AI：狼来了吗？

AI: A Force for Good?

AI：向善的力量？

Artificial intelligence can be dangerous. It can also be harnessed for good.

人工智能可能是危险的。它也可以被永远利用。

Posted December 24, 2024

 Reviewed by Abigail Fagan

发表于 2024 年 12 月 24 日

 由 Abigail Fagan 测评

AI can fuel misinformation, but it can also help us fight back.Research shows that interactions with AI can reduce people’s beliefs in conspiracy theories.Media literacy education could harness AI to help debunk misinformation, including conspiracy theories.

AI 可以助长错误信息，但它也可以帮助我们反击。研究表明，与 AI 的交互可以减少人们对阴谋论的信念。媒体素养教育可以利用人工智能来帮助揭穿错误信息，包括阴谋论。

We’ve all heard about the evils of artificial intelligence. Indeed, here at the Misinformation Desk, we have written recently about inaccuracies produced in response to queries by ChatGPT and several years ago (before the true heyday of AI) with regard to deepfakes. Obviously, AI is here to stay, so what if we could use AI to diminish misinformation rather than amplify it? Psychological science has some bad news for us, but then some good news (and some better news).

我们都听说过人工智能的弊端。事实上，在 Misinformation Desk，我们最近写了关于回应 ChatGPT 查询和几年前（在 AI 的真正鼎盛时期之前）关于深度伪造的不准确之处的文章。显然，人工智能将继续存在，那么如果我们可以使用 AI 来减少错误信息而不是放大它呢？心理科学对我们来说有一些坏消息，但也有一些好消息（和一些更好的消息）。

Conspiracy Theories Abound

阴谋论比比皆是

Let’s start with the bad news: Conspiracy theories are shockingly widespread and a majority of people believe in at least one. For example, a study of about 2,000 people in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand asked participants whether they knew about various conspiracy theories and whether they believed them (Marques et al., 2021). Participants read a varied list of international and local conspiracy theories, including “Scientists are creating panic about climate change because it is in their interests to do so” and “The Christchurch [New Zealand] mosque shootings were orchestrated with the intent of restricting gun laws in New Zealand.” Almost everyone in the study reported that they knew about at least one of the listed conspiracy theories. Even worse: A majority believed at least one.

让我们从坏消息开始：阴谋论的普遍性令人震惊，大多数人至少相信一种。例如，一项针对澳大利亚和新西兰 Aotearoa 约 2,000 人的研究询问参与者是否知道各种阴谋论以及是否相信这些阴谋论（Marques 等人，2021 年）。参与者阅读了各种国际和本地阴谋论，包括“科学家正在制造对气候变化的恐慌，因为这样做符合他们的利益”和“基督城 [新西兰] 清真寺枪击事件是精心策划的，目的是限制新西兰的枪支法律”。研究中几乎每个人都报告说他们至少知道列出的阴谋论之一。更糟糕的是：大多数人至少相信了一个。

Unfortunately, none of us is immune to this type of thinking. As noted by these authors, there have been similar findings from other countries. Even worse, research suggests that although some people naturally recover from their conspiracy-theory beliefs, it’s rare (Williams et al., 2024). After following about 500 research participants over six months, researchers reported that “beliefs in conspiracy theories were highly stable,” a general susceptibility that is worrisome for the future.

不幸的是，我们没有人能免受这种想法的影响。正如这些作者所指出的，其他国家也有类似的发现。更糟糕的是，研究表明，虽然有些人自然而然地从他们的阴谋论信仰中恢复过来，但这种情况很少见（Williams 等人，2024 年）。在对大约 500 名研究参与者进行了六个月的跟踪调查后，研究人员报告说，“对阴谋论的信念非常稳定”，这种普遍的敏感性对未来感到担忧。

AI to the Rescue

AI 救援

The good news comes from a research article published in the prestigious journal Science (Costello et al., 2024). Participants were randomly assigned to an experimental group in which AI would try to break down their belief in a conspiracy theory or a control group in which they would chat with AI about a non-conspiracy-related topic. The researchers asked each participant to describe a conspiracy theory that they believed, including any evidence that participants thought supported their chosen conspiracy theory. Participants’ proffered conspiracy theories included “classic” tropes (e.g., related to the assassination of John F. Kennedy or the existence of aliens) and more current ones (e.g., related to COVID-19 or the 2020 U.S. presidential election).

好消息来自发表在著名期刊 Science 上的一篇研究文章（Costello et al.， 2024）。参与者被随机分配到一个实验组，其中 AI 将试图打破他们对阴谋论的信念，或者被分配到一个对照组，在该组中，他们将与 AI 讨论与阴谋论无关的话题。研究人员要求每个参与者描述他们相信的阴谋论，包括参与者认为支持他们选择的阴谋论的任何证据。参与者提供的阴谋论包括 “经典 ”的比喻（例如，与约翰·肯尼迪遇刺或外星人的存在有关）和更现代的比喻（例如，与 COVID-19 或 2020 年美国总统大选有关）。

Next, the researchers asked participants in the experimental group to engage with AI in “real-time, personalized interactions.” The AI platform used a large language model (LLM) “that has access to vast amounts of information and the ability to generate bespoke arguments.” Over three rounds, the AI countered participants’ supposed evidence for their beliefs. The researchers reported that the AI intervention led to an average decrease in participants’ level of belief in their selected conspiracy theory of 20%, across all types of conspiracies). Moreover, the decrease lasted for the two months of the study (and, hopefully, longer).

接下来，研究人员要求实验组的参与者以“实时、个性化的交互”方式与 AI 互动。AI 平台使用了一个大型语言模型 （LLM），“该模型可以访问大量信息并能够生成定制论点”。在三轮比赛中，AI 反驳了参与者为他们的信仰提供的假定证据。研究人员报告说，人工智能干预导致参与者对他们选择的阴谋论的信仰水平平均下降了 20%，在所有类型的阴谋论中）。此外，这种下降持续了两个月的研究（希望能持续更长时间）。

Even better news: The researchers asked a fact-checker to verify a sample of 128 of the statements that AI made to counter the conspiracy theories. Over 99% of AI-made statements were true; none were false; only a tiny fraction were misleading. This means that the AI was doing a fantastic job at staying true to real-world data! Even better than that: Researchers documented a decrease in conspiratorial beliefs generally among participants in the experimental condition (as compared to the control condition), not just with respect to the conspiracy theory debunked during the study. Participants in the experimental group also reported that they were now more likely than those in the control group to push back against others who shared conspiratorial beliefs.

更好的消息是：研究人员要求事实核查员验证 AI 为反驳阴谋论而做出的 128 条声明的样本。超过 99% 的 AI 陈述是真实的;没有一个是假的;只有极小一部分具有误导性。这意味着 AI 在忠实于真实世界数据方面做得非常出色！甚至比这更好的是：研究人员记录了实验条件下的参与者（与对照条件相比）的阴谋论信念普遍减少，而不仅仅是在研究期间揭穿的阴谋论方面。实验组的参与者还报告说，他们现在比对照组的人更有可能反击其他有共同阴谋论信念的人。

An editor’s summary of this article encapsulates this good news: “This intervention illustrates how deploying AI may mitigate conflicts and serve society.” Here at the Misinformation Desk, we have long argued that media literacy must be integrated into education at every level. This research supports adding another tool to our kit. It also showcases how AI may be a boon to truth and not just a threat.

本文的编辑总结概括了这个好消息：“这种干预说明了部署 AI 如何缓解冲突并为社会服务。在 Misinformation Desk，我们长期以来一直认为，媒体素养必须融入各个层次的教育中。这项研究支持在我们的工具包中添加另一个工具。它还展示了 AI 如何成为真理的福音，而不仅仅是威胁。