编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（12.16-12.22）共发布 24 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送中间 8 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
具有套利者的细粒化国债需求
Kristy A.E. Jansen, Wenhao Li, and Lukas Schmid #33243
Abstract: We construct a novel dataset of sector-level U.S. Treasury holdings, covering the majority of the market. Using this dataset, we estimate maturity-specific demand functions and elasticities of different investors and the Fed, and integrate them into a dynamic equilibrium model of the Treasury market with risk-averse arbitrageurs. Quantifying the model reveals that (1) strong arbitrage leads to an elastic Treasury market and a steeply downward-sloping term structure of market elasticity; (2) monetary tightening raises term premia due to arbitrageurs interacting with investors exhibiting high cross-elasticities; (3) QE has limited impact unless the Fed credibly commits to sustained balance sheet expansion.
摘要：我们构建了一个涵盖美国国债市场大部分的按部门分类的国债持有数据集。基于该数据集，我们估计了不同投资者和美联储的针对不同期限的需求函数和弹性，并将这些需求整合到一个包含风险规避套利者的国债市场动态均衡模型中。对模型的量化分析表明：(1) 强套利活动使国债市场具有弹性，同时导致市场弹性期限结构呈陡峭的下降趋势；(2) 货币紧缩通过套利者与具有高交叉弹性的投资者的互动，提高了期限溢价；(3) 除非美联储能够可信地承诺持续扩张资产负债表，否则量化宽松（QE）的影响有限。
迈向理解在政策制定中使用现场实验的政治经济学
Guglielmo Briscese and John A. List #33239
Abstract: Field experiments provide the clearest window into the true impact of many policies, allowing us to understand what works, what does not, and why. Yet, their widespread use has not been accompanied by a deep understanding of the political economy of their adoption in policy circles. This study begins with a large-scale natural field experiment that demonstrates the ineffectiveness of a widely implemented intervention. We leverage this result to understand how policymakers and a representative sample of the U.S. population update their beliefs of not only the policy itself, but the use of science and the trust they have in government. Policymakers, initially overly optimistic about the program’s effectiveness, adjust their views based on evidence but show reduced demand for experimentation, suggesting experiment aversion when results defy expectations. Among the U.S. public, support for policy experiments is high and remains robust despite receiving disappointing results, though trust in the implementing institutions declines, particularly in terms of perceptions of competence and integrity. Providing additional information on the value of learning from unexpected findings partially mitigates this trust loss. These insights, from both the demand and supply side, reveal the complexities of managing policymakers’ expectations and underscore the potential returns to educating the public on the value of open-mindedness in policy experimentation.
摘要：现场实验为许多政策的实际影响提供了最清晰的视角，使我们能够了解哪些政策有效，哪些无效，以及原因。然而，这些实验的广泛使用并未伴随对其在政策制定中采用的政治经济学的深入理解。本研究从一项大规模自然现场实验开始，该实验表明一种被广泛实施的干预措施无效。我们利用这一结果来研究政策制定者和美国公众的代表性样本如何更新他们对该政策本身、科学使用以及对政府信任的看法。政策制定者最初对该计划的有效性过于乐观，但在看到证据后调整了看法。然而，他们对实验的需求减少，表现出在实验结果不符合预期时的实验规避倾向。相较之下，美国公众对政策实验的支持度较高，即使看到令人失望的结果，这种支持也依然强劲。然而，公众对实施机构的信任下降，尤其是对其能力和诚信的看法受到影响。提供关于从意外发现中学习价值的更多信息在一定程度上缓解了这种信任损失。这些从需求和供给两方面得出的洞见揭示了管理政策制定者预期的复杂性，并强调了向公众教育政策实验中保持开放心态价值的潜在回报。
玻璃天花板的裂缝与性别平等：出口能否打破玻璃天花板？
Bruno César Araújo, Lourenço S. Paz, and James E. West #33260
Abstract: We use Brazilian administrative employer-employee matched data of worker demographics, industry of affiliation, occupation, and wages to examine whether females in managerial and executive positions (cracks in the glass ceiling) lead to more gender-equal workplace outcomes. In response to the large and unanticipated 1999 Brazilian Real exchange rate devaluation, the gender wage gap widened across all firms. The contrast between female and male-led firms was large and highly significant regarding managerial and supervisory employees. Both the gender wage gap and the proportion of female employees grew more in female-led firms than in male-led firms, consistent with the predictions of our monopsony model of firm behavior. We conclude that exports further crack the glass ceiling but do not necessarily improve the gender wage gap.
摘要：我们利用巴西行政数据中雇主-雇员匹配的资料，分析了关于员工人口统计特征、所属行业、职业和工资的数据，研究是否担任管理和执行职位的女性（玻璃天花板的裂缝）能够促进工作场所的性别平等结果。针对1999年巴西雷亚尔汇率大幅且意外贬值的事件，我们发现性别工资差距在所有企业中普遍扩大。在女性领导的企业和男性领导的企业之间，对于管理层和监督职位的员工，性别工资差距的变化显著不同。在女性领导的企业中，性别工资差距和女性员工比例的增长均高于男性领导的企业，这与我们的企业行为单一雇主模型的预测一致。我们的研究得出结论：出口进一步扩大了玻璃天花板的裂缝，但未必改善性别工资差距。
可持续投资
Lubos Pastor, Robert F. Stambaugh, and Lucian A. Taylor #33252
Abstract: We review the literature on sustainable investing, focusing on financial effects. First, we examine the effects of investor tastes on portfolio tilts and asset prices in a simple equilibrium setting. We establish novel connections, including a direct relation between the green portfolio tilt and the greenium. We also relate our framework to prior modeling of divestment. Finally, we review evidence related to the main concepts from our theoretical analysis, including the greenium, green tilts, climate risk, and investor tastes.
摘要：我们回顾了关于可持续投资的文献，重点关注其对金融的影响。首先，在一个简单的均衡框架下，我们研究了投资者偏好对投资组合倾向和资产价格的影响。我们建立了一些新的联系，包括绿色投资组合倾向与“绿色溢价”（greenium）之间的直接关系。我们还将这一框架与此前关于撤资的模型研究进行了关联。最后，我们回顾了与理论分析的主要概念相关的证据，包括绿色溢价、绿色投资倾向、气候风险以及投资者偏好。
摆脱过去：童年时期接触钩虫根除计划与老年寿命的关系
Hamid Noghanibehambari and Jason Fletcher #33249
Abstract: This study examines the long-term effects of the Rockefeller Sanitary Commission’s (RSC) hookworm eradication campaign, initiated in the American South in the 1910s, on old-age longevity. Utilizing Social Security Administration death records linked to the 1940 full-count census, we employ a difference-in-differences approach to examine the effects of early-life exposure to the eradication campaign on later-life outcomes. We find that individuals exposed to the RSC campaign during in-utero and early-life experience an increase of 1.3 months in longevity. The effects are substantially larger among nonwhites, children of illiterate mothers, and those born in urban areas. Moreover, we provide evidence of dynamic complementarity in the effects of hookworm eradication on longevity, with larger effects observed in counties exposed to the Rosenwald school construction movement and in states with more stringent child labor laws. Using the 1940 census and World War II enlistment data, we provide suggestive evidence of improvements in educational attainment, income, and cognitive ability as possible pathways. Our findings contribute to the literature on the lasting effects of early-life public health interventions and underscore the importance of such programs in addressing present-day global health challenges.
摘要：本研究探讨了1910年代由洛克菲勒卫生委员会（RSC）在美国南方发起的钩虫根除运动对老年寿命的长期影响。利用与1940年全量人口普查相链接的社会安全管理局死亡记录，我们采用差异中差异法研究早年接触钩虫根除运动对晚年结果的影响。研究发现，那些在母体内或早年生活期间接触到RSC运动的人，寿命平均延长了1.3个月。这一影响在非白人、文盲母亲的子女以及出生于城市地区的人群中更为显著。此外，我们提供了钩虫根除对寿命影响的动态互补性证据：在受益于Rosenwald学校建设运动的县以及儿童劳动法更严格的州，效果更为显著。利用1940年人口普查和二战入伍数据，我们提供了关于教育水平、收入和认知能力改善可能是作用路径的初步证据。我们的研究为早期公共卫生干预的持久效应文献作出贡献，并强调此类项目在应对当今全球健康挑战中的重要性。
交通生产率对美国经济的长期影响
A. Kerem Coşar, Sophie Osotimehin, and Latchezar Popov #33248
Abstract: We quantify the aggregate, regional and sectoral impacts of transportation productivity growth on the US economy over the period 1947-2017. Using a multi-region, multi-sector model that explicitly captures produced transportation services as a key input to interregional trade, we find that the calibrated change in transportation productivity had a sizable impact on aggregate welfare, magnified by a factor of 2.3 compared to its sectoral share in GDP. The amplification mechanism results from the complementarity between transport services and tradable goods, interacting with sectoral and spatial linkages. The geographical implications are highly uneven, with the West and Southwest benefiting the most from market access improvements while the Northeast experiences a decline. Sectoral impacts are largest in transportation-intensive activities like agriculture, mining and heavy manufacturing. Our results demonstrate the outsized and heterogeneous impact of the transportation sector in shaping US economic activity through specialization and spatial transformation.
摘要：我们量化了1947年至2017年间交通生产率增长对美国经济在整体、区域和部门层面的影响。通过一个多地区、多部门的模型，该模型明确将生产性交通服务作为区域间贸易的关键投入，我们发现，交通生产率校准变化对整体福利的影响是其在GDP中部门份额的2.3倍。这一放大机制来源于交通服务与可贸易商品之间的互补性，并与部门和空间的关联性相互作用。地理影响高度不均，西部和西南部因市场准入改善受益最大，而东北部则出现衰退。在部门层面，交通密集型活动（如农业、采矿和重工业）受到的影响最大。我们的研究结果表明，交通部门通过推动专业化和空间转型，对美国经济活动的影响既显著又异质化。
知识的压制与审查下的韧性：中国三百年书籍出版研究
Ying Bai, Ruixue Jia, and Jiaojiao Yang #33258
Abstract: This study examines the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of state censorship on knowledge production, focusing on the largest book-banning campaign in Chinese history, initiated during the compilation of the 'Siku Quanshu' (Complete Library in Four Sections) between 1772 and 1783. Analyzing publication data from over 161,000 books spanning the 1660s to the 1940s, we find that categories subjected to stricter censorship experienced significant declines in publication during the seven decades following the bans (1770s–1830s). However, beginning in the 1840s, political upheavals and the erosion of state control triggered a resurgence of publications in previously restricted categories. This pattern of suppression and recovery extends to ideas, as evidenced by keyword analysis of book titles. Further analysis highlights the central role of chilling effects in driving these dynamics, with the exit and entry of publishers playing a crucial role in both the suppression and subsequent revival of knowledge production.
摘要：本研究探讨了国家审查对知识生产的短期、中期和长期影响，重点分析中国历史上最大规模的禁书运动，即1772年至1783年间为编纂《四库全书》而发起的禁书行动。通过分析涵盖1660年代至1940年代的超过16.1万本书籍的出版数据，我们发现，在禁令实施后的七十年间（1770年代至1830年代），受到更严格审查的书籍类别出版量显著下降。然而，从1840年代开始，随着政治动荡和国家控制的削弱，此前被限制的类别出现了出版复苏。这种压制与复苏的模式同样适用于思想领域，书籍标题的关键词分析也验证了这一点。进一步分析表明，“寒蝉效应”在这些动态中起到了关键作用，出版商的退出和新出版商的进入在知识生产的压制与后续复兴中都发挥了重要作用。
融资、所有权与绩效：一个新颖的纵向企业层面数据库
J. David Brown, Steven J. Davis, Lucia S. Foster, John C. Haltiwanger, and John Sabelhaus #33254
Abstract: The Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) underpins many studies of firm-level behavior. It tracks longitudinally all employers in the nonfarm private sector but lacks information about business financing and owner characteristics. We address this shortcoming by linking LBD observations to firm-level data drawn from several large Census Bureau surveys. The resulting Longitudinal Employer, Owner, and Financing (LEOF) database contains more than 3 million observations at the firm-year level with information about start-up financing, current financing, owner demographics, ownership structure, profitability, and owner aspirations – all linked to annual firm-level employment data since the firm hired its first employee. Using the LEOF database, we document trends in owner demographics and financing patterns and investigate how these business characteristics relate to firm-level employment outcomes.
摘要：美国人口普查局的纵向企业数据库（LBD）支撑了许多关于企业层面行为的研究。该数据库对非农私营部门的所有雇主进行纵向跟踪，但缺乏有关企业融资和所有者特征的信息。我们通过将LBD观察数据与来自多个大型人口普查局调查的企业层面数据相结合，弥补了这一缺陷。由此形成的纵向雇主、所有者与融资（LEOF）数据库包含了超过300万条企业-年份层面的观测数据，涵盖了启动融资、当前融资、所有者人口统计信息、所有权结构、盈利能力以及所有者目标等信息——所有这些都与企业雇佣首名员工以来的年度企业层面就业数据相连接。利用LEOF数据库，我们揭示了所有者人口统计特征和融资模式的趋势，并研究了这些企业特征与企业层面就业结果之间的关系。
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