债权人之间的冲突与担保债务动态

Samuel Antill, Neng Wang, and Zhaoli Jiang #32823

Abstract: Secured lenders have recently demanded a new condition in distressed debt restructurings: competing secured lenders must lose priority. We model the implications of this “creditor-on-creditor violence” trend. In our dynamic model, secured lenders enjoy higher priority in default. However, secured lenders take value-destroying actions to boost their own recovery: they sell assets inefficiently early. We show that this creates an ex-ante tradeoff between secured and unsecured debt that matches recent empirical evidence. Introducing the recent creditor-conflict trend in this model endogenously increases secured credit spreads. Importantly, it also increases ex-ante total surplus: restructurings endogenously introduce efficient state-contingent debt reduction.

摘要：最近，在陷入困境的债务重组中，担保债权人提出了一个新的条件：竞争的担保债权人必须失去优先权。我们通过模型分析了这一“债权人之间的冲突”趋势的影响。在我们的动态模型中，担保债权人在违约情况下享有更高的优先权。然而，担保债权人为了提升自身的回收率，会采取破坏价值的行为，比如在不合适的时机提前出售资产。我们展示了这在事前造成了担保债务和无担保债务之间的权衡，这与最近的实证证据相吻合。将最近的债权人冲突趋势引入模型中，内生地导致了担保信贷利差的增加。重要的是，这也增加了事前的总体剩余：重组内生地引入了基于状态的有效债务减免。

种族、族裔与测量误差

Bruce D. Meyer, Nikolas Mittag, and Derek Wu #32860

Abstract: Large literatures have analyzed racial and ethnic disparities in economic outcomes and access to the safety net. For such analyses that rely on survey data, it is crucial that survey accuracy does not vary by race and ethnicity. Otherwise, the observed disparities may be confounded by differences in survey error. In this paper, we review existing studies that use linked data to assess the reporting of key programs (including SNAP, Social Security, Unemployment Insurance, TANF, Medicaid, Medicare, and private pensions) in major Census Bureau surveys, aiming to extract the evidence on differences in survey accuracy by race and ethnicity. Our key finding is a strong and robust, but previously largely unnoticed, pattern of greater measurement error for Black and Hispanic individuals and households relative to whites. As the dominant error is under-reporting for a wide variety of programs, samples, and surveys, the implication is that the safety net better supports minority groups than the survey data suggest, through higher program receipt and greater poverty reduction. These biases in survey estimates are large in many cases examined in the literature. We conclude that racial and ethnic minorities are inadequately served by our large household surveys and that researchers should cautiously interpret survey-based estimates of racial and ethnic differences in program receipt and post-benefit income. We briefly discuss paths forward.

摘要：大量文献已经分析了在经济结果和社会保障网的可及性方面的种族和族裔差异。对于依赖调查数据的此类分析来说，调查的准确性不应因种族和族裔而异，否则，观察到的差异可能会因调查误差的不同而受到混淆。在本文中，我们回顾了使用关联数据评估主要人口普查局调查中关键项目（包括SNAP、社会保障、失业保险、TANF、医疗补助、医疗保险和私人养老金）报告情况的现有研究，旨在提取关于种族和族裔之间调查准确性差异的证据。我们的主要发现是，相较于白人，黑人和西班牙裔个人及家庭的测量误差更大，这一强烈且稳固的模式此前大多未被注意到。由于在各种项目、样本和调查中的主要误差是未报告，意味着实际中社会保障网对少数族裔群体的支持比调查数据所显示的更为有效，反映在更高的项目参与率和更大的贫困减少效果中。这种偏差在文献中考察的许多情况下都是显著的。我们得出的结论是，大型家庭调查未能充分服务于种族和族裔少数群体，研究人员在解释基于调查的种族和族裔差异时应持谨慎态度。我们简要讨论了未来可能的解决途径。

高中阶段的技术教育能否帮助残疾学生顺利过渡到高等教育？

Eric Brunner, Shaun Dougherty, and Stephen Ross #32867

Abstract: Participation in Career Technical Education (CTE) programs has been proposed as a valuable strategy for supporting transition to independence among students with disabilities. We exploit a discontinuity created by admissions thresholds from a statewide system of CTE high schools. Our findings suggest attending CTE high schools has large positive effects on completing high school on time, employment, and earnings, including for individuals 22 years or older. Attending CTE schools also results in more time spent with non-disabled peers and higher 10th grade test scores. These results appear concentrated among male students, but the sample of female students is too small to support strong conclusions about outcomes. Notably, these estimates are for a system of CTE high schools operating at scale and serving students across a wide spectrum of disabilities, and the estimated effects appear broad based over disability type, time spent with non-disabled peers in 8th grade and previous academic performance.

摘要：参与职业技术教育（CTE）项目被提出作为支持残疾学生过渡到独立生活的一种宝贵策略。我们利用一个由州范围内CTE高中系统的录取门槛所造成的不连续性来进行研究。我们的研究结果表明，参加CTE高中对按时完成高中、就业和收入具有显著的积极影响，包括对于22岁或以上的个人。参加CTE学校还导致了与非残疾同龄人更多的互动时间以及更高的10年级测试成绩。这些结果似乎主要集中在男学生中，但由于女学生的样本量过小，无法得出关于结果的强有力结论。值得注意的是，这些估计是针对一个大规模运作的CTE高中系统，并且服务于具有广泛残疾类型的学生，估计的影响似乎在不同残疾类型、8年级时与非残疾同龄人相处的时间以及之前的学业表现上都有广泛分布。

加价与减价

Chad Syverson #32871

Abstract: Interest in market power has recently surged among economists in many fields, well beyond its traditional home in industrial organization. This has focused empirical attention on markups, the ratios of price to marginal cost in product markets, and markdowns, the ratios of inputs’ marginal products to their paid wage in factor markets. In this review, I offer a conceptual overview of both metrics and survey recent research examining them. I pay particular attention to the distinct interests that microeconomists and macroeconomists have had regarding these metrics, as well as topics that have bridged and are bridging these often distinct literatures.

摘要：最近，市场力量的兴趣在许多经济学领域迅速增长，远远超出了其传统的工业组织领域。这一趋势使得经验研究聚焦于加价（即产品市场中价格与边际成本的比率）和减价（即要素市场中投入的边际产出与所支付工资的比率）。在这篇综述中，我对这两个指标进行了概念性概述，并回顾了最近关于它们的研究。我特别关注了微观经济学家和宏观经济学家对这些指标所持的不同兴趣，以及那些已经并正在桥接这两个通常截然不同的文献的研究主题。

疫情后通货膨胀的驱动因素

Domenico Giannone and Giorgio Primiceri #32859

Abstract: Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but also in the Euro Area. In comparison, the inflationary impact of adverse supply shocks was less pronounced, even though these shocks significantly constrained economic activity. With output already weakened by these unfavourable supply conditions, any attempt by the European Central Bank to further mitigate the demand-driven inflationary pressures---to maintain inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery.

摘要：新冠疫情后的通货膨胀主要是由意外强劲的需求力量驱动的，不仅在美国如此，欧元区也是如此。相比之下，供应冲击的不利影响对通货膨胀的推动作用则较为有限，尽管这些冲击显著限制了经济活动。在产出已经因这些不利的供应条件而削弱的情况下，欧洲中央银行若试图进一步缓解由需求推动的通货膨胀压力，以将通胀维持在其2％的目标附近，将会严重阻碍本已疲弱的经济复苏。

中央银行数字货币（CBDCs）、支付公司与地缘政治

Tobias Berg, Jan Keil, Felix Martini, and Manju Puri #32857

Abstract: We analyze the effect of a major central bank digital currency (CBDC) – the digital euro – on the payment industry to find remarkably heterogeneous effects. Stock prices of U.S. payment firms decrease, while stock prices of European payment firms increase in response to positive announcements on the digital euro. Bank stocks do not react. We estimate a loss in market capitalization of USD 127 billion for U.S. payment firms, vis-à-vis a gain of USD 23 billion for European payment firms. Our results emphasize the medium-of-exchange function of CBDCs and point to a novel geopolitical dimension of CBDCs: enhanced autonomy in payments.

摘要：我们分析了主要央行数字货币（CBDC）——数字欧元——对支付行业的影响，发现了显著的异质性效应。美国支付公司的股价下降，而欧洲支付公司的股价在有关数字欧元的正面消息发布后则上升。银行股没有显著反应。我们估计美国支付公司的市值损失为1270亿美元，相比之下，欧洲支付公司的市值增加了230亿美元。我们的研究结果强调了CBDC的交换媒介功能，并指出了CBDC的一个新的地缘政治维度：在支付领域增强自主权。

学习企业行为：作为工具变量相关性基础的传导效应

Adam Dearing, Lorenzo Magnolfi, Daniel Quint, Christopher J. Sullivan, and Sarah B. Waldfogel #32863

Abstract:Researchers often test firm conduct models using pass-through regressions or instrumental variables (IV) methods. The former has limited applicability; the latter relies on potentially irrelevant instruments. We show the falsifiable restriction underlying the IV method generalizes the pass-through regression, and cost pass-through differences are the economic determinants of instrument relevance. We analyze standard instruments' relevance and link instrument selection to target counterfactuals. We illustrate our findings via simulations and an application to the Washington marijuana market. Testing conduct using targeted instruments, we find the optimal ad valorem tax closely matches the actual rate.

摘要：研究人员经常使用传导回归或工具变量（IV）方法来测试企业行为模型。前者的适用性有限，而后者则依赖于可能无关的工具变量。我们展示了IV方法背后的可证伪限制如何推广了传导回归，并且成本传导差异是工具变量相关性的经济决定因素。我们分析了标准工具变量的相关性，并将工具变量的选择与目标反事实联系起来。我们通过模拟和对华盛顿大麻市场的应用来说明我们的发现。在使用目标工具变量测试企业行为时，我们发现最优从价税率与实际税率非常接近。

贫困与健康

Adriana Lleras-Muney, Hannes Schwandt, and Laura Wherry #32866

Abstract: Poverty is strongly associated with worse health across countries and within countries across individuals. However, not all poor individuals suffer from poor health: the effects of poverty on health vary across place and time. In this review, we discuss the evidence documenting these patterns, and the reasons for the associations. We then provide an overview of what is known about policies that may improve the health of the poor. We focus primarily on the modern-day United States, but also discuss evidence from historical experiences and low- and middle-income countries. Throughout we discuss areas in need of future research.

摘要：贫困与健康状况较差之间在各个国家以及国家内部的个体之间都存在着密切关联。然而，并非所有贫困个体都遭受健康问题：贫困对健康的影响在不同的地点和时间有所不同。在这篇综述中，我们讨论了记录这些模式的证据及其关联原因。接着，我们概述了现有的关于可能改善贫困人口健康的政策的研究成果。我们主要关注现代美国的情况，但也探讨了历史经验以及低收入和中等收入国家的相关证据。在整个讨论中，我们指出了未来研究需要关注的领域。

紧急经济援助对就业和收入的影响

Daniel M. Hungerman, David C. Phillips, James X. Sullivan, and Kevin Rinz #32856

Abstract: We examine the labor supply effects of short-term income transfers for families experiencing a housing crisis. We link callers of an emergency assistance homelessness prevention hotline to their federal tax records and measure their employment & earnings in years surrounding their calls. Our methodology exploits quasi-random variation in the availability of assistance to compare similar families receiving and not receiving funds. Looking up to four years post-assistance, we find evidence, especially for the lowest earners, of earnings and employment gains, and overall we find no evidence that assistance lowers earnings or employment. Our results indicate that any income effect of temporary transfers for those in crisis is minimal and that these transfers may convey labor market benefits for the poorest of the poor.

摘要：我们研究了针对面临住房危机的家庭的短期收入转移对劳动供给的影响。我们将呼叫紧急援助无家可归预防热线的人员与他们的联邦税务记录联系起来，测量他们在呼叫前后的就业和收入情况。我们的方法利用援助可用性上的准随机变化来比较那些获得和未获得资金的类似家庭。在援助后的四年内，我们发现特别是对于收入最低的家庭，收入和就业都有所增加，且总体上没有证据表明援助降低了收入或就业。我们的结果表明，对于那些处于危机中的人，临时收入转移的收入效应是微小的，这些转移可能为最贫困的人群带来劳动力市场上的好处。

往期精选：

      重磅：学术财经•学术笔记全汇总

重磅：学术财经全球价值链专题学术笔记大汇总（附下载链接失效学术笔记推文）

重磅| 基金申请内部学习和交流

【学术笔记·第37篇】风险和全球供应链：我们知道什么和我们需要知道什么

【学术笔记·第36篇】各有所长：全球供应链风险敞口（Exposure）测度

【学术笔记·第35篇】日本生产者价格指数理论与实证：最终需求-中间需求加总系统

【学术笔记·第34篇】北美自由贸易的贸易和福利影响估计

【学术笔记 第33篇】 英属印度时期铁路：交通基础设施的影响评估（AER）

【学术笔记 第32篇】 技术、地理和贸易(经典EK模型）

【学术笔记 第31篇】2018年贸易战对美国物价和福利的影响

【学术笔记 第30篇】全球价值链和国家部门层面实际有效汇率