编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（12.23-12.29）共发布 40 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送最后 13 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
带薪家庭假期的收益与成本
Buyi Wang, Meredith Slopen, Irwin Garfinkel, Elizabeth Ananat, Sophie M. Collyer, Robert Paul Hartley, Anastasia Koutavas, and Christopher Wimer #33279
Abstract: National paid family leave programs have been repeatedly proposed in the United States in recent years. To inform policy discussions, we provide a benefit-cost analysis of introducing such a program. We systematically identify high-quality, quasi-experimental studies on the impact of paid leave on infants and parents. Using the most conservative estimates or the mean estimates from this literature, we estimate that every $1,000 investment in paid parental leave would generate, respectively, $7,275 or $29,406 in present discounted net social benefits. We use these estimates to conduct a microsimulation of benefits and costs of two policy proposals with different eligibility and wage replacement rates. The first, a 4-week program, would have an initial fiscal cost of under $2 billion and net social benefits of $13 (conservative) or $55 billion (mean). The corresponding figures for the 12-week program are about 3.7 times larger, suggesting that either version would likely generate high returns.
摘要：近年来，美国多次提出实施全国性带薪家庭假期计划的提案。为支持政策讨论，我们对引入此类计划的收益与成本进行了分析。我们系统地识别了关于带薪假期对婴儿和父母影响的高质量准实验研究。根据该领域文献中的最保守估计或平均估计，我们测算得出，每投入1,000美元的带薪育儿假，分别可带来7,275美元或29,406美元的现值净社会收益。基于这些估算，我们对两项具有不同资格要求和工资替代率的政策提案的收益与成本进行了微观模拟。第一个提案为4周的计划，其初始财政成本低于20亿美元，净社会收益分别为130亿美元（保守估计）或550亿美元（平均估计）。而12周计划的相应数据大约是4周计划的3.7倍，这表明无论选择哪个版本，该计划都可能产生高额回报。
具有时间变化敞口的工具变量：血运重建对生活质量影响的新估计
Joshua Angrist, Bruno Ferman, Carol Gao, Peter Hull, Otavio L. Tecchio, and Robert W. Yeh #33296
Abstract: The ISCHEMIA Trial randomly assigned patients with ischemic heart disease to an invasive treatment strategy centered on revascularization with a control group assigned non-invasive medical therapy. As is common in such “strategy trials,” many participants assigned to treatment remained untreated while many assigned to control crossed over into treatment. Intention-to-treat (ITT) analyses of strategy trials preserve randomization-based comparisons, but ITT effects are diluted by non-compliance. Conventional per-protocol analyses that condition on treatment received are likely biased by discarding random assignment. In trials where compliance choices are made shortly after assignment, instrumental variables (IV) methods solve both problems—recovering an undiluted average causal effect of treatment for treated subjects who comply with trial protocol. In ISCHEMIA, however, some controls were revascularized as long as five years after random assignment. This paper extends the IV framework for strategy trials, allowing for such dynamic non-random compliance behavior. IV estimates of long-run revascularization effects on quality of life are markedly larger than previously reported ITT and per-protocol estimates. We also show how to estimate complier characteristics in a dynamic-treatment setting. These estimates reveal increasing selection bias in naive time-varying per-protocol estimates of revascularization effects. Compliers have baseline health similar to that of the study population, while control-group crossovers are far sicker.
摘要：ISCHEMIA试验随机将患有缺血性心脏病的患者分配到以血运重建为中心的侵入性处理策略组和接受非侵入性药物处理的对照组。这类“策略试验”中常见的情况是，许多被分配到处理组的参与者未接受处理，而许多被分配到对照组的参与者则转而接受了处理。策略试验的意向处理分析（ITT）保留了基于随机分配的比较，但由于不依从性（non-compliance），ITT效应被稀释。传统的按方案分析（per-protocol analysis）基于实际接受的治处理情况，容易因丢弃随机分配信息而产生偏差。在依从性选择在随机分配后不久完成的试验中，工具变量（IV）方法可以解决这两个问题——恢复符合试验协议的受试者的未稀释平均因果效应。然而，在ISCHEMIA试验中，一些对照组患者在随机分配后长达五年后才接受血运重建。本文扩展了适用于策略试验的工具变量框架，允许动态的非随机依从行为。对长期血运重建对生活质量影响的IV估计明显高于此前报道的ITT和按方案估计。此外，我们还展示了如何在动态处理环境中估计依从者（compliers）的特征。这些估计揭示了随着时间变化的幼稚的按方案估计中日益增加的选择偏差。依从者的基准健康状况与研究总体相似，而对照组中转向处理的患者健康状况显著更差。
适应气候变化
Tamma Carleton, Esther Duflo, Kelsey Jack, and Guglielmo Zappalà #33264
Abstract: Mounting costs of anthropogenic climate change reveal that adaptation will be essential to human well-being in coming decades. At the same time, the literature on the economics of adaptation offers relatively little guidance for emerging policy. In this chapter, we review the existing literature, focusing on how it can better inform adaptation policy design and implementation. A simple conceptual model of adaptation decision-making describes two core adaptation channels that we link to two streams of adaptation literature, which have emerged largely in parallel. We outline how insights from these literatures can be used for adaptation policy evaluation, highlight key limitations of and opportunities for public intervention in private adaptation markets, and provide guidance for future work.
摘要：人类活动引发的气候变化所带来的成本日益增加，这表明在未来几十年中，适应将对人类福祉至关重要。然而，关于适应经济学的文献对新兴政策的指导相对有限。在本章中，我们回顾了现有文献，重点探讨如何更好地为适应政策的设计和实施提供信息。我们提出了一个简单的适应决策概念模型，描述了两个核心适应途径，并将其与两类几乎是独立发展的适应文献相联系。我们概述了这些文献中的洞见如何被用于评估适应政策，指出了私人适应市场中公共干预的关键局限性和潜在机会，并为未来的研究工作提供了指导建议。
转型风险：来源与政策应对
Stefano Carattini, Garth Heutel, Givi Melkadze, and Inès Mourelon #33275
Abstract: Transition risk – the financial stability risk related with decarbonization – is a major source of concern. The literature has so far only studied transition risk caused by carbon tax shocks. This paper explores other potential sources of transition risk: two other policy sources – subsidies to abatement or to green producers – and two preference-based sources – a shock to consumer preferences and a shock to investor preferences. We develop an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes a frictional financial sector, and we consider macroprudential policy responses to transition risks. These different shocks have different effects on the possibility of transition risk and lead to different macroprudential policy implications.
摘要：转型风险——与脱碳相关的金融稳定风险——是一个主要关注点。目前的文献仅研究了由碳税冲击引发的转型风险。本文探讨了其他潜在的转型风险来源：两个政策来源——减排补贴或对绿色生产者的补贴，以及两个基于偏好的来源——消费者偏好冲击和投资者偏好冲击。我们构建了一个包含摩擦性金融部门的环境动态随机一般均衡模型（DSGE），并研究了应对转型风险的宏观审慎政策措施。这些不同的冲击对转型风险的可能性有不同的影响，并导致了不同的宏观审慎政策含义。
空间关联与商品繁荣的分布不均效应
Felipe Benguria, Felipe Saffie, and Shihangyin Zhang #33287
Abstract: We study the uneven effects of a commodity boom, documenting its impact across workers based on their skill and on the region where they live. To this end, we develop a dynamic quantitative model of an economy with many regions connected through interregional trade and migration. Empirically, we focus on the experience of Brazil during the commodity boom of the 2000s and calibrate the model using detailed micro-level data. At the aggregate level, the boom leads to a decline in the skill premium, resulting from a larger increase in the real wages of unskilled than skilled workers. The model indicates that the commodity boom accounts for a quarter of the decline in the skill premium observed during this period, and masks substantial heterogeneity across states and sectors. Finally, using the model to simulate counterfactuals, we show that spatial linkages—interregional migration and interregional trade—play an important role in shaping the impact of the boom. Spatial linkages reduce the decline in the skill premium at the national level, and also reduce the extent of spatial inequality due to the boom.
摘要：我们研究了商品繁荣的不均匀效应，记录了其对不同技能水平工人以及不同地区工人的影响。为此，我们构建了一个动态定量模型，描述了一个由跨区域贸易和迁移连接的多地区经济。实证分析中，我们重点研究了2000年代巴西的商品繁荣经验，并使用详细的微观数据对模型进行校准。从总体层面来看，商品繁荣导致技能溢价的下降，这是由于无技能工人的实际工资增幅大于技能工人。模型显示，商品繁荣解释了该时期技能溢价下降的四分之一，并掩盖了各州和各行业之间的显著异质性。最后，通过模型进行反事实模拟，我们发现空间关联（跨区域迁移和跨区域贸易）在塑造商品繁荣的影响中起到了重要作用。空间关联减少了全国层面技能溢价的下降幅度，同时也减轻了商品繁荣导致的空间不平等程度。
在政府与市场之间：工会的政治经济学
Ethan Kaplan and Suresh Naidu #33295
Abstract: We survey and summarize recent literature on labor unions in political economy. While labor unions have been a long-standing subject of study in labor and macroeconomics, until recently they have been less studied by political economists, despite being important political actors in many policy-relevant contexts. We first organize the literature into work on the external influence of unions on the political system, including effects on voting, campaign finance, lobbying, and intraparty bargaining. We then discuss work on the internal politics and organization of unions, including issues of selection and representation, union aggregation of preferences. We pay special attention to the economic and political effects of public sector unions. We also discuss union behavior in weakly institutionalized contexts, where crime, corruption, rent-seeking, political strikes, and violence are all issues. We conclude with directions for future work.
摘要：我们梳理并总结了近期关于工会的政治经济学文献。尽管工会长期以来一直是劳动经济学和宏观经济学研究的主题，但直到最近，它们在政治经济学领域的研究较少，尽管工会在许多与政策相关的情境中是重要的政治行为者。首先，我们将文献分为关于工会对政治系统外部影响的研究，包括其对投票、竞选资金、游说以及党内谈判的影响。接着，我们讨论了关于工会内部政治与组织的研究，包括选择与代表性问题以及工会对偏好的聚合。我们特别关注公共部门工会的经济和政治影响。此外，我们还讨论了工会在制度化程度较低的环境中的行为，例如在犯罪、腐败、寻租、政治罢工和暴力等问题上的表现。最后，我们提出了未来研究的方向。
社交网络中的扩散：信息共享与说服的实验证据
Marcel Fafchamps, Asadul Islam, Debayan Pakrashi, and Denni Tommasi #33285
Abstract: We conduct a clustered randomized controlled trial across 180 villages in Uttar Pradesh, India, to promote the take-up of a savings commitment product newly introduced to our study population. A random subset of participants was targeted through our promotional campaign to test whether the product's diffusion among untargeted participants operates primarily through information sharing or through persuasion by incentivized target participants. If social learning is the main channel of diffusion, we would expect higher sign-up and take-up rates in information villages compared to persuasion villages. Conversely, if persuasion is the primary channel, sign-up and take-up rates should be higher in persuasion villages. Our findings consistently favor the persuasion channel, as sign-up and take-up rates were higher in the persuasion treatment, even without increased financial literacy or knowledge about the product. Information alone had a negligible impact on take-up, while the combined treatment achieved the highest sign-up and conversion rates, suggesting that information complements persuasion by enhancing its effectiveness. These results highlight the importance of incentivized persuasion in promoting product take-up and suggest that, in certain contexts, direct information-sharing may be less effective than previously assumed.
摘要：我们在印度北方邦的180个村庄中进行了一项集群随机对照试验，旨在促进研究人群对一项新推出的储蓄承诺产品的接受度。我们通过宣传活动随机选取了一部分参与者，以测试该产品在未被直接宣传的参与者中传播的主要机制是通过信息共享还是通过被激励的目标参与者进行说服。如果社会学习是扩散的主要渠道，我们预计信息村（信息共享组）的注册率和接受率会高于说服村（说服组）。相反，如果说服是主要渠道，那么说服村的注册率和接受率应该更高。我们的研究结果一致支持说服渠道，因为即使在没有提升金融知识或产品认知的情况下，说服组的注册率和接受率仍然更高。而仅靠信息的影响对接受率的作用微乎其微。相比之下，信息与说服相结合的处理方式达到了最高的注册率和转化率，这表明信息能够通过增强说服的有效性来起到补充作用。这些结果突出了被激励的说服在促进产品接受中的重要性，同时表明在某些情况下，单纯的信息共享可能比先前假设的效果要低。
小农户获得数字信贷：来自加纳的实验证据
Dean Karlan, Monica P. Lambon-Quayefio, Utsav Manjeer, and Christopher R. Udry #33271
Abstract: Digital finance in agriculture is a nascent technology which could help improve rural financial inclusion. In an experimental evaluation of a digital lending product for farmers in Southern Ghana, credit increases farm investments but has few statistically significant average effects on downstream outcomes. However, logistical challenges generated imperfect compliance with the treatment assignment, with some loans delivered in a timely fashion for agricultural investments and others coming later. We cautiously exploit this unplanned non-experimental implementation heterogeneity and conclude that agriculturally-focused digital credit platforms have potential to tackle persistent rural financial market imperfections, but the timing seems critical and deserves further study.
摘要：农业中的数字金融是一项新兴技术，可能有助于改善农村的金融包容性。在对加纳南部农民的一项数字贷款产品进行的实验评估中，信贷增加了农业投资，但对下游结果的平均影响很少达到统计显著性。然而，由于物流挑战导致对处理分配的执行不完全，一些贷款在农业投资的关键时期及时发放，而另一些则延迟发放。我们谨慎地利用了这种非计划性的非实验性执行异质性，得出结论：专注于农业的数字信贷平台具有解决农村金融市场长期存在的不完善问题的潜力，但贷款的发放时机至关重要，需要进一步研究。
突发性资本流动中断期间的企业融资：政府能否替代市场？
Miguel Acosta-Henao, Andrés Fernández, Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez, and Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan #33283
Abstract: Using comprehensive administrative data on Chilean firms, we examine whether credit lines and government-backed credit guarantees mitigated the impact of the large sudden stop event during the pandemic—the abrupt withdrawal of international capital. Our analysis employs a regression discontinuity design to demonstrate that firms eligible for these programs increased their borrowing from domestic lenders at a relatively lower cost. By reducing the cost of domestic currency debt relative to foreign currency debt, these policies effectively lowered the relative cost of domestic capital in the short term. This reduction in borrowing costs is conditional on selection effects at both the firm and bank levels, where only policy-eligible firms benefit from the lower credit costs from the same lender that non-eligible firms also borrow from. An open economy model with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions helps explain our findings: government interventions eased the higher cost of capital during the sudden stop by relaxing firms’ domestic collateral constraints, which in turn reduced domestic financial intermediaries’ risk aversion and boosted the supply of domestic credit in the face of shrinking international capital flows.
摘要：利用关于智利企业的全面行政数据，我们研究了信用额度和政府支持的信贷担保是否减轻了疫情期间突发性资本流动中断（国际资本突然撤离）事件的影响。我们的分析采用断点回归设计（RDD），表明符合这些政策条件的企业以相对较低的成本从国内贷款机构增加了借款。通过降低本币债务相对于外币债务的成本，这些政策在短期内有效降低了国内资本的相对成本。借贷成本的下降是基于企业和银行层面的选择效应的结果，只有符合政策条件的企业才能从同一家贷款机构中享受较低的信贷成本，而不符合条件的企业也从该机构借贷。我们还构建了一个具有异质性企业和金融摩擦的开放经济模型来解释我们的发现：政府干预通过放松企业的国内抵押品约束，缓解了突发性资本流动中断期间较高的资本成本。这反过来降低了国内金融中介的风险厌恶，增加了在国际资本流动减少情况下的国内信贷供给。
集体谈判、工会与工资结构：国际视角
Simon Jäger, Suresh Naidu, and Benjamin Schoefer #33267
Abstract: In this paper, we assess the recent economics literature on collective bargaining. Despite a declining trend in the OECD in coverage and especially union membership, a large share of formal workers around the world are still covered by collective bargaining agreements. We describe the substantial institutional variation across a variety of countries, highlighting research done with modern research designs and recently available administrative datasets. We then estimate a canonical empirical model of individual-level coverage effects and selection in harmonized cross-country data across 18 advanced economies (in Europe and North America). We estimate collective bargaining coverage premia, compression, selection, and spillover coefficients in each country, and use these to document considerable heterogeneity in collective bargaining coverage effects on the wage structure. While there is a strong negative relationship between collective bargaining coverage and wage inequality across countries, substantial uncertainties remain about the underlying mechanisms. Coverage effects may operate through direct premia, selection, or spillovers onto non-covered wages, but distinguishing and quantifying these channels and how they vary across institutional contexts remains a key challenge for future research. In our data, we find that the direct effect of coverage on wages of covered workers does not explain much of the cross-country correlation between coverage and inequality. While compelling research designs often result from specific institutional variation, we also emphasize that these contextual details must be accounted for when comparing estimates across industrial relations systems. A particularly pressing need is for more compelling causal evidence on spillover effects, which could help reconcile conflicting micro and macro evidence on how collective bargaining shapes the wage distribution.
摘要：在本文中，我们评估了近年来关于集体谈判的经济学文献。尽管在经合组织（OECD）国家中，集体谈判覆盖率，尤其是工会会员数量呈下降趋势，但全球范围内仍有大量正式工人受到集体谈判协议的覆盖。我们描述了不同国家之间显著的制度差异，并重点介绍了利用现代研究设计和新近可用的行政数据集完成的研究。随后，我们基于跨18个发达经济体（欧洲和北美）的统一跨国数据，估计了一个经典的个体层面覆盖效应和选择的实证模型。我们在每个国家估算了集体谈判的覆盖溢价、工资压缩、选择效应以及外溢效应系数，并据此记录了集体谈判覆盖对工资结构影响的显著异质性。尽管在跨国比较中，集体谈判覆盖率与工资不平等之间存在显著的负相关关系，但对于其背后的机制仍存在相当大的不确定性。覆盖效应可能通过直接溢价、选择效应或对未覆盖工资的外溢效应来发挥作用，但要区分和量化这些渠道，以及它们在不同制度背景下的变化，仍是未来研究的关键挑战。在我们的数据中，我们发现覆盖对已覆盖工人工资的直接影响无法很好地解释覆盖率与不平等之间的跨国相关性。虽然有说服力的研究设计通常基于具体的制度差异，但我们也强调，在比较不同工业关系体系的估计结果时，必须考虑这些背景细节。一项尤为迫切的需求是提供更多关于外溢效应的有力因果证据，这将有助于调和关于集体谈判如何塑造工资分配的微观与宏观证据之间的矛盾观点。
从竞争者到合作伙伴：银行对金融科技的风险投资
Manju Puri, Yiming Qian, and Xiang Zheng #33297
Abstract: We hypothesize and find evidence that banks use venture investments in fintech startups as a strategic approach to navigate fintech competition. We show that banks’ venture investments have increasingly focused on fintech firms in systematic ways. We find that banks facing greater fintech competition are more likely to make venture investments in fintech startups. Banks target fintech firms that exhibit higher levels of asset complementarities with their own business. Finally, instrumental variable analyses show that venture investments increase the likelihood of operational collaborations and knowledge transfer between the bank investor and the fintech investee.
摘要：我们提出并发现证据表明，银行将对金融科技初创公司的风险投资作为应对金融科技竞争的一种战略手段。研究表明，银行的风险投资正以系统性的方式日益集中于金融科技公司。我们发现，面临更大金融科技竞争的银行更有可能对金融科技初创公司进行风险投资。银行倾向于选择那些与自身业务具有更高资产互补性的金融科技公司作为投资目标。最后，工具变量分析显示，风险投资提高了银行投资者与金融科技被投资公司之间开展运营合作和知识转移的可能性。
嵌入式文化作为比较优势的来源
Luigi Guiso, Paola Sapienza, and Luigi Zingales #33268
Abstract: This paper examines how the concept of embedded culture played a transformative role in the ongoing cultural revolution within economics and business. We trace the field's shift from the 20th-century concept of homo economicus universalis to an approach incorporating cultural embeddedness in economic behavior. Beyond documenting this intellectual transformation, we identify fertile areas for future research and explore how an embedded cultural perspective can enhance both our understanding of economic phenomena and the design of effective policies.
摘要：本文探讨了嵌入式文化这一概念如何在经济学和商业领域持续的文化变革中发挥了变革性作用。我们回顾了该领域从20世纪普遍经济人（homo economicus universalis）概念向经济行为中融入文化嵌入性的转变过程。在记录这一知识转型的同时，我们还识别了未来研究的潜力领域，并探讨了嵌入式文化视角如何能够提升我们对经济现象的理解以及有效政策的设计。
关于利用反事实定义和估计经济韧性
Mo Alloush and Michael Carter #33290
Abstract: This paper defines the first measure of economic resilience based on the cumulative current and future losses a shock-exposed household experiences relative to a counterfactual measure of what household economic well-being would have been absent the shock. Drawing on the rich economics literature on the sensitivity of household income and consumption to shocks, we derive a resilience metric that can be estimated with panel data using standard impact evaluation methods. To illustrate these methods, we first use simulated data from a dynamic optimization model and a known data generation process. We show how this metric can be used to not only evaluate the impact of different policies on resilience but also to judge the public finance efficacy by showing how the cumulative avoided loss based resilience measure can be used for cost-benefit analysis. We then we illustrate how to use these methods to calculate resilience at the household level and show that reliance on income as a measure of economic well-being may be wiser in the absence of long-term data. Finally, We then use data from a recent experiment in Eastern and Southern Africa to show that these methods can be informative even with relatively short duration data.
摘要：本文基于暴露于冲击的家庭相对于反事实（即在没有冲击情况下家庭经济福祉的水平）的当前和未来累计损失，定义了首个经济韧性的度量方法。借鉴经济学文献中关于家庭收入和消费对冲击敏感性的丰富研究，我们推导出一个可以使用标准影响评估方法和面板数据进行估计的韧性指标。为说明这些方法，我们首先使用动态优化模型和已知数据生成过程的模拟数据进行演示。我们展示了这一指标如何不仅用于评估不同政策对韧性的影响，还可以通过展示基于累计避免损失的韧性度量如何用于成本效益分析，从而评估公共财政的效率。随后，我们演示了如何使用这些方法计算家庭层面的韧性，并指出，在缺乏长期数据的情况下，依赖收入作为经济福祉的衡量标准可能更为明智。最后，我们利用最近在东非和南部非洲进行的一项实验数据表明，即使是相对短期的数据，这些方法也能够提供有意义的信息。
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