逆境赋能：经济冲击与埃塞俄比亚青年非认知能力的发展

Leonard Wantchekon and Sally Zhang #33305

Abstract: Despite the widespread economic shocks faced by children in developing countries, the factors that contribute to resilience remain poorly understood. In this paper, we present three novel facts on the development of noncognitive skills using a longitudinal dataset from Ethiopia. First, we observe a weak correlation between parental wealth and noncognitive skills. Second, we find that while adverse weather shock cause a slight decline in cognitive test scores, they boost noncognitive skills, including generalized self-efficacy, self-esteem, and internal locus of control. Lastly, we show that past exposure to adverse weather shocks is correlated with better mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. We rationalize these surprising findings within a model of cognitive and noncognitive skill development, where child agency serves a key role. In this model, when a child chooses to exert effort during a particular period, they not only increase their immediate consumption, but it also enhances their noncognitive skills through “learning by doing.” Incorporation of child agency in human capital development result in model predictions that are consistent with the empirical results, and highlights the policy relevance of improving child agency.

摘要：尽管发展中国家的儿童面临广泛的经济冲击，但促成其韧性的因素仍然缺乏深入研究。本文利用埃塞俄比亚的纵向数据集，提出了关于非认知能力发展的三个新发现。首先，我们观察到父母财富与非认知能力之间的相关性较弱。其次，我们发现，尽管不利的天气冲击会导致认知测试分数的轻微下降，却会提升非认知能力，包括广义自我效能感、自尊和内部控制点。最后，我们表明，过去经历过不利天气冲击的儿童在新冠疫情期间表现出更好的心理健康。我们通过一个认知和非认知能力发展的模型来解释这些令人意外的发现，其中儿童的主观能动性起到了关键作用。在该模型中，儿童在某一时期选择付出努力，不仅能增加当期的消费，还通过“实践中学习”增强其非认知能力。将儿童主观能动性纳入人力资本发展的框架中，模型预测与实证结果一致，并突出了提升儿童主观能动性对政策的重要意义。

货币战争与贸易

Kris James Mitchener and Kirsten Wandschneider #33313

Abstract: The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing their currencies relative to gold between 1929 and 1936. What were the currency war’s effects on trade flows? We use newly-compiled, high-frequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country’s trade was reduced by more than 21% following devaluation. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade costs.

摘要：大萧条时期是货币战争的经典案例，1929年至1936年间有超过70个国家使其货币相对于黄金贬值。那么，这场货币战争对贸易流动产生了怎样的影响？我们利用新编的高频双边贸易数据和引力模型，结合贸易伙伴是否以及何时贬值，来识别货币战争对全球贸易的影响。我们的实证估计显示，一个国家在贬值后，其贸易减少了超过21%。这一具有统计显著性的贸易下降表明，货币战争破坏了全球货币标准所带来的贸易促进效应，终结了货币体系的协调性并增加了贸易成本。

从危机到常态：各行业、职业和地域的远程办公趋势与员工参与度

Christos A. Makridis and Jason Schloetzer #33315

Abstract: We use a survey of nearly 360,000 workers conducted from May 2020 through December 2023 to characterize shifts in remote work across time, industry, occupation, and geography, and examine the evolving relationship between remote work and employee engagement. We find remarkable stability in the incidence of remote work since mid-2021 with roughly one-half of workers reporting always working remotely or in a hybrid arrangement. While remote work arrangements across industries remain broad-based, at the occupation level, they are conspicuously concentrated in certain job classifications. Remote work continues to evolve across the U.S., with 13 (14) states experiencing reported increases (decreases) in remote work rates since 2022 with the most populous states experiencing remote working rates exceeding 40% of workers. Empirical evidence shows that while working remotely correlates with higher job satisfaction and lower intentions to quit, these correlations disappear when other workplace characteristics such as pay practices, human resources policies, and managerial relationships are considered. If remote work remains the norm, our results suggest it may not directly influence employee engagement—the workplace still matters.

摘要：我们利用2020年5月至2023年12月间对近36万名员工的调查数据，分析远程办公在时间、行业、职业和地域维度上的变化，并研究远程办公与员工参与度之间不断演变的关系。研究发现，自2021年中以来，远程办公的普及程度表现出显著的稳定性，约有一半的员工报告称始终以远程或混合模式工作。尽管远程办公在各行业间普遍存在，但在职业层面则明显集中于某些特定职位类别。远程办公在美国各州的趋势仍在发展，自2022年以来，有13个州报告远程办公比例上升，14个州报告下降，其中人口最多的州远程办公比例超过40%。实证研究显示，远程办公与更高的工作满意度和更低的离职意图相关，但当考虑其他工作场所特征（如薪酬制度、人力资源政策和管理关系）时，这些相关性不再显著。如果远程办公继续成为常态，研究结果表明，它可能不会直接影响员工参与度——工作场所的其他因素仍然重要。

银行业的利率风险

Peter M. DeMarzo, Arvind Krishnamurthy, and Stefan Nagel #33308

Abstract: We develop a framework to estimate bank franchise value. Contrary to existing models, sticky deposits and low deposit rate betas do not imply negative duration. While operating costs could generate negative duration, they are offset by fixed interest rate spreads from lending activity. Consequently, franchise value declines as interest rates rise, further exacerbating losses on banks’ securities holdings. Banks with less responsive deposit rates tend to invest more in long-term securities, aiming to hedge cash flows rather than market value. Despite significant recent rate hike losses, most U.S. banks still retain sufficient franchise value to remain solvent, justifying forbearance.

摘要：我们提出了一个框架来估算银行的特许经营价值。与现有模型不同，粘性存款和低存款利率贝塔值并不意味着负久期。尽管运营成本可能导致负久期，但这被来自贷款活动的固定利差所抵消。因此，随着利率上升，特许经营价值下降，这进一步加剧了银行证券持有的损失。存款利率响应较慢的银行往往更多地投资于长期证券，目的是对现金流进行对冲，而非市场价值。尽管近期的加息带来了显著损失，但大多数美国银行仍保留了足够的特许经营价值以维持偿付能力，从而为监管宽容提供了合理性。

线下上学与青少年暴力

Benjamin Hansen, Kyutaro Matsuzawa, and Joseph J. Sabia #33317

Abstract: While investments in schooling generate large private and external returns, negative peer interactions in school may generate substantial social costs. Using data from four national sources (Uniform Crime Reports, National Incident-Based Reporting System, National Crime Victimization Survey, National Electronic Injury Surveillance System) and a variety of identification strategies, this study comprehensively explores the effect of in-person schooling on contemporaneous juvenile violence. Using a proxy for in-person schooling generated from anonymized smartphone data and leveraging county-level variation in school calendars — including unique, large, localized changes to in-person instruction during the COVID-19 pandemic — we find that in-person schooling is associated with a 28 percent increase in juvenile violent crime. A null finding for young adults is consistent with a causal interpretation of this result. The effects are largest in larger schools and in jurisdictions with weaker anti-bullying policies, consistent with both concentration effects and a peer quality channel. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that relative to closed K-12 schools, in-person schooling generates $233 million in monthly violent crime costs.

摘要：尽管对教育的投资能够带来巨大的个人和外部收益，但学校中的负面同伴互动可能会带来显著的社会成本。本文利用来自四个国家数据源（《统一犯罪报告》《基于事件的国家犯罪报告系统》《国家犯罪受害者调查》《国家电子伤害监测系统》）的数据和多种识别策略，全面探讨了线下上学对青少年暴力行为的即时影响。通过匿名智能手机数据生成的线下上学代理变量，并利用县级学校日历的差异（包括新冠疫情期间线下教学的独特、大规模、局部变化），研究发现，线下上学与青少年暴力犯罪增加28%相关。针对年轻成年人的无显著影响结果进一步支持了该结论的因果解释。这一效应在规模较大的学校和反欺凌政策较弱的地区最为明显，与集中效应和同伴质量渠道的解释一致。根据粗略估算，与K-12学校关闭相比，线下上学每月产生2.33亿美元的暴力犯罪成本。

往期精选：

      重磅：学术财经•学术笔记全汇总

重磅：学术财经全球价值链专题学术笔记大汇总（附下载链接失效学术笔记推文）

重磅| 基金申请内部学习和交流

【学术笔记·第37篇】风险和全球供应链：我们知道什么和我们需要知道什么

【学术笔记·第36篇】各有所长：全球供应链风险敞口（Exposure）测度

【学术笔记·第35篇】日本生产者价格指数理论与实证：最终需求-中间需求加总系统

【学术笔记·第34篇】北美自由贸易的贸易和福利影响估计

【学术笔记 第33篇】 英属印度时期铁路：交通基础设施的影响评估（AER）

【学术笔记 第32篇】 技术、地理和贸易(经典EK模型）

【学术笔记 第31篇】2018年贸易战对美国物价和福利的影响

【学术笔记 第30篇】全球价值链和国家部门层面实际有效汇率