在子宫内暴露于阿富汗战争冲突对人力资本的影响

Erkmen G. Aslim, Rafiuddin Najam, and Erdal Tekin #33398

Abstract: This study examines the long-term effects of prenatal exposure to war violence on cognitive and developmental outcomes, focusing on children in Afghanistan, a country deeply affected by prolonged violent conflict. Using data from the 2022 Afghanistan Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys and geo-referenced information on violent incidents, we estimate the effects of prenatal exposure to civilian casualties on educational attainment, math performance, and functional and disciplinary outcomes. Our findings reveal significant gender disparities, with girls exposed in utero demonstrating substantially worse cognitive and developmental outcomes compared to boys, including lower school attendance, reduced math performance, and increased functional difficulties. These adverse effects appear to be driven by disruptions in foundational cognitive skills during critical developmental periods. Post-birth exposure, while negatively affecting both genders, has less pronounced and consistent effects. These results highlight the intergenerational consequences of war conflict, emphasizing the need for interventions that address the unique vulnerabilities of children in conflict-affected regions.

摘要：本研究考察了孕期暴露于战争暴力对认知和发展结果的长期影响，重点关注阿富汗的儿童，阿富汗是一个深受长期暴力冲突影响的国家。通过使用2022年阿富汗多指标集群调查的数据和有关暴力事件的地理信息，我们估计了孕期暴露于平民伤亡对教育成就、数学表现、功能性和纪律性结果的影响。我们的研究发现，存在显著的性别差异，孕期暴露的女孩表现出比男孩更差的认知和发展结果，包括更低的学校出勤率、减少的数学表现和增加的功能性困难。这些不利影响似乎是由于在关键发展时期基础认知技能的中断所导致。尽管出生后的暴露对两性均有负面影响，但其效应较不明显且不一致。这些结果突显了战争冲突的代际后果，强调了需要针对冲突地区儿童独特脆弱性的干预措施。

 实证区分跨界与本地空气污染混合对健康的影响

Jaecheol Lee, Andrew J. Wilson, and Solomon M. Hsiang #33379

Abstract: Particulate matter (PM) is a major, clinically important air pollutant. A large portion of emitted PM crosses borders, damaging health outside of its originating jurisdiction, but due in part to technical obstacles these pollutant flows remain unregulated. Proposed attribution approaches assume that units of PM originating in different jurisdictions cause the same harm, despite a widespread understanding that differing chemical and physical features of PM could generate distinct health effects. We use an atmospheric model to decompose the origins of PM individuals are exposed to at each location in South Korea, the nexus of one of the world's most contentious transboundary air pollution disputes, every day during 2005–2016. We then link these data to universal healthcare records in an econometric analysis that simultaneously measures and accounts for harms from seven types of PM, each from a distinct origin. We discover that the health harm of a unit of transboundary PM is approximately 5× (North Korea) and 2.6× (China) greater than a unit of PM originating within South Korea, and that health responses to PM from natural sources differs from those to anthropogenic sources. Because harms differ by origin, we compute that transboundary sources contribute only 43% of anthropogenic PM exposure in South Korea but generate over 70% of its associated respiratory health costs. Our results suggest that PM should be treated as a mixture of distinct pollutants, each with a unique measurable impact on human health.

摘要：颗粒物（PM）是一个主要的、临床上重要的空气污染物。大量排放的颗粒物跨越边界，危害其来源地区之外的健康，但由于技术障碍，这些污染物流动仍然未受到监管。提出的归因方法假设来自不同管辖区的颗粒物单元造成相同的危害，尽管普遍认识到，颗粒物的化学和物理特征不同，可能会产生不同的健康影响。我们使用大气模型，分解2005年至2016年期间韩国每个地点居民每日暴露的颗粒物的来源，韩国是全球最具争议的跨境空气污染纠纷之一的中心。然后，我们将这些数据与全民医疗记录进行链接，在计量经济学分析中同时衡量并考虑七种不同来源的颗粒物所造成的危害。我们发现，来自跨境的颗粒物对健康的危害大约是来自韩国本土颗粒物的5倍（来自朝鲜）和2.6倍（来自中国），并且来自自然源的颗粒物的健康反应与来自人为源的颗粒物不同。由于危害因来源而异，我们计算出，跨境来源仅占韩国人类活动导致的颗粒物暴露的43%，但却产生了超过70%的相关呼吸健康成本。我们的结果表明，颗粒物应被视为不同污染物的混合物，每种污染物对人类健康有独特的可衡量影响。

在多重渠道存在的情况下理解歧视

Majid Ahmadi, Gwen-Jirō Clochard, Jeff Lachman, and John A. List #33391

Abstract: When multiple forces potentially underlie discriminatory behavior, pinning down the precise sources becomes a challenge, making proposed policy solutions speculative. This study introduces an empirical approach, tightly linked to theory, to dissect two specific channels of discrimination: customer bias and managerial bias. To illustrate our framework, we integrate proprietary data with several publicly available datasets to uncover channels of discrimination within the Major League Baseball draft. Our analysis reveals that customer preferences significantly influence the drafting of players at the top end of the draft—those likely to gain immediate public attention and eventually play for the club. Conversely, we observe managerial homophily in the latter parts of the draft, where players who attract little attention and have minimal chances of playing for the club are selected. The observed preferential bias at both ends of the draft incurs a substantial opportunity cost. However, bias at the top end unduly affects competitiveness. Our findings provide significant implications for future research on measuring discrimination and addressing the challenge of multiple channels.

摘要：当多个因素可能导致歧视行为时，确定其确切来源变得具有挑战性，这使得提出的政策解决方案变得具有推测性。本研究引入了一种与理论紧密相关的实证方法，剖析两种特定的歧视渠道：顾客偏见和管理者偏见。为了说明我们的框架，我们将专有数据与几个公开可用的数据集结合，揭示了美国职业棒球大联盟选秀中的歧视渠道。我们的分析表明，顾客偏好显著影响选秀前端球员的选拔——这些球员可能会立即引起公众关注，并最终为俱乐部效力。相反，我们在选秀后期观察到管理者的同质性倾向，其中一些吸引关注较少、且为俱乐部效力机会最小的球员被选中。选秀两端的偏好性偏见带来了可观的机会成本。然而，选秀前端的偏见不当地影响了竞争力。我们的研究结果为未来在衡量歧视和解决多重渠道挑战方面的研究提供了重要启示。

人口偏好与收入隔离 

Victor Couture, Jonathan I. Dingel, Allison E. Green, and Jessie Handbury #33386

Abstract: We study how preferences over the demographic composition of co-patrons affects income segregation in shared spaces. To distinguish demographic preferences from tastes for other venue attributes, we study venue choices within business chains. We find two notable regularities: preferences for high-income co-patrons are similar across racial groups, and racial homophily does not vary by income. These demographic preferences are economically large, explain much of the cross-group variation in exposure to high-income co-patrons, and correlate with movers' neighborhood choices.

摘要：我们研究了对共同顾客人口构成的偏好如何影响共享空间中的收入隔离。为了区分人口偏好与对其他场地属性的偏好，我们研究了商业连锁中的场地选择。我们发现了两个显著的规律：对高收入共同顾客的偏好在不同种族群体之间相似，种族同质性与收入无关。这些人口偏好在经济上具有重要影响，解释了群体之间高收入共同顾客暴露的差异，并与搬迁者的邻里选择相关联。

劳动力市场中的谈判与不平等

Sydnee Caldwell, Ingrid Haegele, and Jörg Heining #33396

Abstract: We use novel surveys of firms and workers, linked to administrative employer-employee data, to study the prevalence and importance of individual bargaining in wage determination. We show that simple survey questions accurately elicit firms’ bargaining strategies. Using the elicited strategies for 772 German firms, we document that the majority of firms are willing to engage in individual wage bargaining. Labor market factors predict firms’ strategies better than firm characteristics. Survey responses from nearly 10,000 full-time workers indicate that most worker-firm interactions begin with the worker providing their salary expectations. Most interactions end with the worker rejecting the offer and remaining at the incumbent firm. There is substantial heterogeneity in workers’ bargaining behavior, which translates into within-firm wage inequality. Firms that set pay via individual bargaining have a 3 percentage point higher gender wage gap.

摘要：我们使用了新颖的企业和员工调查数据，并将其与行政雇主-员工数据结合，研究了个体谈判在工资确定中的普遍性和重要性。我们表明，简单的调查问题能够准确地引出企业的谈判策略。通过对772家德国企业的谈判策略进行分析，我们发现大多数企业愿意进行个体工资谈判。劳动力市场因素比企业特征更能预测企业的策略。来自近10,000名全职员工的调查反馈表明，大多数员工与企业的互动以员工提供工资期望为开端，最终大多数互动以员工拒绝提供的工资并继续留在现有公司结束。员工的谈判行为存在显著异质性，这导致了公司内部工资不平等。通过个体谈判设定薪酬的公司，其性别工资差距比其他公司高出3个百分点。

消费者和产品数据的离散选择需求模型的最优估计

Paul L. E. Grieco, Charles Murry, Joris Pinkse, and Stephan Sagl #33397

Abstract: We propose a conformant likelihood estimator with exogeneity restrictions (CLEER) for random coefficients discrete choice demand models that is applicable in a broad range of data settings. It combines the likelihoods of two mixed logit estimators—one for consumer level data, and one for product level data—with product level exogeneity restrictions. Our estimator is both efficient and conformant: its rates of convergence will be the fastest possible given the variation available in the data. The researcher does not need to pre-test or adjust the estimator and the inference procedure is valid across a wide variety of scenarios. Moreover, it can be tractably applied to large datasets. We illustrate the features of our estimator by comparing it to alternatives in the literature.

摘要：我们提出了一种具有外生性约束的符合性似然估计（CLEER），用于随机系数离散选择需求模型，适用于广泛的数据设置。它结合了两种混合Logit估计器的似然函数——一种用于消费者层级数据，另一种用于产品层级数据，并加上产品层级的外生性约束。我们的估计器既高效又符合性：它的收敛速度将在数据可用的变异性下达到最快。研究者无需预先测试或调整估计器，推断过程在多种场景下都是有效的。此外，它可以方便地应用于大型数据集。我们通过将其与文献中的其他方法进行比较，展示了该估计器的特点。

是否存在交叉性劳动力市场歧视？

Joanne S. McLaughlin and David Neumark #33388

Abstract: We present new and rich evidence on intersectional discrimination in labor markets, focusing on wages in the traditional residual wage differential approach to discrimination. We interpret “intersectional discrimination” in the framework of interactions, in which discrimination along two intersecting dimensions leads to discrimination that exceeds the sum of its parts. We make three contributions. First, we resolve puzzling contradictory findings on intersectional discrimination in existing research – with studies using similar data and methods reaching diametrically opposite conclusions. Second, we extend the analysis of potential intersectional discrimination to more dimensions than have typically been considered in past research. Third, we explore issues of bias in the wage equations we estimate from selection on employment. Our overall conclusion from these different types of evidence is that there is little or no evidence consistent with intersectional discrimination in wage differentials among the large set of groups (and combinations of groups) we study, and indeed most evidence points in the opposite direction.

摘要：我们提供了关于劳动力市场中交叉性歧视的新颖且丰富的证据，重点分析传统的剩余工资差异方法中的工资歧视。我们在交互作用框架内解读“交叉性歧视”，即沿两个交叉维度的歧视导致的歧视超出了其各部分的总和。我们做出了三项贡献。首先，我们解决了现有研究中关于交叉性歧视的矛盾发现——使用类似数据和方法的研究得出了截然相反的结论。第二，我们将潜在交叉性歧视的分析扩展到比过去研究中通常考虑的更多维度。第三，我们探讨了我们从就业选择中估算的工资方程中的偏见问题。从这些不同类型的证据中得出的总体结论是，在我们研究的大量群体（以及群体的组合）中，几乎没有或没有证据支持交叉性歧视的工资差异，事实上，大多数证据指向相反的方向。

通过流动性提供推动货币发展

Antonio Coppola, Arvind Krishnamurthy, and Chenzi Xu #33390

Abstract: Drawing on the experiences of the historical Eurodollar market and recent Chinese dollar bond issuances traded outside U.S. jurisdiction at negative spreads to Treasurys, we examine the conditions under which a parallel offshore dollar financial system that circumvents Western sanctions may emerge. We propose a model in which currency use is driven by liquidity provision and safe bond supply. We characterize three equilibrium regimes: high convenience yields emerge in both the initial sanctions-driven region and the final liquidity-driven region, separated by an intermediate region. Transitions between equilibria depend on safe-asset supply and liquidity technologies, in addition to endogenous dynamic complementarities.

摘要：借鉴历史上的欧元美元市场和近期在美国法域外以负利差交易的中国美元债券发行经验，我们探讨了在何种条件下，绕过西方制裁的并行离岸美元金融体系可能会出现。我们提出了一个模型，其中货币使用由流动性提供和安全债券供应驱动。我们描述了三种均衡状态：高便利性收益出现在初始的受制裁驱动的区域和最终的流动性驱动的区域，这两者之间由一个过渡区域隔开。均衡之间的过渡不仅取决于安全资产供应和流动性技术，还取决于内生的动态互补性。

空间环境经济学

Clare A. Balboni and Joseph S. Shapiro #33377

Abstract: How do environmental goods and policies shape spatial patterns of economic activity? How will climate change modify these impacts over the coming decades? How do agglomeration, commuting, and other spatial forces and policies affect environmental quality? We distill theoretical and empirical research linking urban, regional, and spatial economics to the environment. We present stylized facts on spatial environmental economics, describe insights from canonical environmental models and spatial models, and discuss the building blocks for papers and the research frontier in enviro-spatial economics. Most enviro-spatial research remains bifurcated into either primarily environmental or spatial papers. Research is only beginning to realize potential insights from more closely combining spatial and environmental approaches.

摘要：环境商品和政策如何塑造经济活动的空间模式？气候变化将在未来几十年如何改变这些影响？集聚效应、通勤以及其他空间力量和政策如何影响环境质量？我们提炼了将城市、区域和空间经济学与环境相结合的理论和实证研究。我们展示了空间环境经济学的典型事实，描述了经典环境模型和空间模型的见解，并讨论了环境空间经济学论文的构建模块和研究前沿。大多数环境空间研究仍然是二分化的，要么主要是环境研究，要么主要是空间研究。研究才刚刚开始意识到通过更紧密地结合空间和环境方法所能带来的潜在见解。

资料来源：https://www.nber.org/papers

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