警官不当行为与无定罪逮捕之间的关系

Bocar A. Ba, Nayoung Rim, and Roman Rivera #33276

Abstract: Given the use of an individual’s arrest history for many economic and social outcomes, reducing conviction‐less arrests (arrests that result in no charges or where the defendant is found not guilty) is an important policy goal. This paper examines which officers are making conviction‐less arrests, and whether these arrests can be reduced with increased oversight. Using the Chicago Police Department’s rotational duty calendar to obtain plausibly exogenous variation in the set of officers assigned to work on a particular day, we find that arrests made by officers with high misconduct are 10.5% less likely than the arrests made by no‐misconduct officers to result in charges and are 14% more likely to have a “Not Guilty” outcome. We also analyze two events that increased the transparency of police misconduct through public disclosure of complaint records and find that increased oversight reduces conviction‐less arrests, but with important nuances across misconduct profiles. While no‐ and low‐misconduct officers are responsive to oversight mechanisms, high‐misconduct officers are less responsive.

摘要：鉴于个人的逮捕记录被广泛用于经济和社会结果的评估，减少“无定罪逮捕”（即未导致指控或被告被判无罪的逮捕）是一个重要的政策目标。本文研究了哪些警官在进行无定罪逮捕，以及是否可以通过加强监督来减少这些逮捕。利用芝加哥警察局的轮班值勤日历，获得了某天被指派值勤的警官群体的外生变动数据，我们发现，与没有不当行为记录的警官相比，有严重不当行为记录的警官所进行的逮捕导致被起诉的可能性低10.5%，且更有可能（高出14%）以“无罪”结果告终。此外，我们分析了两次通过公开披露投诉记录来增加警察不当行为透明度的事件，发现加强监督确实减少了无定罪逮捕，但在不同的不当行为特征之间存在重要差异。没有或轻微不当行为记录的警官对监督机制更加敏感，而有严重不当行为记录的警官则对监督的响应程度较低。

资优教育能帮助来自弱势背景的高能力男孩吗？

David Card, Eric Chyn, and Laura Giuliano #33282

Abstract: Boys are less likely than girls to enter college, a gap that is often attributed to a lack of non-cognitive skills such as motivation and self-discipline. We study how being classified as gifted – determined by having an IQ score of 116 or higher – affects college entry rates of disadvantaged children in a large urban school district. For boys with IQ’s around the cutoff, gifted identification raises the college entry rate by 25-30 percentage points – enough to catch up with girls in the same IQ range. In contrast, we find small effects for girls. Looking at course-taking and grade outcomes in middle and high school, we find large effects of gifted status for boys that close most of the gaps with girls, but no detectable effects on standardized tests scores of either gender. Overall, we interpret the evidence as demonstrating that gifted services raise the non-cognitive skills of boys conditional on their cognitive skills, leading to gains in educational attainment。

摘要：男孩进入大学的可能性低于女孩，这一差距通常归因于非认知能力（如动机和自律）的不足。我们研究了在某个大城市学区中，是否被认定为资优生（以智商得分116或以上为标准）会影响弱势儿童进入大学的比率。对于智商接近这个分界线的男孩，资优认定将他们进入大学的比率提高了25-30个百分点——足以使他们赶上智商相同范围女孩的水平。相比之下，我们发现资优认定对女孩的影响较小。通过观察初中和高中的选课情况以及成绩表现，我们发现资优身份对男孩的影响显著，几乎缩小了与女孩之间的差距，但对任何性别的标准化测试分数没有可检测的影响。总体而言，我们将这些证据解释为：资优教育服务在男孩的认知能力基础上提升了他们的非认知能力，从而带来了教育成就的提升。

大学专业限制与学生分层

Zachary Bleemer and Aashish Mehta #33269

Abstract: Underrepresented minority (URM) college students have been steadily earning degrees in relatively less lucrative fields of study since the mid-1990s. A decomposition reveals that this widening gap is principally explained by rising stratification at public research universities, many of which increasingly prevent students with poor introductory grades from declaring popular majors. We investigate these major restriction policies by constructing a novel 50-year dataset covering four public research universities' student transcripts and employing a staggered difference-in-difference design around the implementation of 25 GPA-based restrictions. Restrictions disproportionately filter out less-prepared students with fewer pre-college academic opportunities, decreasing average URM enrollment shares by 20 percent. They do not measurably improve allocative efficiency across majors, departments' wage value-added, or filtered students' educational attainment. Using first-term course enrollments to identify students who intend to earn restricted majors, we find that major restrictions disproportionately lead URM students toward less lucrative majors, explaining nearly all growth in within-institution ethnic stratification since the 1990s.

摘要：自1990年代中期以来，代表性不足的少数族裔（URM）大学生持续在相对收益较低的学科领域中获得学位。分解分析表明，这一差距的扩大主要由公立研究型大学中日益严重的分层现象造成，许多学校越来越多地通过要求学生在入门课程中获得较高成绩来限制其选择热门专业的资格。我们通过构建一个覆盖四所公立研究型大学的学生成绩单的全新50年数据集，并采用分阶段差异中的差异设计，研究了25项基于GPA的专业限制政策的影响。这些限制政策对学术准备较差、在入学前缺乏学术机会的学生产生了不成比例的影响，导致URM学生的平均入学比例下降了20%。这些限制并未显著提高专业之间的分配效率、院系的工资增值或被过滤学生的教育成就。通过分析第一学期课程的选课情况以识别有意选择受限专业的学生，我们发现专业限制政策不成比例地将URM学生引向回报较低的专业，几乎解释了自1990年代以来院校内部种族分层现象的全部增长。

混合商业与个人支出的最佳所得税扣除政策

Jacob Goldin, Sebastian Koehne, and Nicholas Lawson #33270

Abstract: We study the optimal taxation of expenditures that generate income while also serving a consumption function. We characterize the Pareto optimal income tax deduction for such mixed-purpose expenditures within a generalized Atkinson-Stiglitz model. Pareto optimality requires a partial deduction for mixed-purpose expenditures, where the deduction rate depends on the fraction of an expenditure’s marginal benefits that are attributable to income-generation rather than consumption. We extend our results to account for several practical considerations, including potential constraints relating to a uniform deduction rate or a fixed income tax schedule. Our results provide a rationale for non-uniform commodity taxation, distinct from existing models of preference heterogeneity or non-separability.

摘要：我们研究了同时具有收入生成和消费功能的支出的最优税收政策。在广义的阿特金森-斯蒂格利茨（Atkinson-Stiglitz）模型中，我们刻画了此类混合用途支出的帕累托最优所得税扣除政策。帕累托最优性要求对混合用途支出进行部分扣除，其中扣除率取决于支出边际收益中归因于收入生成而非消费的比例。我们进一步将研究结果扩展到多种实际考量，包括与统一扣除率或固定所得税税率相关的潜在限制。我们的研究结果为非统一商品税收提供了合理解释，这与现有的偏好异质性或不可分离性模型的解释有所不同。

通过反应曲线实现威慑：加沙-以色列冲突的实证分析

Eli Berman, Prabin B. Khadka, Danny Klinenberg, and Esteban Klor #33273

Abstract: We use response curves in a repeated game to analyze key aspects of mutual deterrence: escalation, de-escalation, incomplete deterrence, and deterrence by denial. In this approach, episodes of violence are due to interacting response curves, which disincentivize opponents from attacking through both deterrence and compellence. Both sides punish attacks to maintain credibility in future episodes, disincentivizing larger attacks and yielding nonviolent lulls. We empirically estimate those curves using detailed incident data from the Israel-Gaza conflict between 2007 and 2017. Our estimates match the dynamics of the raw data: very frequent episodes of low lethality violent exchange. Response curves are stable and probably Markovian. They exhibit a posture consistent with incomplete deterrence: i.e., episodes de-escalate, but to a violent equilibrium. Israeli missile defense shifts the Gazan response curve to a less aggressive posture, as predicted by theory.

摘要：我们通过重复博弈中的反应曲线分析了相互威慑的关键方面：升级、降级、不完全威慑以及通过拒止实现的威慑。在这种方法中，暴力事件的发生是由于相互作用的反应曲线，这些曲线通过威慑和强制双重机制使对手不敢发动攻击。双方通过惩罚攻击来维持未来冲突中的可信性，从而抑制更大规模的攻击并产生非暴力的间歇期。我们利用2007年至2017年间以色列-加沙冲突的详细事件数据，实证估计了这些反应曲线。我们的估计结果与原始数据的动态相符：暴力交换事件频繁且致命性较低。反应曲线具有稳定性，很可能是马尔可夫性质的。它们表现出与不完全威慑一致的特征：即冲突事件逐渐降级，但达到的是一个暴力平衡。以色列的导弹防御系统将加沙的反应曲线推向了一个较为不激进的姿态，这与理论预测一致。

拨打家园电话：美国囚犯通信服务的采购

Marleen R. Marra, Nathan H. Miller, and Gretchen Sileo #33292

Abstract: Incarcerated individuals in the U.S. purchase goods and services from monopoly vendors selected by their correctional authority. We study telecommunications, which have come under bipartisan scrutiny due to the high prices inmates pay for phone calls. Prospective providers are evaluated on their technical capabilities, the prices they would charge, and the “commission” they would pay the correctional authority. Using data from public records requests, we estimate a first-score auction model with evaluation uncertainty and multi-dimensional bidder heterogeneity. The model indicates that reducing the role of commissions in procurement lowers prices, whereas increasing competition among providers mainly raises commissions. Moreover, recent federal regulations that ban commissions and cap prices likely preserve providers' profitability.

摘要：美国的在押人员从由矫正机构选择的垄断供应商处购买商品和服务。我们研究了通信服务，这一领域因囚犯拨打电话需支付高额费用而受到两党关注。潜在服务提供商的评估依据包括其技术能力、收费价格以及其向矫正机构支付的“佣金”。通过公共记录请求获得的数据，我们估计了一个包含评估不确定性和投标人多维异质性的“第一分拍卖模型”。模型表明，在采购中减少佣金的作用可以降低价格，而增加服务提供商之间的竞争则主要导致佣金的上升。此外，近期联邦法规禁止佣金并对价格设定上限，这可能会在一定程度上保持服务提供商的盈利能力。

困境下的均衡条件

Joshua S. Gans #33304

Abstract: This is a paper in the “economists ruin everything” field. It considers whether Catch-22 situations can persist as an equilibrium phenomenon. Rather than being an arbitrary rule or a set of self-serving beliefs, the focus is on the preferences of Gatekeepers who choose to create such situations in the first place. The base game-theoretic model is of a Catch-22 situation inspired by Heller's famous paradox. We consider a Requester who may be Sane or Insane and a Gatekeeper who must decide whether to grant the Requester's desired outcome or force them into a less desirable one. This is modelled as a game in which the Requester chooses whether to send a request signal before the Gatekeeper decides. We solve for the conditions under which a Catch-22 situation persists as an equilibrium and its efficiency properties. It is demonstrated that Catch-22 situations can arise, but they reflect an efficient response on the part of a Gatekeeper facing asymmetric information. An application to labour markets is also considered.

摘要：这是一篇属于“经济学家毁掉一切”领域的论文，探讨了困境（Catch-22）是否可以作为一种均衡现象持续存在。文章关注的重点并非任意规则或一套自利的信念，而是那些选择创造这种困境的守门人（Gatekeepers）的偏好。基础博弈论模型基于海勒（Heller）著名的悖论构建，描述了一种困境情境。我们考虑一个可能是“理智”（Sane）或“不理智”（Insane）的请求者（Requester），以及一个必须决定是满足请求者愿望还是将其置于不利境地的守门人。这被建模为一个博弈：请求者决定是否发送请求信号，然后守门人作出决策。我们求解了困境作为一种均衡持续存在的条件及其效率属性。研究表明，困境情境确实可能出现，但它反映了守门人在面对信息不对称时的一种有效应对。文章还探讨了困境在劳动市场中的应用。

外包医疗保险的动态财政成本：来自医疗补助的证据

Timothy Layton and Eran Politzer #33302

Abstract: Setting payment rates for providers contracted over multiple periods is a persistent challenge in government procurement. We study the dynamics of fiscal costs following the outsourcing of Medicaid provision to private health insurers by states. We focus on beneficiaries with disabilities who account for a third of Medicaid's spending. Using a national administrative database, we identify county-level private plan enrollment mandates and exploit them as an instrument for individuals' transition to managed care plans. These transitions, while initially slightly reducing fiscal costs, lead to a continuous increase in Medicaid's costs over subsequent years. Counties subject to mandates experience a 9.8% higher cost four years post-mandate compared to those without mandates. "Actuarially sound" endogenous payment rates, that are based on past costs in the market, may serve as mechanism underlying the rising spending.

摘要：为多期合同的供应商设定支付标准一直是政府采购中的一个持续挑战。我们研究了各州将医疗补助（Medicaid）服务外包给私人健康保险公司后财政成本的动态变化，重点关注残疾受益人群体，这一群体占医疗补助支出的三分之一。通过一个全国性行政数据库，我们识别了县级私人计划强制参保政策，并将其作为个人向管理式医疗计划（Managed Care Plans）过渡的工具变量。这些过渡在初期仅略微减少了财政成本，但随后几年却导致医疗补助成本的持续上升。实施强制参保政策的县在政策实施四年后，与未实施强制政策的县相比，成本高出9.8%。基于市场过去成本的“精算合理”（actuarially sound）内生支付标准可能是支出不断上升的潜在机制。

处理相关异质性面板中内生营销组合回归变量的Copula增强均值组估计

Liying Yang, Yi Qian, and Hui Xie #33265

Abstract: Endogeneity is a primary concern when evaluating causal effects using observational panel data. While unit-specific intercepts control for unobserved time-invariant confounders, dependence between (i) regressors (e.g., marketing mix strategy of interests) and the current error term (regressor endogeneity) and/or between (ii) regressors and heterogeneous slope coefficients (slope endogeneity) can introduce significant estimation bias, resulting in misleading inference. This paper proposes a two-stage copula endogeneity correction mean group (2sCOPE-MG) estimator for panel data models, simultaneously addressing both endogeneity concerns. We generalize the IV-free copula control function, employing a general location Gaussian copula that effectively captures the panel structure. The heterogeneous coefficients are treated as unit-specific fixed parameters without distributional assumptions. Consequently, the 2sCOPE-MG estimator allows for arbitrary dependence structure between heterogeneous coefficients and regressors. Unlike Haschka (2022), 2sCOPE-MG requires neither a normal error distribution nor a Gaussian copula regressor-error dependence structure and is more robust, easier to implement, and capable of addressing slope endogeneity. The 2sCOPE-MG estimator is extended to dynamic panels, where intertemporal dependence in the outcome process can be suitably captured. We study its asymptotic properties and provide an analytical variance formula for inference without the need to bootstrap. For short dynamic panels, a Jackknife bias-corrected 2sCOPE-MG estimator is provided to ensure unbiased inference. The usage of the 2sCOPE-MG estimator is demonstrated by Monte Carlo simulations and a marketing mix response application across 21 categories to account for regressor and slope endogeneities in store-panel sales data.

摘要：在使用观测面板数据评估因果效应时，内生性是主要问题之一。尽管单位特定的截距能够控制未观测的时间不变混杂变量，但(1) 回归变量（如营销组合策略）与当前误差项之间的依赖关系（回归变量内生性）以及(2) 回归变量与异质斜率系数之间的依赖关系（斜率内生性）可能会引入显著的估计偏差，导致误导性推断。本文提出了一种适用于面板数据模型的两阶段Copula内生性校正均值组（2sCOPE-MG）估计方法，该方法同时解决了上述两类内生性问题。我们推广了无工具变量（IV-free）的Copula控制函数，采用了一种通用位置高斯Copula，能够有效捕捉面板结构。异质性系数被视为单位特定的固定参数，无需分布假设。因此，2sCOPE-MG估计允许异质性系数与回归变量之间存在任意依赖结构。与Haschka（2022）不同，2sCOPE-MG不需要正态误差分布或高斯Copula回归变量-误差依赖结构，因而更为稳健、易于实施，并能够解决斜率内生性问题。2sCOPE-MG估计方法还被扩展到动态面板模型，可以适当捕捉结果变量过程中的跨期依赖关系。我们研究了其渐近性质，并提供了无需自举抽样（bootstrap）的推断解析方差公式。对于短动态面板，本文还提出了一种Jackknife偏差校正的2sCOPE-MG估计方法，以确保无偏推断。通过蒙特卡罗模拟和一个涵盖21个品类的营销组合响应应用，本文展示了2sCOPE-MG估计方法的实际使用，解决了商店面板销售数据中的回归变量和斜率内生性问题。

非营利医院的治理、行为和首席执行官薪酬

Daniel Kessler and William Wygal #33278

Abstract: We investigate whether two characteristics of non-profit hospital boards – the number of board members and whether the CEO is a board member – are associated with CEO pay and several measures of hospital performance, including price, operating margin, quality, and service to low-income patients. Although the consequences of CEO board membership for for-profit firms have been studied extensively, the consequences for non-profits in general, and non-profit hospitals in particular, have received little attention. Because most hospitals are non-profit and non-profit hospital prices have increased rapidly over the past 20 years, this gap is important. We find a strong positive association between CEO board membership and non-profit hospital prices, operating margins, and CEO pay, with a weaker positive (negative) association between CEO board membership and quality (service to low-income patients). We conclude that CEO board membership contributes to the fundamental agency problem between non-profit hospitals’ management and the hospitals’ intended beneficiaries, consistent with the concerns expressed by Fama and Jensen (1983).

摘要：我们研究了非营利医院董事会的两个特征——董事会成员数量以及首席执行官（CEO）是否为董事会成员——是否与CEO薪酬以及医院绩效的多个衡量指标（包括价格、运营利润率、质量和对低收入患者的服务）相关联。尽管关于CEO担任董事会成员对营利性企业的影响已有广泛研究，但对非营利组织，尤其是非营利医院的影响，却鲜有关注。由于大多数医院为非营利机构，而非营利医院的价格在过去20年中迅速上涨，这一研究空白显得尤为重要。我们的研究发现，CEO担任董事会成员与非营利医院价格、运营利润率和CEO薪酬之间存在显著的正相关关系，而与医院质量（弱正相关）和对低收入患者的服务（负相关）之间的关系较弱。我们得出结论，CEO担任董事会成员加剧了非营利医院管理层与医院预期受益人之间的基本代理问题，这与Fama和Jensen（1983）所表达的担忧一致。

地缘政治与世界贸易体系

Aaditya Mattoo, Michele Ruta, and Robert W. Staiger #33293

Abstract: Until the beginning of this century, the GATT/WTO system worked. Economic research provided a compelling explanation. It showed that if governments maximize the well-being of their own countries broadly defined, GATT/WTO principles would facilitate mutually beneficial cooperation over their trade policy choices. Now heightened geopolitical rivalry seems to have undermined the WTO. A simple transposition of the previous rationalization suggests that geopolitics and trade cooperation are not compatible. We show that this is only true if rivalry eclipses any consideration of own-country well-being. In all other circumstances, there are gains from trade cooperation even with geopolitics. Furthermore, the WTO’s relevance is in question only if it adheres too rigidly to its existing rules and norms. Through measured adaptation to the geopolitical imperative, the WTO can continue to thrive as a forum for multilateral trade cooperation in the age of geopolitics.

摘要：直到本世纪初，关贸总协定（GATT）/世界贸易组织（WTO）体系一直运行良好。经济学研究对此提供了令人信服的解释：研究表明，如果各国政府将本国的整体福祉最大化作为目标，GATT/WTO的原则能够促进各国在贸易政策选择上实现互惠互利的合作。然而，日益激烈的地缘政治竞争似乎削弱了WTO的作用。根据以往理论的简单推演，地缘政治与贸易合作似乎是不相容的。我们发现，只有在竞争完全掩盖了对本国福祉的任何考量时，这种不兼容才成立。在其他所有情况下，即便在地缘政治背景下，贸易合作依然能够带来收益。此外，WTO的重要性只有在其过于僵化地坚持现有规则和规范时才会受到质疑。通过适度调整以适应地缘政治需求，WTO仍然可以在地缘政治时代作为一个多边贸易合作的平台保持活力。

儿童残疾及其对兄弟姐妹心理健康的影响

Janet Currie, N. Meltem Daysal, Mette Gørtz, and Jonas Cuzulan Hirani #33303

Abstract: Mental health disorders are the leading cause of childhood disability worldwide. We examine the impact of a relatively common household stressor on child mental health: the presence of a younger sibling with a physical disability. Using Danish administrative data from families with at least 3 children, we focus on differences between first and second born children in families with and without a 3rd child with a disability. Second-born children in these families spend a larger fraction of their early childhood in families that may be under stress. We find that second-born children are 11 percent more likely to use mental health services than first-born children. There is a 19% increase in psychiatric visits and a 16% increase in use of psychiatric medications. These results are confirmed by matching models.

摘要：心理健康障碍是全球范围内儿童残疾的主要原因之一。我们研究了一个相对常见的家庭压力源对儿童心理健康的影响：家中有一名身体残疾的年幼兄弟姐妹。利用来自丹麦的行政数据，我们聚焦于至少有3个孩子的家庭中，第一胎和第二胎孩子在有无第三个残疾孩子的情况下的差异。在这些家庭中，第二胎孩子在早期童年阶段花费了更多时间生活在可能承受压力的家庭中。研究发现，第二胎孩子比第一胎孩子使用心理健康服务的可能性高出11%。精神科就诊次数增加了19%，精神类药物使用量增加了16%。这些结果通过匹配模型得到了验证。

污染定价的伦理问题

Garth Heutel and J. Paul Kelleher #33300

Abstract: We survey various ethical issues related to the use of pollution pricing. While pollution pricing, for example in the form of Pigouvian taxes or cap-and-trade systems, is widely used in environmental economics modeling, many moral and ethical assumptions lie behind those models, and many ethical objections to pollution pricing are disregarded. We hope this review will be helpful to environmental economists who are regularly engaged in the use of such models, and in economic reasoning more generally, but who are less familiar with their ethical underpinnings and possible implications.

摘要：我们梳理了与污染定价相关的各种伦理问题。尽管污染定价（例如庇古税或限额与交易系统的形式）在环境经济学建模中被广泛应用，但这些模型背后隐藏着许多道德和伦理假设，同时对污染定价的许多伦理反对意见常常被忽视。我们希望本次综述能对经常使用此类模型以及更广泛地运用经济推理的环境经济学家有所帮助，特别是那些对这些模型的伦理基础及其可能影响不太熟悉的学者。

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