息不足或对保险的低评估，我们研究了泰国的一项特殊政策试验：该试验在选定省份为非正式工人提供了一次性的大额激励，以鼓励他们参加自愿的工人社会保险计划。利用行政数据，我们发现这一临时参保激励在短短几个月内将覆盖率提高了67个百分点——从非正式工人的6%提升到73%。然而，12个月后，只有13%的新参保者仍然留在该计划中，远低于无激励情况下参保者的留存率。通过分析新参保者在不同保险等级中的选择来反映其对保险的实际评估，我们发现，因激励而参保的人员对保险的价值评估低于无激励情况下参保的人。综合来看，结果表明，低社会保险参保率可能是由于对保险的事前评估较低，而非行政障碍所致。

碳负担

Lubos Pastor, Robert F. Stambaugh, and Lucian A. Taylor #33110

Abstract: We quantify the U.S. corporate sector's carbon externality by computing the sector's “carbon burden”—the present value of social costs of its future carbon emissions. Our baseline estimate of the carbon burden is 131% of total corporate equity value. Among individual firms, 77% have carbon burdens exceeding their market capitalizations, as do 13% of firms even with indirect emissions omitted. The 30 largest emitters account for all the decarbonization of U.S. corporations predicted by 2050. Predicted emission reductions, and even firms' targets, fall short of the Paris Agreement. Firms' emissions are predictable by past emissions, investment, climate score, and book-to-market.

摘要：我们通过计算美国企业部门的“碳负担”——即其未来碳排放的社会成本现值，量化了该部门的碳外部性。我们的基准估计显示，碳负担相当于总企业股权价值的131%。在个别公司中，77%的公司碳负担超过其市值，即使排除间接排放，仍有13%的公司碳负担超过市值。美国前30大排放企业预计将占到到2050年所有企业的脱碳份额。然而，预计的减排量和企业设定的目标均未达到《巴黎协定》的要求。企业的排放量可通过过去的排放、投资、气候评分和账面市值比来预测。

不平衡贸易：日益扩大的差距源于金融改革还是贸易改革？

George A. Alessandria, Yan Bai, and Soo Kyung Woo #33101

Abstract: We study the reasons for the large, coincident increases in unbalanced international trade and overall trade from 1970 to 2019. We show that these two salient features—a rise in net and gross international trade—are largely a consequence of a reduction in intratemporal trade barriers rather than a substantial reduction in the frictions on intertemporal trade or greater asymmetries in business cycles. Beyond explaining changes in the distribution of gross and net trade, the decline in intratemporal trade frictions is consistent with a fall in the dispersion across countries in other key macro time series, including the real exchange rate, terms of trade, export-import ratio, relative spending, and relative GDP.

摘要：我们研究了1970年至2019年间国际贸易失衡和总体贸易大幅同步增长的原因。研究表明，这两个显著特征——净贸易和总贸易的上升——主要是由于同期贸易壁垒的减少，而非跨期贸易摩擦的大幅降低或商业周期不对称性的加剧。除了解释总贸易和净贸易分布的变化外，同期贸易摩擦的下降还与其他关键宏观时间序列的国家间差距缩小一致，包括实际汇率、贸易条件、出口-进口比率、相对支出和相对GDP。

重新审视科学发明的私人价值

Ashish Arora, Sharon Belenzon, Elia Ferracuti, and Jay Prakash Nagar #33056

Abstract: Estimating the private value of patents is important, yet challenging. By developing a method that uses stock market returns to produce a distribution of patent values (and not just an estimate of the mean of that distribution), Kogan, Papanikolaou, Seru, and Stoffman (2017) (KPSS) opened venues for new research. Researchers have used these estimates to compare average values of different types of patents. In this paper, we argue that KPSS values should not be used in their current form to compare mean values of different groups of patents, and show this to be the case in the context of research on the private returns to scientific patents. We extend the original KPSS method to allow for patents to be drawn from two distinct value distributions. Using this approach, we find that scientific patents have a higher mean value compared to non-scientific patents.

摘要：估计专利的私人价值至关重要，但颇具挑战性。通过开发一种使用股市回报率来生成专利价值分布的方法（不仅仅是该分布的均值估计），Kogan、Papanikolaou、Seru 和 Stoffman（2017）（KPSS）为新研究提供了可能性。研究人员利用这些估计值来比较不同类型专利的平均价值。在本文中，我们认为现有形式的KPSS值不适用于比较不同专利组的平均价值，并在科学专利私人回报研究的背景下证明了这一点。我们扩展了原始KPSS方法，使其能够适应源于两种不同价值分布的专利。通过这一方法，我们发现科学专利的平均价值高于非科学专利。

利用政策和创新改善获得纳洛酮的生命拯救渠道

Evan D. Peet, David Powell, and Rosalie Liccardo Pacula #33105

Abstract: Naloxone is a life-saving medication which helps reverse the effects of an opioid overdose. Improving naloxone access is a central pillar of the federal response to the worsening opioid crisis in the United States. Existing studies have evaluated the effects of state naloxone access laws, including those that permit naloxone to be dispensed by pharmacies directly to consumers. However, this literature has ignored the role of pharmaceutical innovations like Narcan. Narcan, introduced to the marketplace in February 2016, is a naloxone nasal spray that permits laypersons to successfully administer the drug without training. We first test the hypothesis that naloxone access laws alone increased the distribution of naloxone prior to Narcan, followed by testing the hypothesis that the introduction of Narcan further expanded naloxone’s distribution and its life-saving impacts. We analyze cross-state variation in the adoption of naloxone access laws and their timing relative to Narcan’s introduction. We find that states with naloxone access laws permitting pharmacists to dispense to consumers experienced substantially greater naloxone dispensing after Narcan’s introduction, effects that far outpaced the independent effects of the laws themselves. We also find that while these naloxone access laws did not reduce non-synthetic opioid-related mortality rates on their own, once Narcan was introduced, these mortality rates significantly declined. These findings indicate the important interaction of innovation and policy.

摘要：纳洛酮是一种可以挽救生命的药物，能逆转阿片类药物过量的效果。改善纳洛酮的可获得性是美国联邦应对日益严重的阿片危机的核心举措。现有研究评估了各州的纳洛酮获取法律的效果，包括允许药房直接向消费者提供纳洛酮的法律。然而，这些研究忽视了像Narcan这样的制药创新的作用。Narcan是一种纳洛酮鼻喷剂，于2016年2月投放市场，使非专业人员无需培训即可成功施药。我们首先测试了仅依靠纳洛酮获取法律是否在Narcan出现之前就增加了纳洛酮的分发，随后测试了Narcan的引入是否进一步扩大了纳洛酮的分发及其挽救生命的影响。我们分析了各州纳洛酮获取法律的采用差异及其相对于Narcan引入的时间关系。研究发现，在允许药剂师向消费者分发纳洛酮的法律出台后，随着Narcan的引入，这些州的纳洛酮分发量显著增加，远超这些法律独立实施的效果。此外，我们还发现，虽然这些获取法律本身并未降低非合成阿片类药物相关的死亡率，但在Narcan引入后，这些死亡率显著下降。这些发现表明了创新与政策互动的重要性。

赌掉稳定：体育博彩对脆弱家庭的影响

Scott R. Baker, Justin Balthrop, Mark J. Johnson, Jason D. Kotter, and Kevin Pisciotta #33108

Abstract: We estimate the causal effect of online sports betting on households' investment, spending, and debt management decisions using household transaction data and a staggered difference-in-differences framework. Following legalization, sports betting spreads quickly, with both the number of participants and frequency of bets increasing over time. This increase does not displace other gambling or consumption but significantly reduces savings, as risky bets crowd out positive expected value investments. These effects concentrate among financially constrained households, as credit card debt increases, available credit decreases, and overdraft frequency rises. Our findings highlight the potential adverse effects of online sports betting on vulnerable households.

摘要：我们利用家庭交易数据和交叠DiD框架，估计了在线体育博彩对家庭投资、支出和债务管理决策的因果影响。在合法化之后，体育博彩迅速普及，参与者数量和下注频率随时间增加。这一增长并未替代其他赌博或消费，但显著减少了储蓄，因为高风险投注挤占了正期望值的投资。这些影响集中在财务受限的家庭中，表现为信用卡债务增加、可用信用减少以及透支频率上升。我们的研究结果突显了在线体育博彩对脆弱家庭的潜在负面影响。

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