编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（10.28-11.03）共发布 26 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送中间 8 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
非常规货币和财政政策是否助推了新冠疫情期间的通胀激增？
Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, and Ji Zhang #33044
Abstract: We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies—event studies, vector autoregressions, and regional panel regressions using granular data—and establish a null result. The key economic mechanism works through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation through the usual demand channel. We illustrate this negative supply-side channel both theoretically and empirically.
摘要：我们通过多种实证方法——事件研究、向量自回归以及使用细化数据的区域面板回归——评估为应对新冠疫情而实施的非常规货币和财政政策是否导致了2021-2023年的通胀激增，并得出了一个无效结果。关键的经济机制通过菲利普斯曲线的通缩渠道发挥作用，而货币和财政刺激则通过通常的需求渠道对通胀施加正向压力。我们从理论和实证两方面展示了这一负向供给侧渠道。1
网约车与物质使用障碍治疗
Conor Lennon, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keith F. Teltser #33077
Abstract: We examine whether ridesharing provides a meaningful transportation alternative for those who require ongoing healthcare. Specifically, we combine variation in UberX entry across the U.S. with the Treatment Episode Data Set to estimate the effect of ridesharing on admissions to substance use disorder treatment. People needing such treatment report transportation as a barrier to receiving care. We find that UberX entry into a Core Based Statistical Area has no effect on the overall number of treatment admissions. However, we find a decline in non-intensive outpatient treatment which is fully offset by an increase in intensive outpatient treatment. Given the required relative frequency of non-intensive and intensive outpatient treatment in terms of visits per week, our findings indicate that UberX helps to reduce transportation barriers to accessing healthcare. Event-studies show parallel trends in outcomes before UberX entry and results are robust to numerous sensitivity checks.
摘要：我们研究了网约车是否为那些需要持续医疗护理的人提供了一个有意义的交通替代方案。具体而言，我们结合了美国各地UberX进入市场的差异和治疗案例数据集，以估算网约车对物质使用障碍治疗入院的影响。需要此类治疗的人报告交通是接受护理的一个障碍。我们发现，UberX进入核心统计区对总体治疗入院人数没有影响。然而，我们发现非密集型门诊治疗有所下降，而密集型门诊治疗有所增加，两者完全相互抵消。考虑到非密集型和密集型门诊治疗每周访问频率的相对要求，我们的研究表明，UberX有助于减少获取医疗服务的交通障碍。事件研究显示，在UberX进入之前，结果指标的趋势是平行的，且结果在多种敏感性检验中具有稳健性。
非二元性别身份与收入：来自全国人口普查的证据
Christopher S. Carpenter, Donn L. Feir, Krishna Pendakur, and Casey Warman #33075
Abstract: The social and legal recognition of nonbinary people—those who do not exclusively identify with traditionally male or female genders—is growing. Yet, we know little about their economic realities. We offer the first nationally representative evidence on the earnings of nonbinary people using restricted-access 2021 Canadian Census data linked to tax records. We find that, although nonbinary individuals tend to be more educated than their peers, they have significantly lower earnings, especially at the bottom of the income distribution, even after adjusting for various demographic and socioeconomic factors.
摘要：对非二元性别者（那些不完全认同传统男性或女性性别的人）的社会和法律认可正在增加。然而，我们对他们的经济状况知之甚少。我们利用与税收记录关联的2021年加拿大人口普查受限数据，首次提供了关于非二元性别者收入的全国代表性证据。我们发现，尽管非二元性别者的受教育程度通常高于其同龄人，但他们的收入显著较低，尤其是在收入分配的底端，即使在调整了各种人口和社会经济因素后，仍然如此。
全州范围内学校停课禁令的影响
Jane Arnold Lincove, Catherine Mata, and Kalena Cortes #33086
Abstract: This research analyzes the implementation of a school suspension ban in Maryland to investigate whether a top-down state-initiated ban on suspensions in early primary grades can influence school behavior regarding school discipline. Beginning in the fall of 2017, the State of Maryland banned the use of out-of-school suspensions for grades PK-2, unless a student posed an “imminent threat” to staff or students. This research investigates (1) what was the effect of the ban on discipline outcomes for students in both treated grades and upper elementary grades not subject to the ban? (2) did schools bypass the ban by coding more events as threatening or increasing the use of in-school suspensions? and (3) were there differential effects for students in groups that are historically suspended more often? Using a comparative interrupted time series strategy, we find that the ban is associated with a substantial reduction in, but not a total elimination of, out-of-school suspensions for targeted grades without substitution of in-school suspensions. Disproportionalities by race and other characteristics remain after the ban. Grades not subject to the ban experienced few effects, suggesting the ban did not trigger a schoolwide response that reduced exclusionary discipline.
摘要：本研究分析了马里兰州实施的学校停课禁令，以探讨自上而下的州级禁令在早期小学阶段是否能影响学校的纪律行为。从2017年秋季开始，马里兰州禁止对学前班至二年级学生实施校外停课，除非学生对教职员工或其他学生构成“迫在眉睫的威胁”。本研究探讨了以下问题：(1) 禁令对受影响年级和未受禁令限制的高年级小学生的纪律结果有何影响？(2) 学校是否通过将更多事件归类为威胁或增加校内停课的使用来绕过禁令？以及 (3) 对于那些历史上更容易被停课的学生群体，禁令是否有不同的影响？通过使用比较中断时间序列策略，我们发现禁令与目标年级的校外停课大幅减少相关，但未完全消除，且没有出现校内停课的替代情况。然而，种族和其他特征的不均衡性在禁令实施后依然存在。未受禁令限制的年级几乎没有受到影响，这表明禁令未引发学校范围内减少排斥性纪律的反应。
偏好、选择与教师薪酬结构
Andrew C. Johnston #33088
Abstract: I examine teacher preferences using a discrete-choice experiment, which I link to administrative data on teacher effectiveness. I estimate willingness-to-pay for a rich set of compensation elements and working conditions. Highly effective teachers usually have the same preferences as their peers, but they have stronger preferences for performance pay. I use the preference estimates to investigate the optimal compensation structure for three key objectives: maximizing teacher utility, maximizing teacher retention, and maximizing student achievement. Under each objective, schools underutilize salary and performance pay, while overutilizing retirement benefits. Restructuring compensation can significantly improve both teacher welfare and student achievement.
摘要：我使用离散选择实验来研究教师偏好，并将其与教师有效性的行政数据相结合。我估算了教师对各种薪酬元素和工作条件的支付意愿。高效教师通常与其同事有相似的偏好，但他们对绩效工资有更强的偏好。我利用这些偏好估算结果来探讨三大关键目标下的最优薪酬结构：最大化教师效用、最大化教师留任率和最大化学生成绩。在每个目标下，学校对薪资和绩效工资的利用不足，而对退休福利的利用过度。重新调整薪酬结构可以显著改善教师福利和学生成绩。
利用长期数据重新思考短期实际利率和期限利差
Kenneth S. Rogoff, Barbara Rossi, and Paul Schmelzing #33079
Abstract: Utilizing critical recent data advances, we analyze empirical evidence on long-run samples of short-maturity real interest rates as well as term spreads based on multi-century data. In contrast to an extensive literature on short-maturity real interest rates over the past few decades, we find strong and consistent evidence of trend stationarity in long horizon series, relatively fast adjustment speeds, and a paucity of structural breaks – results that we show to survive out of sample tests. The use of very long-run data offers a fresh perspective for ongoing monetary policy debates surrounding r*, and also provides a crucial missing link to reconstructing the long-run properties of term spreads. On balance and against limited post-COVID data, our evidence suggests caution on the idea of a break in short-term real interest rate behavior and instead points to elements of continuity over very long time periods. Relatedly, we show that term spreads are secularly rising while inflation volatility trends in the exact opposite direction – a finding questioning the emphasis of influential term structure models.
摘要：利用最近的数据进展，我们分析了基于多个世纪数据的短期实际利率和期限利差的长期样本的实证证据。与过去几十年关于短期实际利率的大量文献相比，我们发现长期序列中存在显著且一致的趋势平稳性、相对快速的调整速度以及较少的结构性突变——这些结果在样本外测试中也得到了验证。使用长期数据为围绕r*的货币政策辩论提供了新的视角，同时也为重建期限利差的长期特性提供了一个关键的缺失环节。总体而言，结合有限的后疫情数据，我们的证据对短期实际利率行为的突变假设提出了谨慎的看法，而是指出了长期时间段内的连续性特征。与此同时，我们显示期限利差在长期内呈上升趋势，而通胀波动性则表现出相反的趋势——这一发现对一些有影响力的期限结构模型的重心提出了质疑。
海洋微塑料与婴儿健康
Xinming Du, Shan Zhang, and Eric Zou #33094
Abstract: A century of plastic usage has led to an accumulation of plastic waste in waterways and oceans. Over time, these wastes break down into particles smaller than 5 microns – or “microplastics” – which can infiltrate human biological systems. Despite decades of research into this emerging source of pollution, there is a paucity of direct evidence on the health impacts of microplastics exposure at a population scale. This paper reports the first empirical link between in-utero microplastic exposure and adverse birth outcomes. Our analysis is based on a dataset of 3 million births that occurred in coastal areas of 15 countries spanning four continents, which we merge with novel remote-sensing measurements of marine microplastic concentrations. We show that in-utero exposure to microplastics, particularly during the second and third trimesters, leads to a significant increase in the likelihood of low birth weight. A doubling of exposure increases low birth weight hazard by 0.37 per 1,000 births, which implies that over 205,000 cases per year globally can be attributed to microplastic exposure. We further show that aerosolization – whereby microplastic particles become airborne and inhalable due to seawater evaporation – is an important pathway for health impact, a challenge likely to escalate as ocean temperatures rise.
摘要：一个世纪以来，塑料的使用导致了塑料废物在水道和海洋中的积累。随着时间的推移，这些废物分解成小于5微米的颗粒——即“微塑料”——这些微粒可以渗入人体生物系统。尽管几十年来对这一新兴污染源进行了研究，但关于微塑料暴露对大规模人群健康影响的直接证据仍然稀缺。本文首次报告了子宫内微塑料暴露与不良出生结局之间的实证联系。我们的分析基于一个包含15个国家沿海地区的300万例出生数据集，这些国家分布在四大洲。我们将该数据集与海洋微塑料浓度的最新遥感测量数据相结合。研究表明，子宫内微塑料暴露，尤其是在妊娠中期和晚期，会显著增加低出生体重的发生概率。暴露量增加一倍，每千次出生中低出生体重的风险增加0.37例，这意味着每年全球有超过205,000例低出生体重可以归因于微塑料暴露。我们进一步指出，气溶胶化——即微塑料颗粒因海水蒸发而进入空气并被吸入——是影响健康的重要途径，随着海洋温度上升，这一挑战可能加剧。
公司气候投资：乐观的一面
Prachi Srivastava, Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites, and Ivan Yotzov #33081
Abstract: We analyse the importance of climate-related investment using a large economy-wide survey of UK firms. Over half of firms expect climate change to have a positive impact on their investment in the medium term, with around a quarter expecting a large impact of over 10%. Around two-thirds of these investments are expected to be in addition to normal capital expenditure, with some firms investing less elsewhere. These investments will be driven by larger firms as well as those in more energy-intensive sectors. Climate investments are expected mainly in switching to green energy sources and improving energy efficiency, and firms expect to finance these mainly using internal cash reserves. Overall, although firms are expecting to invest more resources in adapting to climate change, under reasonable assumptions, these investments are still not sufficient to meet the estimated targets implied by the UK Net Zero Pathway.
摘要：我们通过对英国公司进行的大规模经济调查分析了气候相关投资的重要性。超过一半的公司预计气候变化将在中期对其投资产生积极影响，其中约四分之一的公司预计影响将超过10%。预计这些投资中约有三分之二将是正常资本支出之外的新增投入，但也有一些公司会减少其他方面的投资。这些投资主要由大型公司以及那些能源密集型行业的公司推动。气候投资预计主要集中在转向绿色能源和提高能源效率方面，公司预计主要通过内部现金储备来为这些投资融资。总体而言，尽管公司预计将投入更多资源以适应气候变化，但在合理假设下，这些投资仍不足以达到英国净零路径所要求的目标。
往期精选：
