公司：乐鑫科技（688018.SS、688018 CG）
Recent rally not only on sentiment
最近的反弹不仅源于情绪
Positive sentiment. Espressif stock rallied 56% in the past one week vs. CSI up 1% during the same period. The board secretary has clarified the following items:
积极情绪。 乐鑫科技在过去一周内上涨了56%，而同期CSI仅上涨了1%。董事会秘书已澄清以下事项：
Firstly, for the AI toy which uses Bytedance's large language model (Doubao) so far Espressif is not engaged in device business, but it does provide IoT chip module and software support to its customers. The smart doll (Battle Angel Alita) showcased in London Comic Con Winter is using ESP32 Microprocessor powering an OLED display.
首先，对于使用字节跳动的大型语言模型（豆包）的AI玩具，到目前为止，乐鑫科技并未涉足设备业务，但确实为其客户提供了物联网芯片模块和软件支持。在伦敦漫展冬季展会上展示的智能娃娃（战斗天使阿丽塔）使用的是 ESP32 微处理器，该处理器驱动了一个 OLED 显示屏。
For the Volcano Engine (Bytedance cloud service) Force Conference, Espressif management confirmed that it will deliver a keynote speech on topics like AI hardware and AI toys during the conference.
对于字节跳动的云服务“火山引擎”力量大会，Espressif 的管理层确认将在会议期间就 AI 硬件和 AI 玩具等主题发表主旨演讲。
Our thoughts: Other than the better sentiment, appliance offline sales in Nov (according to AVC) showed strong double digit Y/Y growth (e.g. A/C up 79.5% Y/Y, fridge up 56.3%, washing machine up 45.4%). Espressif is our preferred A-share pick on the MCU bottoming out theme (link).
我们的看法：除了情绪更加乐观外，根据AVC的数据，11月家电线下销售显示出强劲的两位数同比增长（例如，空调同比增长79.5%，冰箱增长56.3%，洗衣机增长45.4%）。在微控制器（MCU）见底主题上，乐鑫科技是我们首选的A股标的。
Espressif Systems (688018.SS)
乐鑫科技（688018.SS）
Base case, residual income model. We assume an 8.9% cost of equity (beta 1.1, risk-free rate 2.0% and risk premium 6.0%), a payout ratio of 40%, a medium-term growth rate of 18.5% and a terminal growth rate of 5.0%.
基本情况，剩余收益模型。我们假设股权成本为8.9%（贝塔系数为1.1，无风险利率为2.0%，风险溢价为6.0%），派息率为40%，中期增长率为18.5%，最终增长率为5.0%。
Risks to Upside
上行风险
China's MCU localization goes faster than expected.
中国MCU国产化的速度比预期的要快。
Gains traction from new customers.
从新客户那里获得吸引力。
Margin expansion is more significant.
利润扩张更为显著。
Risks to Downside
下行风险
China's MCU localization pace is slower than expected.
中国MCU国产化步伐比预期慢。
Traction from new customers is less than expected.
新客户的吸引力低于预期。
Margins erode amid more intense competition.
在更激烈的竞争中，利润率下降。
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