The Quarterly Journal of Economics is the oldest professional journal of economics in the English language. Edited at Harvard University's Department of Economics, it covers all aspects of the field.
QJE is invaluable to professional and academic economists and students around the world.
《经济学季刊（QJE）》是英语中历史最悠久的专业经济学期刊。它由哈佛大学经济系编辑，涵盖了该领域的方方面面。QJE 对世界各地的专业和学术经济学家和学生来说都是无价的，是世界上历史最悠久且最具影响力的经济学期刊之一，与AER、JPE、RES、Econometrica合称经济学“五大刊”，点击文末“阅读原文”可跳转QJE期刊官网。
注：中文摘要为机翻内容，未完全校对。
文章目录
1.Trust at Scale: The Economic Limits of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains
规模化的信任：加密货币和区块链的经济限制
Eric Budish2.A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution
不同收入分布下的税务审计福利分析
William C Boning, Nathaniel Hendren, Ben Sprung-Keyser, Ellen Stuart3.Measuring and Mitigating Racial Disparities in Tax Audits
衡量和缓解税务审计中的种族差异
Hadi Elzayn, Evelyn Smith, Thomas Hertz, Cameron Guage, Arun Ramesh, Robin Fisher, Daniel E Ho, Jacob Goldin4.The Global Race for Talent: Brain Drain, Knowledge Transfer, and Growth
全球人才竞争：人才流失、知识转移与增长
Marta Prato5. Reserves Were Not So Ample After All
储备其实并不充裕
Adam Copeland, Darrell Duffie, Yilin (David) Yang6. LinkedOut? A Field Experiment on Discrimination in Job Network Formation
LinkedOut？一项关于工作网络形成中的歧视的实地实验
Yulia Evsyukova, Felix Rusche, Wladislaw Mill7.Overinference from Weak Signals and Underinference from Strong Signals
对弱信号的过度推断与对强信号的推断不足
Ned Augenblick, Eben Lazarus, Michael Thaler8.Believed Gender Differences in Social Preferences
社会偏好中的性别差异印象
Christine L Exley, Oliver P Hauser, Molly Moore, John-Henry Pezzuto9.The Long-Run Impacts of Public Industrial Investment on Local Development and Economic Mobility: Evidence from World War II
公共工业投资对地方发展和经济流动的长期影响：来自第二次世界大战的证据
Andrew Garin, Jonathan Rothbaum10. War Reparations, Structural Change, and Intergenerational Mobility
战争赔款、结构变化与代际流动
Matti Mitrunen11.Mandatory Notice of Layoff, Job Search, and Efficiency
强制性裁员通知、求职与效率
Jonas Cederlöf, Peter Fredriksson, Arash Nekoei, David Seim12.Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive?
财务担忧会使工人生产力下降吗？
Supreet Kaur, Sendhil Mullainathan, Suanna Oh, Frank Schilbach13.Present Bias Amplifies the Household Balance-Sheet Channels of Macroeconomic Policy
现时偏差放大了宏观经济政策的家庭资产负债表渠道
Peter Maxted, David Laibson, Benjamin Moll14.A Cognitive View of Policing
对警务工作的认知视角
Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, Anuj K Shah15.Costs of Financing U.S. Federal Debt Under a Gold Standard: 1791-1933
金本位下美国联邦债务融资成本：1791-1933
Jonathan Payne, Bálint Szőke, George Hall, Thomas J Sargent
文章摘要
Trust at Scale: The Economic Limits of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains
规模化的信任：加密货币和区块链的经济限制
Eric Budish
Satoshi Nakamoto (2008) invented a new kind of economic system that does not need the support of government or rule of law. Trust and security instead arise from a combination of cryptography and economic incentives, all in a completely anonymous and decentralized system. This article shows that Nakamoto’s novel form of trust, while undeniably ingenious, is deeply economically limited. The core argument is three equations. A zero-profit condition on the quantity of honest blockchain “trust support” (work, stake, etc.) and an incentive-compatibility condition on the system’s security against majority attack (the Achilles heel of all forms of permissionless consensus) together imply an equilibrium constraint, which says that the “flow” cost of blockchain trust has to be large at all times relative to the benefits of attacking the system. This is extremely expensive relative to traditional forms of trust and scales linearly with the value of attack. In scenarios that represent Nakamoto trust becoming a more significant part of the global financial system, the cost of trust would exceed global GDP. Nakamoto trust would become more attractive if an attacker lost the stock value of their capital in addition to paying the flow cost of attack, but this requires either collapse of the system (hardly reassuring) or external support from rule of law. The key difference between Nakamoto trust and traditional trust grounded in rule of law and complementary sources, such as reputations, relationships, and collateral, is economies of scale: society or a firm pays a fixed cost to enjoy trust over a large quantity of economic activity at low or zero marginal cost.
中本聪（2008）发明了一种新型的经济体系，该体系无需政府支持或法律规范。信任和安全来源于密码学和经济激励的结合，整个系统完全匿名且去中心化。本文表明，中本聪这种创新的信任形式虽然极具巧妙性，但存在深刻的经济限制。核心论点是三个方程。诚实区块链“信任支持”（工作量、权益等）的数量零利润条件以及系统抵御多数攻击（所有无需许可共识形式的阿喀琉斯之踵）的激励相容性条件，共同意味着一个均衡约束，即区块链信任的“流量”成本必须始终远大于攻击系统的收益。与传统信任形式相比，这极其昂贵，并且与攻击价值呈线性增长。在代表性“中本聪信任”成为全球金融体系更重要组成部分的情境中，信任成本将超过全球GDP。如果攻击者在支付攻击流量成本的同时，还损失其资本的存量价值，“中本聪信任”将更具吸引力，但这需要系统崩溃（这很难令人放心）或法律规范的外部支持。“中本聪信任”与基于法律规范和补充来源（如声誉、关系和抵押品）的传统信任的关键区别在于规模经济：社会或企业支付固定成本，以在大量经济活动中享受低成本或零边际成本的信任。
A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution
不同收入分布下的税务审计福利分析
William C Boning, Nathaniel Hendren, Ben Sprung-Keyser, Ellen Stuart
We estimate the returns to IRS audits of taxpayers across the income distribution. We find an additional 1 spent auditing taxpayers above the 90th income percentile yields more than 12 in revenue, while audits of below-median income taxpayers yield 5. We construct our estimates by drawing from comprehensive internal accounting information and audit-level enforcement logs. We begin by estimating the average initial return to all audits of U.S. taxpayers filing in tax years 2010–2014. On average, 1 in audit spending initially raises 2.17 in revenue. Audits of high-income taxpayers are more costly, but the additional revenue raised more than offsets the costs. Audits of the 99–99.9th percentile have a 3.2:1 initial return; audits of the top 0.1% return 6.3:1. We then exploit the 40% audit reduction between tax years 2010 and 2014 to examine the returns to marginal audits. We find they exceed the returns to average audits. Revenues remain relatively unchanged, but marginal costs fall below average costs due to economies of scale. Next, we use randomly selected audits to examine the effect of an initial audit on future revenue. This individual deterrence effect produces at least three times more revenue than the initial audit. Deterrence effects are relatively consistent across the income distribution. This results in the 12:1 return above the 90th percentile. We conclude by estimating the welfare consequences of audits using the MVPF framework and comparing audits to other revenue-raising policies. We find that audits raise revenue at lower welfare cost.
我们估计了美国国税局对不同收入分布纳税人的审计回报。我们发现，对收入排名前10%的纳税人每增加1美元的审计支出，可产生超过12美元的收入，而对收入中位数以下纳税人的审计仅产生5美元的收入。我们通过综合内部会计信息和审计级别的执法记录来构建估计。我们首先估计了2010 - 2014年纳税年度美国纳税人所有审计的平均初始回报。平均而言，每1美元的审计支出最初可增加2.17美元的收入。高收入纳税人的审计成本更高，但额外增加的收入超过了成本。对99 - 99.9百分位数纳税人的审计初始回报为3.2:1；对前0.1%纳税人的审计回报为6.3:1。然后，我们利用2010 - 2014年纳税年度审计量减少40%的情况，来考察边际审计的回报。我们发现边际审计的回报超过了平均审计的回报。收入相对保持不变，但由于规模经济，边际成本低于平均成本。接下来，我们使用随机选择的审计来考察初次审计对未来收入的影响。这种个体威慑效应产生的收入至少是初次审计的三倍。威慑效应在收入分布中相对一致。这导致了前10%纳税人的12:1回报。最后，我们使用MVPF框架估计审计的福利后果，并将审计与其他增收政策进行比较。我们发现审计以较低的福利成本增加收入。
Measuring and Mitigating Racial Disparities in Tax Audits
衡量和缓解税务审计中的种族差异
Hadi Elzayn, Evelyn Smith, Thomas Hertz, Cameron Guage, Arun Ramesh, Robin Fisher, Daniel E Ho, Jacob Goldin
Tax authorities around the world rely on audits to detect underreported tax liabilities and to verify that taxpayers qualify for the benefits they claim. We study differences in Internal Revenue Service audit rates between Black and non-Black taxpayers. Because neither we nor the IRS observe taxpayer race, we propose and use a novel partial identification strategy to estimate these differences. Despite race-blind audit selection, we find that Black taxpayers are audited at 2.9 to 4.7 times the rate of non-Black taxpayers. An important driver of the disparity is differing audit rates by race among taxpayers claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). Using counterfactual audit selection models to explore why the disparity arises, we find that maximizing the detection of underreported taxes would not lead to Black EITC claimants being audited at higher rates. Rather, the audit disparity among EITC claimants stems largely from a policy decision to prioritize detecting overclaims of refundable credits over other forms of noncompliance. Modifying the audit selection algorithm to target total underreported taxes while holding fixed the number of audited EITC claimants would reduce the share of audited taxpayers who are Black and would lead to more audits focused on accurate reporting of business income and deductions, fewer audits focused on the eligibility of claimed dependents, higher per audit costs, and more detected noncompliance.
世界各国的税务机关都依赖审计来发现少报的税务责任，并核实纳税人是否有资格获得他们所声称的福利。我们研究了美国国税局对黑人和非黑人纳税人的审计率差异。由于我们和国税局都无法观察到纳税人的种族，我们提出并使用了一种新颖的部分识别策略来估计这些差异。尽管审计选择在种族上是随机的，但我们发现黑人纳税人的审计率是非黑人纳税人的2.9到4.7倍。导致这种差异的一个重要原因是，在申请劳动所得税抵免（EITC）的纳税人中，不同种族的审计率不同。我们使用反事实审计选择模型来探究这种差异产生的原因，发现最大化对少报税款的检测并不会导致黑人EITC申请人的审计率更高。相反，EITC申请者中的审计差异主要源于一项政策决定，即优先检测超额申请可退还税收抵免的情况，而不是其他形式的不合规行为。在保持被审计EITC申请者数量不变的情况下，修改审计选择算法以针对总的少报税款，将减少被审计纳税人中黑人的比例，并导致更多关注准确报告商业收入和扣除的审计，更少关注所声称的受抚养人资格的审计，更高的每次审计成本，以及更多被检测出的不合规行为。
The Global Race for Talent: Brain Drain, Knowledge Transfer, and Growth
全球人才竞争：人才流失、知识转移与增长
Marta Prato
How does inventors’ migration affect international talent allocation, knowledge diffusion, and productivity growth? To answer this question, I build a novel two-country innovation-led endogenous growth model, where heterogeneous inventors produce innovations, learn from others, and make dynamic migration and return decisions. Migrants interact with individuals at origin and destination, diffusing knowledge within and across countries. To quantify this framework, I construct a micro-level data set of migrant inventors on the U.S.-EU corridor from patent data and document that (i) gross migration is asymmetric, with brain drain (net emigration) from the EU to the United States; (ii) migrants increase their patenting by 33% a year after migration; (iii) migrants continue working with inventors at origin after moving, although less frequently; (iv) migrants’ productivity gains spill over to their collaborators at origin, who increase patenting by 16% a year when a co-inventor emigrates. I calibrate the model to match the empirical results and study the effect of innovation and migration policy. A tax cut for foreigners and return migrants in the EU that eliminates the brain drain increases EU innovation but lowers U.S. innovation and knowledge spillovers. The former effect dominates in the first 25 years, increasing EU productivity growth by 3%, but the latter dominates in the long run, lowering growth by 3%. On the migration policy side, doubling the size of the U.S. H1B visa program increases U.S. and EU growth by 4% in the long run, because it sorts inventors to where they produce more innovations and knowledge spillovers.
发明者的迁移如何影响国际人才配置、知识扩散和生产率增长？为回答这一问题，我构建了一个新颖的两国创新驱动的内生增长模型，在该模型中，异质性发明者生产创新成果，向他人学习，并做出动态的迁移和回归决策。移民者与原籍地和目的地的个人互动，在国内和跨国之间传播知识。为了量化这一框架，我从专利数据中构建了一个美国 - 欧盟的移民发明者微观层面数据集，并记录了以下情况：（i）总迁移是不对称的，存在从欧盟到美国的人才流失（净移民）；（ii）移民者在迁移后每年的专利申请量增加了33%；（iii）移民者在迁移后仍继续与原籍地的发明者合作，尽管频率降低；（iv）移民者的生产率提升会溢出给原籍地的合作者，当一个共同发明者移民时，合作者每年的专利申请量增加了16%。我将模型校准以匹配实证结果，并研究创新和移民政策的影响。欧盟对外国人和回归移民的减税政策消除了人才流失，这会增加欧盟的创新，但降低美国的创新和知识溢出。前25年前者效应占主导，使欧盟生产率增长提高了3%，但从长期来看后者效应占主导，使增长降低了3%。在移民政策方面，美国H1B签证项目规模翻倍会使美国和欧盟的长期增长提高4%，因为它将发明者筛选到能产生更多创新成果和知识溢出的地方。
Reserves Were Not So Ample After All
储备其实并不充裕
Adam Copeland, Darrell Duffie, Yilin (David) Yang
We show that the likelihood of a liquidity crunch in wholesale U.S. dollar funding markets depends on levels of reserve balances at the financial institutions that are the most active intermediaries of these markets. Heightened risk of an imminent liquidity crunch is signaled by significant delays in intraday payments to these large financial institutions over the prior two weeks. Our study contributes to the broader dialogue surrounding the Federal Reserve’s ongoing quantitative tightening.
我们表明，美国批发市场美元融资市场出现流动性危机的可能性取决于这些市场中最活跃的金融中介机构的准备金余额水平。在过去的两周内，向这些大型金融机构的当日付款出现显著延迟，这表明即将出现流动性危机的风险增加。我们的研究为围绕美联储持续的量化紧缩的更广泛对话做出了贡献。
LinkedOut? A Field Experiment on Discrimination in Job Network Formation
LinkedOut？一项关于工作网络形成中的歧视的实地实验
Yulia Evsyukova, Felix Rusche, Wladislaw Mill
We assess the impact of discrimination on Black individuals’ job networks across the United States using a two-stage field experiment with 400+ fictitious LinkedIn profiles. In the first stage, we vary race via AI-generated images only and find that Black profiles’ connection requests are 13% less likely to be accepted. Based on users’ CVs, we find widespread discrimination across social groups. In the second stage, we exogenously endow Black and white profiles with the same networks and ask connected users for career advice. We find no evidence of direct discrimination in information provision. However, when taking into account differences in the composition and size of networks, Black profiles receive substantially fewer replies. Our findings suggest that gatekeeping is a key driver of Black–white disparities.
我们使用400多个虚构的领英(LinkedIn)资料进行两阶段实地实验，评估了歧视对美国黑人个体工作网络的影响。在第一阶段，我们仅通过人工智能生成的图片来改变种族，发现黑人资料的连接请求被接受的可能性降低了13%。根据用户的简历，我们发现在不同社会群体中普遍存在歧视。在第二阶段，我们外生地赋予黑人和白人资料相同的网络，并向已连接的用户寻求职业建议。我们没有发现在信息提供方面存在直接歧视的证据。然而，当考虑到网络的组成和规模差异时，黑人资料收到的回复要少得多。我们的研究结果表明，“把关”是导致黑人 - 白人差异的关键因素。
Overinference from Weak Signals and Underinference from Strong Signals
对弱信号的过度推断与对强信号的推断不足
Ned Augenblick, Eben Lazarus, Michael Thaler
When people receive new information, sometimes they revise their beliefs too much, and sometimes too little. We show that a key driver of whether people overinfer or underinfer is the strength of the information. Based on a model in which people know which direction to update in, but not exactly how much to update, we hypothesize that people will overinfer from weak signals and underinfer from strong signals. We then test this hypothesis across four different environments: abstract experiments, a naturalistic experiment, sports betting markets, and financial markets. In each environment, our consistent and robust finding is overinference from weak signals and underinference from strong signals. Our framework and findings can help harmonize apparently contradictory results from the experimental and empirical literatures.
当人们接收到新信息时，有时他们会过度修正自己的信念，有时又修正不足。我们表明，人们是过度推断还是推断不足的一个关键驱动因素是信息的强度。基于一个模型，人们知道更新的方向，但不知道确切的更新幅度，我们假设人们会从弱信号中过度推断，而从强信号中推断不足。然后，我们在四种不同的环境中测试了这一假设：抽象实验、自然实验、体育博彩市场和金融市场。在每种环境中，我们一致且稳健地发现，人们从弱信号中过度推断，而从强信号中推断不足。我们的框架和发现有助于协调实验和实证文献中看似矛盾的结果。
Believed Gender Differences in Social Preferences
社会偏好中的性别差异印象
Christine L Exley, Oliver P Hauser, Molly Moore, John-Henry Pezzuto
While there is a vast (and mixed) literature on gender differences in social preferences, little is known about believed gender differences in social preferences. Using data from 15 studies and 8,979 individuals, we find that women are believed to be more generous and more equality-oriented than men. This believed gender gap is robust across a wide range of contexts that vary in terms of strategic considerations, selfish motives, fairness concepts, and payoffs. Yet this believed gender gap is largely inaccurate. Consistent with models of associative memory, specifically the role of similarity and interference, the believed gender gap is correlated with recalled prior life experiences from similar contexts and significantly affected by an experience that may interfere with the recall process of prior memories, even though this interfering experience should not affect the beliefs of perfect-memory Bayesians. Application studies further reveal that believed gender differences extend to the household (i.e., beliefs about contributions to the home, family, and upbringing of children), the workplace (i.e., beliefs about equal pay), and policy views (i.e., beliefs about redistribution, equal access to education, healthcare, and affordable housing).
尽管关于性别在社会偏好上差异的文献浩如烟海（且结果不一），但关于人们在社会偏好中的性别差异印象却知之甚少。利用来自15项研究和8979名个体的数据，我们发现人们相信女性比男性更慷慨、更注重平等。这种被相信的性别差异（类似于对性别的刻板印象）在各种情境中都很稳健，这些情境在战略考量、自私动机、公平观念和收益方面各不相同。然而，这种被相信的性别差异在很大程度上是不准确的。这与联想记忆模型一致，特别是相似性和干扰的作用，被相信的性别差异与从类似情境中回忆起的以往生活经历相关，并且显著受到可能干扰以往记忆回忆过程的经历的影响，尽管这种干扰经历不应该影响完美记忆贝叶斯主义者的信念。应用研究进一步揭示，被相信的性别差异还扩展到了家庭（即对家庭、子女和育儿贡献的信念）、工作场所（即对同工同酬的信念）和政策观点（即对再分配、教育、医疗保健和平价住房平等获取的信念）。
The Long-Run Impacts of Public Industrial Investment on Local Development and Economic Mobility: Evidence from World War II
公共工业投资对地方发展和经济流动的长期影响：来自第二次世界大战的证据
Andrew Garin, Jonathan Rothbaum
This article studies the long-run effects of government-led construction of manufacturing plants on the regions where they were built and on individuals from those regions. Specifically, we examine publicly financed plants built in dispersed locations outside of major urban centers for security reasons during the U.S. industrial mobilization for World War II. Wartime plant construction had large and persistent effects on local development, characterized by an expansion of relatively high-wage manufacturing employment throughout the postwar era. These benefits were shared by incumbent residents; we find men born before World War II in counties where plants were built earned 1,200 (in 2020 dollars) or 2.5% more per year in adulthood relative to those born in counterfactual comparison regions, with larger benefits accruing to children of lower-income parents. The balance of evidence suggests that these individuals benefited primarily from the local expansion of higher-wage jobs to which they had access as adults, rather than because of developmental effects from exposure to better environments during childhood.
本文研究了政府主导的制造工厂建设对工厂所在地区以及该地区居民的长期影响。具体来说，我们考察了美国为第二次世界大战进行工业动员期间，出于安全原因在主要城市中心以外分散地点建造的由公共财政资助的工厂。战时工厂建设对地方发展产生了巨大且持久的影响，其特征是在整个战后时期相对高工资的制造业就业机会的扩张。这些好处由当地居民共享；我们发现，出生于工厂所在县的二战前男性在成年后每年比对照组地区出生的人多挣1200美元（按2020年美元计算）或2.5%，低收入家庭的孩子获得的收益更大。证据的平衡表明，这些人主要受益于他们成年后能够获得的当地高工资工作岗位的扩张，而不是因为童年时期接触更好环境的发展效应。
War Reparations, Structural Change, and Intergenerational Mobility
战争赔款、结构变化与代际流动
Matti Mitrunen
From 1944 to 1952, largely agrarian Finland had to export, on average, 4% of its yearly GDP in industrial products to the Soviet Union as war reparations. To meet the reparation demands, the Finnish state needed to provide extensive temporary support to Soviet-assigned industries with insufficient production capacity. This article documents the long-term effects of this extensive and temporary industrial policy on industrial and local development and on individual outcomes. Using newly digitized data sets, I show in a difference-in-differences setup that the short-term nonmarket production persistently and significantly increased the employment and production of the manufacturing industries exposed to the policy. These industries plausibly benefited from large initial investments and exposure to export markets associated with the war reparations. The episode further led to local development and structural change, as the more exposed regions became persistently more industrialized. I substantiate these within-Finland results with triple-difference setups using comparable Norwegian data. I use Finnish administrative data to study the long-term individual effects of the episode. Tracking individuals over 30 years, I show that the initial state investments and the persistent change in the local industrial structure increased long-term incomes, led to more educational attainment, and promoted the upward mobility of children and young adults in the more exposed regions before the war reparations period. The observed effects are driven by the more advanced heavy industry, which received the majority of state assistance.
从1944年到1952年，以农业为主的芬兰平均每年需向苏联出口相当于其国内生产总值4%的工业产品作为战争赔款。为了满足赔款要求，芬兰政府需要为苏联指定的产能不足的工业提供广泛的临时支持。本文记录了这一广泛且临时的产业政策对工业和地方发展以及个人结果的长期影响。利用新数字化的数据集，我在双重差分框架下表明，短期非市场生产持续且显著地增加了受政策影响的制造业的就业和生产。这些行业可能从与战争赔款相关的大量初始投资和出口市场接触中受益。这一事件进一步导致了地方发展和结构变化，因为受更多影响的地区变得更加工业化。我利用可比的挪威数据，通过三重差分来证实这些芬兰国内的结果。我利用芬兰行政数据研究这一事件的长期个人影响。追踪个体30年，我表明，最初的国家投资和当地工业结构的持续变化增加了长期收入，导致更多教育获得，并促进了在战争赔款时期之前受更多影响地区的儿童和年轻人的向上流动。观察到的效果是由更先进的重工业驱动的，该行业获得了大部分国家援助。
Mandatory Notice of Layoff, Job Search, and Efficiency
强制性裁员通知、求职与效率
Jonas Cederlöf, Peter Fredriksson, Arash Nekoei, David Seim
In all OECD countries, mandatory notice (MN) policies require firms to inform workers in advance of a layoff. In our theoretical framework, MN helps workers avoid unemployment and find better jobs by encouraging them to search for a new job while still employed, thereby increasing future production. The magnitude of this production gain depends on the relative effectiveness of search while employed versus unemployed. But on-the-job search and diminished work incentives reduce current production. If future gains outweigh current production losses, longer advance notice improves production efficiency. If not, Coasian bargaining predicts that firms offer a larger severance instead of longer notice. With bargaining, the sole efficiency loss of MN is due to delayed separations of unproductive job matches. We test these predictions using novel Swedish administrative data on layoff notifications. Workers eligible for extended MN receive longer notice and larger severance, resulting in less exposure to nonemployment spells and higher-paying jobs. These favorable labor market outcomes are solely due to longer notice; in contrast, larger severance delays job finding and has no impact on wages. We also show that advance notice replaces job search while unemployed with more effective search while employed. On the production side, we document a productivity drop among notified workers and estimate a production loss due to delayed separations. Using our estimates of production gains and losses to evaluate the overall production efficiency, we conclude that the gains of MN seem to outweigh the losses.
在所有经合组织国家，强制通知（MN）政策要求企业在裁员前通知工人。在我们的理论框架中，强制通知通过鼓励工人在就业期间寻找新工作，从而提高未来的生产率，帮助工人避免失业并找到更好的工作。生产收益的大小取决于在职搜索与失业搜索的相对有效性。但在职求职和工作激励的减少会降低当前的产量 如果未来的收益大于当前的生产损失，那么更长的提前通知时间就会提高生产效率。否则，根据科斯讨价还价理论，企业会提供更多的遣散费，而不是更长的提前通知期。在讨价还价的情况下，MN 的唯一效率损失是由于非生产性岗位匹配的延迟离职造成的。我们使用瑞典有关裁员通知的新型行政数据对这些预测进行了检验。符合延长 MN 条件的工人获得了更长的通知时间和更多的离职金，从而减少了非就业时间，获得了更高薪酬的工作。这些有利的劳动力市场结果完全归因于更长的通知时间；与此相反，更多的遣散费推迟了找工作的时间，对工资没有影响。我们还表明，提前通知会取代失业时的求职，使就业时的求职更加有效。在生产方面，我们记录了被通知工人的生产率下降，并估计了延迟离职造成的生产损失。利用我们对生产收益和损失的估算来评估整体生产效率，我们得出结论，提前通知似乎利大于弊。
Do Financial Concerns Make Workers Less Productive?
财务担忧会使工人生产力下降吗？
Supreet Kaur, Sendhil Mullainathan, Suanna Oh, Frank Schilbach
Workers who are worried about their personal finances may find it hard to focus at work. If so, reducing financial concerns could increase productivity. We test this hypothesis in a sample of low-income Indian piece-rate manufacturing workers. We stagger when wages are paid out: some workers are paid earlier and receive a cash infusion while others remain liquidity constrained. The cash infusion leads workers to reduce their financial concerns by immediately paying off debts and buying household essentials. Subsequently, they become more productive at work: their output increases by 7% (0.11 std. dev.), and they make fewer costly, unintentional mistakes. Workers with more cash on hand thus not only work faster but also more attentively, suggesting improved cognition. These effects are concentrated among more financially constrained workers. We argue that mechanisms such as gift exchange or nutrition cannot account for our results. Instead, our findings suggest that financial strain, at least partly through psychological channels, has the potential to reduce earnings exactly when money is most needed.
担心个人财务状况的工人可能会发现很难在工作中集中注意力。如果是这样，那么减少财务担忧可能会提高生产力。我们在印度低收入计件制造工人的样本中测试了这一假设。我们错开工资发放时间：一些工人提前获得工资并得到现金注入，而另一些人仍然面临流动性限制。现金注入使工人通过立即偿还债务和购买家庭必需品来减少财务担忧。随后，他们在工作中变得更加高效：他们的产出增加了7%（0.11个标准差），并且犯的代价高昂的无意错误更少。手头有更多现金的工人不仅工作速度更快，而且更加专注，这表明认知能力有所提高。这些效应主要集中在财务状况更紧张的工人中。我们认为，诸如礼物交换或营养等机制无法解释我们的结果。相反，我们的发现表明，财务压力至少部分通过心理渠道，有可能在最需要钱的时候减少收入。
Present Bias Amplifies the Household Balance-Sheet Channels of Macroeconomic Policy
现时偏差放大了宏观经济政策的家庭资产负债表渠道
Peter Maxted, David Laibson, Benjamin Moll
We study the effect of monetary and fiscal policy in a heterogeneous-agent model where households have present-biased time preferences and naive beliefs. The model features a liquid asset and illiquid home equity, which households can use as collateral for borrowing. Because present bias substantially increases households’ marginal propensity to consume (MPC), present bias increases the effect of fiscal policy. Present bias also amplifies the effect of monetary policy, but at the same time, slows down the speed of monetary transmission. Interest rate cuts incentivize households to conduct cash-out refinances, which become targeted liquidity injections to high-MPC households. Present bias also introduces a motive for households to procrastinate refinancing their mortgages, which slows down the speed with which this monetary channel operates.
我们研究了在一个异质性代理人模型中，家庭具有现时偏差的时间偏好和天真信念时，货币政策和财政政策的效果。该模型具有流动资产和不易变现的房屋权益，家庭可以将其用作借款的抵押品。因为现时偏差显著增加了家庭的边际消费倾向（MPC），所以现时偏差增强了财政政策的效果。现时偏差还放大了货币政策的效果，但同时也减缓了货币政策的传导速度。降息激励家庭进行现金提取再融资，这成为针对高MPC家庭的定向流动性注入。现时偏差还引入了家庭拖延再融资抵押贷款的动机，这减缓了这一货币政策渠道的运作速度。
A Cognitive View of Policing
对警务工作的认知视角
Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, Anuj K Shah
What causes adverse policing outcomes, such as excessive uses of force and unnecessary arrests? Prevailing explanations focus on problematic officers or deficient regulations and oversight. We introduce an overlooked perspective. We suggest that the cognitive demands inherent in policing can undermine officer decision making. Unless officers are prepared for these demands, they may jump to conclusions too quickly without fully considering alternative ways of seeing a situation. This can lead to adverse policing outcomes. To test this perspective, we created a new training that teaches officers to consider different ways of interpreting the situations they encounter. We evaluated this training using a randomized controlled trial with 2,070 officers from the Chicago Police Department. In a series of lab assessments, we find that treated officers were significantly more likely to consider a wider range of evidence and develop more explanations for subjects’ actions. Critically, we also find that training affected officer performance in the field, leading to reductions in uses of force, discretionary arrests, and arrests of Black civilians. Meanwhile, officer activity levels remained unchanged, and trained officers were less likely to be injured on duty. Our results highlight the value of considering the cognitive aspects of policing and demonstrate the power of using behaviorally informed approaches to improve officer decision making and policing outcomes.
是什么导致了不良的警务结果，如过度使用武力和不必要的逮捕？现有的解释主要集中在有问题的警官或监管和监督的不足。我们引入了一个被忽视的视角。我们建议，警务工作中固有的认知需求可能会破坏警官的决策。除非警官为这些需求做好准备，否则他们可能会过快地得出结论，而没有充分考虑看待情况的其他方式。这可能导致不良的警务结果。为了测试这一视角，我们创建了一个新的培训，教导警官考虑他们所遇到情况的不同解释方式。我们使用随机对照试验对芝加哥警察局的2070名警官进行了这项培训的评估。在一系列实验室评估中，我们发现接受培训的警官显著更有可能考虑更广泛的证据，并为对象的行为发展出更多的解释。至关重要的是，我们还发现培训影响了警官在实地的表现，导致使用武力、自由裁量逮捕以及对黑人平民的逮捕减少。同时，警官的活动水平保持不变，接受培训的警官在值班时受伤的可能性更小。我们的结果突出了考虑警务工作的认知方面的价值，并展示了使用行为信息方法改善警官决策和警务结果的力量。
Costs of Financing U.S. Federal Debt Under a Gold Standard: 1791-1933
金本位下美国联邦债务融资成本：1791-1933
Jonathan Payne, Bálint Szőke, George Hall, Thomas J Sargent
From a new data set, we infer time series of term structures of yields on U.S. federal bonds during the gold standard era from 1791–1933 and use our estimates to reassess historical narratives about how the United States expanded its fiscal capacity. We show that U.S. debt carried a default risk premium until the end of the nineteenth century, when it started being priced as an alternative safe asset to U.K. debt. During the Civil War, investors expected the United States to return to a gold standard so the federal government was able to borrow without facing denomination risk. After the introduction of the National Banking System, the slope of the yield curve switched from down to up and the premium on U.S. debt with maturity less than one year disappeared.
从一个新的数据集中，我们推断出1791年至1933年金本位时期美国联邦债券收益率期限结构的时间序列，并使用我们的估计重新评估关于美国如何扩大财政能力的历史叙述。我们表明，美国债务直到19世纪末都带有违约风险溢价，此后开始被视为英国债务的替代安全资产。在内战期间，投资者预计美国将回归金本位，因此联邦政府能够借款而无需面对货币风险。在国家银行体系引入后，收益率曲线的斜率从下降变为上升，美国一年期以下债务的溢价消失了。
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