编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（12.09-12.15）共发布 22 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送最后 7 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
增长与波动：概述
Joseph E. Stiglitz #33218
Abstract: Capitalism since its inception has been marked by large fluctuations. The resulting episodic unemployment has been very costly. This paper provides an overview of alternative theories. Standard models (such as DSGE) have not provided insights into the causes of the fluctuations and the shocks buffeting the economy, which contrary to what they assume, are largely endogenous; they have not provided an understanding of how and why the economy amplifies shocks and makes their effects at times so persistent or how and why there may be oscillatory behavior, rather than a smooth convergence back to some (temporary) equilibrium. Accordingly, they do not give guidance on how to make deep downturns—those that really matter—less frequent, shallower, and less costly. By contrast, there are alternative, new models, often building on older Keynesian foundations, with heterogenous capital goods and heterogeneous agents, interacting with each other in imperfect markets and fragile networks, with endogenous innovation in an ever-evolving economy, with deep uncertainty. These theories, with endogenously driven fluctuations, provide greater insights in the causes and nature of fluctuations, and better policy guidance.
摘要：自资本主义诞生以来，它就一直伴随着大幅波动。由此产生的周期性失业造成了巨大的成本。本文概述了替代性理论。标准模型（如DSGE）未能深入揭示波动的原因以及冲击对经济的影响，这与它们的假设相反，这些冲击主要是内生的；它们未能解释经济如何以及为何放大冲击，使得冲击的效应有时变得如此持久，或者如何以及为何可能出现振荡行为，而不是平滑地恢复到某种（暂时的）均衡。因此，这些模型没有提供关于如何减少深度衰退——那些真正重要的衰退——的频率、深度和成本的指导。相比之下，存在一些替代性的新模型，这些模型通常建立在较早的凯恩斯主义基础上，涉及异质资本品和异质主体，它们在不完善的市场和脆弱的网络中相互作用，在一个不断发展的经济中进行内生性创新，并面临深度的不确定性。这些理论，通过内生驱动的波动，提供了对波动原因和性质的更深入理解，并为政策提供了更好的指导。
在家创业？远程工作灵活性与创业入驻
John M. Barrios, Yael Hochberg, and Hanyi (Livia) Yi #33237
Abstract: We investigate the influence of the growing trend of work-from-home (WFH) on new business formation, with a particular focus on the period surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. At baseline, local new business entry is positively associated with the proportion of occupations amenable to telework in the region. Utilizing the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic and the implementation of stay-at-home mandates as an exogenous shock, we examine the effects of realized flexibility for WFH on entrepreneurial entry. While overall new business registrations increased following pandemic stay-at-home mandates, areas with an occupational mix that has higher potential for telework demonstrate less pronounced growth in new business formation, particularly in regions with lower economic demand factors. Survey evidence highlights how flexibility provided by traditional employment reduces entrepreneurial intent, especially for workers seeking non-pecuniary benefits such as autonomy or flexibility. Consistent with this substitution effect, we observe significant gender disparities, with a notable decline in women-led startups in areas with greater telework potential. Our results suggest a nuanced tension between the attractiveness of flexibility in traditional employment and the autonomy provided by entrepreneurial entry.
摘要：我们研究了日益增长的远程工作（WFH）趋势对新企业创立的影响，特别关注COVID-19大流行期间的情况。在基准情况下，地方新企业的入驻与该地区适合远程工作的职业比例呈正相关。利用COVID-19大流行的到来和居家令的实施作为外生冲击，我们考察了远程工作灵活性对创业进入的影响。尽管大流行后的居家令导致新企业注册整体上有所增加，但那些职业结构中有较高远程工作潜力的地区，新企业创立的增长不如其他地区显著，尤其是在经济需求因素较低的地区。调查证据显示，传统就业提供的灵活性减少了创业意图，特别是对于寻求非金钱性利益（如自主性或灵活性）的工人。与这种替代效应一致，我们观察到显著的性别差异，在远程工作潜力较大的地区，由女性主导的初创企业明显下降。我们的结果表明，传统就业中灵活性的吸引力与创业进入所提供的自主性之间存在微妙的张力。
打破学历天花板：州政府承诺取消学位要求对公众认知和STARs就业机会的影响
Justin Heck, Blair Corcoran de Castillo, Peter Q. Blair, and Papia Debroy #33220
Abstract: In the past two years, 25 states have enacted executive orders and legislation to reduce unnecessary degree requirements for public sector jobs, signaling a shift toward skill-based hiring. This paper examines the impact of these policy commitments on public perceptions, media coverage, and job posting practices in the time following their adoption. Our analysis reveals significant increases in public awareness of skill-based hiring concepts, such as the 'paper ceiling' (i.e., bachelor’s degree analog of the glass ceiling), and a notable decline in bachelor’s degree requirements in state government job postings. We estimate that degree requirements dropped by 2.5 percentage points for each additional year of policy exposure in states with commitments. These findings suggest that state policy commitments have expanded access to government jobs for workers skilled through alternative routes (STARs) other than the bachelor’s degree in keeping with the intended goals of the policies to broaden the talent pool for public sector hiring.
摘要：在过去两年中，25个州通过行政命令和立法减少了公共部门职位的不必要学位要求，标志着向基于技能的招聘转变。本文考察了这些政策承诺对公众认知、媒体报道和职位发布实践的影响。我们的分析显示，公众对基于技能招聘的概念（例如“学历天花板”——即学士学位版的玻璃天花板）有了显著提高的认识，且州政府职位发布中学士学位要求有了显著下降。我们估计，在实施政策的州，学位要求在每增加一年政策实施的时间后，下降了2.5个百分点。研究结果表明，州政府的政策承诺扩展了通过替代途径（STARs，即非学士学位途径）获得技能的工人进入政府工作的机会，符合这些政策旨在扩大公共部门人才库的目标。
最低可行信号：风险投资、社会运动与种族
Matt Marx, Qian Wang, and Emmanuel Yimfor #33227
Abstract: How do venture capital investors react to social movements, including those that relate to historical underrepresentation in funding? We use image and name algorithms combined with clerical review to classify race for 150,000 founders and 30,000 investors. These data allow us to assess the impact of George Floyd’s murder on VC funding of Black entrepreneurs and identify which VCs were most responsive. Although VCs responded swiftly, investment in Black-founded startups reverted to prior levels within two years. This temporary reaction was concentrated among those who had never previously invested in any Black entrepreneur. Moreover, the investors who responded were less likely to invest in more than one Black-founded startup and were less inclined to engage deeply by taking a board seat. Finally, it appears that the best Black entrepreneurs may have anticipated this “token” response, as they did not match with investors who had no experience funding Black startups.
摘要：风险投资者如何对社会运动作出反应，包括那些与历史上资金支持不足相关的运动？我们结合图像和姓名算法与人工审核，对15万个创始人和3万个投资者进行了种族分类。这些数据使我们能够评估乔治·弗洛伊德被杀事件对风险投资资助黑人企业家的影响，并识别出哪些风险投资者反应最为敏感。尽管风险投资者迅速作出反应，但对黑人创办的初创企业的投资在两年内恢复到了之前的水平。这一短暂的反应主要集中在那些以前从未投资过任何黑人企业家的投资者身上。此外，作出反应的投资者往往不太可能投资于多个黑人创办的初创企业，也较少通过担任董事会职务深入参与。最后，最优秀的黑人企业家似乎预见到了这种“象征性”的反应，因为他们没有与那些没有资助黑人初创企业经验的投资者匹配。
使用简单线性规划评估政策特征和新产品
H. Spencer Banzhaf #33225
Abstract: The Random Utility Model (RUM) is a workhorse model for valuing new products or changes in public goods. But RUMs have been faulted along two lines. First, for including idiosyncratic errors that imply unreasonably high values for new alternatives and unrealistic substitution patterns. Second, for involving strong restrictions on functional forms for utility. This paper shows how, instead, starting with a revealed preference framework, one can partially identify nonparametrically the answers to policy questions about discrete alternatives. When the Generalized Axiom of Revealed Preference (GARP) is satisfied, the approach weakly identifies a pure characteristics model. When GARP is violated, it recasts the RUM errors as departures from GARP (critical cost efficiency), to be minimized using a minimum-distance criterion. This perspective provides an alternative avenue for nonparametric identification of discrete choice models. The paper illustrates the approach by estimating bounds on the values of ecological improvements in the Southern Appalachian Mountains using survey data.
摘要：随机效用模型（RUM）是评估新产品或公共物品变化的常用模型。但RUM在两个方面受到了批评。首先，RUM包括了个体误差，这会导致对新替代品的估值过高，并且表现出不现实的替代模式。其次，RUM对效用的函数形式有强烈的限制。本文展示了一种方法，基于揭示偏好的框架，可以非参数化地部分识别关于离散替代品的政策问题的答案。当满足广义揭示偏好公理（GARP）时，这种方法能够弱地识别纯特征模型。当GARP被违反时，本文将RUM的误差视为偏离GARP（即关键成本效率），并通过最小距离标准来最小化这一偏差。这一视角为离散选择模型的非参数识别提供了另一种途径。本文通过使用调查数据估算南阿巴拉契亚山脉生态改善的价值范围来说明这一方。
商业应用作为领先经济指标？
Jose Asturias, Emin Dinlersoz, John C. Haltiwanger, Rebecca J. Hutchinson, and Alyson Plumb #33224
Abstract: How are applications to start new businesses related to aggregate economic activity? This paper explores the properties of three monthly business application series from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics as economic indicators: all business applications, business applications that are relatively likely to turn into new employer businesses (“likely employers”), and the residual series -- business applications that have a relatively low rate of becoming employers (“likely non-employers”). Growth in applications for likely employers significantly leads total nonfarm employment growth and has a strong positive correlation with it. Furthermore, growth in applications for likely employers leads growth in most of the monthly Principal Federal Economic Indicators (PFEIs). Motivated by our findings, we estimate a dynamic factor model (DFM) to forecast nonfarm employment growth over a 12-month period using the PFEIs and the likely employers series. The latter improves the model’s forecast, especially in the years following the turning points of the Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, applications for likely employers are a strong leading indicator of monthly PFEIs and aggregate economic activity, whereas applications for likely non-employers provide early information about changes in increasingly prevalent self-employment activity in the U.S. economy.
摘要：新企业创办申请与整体经济活动之间有什么关系？本文探讨了美国人口普查局商业创办统计中的三类每月商业申请数据作为经济指标的特性：所有商业申请、相对较可能转化为新雇主企业的商业申请（“可能的雇主”），以及剩余系列——相对较少转化为雇主的商业申请（“可能的非雇主”）。我们发现，可能的雇主的申请增长显著领先于非农就业总增长，并与之有强烈的正相关。此外，可能的雇主申请的增长也领先于大多数月度主要联邦经济指标（PFEIs）的增长。基于我们的发现，我们估计了一个动态因子模型（DFM），通过使用PFEIs和可能的雇主系列来预测12个月期间的非农就业增长。后者改善了模型的预测，特别是在大衰退和COVID-19大流行后的转折点年份。总体而言，可能的雇主申请是月度PFEIs和整体经济活动的强领先指标，而可能的非雇主申请则为美国经济中日益盛行的自雇活动变化提供了早期信息。
投资者记忆与偏见信念：来自实地的证据
Zhengyang Jiang, Hongqi Liu, Cameron Peng, and Hongjun Yan #33226
Abstract: We survey a large, representative sample of retail investors in China to elicit their memories of stock market investments and their return expectations. We merge this survey data with administrative transaction data to test a model in which investors selectively recall past experiences to form their beliefs. Our analysis uncovers new facts about investor memory and highlights similarity-based recall as a novel mechanism of belief formation in financial markets. A rising market prompts investors to recall their past experiences more positively, leading to more optimistic forecasts of future returns. Recalled experiences explain a sizable fraction of cross-investor variation in return expectations and dominate actual experiences in their explanatory power. In the transaction data, we confirm that recalled experiences affect investors' trading decisions through a belief channel.
摘要：我们对中国零售投资者进行了大规模的代表性样本调查，了解他们对股市投资的记忆和回报预期。我们将这些调查数据与行政交易数据结合，测试一个模型，在该模型中，投资者通过选择性回忆过去的经历来形成他们的信念。我们的分析揭示了有关投资者记忆的新事实，并强调了基于相似性的回忆作为金融市场中信念形成的新机制。市场上涨促使投资者更积极地回忆过去的经历，从而对未来回报作出更乐观的预测。回忆的经历解释了投资者之间回报预期的很大一部分差异，并在解释能力上超越了实际经历。在交易数据中，我们确认回忆的经历通过信念渠道影响投资者的交易决。
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