家庭流动性与抵押贷款利率锁定

Jack Liebersohn and Jesse Rothstein #32781

Abstract: Rising interest rates can create “mortgage rate lock” for homeowners with fixed rate mortgages, who can hold onto their low rates as long as they stay in their homes but would have to take on new mortgages with higher rates if they moved. We show mobility rates fell in 2022 and 2023 for homeowners with mortgages, as market rates rose. We observe both absolute declines and declines relative to homeowners without mortgages, who are unaffected by mortgage rate lock. Mobility declines are not explained by changes in home values. Overall, our estimates imply that rising interest rates reduced mobility in 2022 and 2023 for households with mortgages by 16% and caused $20 billion of deadweight loss.

摘要：利率上升会导致固定利率抵押贷款房主产生“抵押贷款利率锁定”现象，因为只要他们继续居住在现有房屋中就可以维持低利率，但如果搬迁就必须承担更高利率的新贷款。我们的研究表明，随着市场利率上升，2022年和2023年有抵押贷款的房主的流动性下降。我们观察到了绝对下降以及相对于不受抵押贷款利率锁定影响的无抵押贷款房主的相对下降。流动性下降不能用房屋价值的变化来解释。总体而言，我们的估计显示，利率上升导致2022年和2023年有抵押贷款的家庭流动性下降了16%，并造成了200亿美元的无谓损失。

政治中的当前偏见与自我承诺条约

Bård Harstad and Anke Kessler #32780

Abstract: We study how international agreements can take advantage of domestic time-inconsistency problems in the context of environmental policies. For example, policymakers will prefer future policies to be sustainable, but find it tempting to raise consumption when being in office. We find the equilibrium number of signatory countries to be higher than when preferences are time consistent, especially when the political environment is unstable and polarized, and the international spillovers are limited. In contrast to the traditional literature, the model can also explain why countries sign conventions with mandates that do not vary with the coalition size.

摘要：我们研究了国际协议如何在环境政策的背景下利用国内时间不一致性问题。例如，政策制定者希望未来的政策具有可持续性，但在任期内，他们可能倾向于增加消费。我们发现，在政治环境不稳定和极化、国际溢出效应有限的情况下，签约国的平衡数量高于偏好时间一致的情况下。与传统文献相反，该模型还可以解释为什么国家会签署那些不随联盟规模变化的任务条约。

钱包政治：财富对政治偏好与参与的影响

Anton Brännlund, David Cesarini, Karl-Oskar Lindgren, Erik Lindqvist, Sven Oskarsson, and Robert Östling #32777

Abstract: The rich tend to support policies favoring the affluent and are over-represented among both voters and legislators. This paper investigates whether these correlations reflect causal effects of wealth by leveraging random, positive wealth shocks in the form of lottery prizes. Compared to suitably matched controls, large-prize winners are no more likely to cast votes in national elections or run for political office. We also find no significant effects of parents’ lottery winnings on their children’s political participation. But winners of large lottery prizes become more negative toward taxes on wealth, real estate and inheritances. Although we do not detect any statistically significant effects on other political preferences, effects tend to go in the direction of a more right-wing political orientation. We find no evidence that lottery wealth changes moral values or strengthen beliefs in the importance of hard work for success in life.

摘要：富人倾向于支持有利于富裕阶层的政策，并且在选民和立法者中所占比例过高。本文通过利用随机的正向财富冲击（如彩票奖金）来探讨这些相关性是否反映了财富的因果效应。与合适的对照组相比，大额奖金获得者在全国选举中投票或竞选公职的可能性并不更高。我们还发现，父母的彩票奖金对其子女的政治参与没有显著影响。但大额彩票中奖者对财富、房地产和遗产税的态度变得更加消极。尽管我们没有发现对其他政治偏好的统计显著影响，但影响倾向于向更右翼的政治取向发展。我们没有发现证据表明彩票财富会改变道德价值观或加强对努力工作在生活中取得成功的重要性的信念。

通过委员会进行创新采用：评估FDA的决策过程

Nathan J. Canen and Matias Iaryczower #32787

Abstract: The FDA is responsible for the approval of new drugs, biological products and medical devices in the United States. As part of the approval process, the FDA relies on advisory committees, which provide independent advice from outside experts. We combine a structural approach with newly collected data from meetings' transcripts to study the process of collective learning and policy recommendation in advisory committees. We quantify the effectiveness of advisory panels, and evaluate changes to its institutional framework. We find that deliberation significantly increases the accuracy of decision-making. Changes in deliberation rules or committee membership do not uniformly improve outcomes.

摘要：美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）负责批准美国的新药、生物产品和医疗设备。作为审批过程的一部分，FDA依赖于咨询委员会，这些委员会提供来自外部专家的独立建议。我们结合结构性方法和从会议记录中收集的新数据来研究咨询委员会的集体学习和政策建议过程。我们量化了咨询小组的有效性，并评估其制度框架的变化。我们的研究发现，讨论显著提高了决策的准确性。然而，改变讨论规则或委员会成员构成并不会普遍改善结果。

首先不伤害？医生决策与患者结果

Janet Currie, W. Bentley MacLeod, and Kate Musen #32788

Abstract: Doctors facing similar patients often make different treatment choices. These decisions can have important effects on patient health and health care spending. This paper seeks to organize the recent economics literature on physician decision making using a simple model that incorporates doctor diagnostic and procedural skills, differences in beliefs and patient populations, and incentives. Economic considerations that affect the quality of decision making include training, experience, peer effects, financial incentives and time constraints. We also consider interventions aimed at improving decision making including provision of informational, heuristics and guidelines, and the use of technologies including electronic medical records and algorithmic decision tools. Our review suggests that we have learned a great deal about specific factors that influence doctor decision making but that our knowledge of how to apply that knowledge to improve health care is still quite limited.

摘要：面对类似患者的医生通常会做出不同的治疗选择。这些决策可能对患者健康和医疗支出产生重要影响。本文尝试使用一个简单的模型来整理关于医生决策的最新经济学文献，该模型结合了医生的诊断和程序技能、信念差异、患者群体以及激励因素。影响决策质量的经济考虑因素包括培训、经验、同侪效应、经济激励和时间限制。我们还考虑了旨在改善决策的干预措施，包括提供信息、启发式方法和指导方针，以及使用技术（如电子病历和算法决策工具）。我们的研究综述表明，我们已经对影响医生决策的具体因素有了很多了解，但对于如何应用这些知识来改善医疗保健，我们的认识仍然相当有限。

堕胎服务的可及性与儿童虐待

Erkmen G. Aslim, Wei Fu, and Erdal Tekin #32771

Abstract: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between the accessibility of abortion services and incidences of child maltreatment across the United States, using data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and the Myers abortion facility database from 2011 to 2018. The analysis reveals that a rise in travel distance to the nearest abortion facility significantly increases the incidence of child maltreatment. Specifically, we find that a 100-mile increase in travel distance was associated with a 21.7% increase in maltreatment reports. This effect is particularly pronounced for very young children, non-White children, and those living in economically disadvantaged, racially diverse, and rural areas. Furthermore, supplemental analyses using data from the National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) and county-level eviction records for renting households reveal economic stability and housing security as significant mediators linking barriers to abortion services to an increased risk of maltreatment. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between reproductive health services access, socio-economic factors, and child welfare.

摘要：本研究利用2011年至2018年的国家事件报告系统（NIBRS）和迈尔斯堕胎设施数据库的数据，对美国堕胎服务的可及性与儿童虐待事件之间的关系进行了全面分析。分析表明，前往最近堕胎机构的旅行距离增加显著提高了儿童虐待的发生率。具体而言，我们发现旅行距离增加100英里与虐待报告增加21.7%相关。这一效应在年幼儿童、非白人儿童以及居住在经济困难、种族多样化和农村地区的儿童中尤为明显。此外，使用国家儿童虐待和忽视数据系统（NCANDS）和县级租房家庭驱逐记录的数据进行的补充分析表明，经济稳定性和住房安全性是将堕胎服务障碍与虐待风险增加联系在一起的重要中介因素。这些研究结果有助于深入理解生殖健康服务获取、社会经济因素和儿童福利之间复杂的相互作用。

通过详细投资类型和基于工程的折旧估算构建BEA高速公路和街道净财富存量

Barbara M. Fraumeni and Robert Kornfeld #32753

Abstract: This paper builds on a previous paper by the authors (Kornfeld and Fraumeni, 2022) that primarily used U.S. Federal Highway Administration Highway Statistics data to disaggregate investment in highways and streets into more detailed types to produce updated estimates of net wealth stocks and depreciation. In this paper, major components of highways and streets other than pavement: grading, bridges and other structures, traffic management, safety, and environmental, are set equal to comprehensive revision updated versions of those derived in the earlier paper. All capital outlays, including those for pavement, and non-pavement net wealth stocks, are controlled to current BEA estimates. The engineering-based depreciation patterns are very dissimilar to the BEA patterns. The engineering-based net wealth pavement stock depreciation patterns fall from an efficiency level of about 0.055 to zero after 20 years of life; the BEA Hulten-Wykoff-based net wealth pavement stock depreciation patterns are at approximately the same efficiency level after 62 years, with a positive efficiency level continuing to infinity. BEA adopted Hulten-Wykoff default depreciation rates in the absence of other information (Fraumeni, 1997), however research by Fraumeni established engineering-based Picher pavement depreciation rates for highways and streets (Fraumeni, 1999, 2007).

摘要：本文建立在作者之前的论文（Kornfeld 和 Fraumeni，2022）基础上，该论文主要利用美国联邦公路管理局的公路统计数据，将高速公路和街道的投资细分为更详细的类型，以提供更新的净财富存量和折旧估算。在本文中，除了路面之外的高速公路和街道的主要组成部分：整地、桥梁和其他结构、交通管理、安全和环境，与之前论文中得出的全面修订版本保持一致。所有资本支出，包括路面和非路面净财富存量，均与当前的 BEA 估算保持一致。基于工程的折旧模式与 BEA 的折旧模式非常不同。基于工程的净财富路面存量折旧模式在20年寿命后从约0.055的效率水平下降到零；而 BEA 基于 Hulten-Wykoff 的净财富路面存量折旧模式在62年后保持大约相同的效率水平，并且正效率水平持续到无限大。由于缺乏其他信息，BEA 采用了 Hulten-Wykoff 默认折旧率（Fraumeni，1997），然而 Fraumeni 的研究确立了基于工程的高速公路和街道的 Picher 路面折旧率（Fraumeni，1999，2007）。

私有化对国有企业的影响：僵尸企业与健康企业的故事

Ruiting Wang, Xue Wang, Gang Xu, and Tao Zha #32795

Abstract: We estimate the effects of privatization on zombie versus healthy state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China, extending our analysis beyond TFP to a broad array of financial and economic indicators. Privatizing zombie SOEs enhances labor productivity and TFP, reduces bank and government subsidies, alleviates leverage and administrative expenses, improves liquidity, boosts profits, and accelerates sales growth. These benefits are more pronounced than for healthy SOEs and are robust across regions and industries. Our findings offer policy implications for emerging markets, suggesting that prioritizing the privatization of underperforming, zombie-like entities can lead to substantial economic improvements and greater efficiency.

摘要：我们研究了私有化对中国僵尸国有企业（SOEs）与健康国有企业的影响，将分析范围扩展到广泛的金融和经济指标，而不仅仅是全要素生产率（TFP）。私有化僵尸国有企业提升了劳动生产率和全要素生产率，减少了银行和政府的补贴，缓解了杠杆率和管理费用，改善了流动性，提高了利润，并加速了销售增长。这些收益比健康国有企业更加显著，并且在各个地区和行业中都具有稳健性。我们的研究结果对新兴市场有政策启示，表明优先私有化表现不佳、类似僵尸的实体可以带来显著的经济改善和更高的效率。

选举民调中非响应的影响：总误差范围

Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski #32782

Abstract: The potential impact of nonresponse on election polls is well known and frequently acknowledged. Yet measurement and reporting of polling error has focused solely on sampling error, represented by the margin of error of a poll. Survey statisticians have long recommended measurement of the total survey error of a sample estimate by its mean square error (MSE), which jointly measures sampling and non-sampling errors. Extending the conventional language of polling, we think it reasonable to use the square root of maximum MSE to measure the total margin of error. This paper demonstrates how to measure the potential impact of nonresponse using the concept of the total margin of error, which we argue should be a standard feature in the reporting of election poll results. We first show how to jointly measure statistical imprecision and response bias when a pollster lacks any knowledge of the candidate preferences of non-responders. We then extend the analysis to settings where the pollster has partial knowledge that bounds the preferences of non-responders.

摘要：民调中非响应对选举结果的潜在影响是众所周知的，并经常被承认。然而，民调误差的测量和报告一直专注于抽样误差，即民调的误差范围。调查统计学家早已建议通过样本估计的均方误差（MSE）来测量样本估计的总调查误差，它可以共同衡量抽样和非抽样误差。扩展传统的民调语言，我们认为使用最大均方误差的平方根来衡量总误差范围是合理的。本文演示了如何使用总误差范围的概念来测量非响应的潜在影响，我们认为这应该成为选举民调结果报告的标准特征。首先，我们展示了在民调人员不了解未回应者的候选人偏好的情况下，如何共同测量统计不精确性和响应偏差。然后，我们将分析扩展到民调人员拥有部分信息以限制未回应者偏好的情况。

韩国长期实际汇率行为的理解

Douglas A. Irwin and Maurice Obstfeld #32769

Abstract: Korea’s real exchange rate has displayed a mild downward trend since the 1980s, with fluctuations of ±20 percent around that trend. This pattern is surprising because the classic Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson framework suggests that countries experiencing rapid growth in the productivity of their tradable industries should experience real currency appreciation over time. We decompose the sources of change behind the Korean won’s real exchange rate into internal price drivers (the relative price of nontradable goods) and external price drivers (the international relative price of tradable consumption goods, which is heavily dependent on the nominal exchange rate). We find that, on average, the variability in Korea’s real exchange rate, even over long periods, is overwhelmingly due to external price factors. Given the persistent medium-term effects of nominal exchange rate changes on the real exchange rate, the Korean policy of intervening in foreign exchange markets to smooth exchange rate fluctuations appears prudent. However, we also find that over the entire period 1985-2023, internal price factors are the main explanator of the won’s real depreciation. This finding poses a puzzle for standard accounts of the linkage between productivity growth and real exchange rates.

摘要：自20世纪80年代以来，韩国的实际汇率呈现出轻微的下降趋势，并在这一趋势周围波动±20%。这一模式令人惊讶，因为经典的Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson框架表明，那些可贸易品行业生产率快速增长的国家应随着时间的推移经历实际货币升值。我们将韩元实际汇率变化的来源分解为内部价格驱动因素（不可贸易品的相对价格）和外部价格驱动因素（可贸易消费品的国际相对价格，这在很大程度上依赖于名义汇率）。我们发现，即使在较长时期内，韩国实际汇率的变动主要是由于外部价格因素引起的。鉴于名义汇率变化对实际汇率具有持续的中期影响，韩国通过干预外汇市场来平抑汇率波动的政策显得明智。然而，我们还发现，在1985年至2023年期间，内部价格因素是韩元实际贬值的主要解释。这一发现对标准的生产率增长与实际汇率之间联系的解释提出了挑战。

往期精选：

      重磅：学术财经•学术笔记全汇总

重磅：学术财经全球价值链专题学术笔记大汇总（附下载链接失效学术笔记推文）

重磅| 基金申请内部学习和交流

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【学术笔记·第36篇】各有所长：全球供应链风险敞口（Exposure）测度

【学术笔记·第35篇】日本生产者价格指数理论与实证：最终需求-中间需求加总系统

【学术笔记·第34篇】北美自由贸易的贸易和福利影响估计

【学术笔记 第33篇】 英属印度时期铁路：交通基础设施的影响评估（AER）

【学术笔记 第32篇】 技术、地理和贸易(经典EK模型）

【学术笔记 第31篇】2018年贸易战对美国物价和福利的影响

【学术笔记 第30篇】全球价值链和国家部门层面实际有效汇率