编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（12.23-12.29）共发布 40 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送中间 14 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
美国基于地理的政策制定中吸取的教训与被忽视的经验
Matthew Freedman and David Neumark #33272
Abstract: Place-based programs aim to encourage economic and community development in defined geographic areas. They frequently offer tax incentives, grants, loans, or regulatory relief to private or non-profit entities for investing in specific communities. Funding can support a range of activities, including investments in job creation, infrastructure, workforce development, affordable housing, and more. Interest in spatially targeted interventions in the U.S. has waxed and waned over time in response to changing political environments, policy advocacy, and the evolving conclusions of academic research. The nature of place-based programs themselves has also evolved – often building on the lessons learned from past research and experience, but sometimes ignoring these lessons. In this chapter, we review what we have learned from past place-based job creation programs in the U.S. context. We also describe some of the newest developments in place-based policymaking and how recent programs’ successes and failures in heeding past lessons have contributed to their relative effectiveness.
摘要：基于地理的项目旨在促进特定地理区域的经济和社区发展。它们通常通过提供税收优惠、补助金、贷款或监管宽松政策，鼓励私人或非营利实体对特定社区进行投资。这些资金可以支持多种活动，包括创造就业、基础设施建设、劳动力发展、提供可负担住房等。在美国，针对特定地区的干预措施的关注度随着政治环境的变化、政策倡导和学术研究结论的演变而时起时落。基于地理的项目本身的性质也在不断演变——有时基于以往研究和经验中吸取的教训，但有时也忽视了这些教训。在本章中，我们回顾了美国以往基于地理的就业创造项目中所获得的经验教训。同时，我们还描述了基于地理的政策制定中的一些最新进展，并探讨了最近的项目在遵循或忽视以往经验方面的成功与失败，以及这些因素如何影响了它们的相对有效性。
财富分配中的风险偏好与厚尾现象
Aloisio Araujo, Juan Pablo Gama, and Timothy J. Kehoe #33298
Abstract: We study the dynamic properties of the wealth distribution in an overlapping generations model with warm-glow bequests and heterogeneous attitudes towards risk. Some dynasties of agents are risk averters, and others are risk lovers. Agents can invest in two types of Lucas trees. The two types of trees are symmetric in the sense that one type has a high return in states where the other has a return of zero. This symmetry allows risk averters to perfectly ensure their future income and eliminates aggregate uncertainty in the model. Furthermore, risk lovers take extreme portfolio positions, which make it easy for us to characterize the evolution of their wealth holdings over time. We show that the model has an equilibrium in which the aggregate wealth distribution converges to a unique invariant distribution. The invariant distribution of wealth of the risk lovers has fat tails for high bequest rates. The existence of fat tails is endogenously generated by the behavior of risk lovers rather than by the exogenous existence of fat tails in the endowments or in the returns of the assets.
摘要：我们研究了一个包含“温暖情感遗赠”（warm-glow bequests）和异质风险态度的重叠世代模型中财富分配的动态特性。在该模型中，一些家族的代理人是风险规避者，而另一些则是风险偏好者。代理人可以投资两种类型的卢卡斯树（Lucas trees）。这两种树在某种对称性意义上是对称的：即一种树在某些状态下有高回报，而另一种树在相同状态下的回报为零。这种对称性使风险规避者能够完全保障其未来收入，并消除了模型中的总体不确定性。此外，风险偏好者采取极端的投资组合策略，这使我们能够更容易地刻画其财富持有量随时间的演变过程。我们证明，该模型存在一个均衡，在这一均衡中，总体财富分配收敛于一个独特的不变分布。对于高遗赠率，风险偏好者的财富不变分布呈现厚尾现象。这种厚尾现象是由风险偏好者的行为内生生成的，而不是由于禀赋或资产回报中外生存在的厚尾所导致。
移民影响评估中的意识形态偏见
George J. Borjas and Nate Breznau #33274
Abstract: When studying policy-relevant topics, researchers’ policy preferences may shape the design, execution, analysis, and interpretation of results. Detection of such bias is challenging because the research process itself is not normally part of a controlled experimental setting. Our analysis exploits a rare opportunity where 158 researchers working independently in 71 research teams participated in an experiment. After being surveyed about their position on immigration policy, they used the same data to answer the same well-defined empirical question: Does immigration affect the level of public support for social welfare programs? The researchers estimated 1,253 alternative regression models, producing a frequency distribution of the measured impact ranging from strongly negative to strongly positive. We find that research teams composed of pro-immigration researchers estimated more positive impacts of immigration on public support for social programs, while anti-immigration research teams reported more negative estimates. Moreover, the methods used by teams with strong pro- or anti- immigration priors received lower “referee scores” from their peers in the experiment. These lower-rated models helped produce the different effects estimated by the teams at the tails of the immigration sentiment distribution. The underlying research design decisions are the mechanism through which ideology enters the production function for parameter estimates.
摘要：在研究与政策相关的主题时，研究人员的政策偏好可能会影响研究的设计、执行、分析和结果的解读。由于研究过程本身通常不处于受控的实验环境中，检测此类偏见极具挑战性。我们的分析利用了一次难得的机会：158名研究人员组成71个研究团队独立参与了一项实验。在被调查其对移民政策的立场后，他们使用相同的数据回答了一个相同且明确的实证问题：移民是否会影响公众对社会福利项目的支持水平？研究人员估计了1,253种不同的回归模型，生成了测量影响的频率分布，其结果从强烈负面到强烈正面不等。我们发现，由支持移民的研究人员组成的团队估计移民对公众支持社会福利项目的影响更为正面，而反对移民的研究团队则得出了更为负面的估计。此外，具有强烈支持或反对移民立场的团队所采用的方法在实验中获得的“同行评分”较低。这些评分较低的模型促成了分布两端移民情感的不同效果估计。研究设计决策是意识形态进入参数估计生成过程的主要机制。
居家办公技术繁荣中的赢家与输家
Morris A. Davis, Andra C. Ghent, and Jesse M. Gregory #33284
Abstract: We model how an increase in Work-from-Home (WFH) productivity differentially affects workers using a framework in which some workers cannot work offsite, some are hybrid, and some are completely remote. The improvement in WFH productivity increases housing demand and thus housing prices since housing is inelastically supplied. Because workers in non-telecommutable occupations must consume housing but their total factor productivity does not increase, the rise in house prices reduces their welfare. The welfare decline is equivalent to 1-9% of consumption, depending on how substitutable WFH is with onsite work, and it arises despite measured income of all workers increasing.
摘要：我们使用一个框架来模拟居家办公（WFH）生产率提高对不同类型工人的差异化影响。在该框架中，一些工人无法远程工作，一些工人采用混合模式，而另一些则完全远程办公。居家办公生产率的提升增加了对住房的需求，从而推高了房价，因为住房供给缺乏弹性。由于从事不可远程工作的职业的工人必须消费住房，而他们的总要素生产率（TFP）并未提高，因此房价上涨导致了他们福利的下降。根据居家办公与现场工作的替代性程度，这种福利下降相当于消费的1%-9%，尽管所有工人的收入都有所增加，但这一福利损失依然存在。
非洲年轻人的心理健康
David G. Blanchflower and Alex Bryson #33280
Abstract: Growing evidence from around the world suggests the mental health of children and young adults is declining. We examine trends in mental health in Africa where there has been little prior work. We examine data from a number of surveys including Afrobarometers, the Gallup World Poll, the World Values Surveys, UNICEF’s Multiple Cluster Indicator Surveys and Global Minds. We find little support for the proposition that the age structure of wellbeing in Africa has changed over the last decade, although the Global Minds surveys, conducted over the internet, do find mental health improves with age. One potential reason for this is the limited amount of internet access in Africa, especially for women. In countries like Burkina Faso and Guinea the majority of the population say they have never accessed the internet. In a new survey in rural Tanzania, where there is little or no internet access, mental health improves with age. The absence of the internet might help explain why the mental health of young Africans have been declining less than elsewhere other than for the internet savvy. However, there are dangers on the horizon as the sales of smartphones explode in Africa.
摘要：来自全球的越来越多证据表明，儿童和年轻人的心理健康正在下降。我们研究了非洲地区的心理健康趋势，此前在该地区相关研究较少。我们分析了包括非洲晴雨表（Afrobarometers）、盖洛普全球民意调查（Gallup World Poll）、世界价值观调查（World Values Surveys）、联合国儿童基金会的多指标集群调查（UNICEF’s Multiple Cluster Indicator Surveys）以及全球思维（Global Minds）等多项调查的数据。我们的研究发现，尽管互联网进行的Global Minds调查显示心理健康随着年龄增长而改善，但总体来看，过去十年非洲地区的幸福感年龄结构变化并不显著。其中一个潜在原因可能是非洲的互联网接入率有限，尤其是女性群体。在布基纳法索和几内亚等国家，大多数人表示从未使用过互联网。在互联网接入率极低或几乎没有互联网接入的坦桑尼亚农村地区的一项新调查中，我们发现心理健康随着年龄增长而改善。这表明互联网的缺失可能解释了为什么非洲年轻人的心理健康下降幅度比其他地区更小，除了那些对互联网熟悉的人群以外。然而，随着非洲智能手机销售的激增，未来可能面临一些新的挑战和风险。
统一增长理论：国家财富增长与不平等的根源
Oded Galor #33288
Abstract: What sparked humanity’s leap from stagnation to prosperity? What lies at the core of inequality among nations? Unified Growth Theory explores the evolution of societies over the entire course of human history. It uncovers the universal wheels of change that have governed the journey of humanity, driven the growth process, and shaped inequality across the globe. The theory sheds light on two of the most fundamental mysteries surrounding this journey: (i) The Mystery of Growth—the origins of the dramatic transformation in human prosperity over the past two centuries, in the wake of millennia of near stagnation; and (ii) The Mystery of Inequality—the roots of the vast inequality in the wealth of nations. The theory suggests that forces operating in the distant past are central to the understanding of the uneven development across the globe and the design of effective policies that could promote economic growth and mitigate inequality.
摘要：是什么促使人类从停滞跃升到繁荣？国家之间不平等的核心原因是什么？统一增长理论探讨了人类社会在整个历史进程中的演变，揭示了驱动人类发展、推动增长过程并塑造全球不平等的普遍变革动力。这一理论阐明了围绕这一历程的两个最根本的谜题：(i) 增长之谜——在人类经历了数千年的近乎停滞后，过去两个世纪中繁荣发生剧变的根源；(ii) 不平等之谜——国家财富巨大不平等的根源。该理论指出，远古时代运作的力量对于理解全球发展不平衡至关重要，同时也为制定促进经济增长和减少不平等的有效政策提供了重要见解。
大衰退与经济刺激期间的高速公路采购
Dakshina G. De Silva and Benjamin Rosa #33299
Abstract: We study highway procurement in Texas during the Great Recession and stimulus period, finding increased competition with more bidders and lower bids. We argue that the recession reduced opportunity costs, in part due to a slump in private-sector construction. We evaluate costs and efficiency by developing methods to estimate an empirical auction model tailored for public bidding and demonstrate that contracts became more efficient and less costly. A counterfactual analysis confirms that infrastructure procurement during recessions not only stimulates the economy but also enables the government to complete necessary projects at lower costs.
摘要：我们研究了大衰退和经济刺激期间德克萨斯州的高速公路采购，发现竞争加剧，投标者数量增多，投标价格下降。我们认为，这一现象部分是由于经济衰退减少了机会成本，尤其是私人建筑行业的低迷。通过开发适用于公共招标的经验拍卖模型，我们评估了成本和效率，结果表明合同变得更加高效且成本更低。反事实分析进一步证实，在经济衰退期间进行基础设施采购不仅能刺激经济，还能使政府以更低的成本完成必要的项目。
开放银行与数字支付：对信贷获取的影响
Shashwat Alok, Pulak Ghosh, Nirupama Kulkarni, and Manju Puri #33259
Abstract: Does the ability to generate verifiable digital financial histories, with customers having data-sharing rights, improve credit access? We answer this using India’s launch of an Open-Banking based public digital payment infrastructure (UPI). Using rarely available data on the universe of consumer loans we show credit increases by both fintechs (new entrants) and banks (incumbents), on the intensive and extensive margin, including increased credit to subprime and new-to-credit customers. We show several mechanisms at play: low-cost internet improves credit access, lenders weigh in digital histories, and digital payments with Open Banking effectively complement first-time bank accounts enabling access to formal credit.
摘要：客户拥有数据共享权的情况下，生成可验证的数字财务历史是否能够改善信贷获取？我们通过印度推出基于开放银行的公共数字支付基础设施（UPI）对此问题进行研究。利用难得获取的全面消费者贷款数据，我们发现，无论是金融科技公司（新进入者）还是银行（现有机构），信贷都在强度和广度上有所增加，包括对次级贷款客户和首次信贷客户的信贷增长。我们揭示了几个机制的作用：低成本互联网改善了信贷获取，贷款机构参考数字财务历史，而开放银行的数字支付与首次开设的银行账户有效互补，从而促进了对正规信贷的获取。
论文路径：经济学研究生产函数中的导师与学生
Joshua Angrist and Marc Diederichs #33281
Abstract: Elite economics PhD programs aim to train graduate students for a lifetime of academic research. This paper asks how advising affects graduate students’ post-PhD research productivity. Advising is highly concentrated: at the eight highly-selective schools in our study, a minority of advisors do most of the advising work. We quantify advisor characteristics such as an advisor’s own research output and aspects of the advising relationship like coauthoring and research field affinity that might contribute to student research success. Students advised by research-active, prolific advisors tend to publish more, while coauthoring has no effect. Student-advisor research affinity also predicts student success. But a school-level aggregate production function provides much weaker evidence of causal effects, suggesting that successful advisors attract students likely to succeed–without necessarily boosting their students’ chances of success. Evidence for causal effects is strongest for a measure of advisors’ own research output. Aggregate student research output appears to scale linearly with graduate student enrollment, with no evidence of negative class-size effects. An analysis of gender differences in research output shows male and female graduate students to be equally productive in the first few years post-PhD, but female productivity peaks sooner than male productivity.
摘要：顶尖的经济学博士项目旨在培养研究生从事终生的学术研究。本文探讨了导师指导如何影响研究生在获得博士学位后的研究生产力。指导工作高度集中：在我们研究的八所高度选择性的学校中，少数导师承担了大部分的指导任务。我们量化了导师的特征（如导师自身的研究产出）以及指导关系的某些方面（如共同署名发表论文和研究领域的契合度），这些因素可能会影响学生的研究成功。研究发现，由研究活跃且高产的导师指导的学生通常发表更多论文，而共同署名发表论文对学生的研究成果没有影响。学生与导师研究领域的契合度也能够预测学生的成功。然而，基于学校层面的总体生产函数提供的因果效应证据较弱，这表明成功的导师更可能吸引有潜力成功的学生，而不一定显著提升学生成功的几率。导师自身研究产出的因果效应证据最为强烈。总体而言，学生的研究产出与研究生招生人数呈线性增长关系，没有发现班级规模负面影响的证据。在性别差异的研究产出分析中发现，男性和女性研究生在博士毕业后的最初几年中研究产出同样高，但女性的研究产出达到顶峰的时间早于男性。
在美国税表上对儿童的申报问题
Geoffrey Gee, Jacob Goldin, Joseph Gray-Hancuch, Ithai Lurie, and Vedant Vohra #33277
Abstract: Tax benefits tied to children form a central component of the social safety net in the United States. To participate in these programs, taxpayers must claim a child on their tax return. We study the claiming of children on tax returns by drawing on health insurance information returns to establish the presence of children in the United States. We estimate that the vast majority of insured children (approximately 95 percent) and a significant majority (between 88 and 97 percent) of all U.S. children are claimed on tax returns. Unclaimed children are disproportionately concentrated in lower income households and are more likely to live in Black and Hispanic neighborhoods.
摘要：与儿童相关的税收优惠是美国社会保障网的重要组成部分。为了参与这些项目，纳税人必须在其税表上申报子女。我们通过利用健康保险信息申报表的数据来研究美国税表上对儿童的申报情况。我们的估算表明，绝大多数有保险的儿童（约95%）以及绝大多数美国儿童（88%到97%之间）都在税表上被申报。而未被申报的儿童则更多集中在低收入家庭，并且更可能生活在黑人和西班牙裔社区。
从统一税制到公平税制？累进税制改革的影响
Nicolas Ajzenman, Guillermo Cruces, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, Darío Tortarolo, and Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare #33286
Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of a progressive tax reform on tax compliance. We leverage a major progressive tax reform in a large Argentine municipality. First, we use a quasi-experimental design to estimate the causal effect of changes in a household's own tax rates on its tax compliance. Second, we utilize a large-scale natural field experiment to examine whether, holding a household's own tax rates constant, tax compliance is influenced by the tax rates of poorer or richer households. We find that reducing taxes for poorer households increases their compliance, while increasing taxes for richer households decreases their compliance. When poor households learn about the tax hike on the rich, this increases their perceived fairness of the tax system and their tax compliance. When rich households learn about the tax cuts for the poor, their perceived fairness increases significantly, but their compliance, if anything, goes down. Leveraging another reform (and another field experiment) that took place a year later, we show that both the quasi-experimental and experimental findings replicate. Our evidence highlights that tax compliance depends not only on a household's own tax rate but also on its perception of the broader tax schedule. Our findings also highlight the gap between stated and revealed preferences for redistribution. Lastly, we conduct a counterfactual analysis to illustrate the implications of our findings for the design of tax policies.
摘要：本文研究了累进税制改革对税收合规性的影响。我们利用阿根廷一个大型市政区的一项重大累进税制改革，进行了以下分析：首先，我们采用准实验设计，估计家庭自身税率变化对其税收合规性的因果影响。其次，我们通过一项大规模的自然田野实验，探讨在家庭自身税率保持不变的情况下，较贫困或较富裕家庭的税率是否会影响其税收合规性。研究发现，降低较贫困家庭的税率可以提高其税收合规性，而提高较富裕家庭的税率则会降低其税收合规性。当较贫困家庭得知富人税率提高时，他们对税收制度的公平性感知增加，并提高了自己的税收合规性。而当较富裕家庭得知贫困家庭的税率降低时，他们对税收制度的公平性感知显著提升，但他们的税收合规性却有所下降，甚至可能下降。利用一年后进行的另一项改革（及另一项田野实验），我们验证了上述准实验和实验结果的再现性。我们的证据表明，税收合规性不仅取决于家庭自身的税率，还受到其对整体税收制度的感知影响。此外，我们的研究也揭示了人们在再分配政策上的表述偏好与实际行为之间的差距。最后，我们进行了反事实分析，说明研究发现对税收政策设计的潜在影响。
劳动力市场中的性别不平等：持续的进展？
Francine D. Blau #33266
Abstract: This article examines the trends in women’s economic outcomes in the United States focusing primarily on labor force participation, occupational attainment, and the gender wage gap. The author first highlights considerable progress on all dimensions prior to the 1990s followed by a slowing or stalling of gains thereafter, with a plateauing of female labor force participation trends and a slowing of women’s occupational and wage convergence with men. She considers the likelihood of a resumption of progress in narrowing gender gaps in these areas, concluding it is unlikely without policy intervention. She then considers some new policy initiatives addressing work-family issues and labor market discrimination that may hold potential for increasing female labor force participation and narrowing gender inequities in the labor market.
摘要：本文探讨了美国女性经济状况的趋势，主要关注劳动参与率、职业成就以及性别工资差距。作者首先指出，在1990年代之前，这些方面取得了显著进展，但此后进展放缓甚至停滞，表现为女性劳动参与率趋势的停滞，以及女性在职业和工资与男性差距缩小上的进程减缓。作者分析了在这些领域缩小性别差距的进展可能恢复的可能性，并得出结论认为，如果没有政策干预，这种恢复是不太可能的。随后，她讨论了一些新的政策倡议，这些政策着眼于解决工作与家庭之间的冲突以及劳动力市场中的性别歧视问题，这些政策可能有助于提高女性的劳动参与率并缩小劳动力市场中的性别不平等。
日本消费者对卷烟和加热烟草产品的偏好：基于离散选择实验的证据
Donald S. Kenkel, Alan D. Mathios, Grace N. Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang, and Sen Zeng #33301
Abstract: Heated tobacco products (HTPs), a harm reducing cigarette alternative, gained popularity over the past decade and appear to have contributed significantly to the reduction of smoking in Japan. While the increased popularity of HTPs suggests a consumer preference for cigarette alternatives, there is a limited understanding of how consumers choose between different tobacco products. Understanding consumer choice is especially salient given the evolving policy landscape and proposals to increase HTP taxes. This study uses a large discrete choice experiment to examine the decision-making processes of smokers in Japan when choosing between cigarettes, HTPs, and quitting. We assess the influence of various product attributes such as prices, flavors, nicotine content, and warning messages on these choices. The findings reveal that prices and flavors significantly influence smokers' preferences. Specifically, higher HTP prices tend to drive smokers back to combustible cigarettes and discourage them from choosing to quit. Additionally, there is some evidence that consumers prefer HTPs with a wide variety of flavors. Meanwhile, hypothetical policy simulations that change warning messages or nicotine content do not affect consumers' choices.
摘要：加热烟草产品（HTPs）作为一种减少危害的香烟替代品，在过去十年中逐渐流行，并似乎对日本吸烟率的下降做出了显著贡献。尽管HTPs的日益普及表明消费者对香烟替代品的偏好，但关于消费者如何在不同烟草产品之间做出选择的理解仍然有限。鉴于政策环境的变化以及提高HTP税收的提议，了解消费者的选择行为尤为重要。本研究通过一项大规模的离散选择实验，研究了日本吸烟者在选择卷烟、HTPs和戒烟时的决策过程。我们评估了价格、口味、尼古丁含量以及警告信息等多种产品属性对这些选择的影响。研究结果显示，价格和口味对吸烟者的偏好有显著影响。具体而言，更高的HTP价格往往会促使吸烟者重新选择传统可燃香烟，并减少其选择戒烟的可能性。此外，有证据表明，消费者偏好具有多样化口味的HTPs。同时，假设的政策模拟表明，改变警告信息或尼古丁含量对消费者的选择没有显著影响。
攀登象牙塔：社会经济背景如何塑造学术界
Ran Abramitzky, Lena Greska, Santiago Pérez, Joseph Price, Carlo Schwarz, and Fabian Waldinger #33289
Abstract: We explore how socio-economic background shapes academia, collecting the largest dataset of U.S. academics’ backgrounds and research output. Individuals from poorer backgrounds have been severely underrepresented for seven decades, especially in humanities and elite universities. Father’s occupation predicts professors’ discipline choice and, thus, the direction of research. While we find no differences in the average number of publications, academics from poorer backgrounds are both more likely to not publish and to have outstanding publication records. Academics from poorer backgrounds introduce more novel scientific concepts, but are less likely to receive recognition, as measured by citations, Nobel Prize nominations, and awards.
摘要：我们研究了社会经济背景如何影响学术界，收集了美国学者背景和研究成果的最大数据集。来自较贫困背景的个人在过去七十年中严重代表不足，尤其是在人文学科和精英大学中。父亲的职业能够预测教授的学科选择，从而影响研究方向。虽然我们发现发表论文的平均数量没有显著差异，但来自较贫困背景的学者更有可能既未发表论文，也有杰出的发表记录。此外，来自较贫困背景的学者引入了更多新颖的科学概念，但他们获得认可的可能性较低，这可以通过引用次数、诺贝尔奖提名和奖项数量来衡量。
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