【顶刊速递】｜AEJ:Economic Policy《美国经济期刊：经济政策》2024年11月刊目录及摘要

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy covers a range of topics, the common theme being the role of economic policy in economic outcomes. Subject areas include public economics; urban and regional economics; public policy aspects of health, education, welfare and political institutions; law and economics; economic regulation; and environmental and natural resource economics. The journal publishes four issues per year.

《美国经济期刊：经济政策（AEJ:EP）》由美国经济协会（American Economic Association）出版，涵盖一系列主题，共同主题是经济政策在经济结果中的作用，以其高质量的研究成果和深远的学术影响力，在经济学界享有盛誉。学科领域包括公共经济学；城市和区域经济学；卫生、教育、福利和政治机构的公共政策方面；法律和经济学；经济监管；以及环境和自然资源经济学。该杂志每年出版四期。点击文末“阅读原文”可跳转 AEJ:EP 期刊官网。

注：中文摘要为机翻内容，未完全校对。

文章目录

1.Information Frictions and Skill Signaling in the Youth Labor Market  青年劳动力市场的信息摩擦和技能信号传递
Sara B. Heller and Judd B. Kessler

2.High Schools Tailored to Adults Can Help Them Complete a Traditional Diploma and Excel in the Labor Market  为成人量身定制的高中可帮助他们完成传统文凭并在劳动力市场中脱颖而出
Rebecca Brough, David C. Phillips, and Patrick S. Turner

3.Pricing Carbon: Evidence from Expert Recommendations  碳定价：来自专家建议的证据
Moritz A. Drupp, Frikk Nesje, and Robert C. Schmidt

4.Real-Time Pricing and the Cost of Clean Power  实时定价与清洁电力成本
Imelda, Matthias Fripp, and Michael J. Roberts

5.Identity in Court Decision-Making  法院决策中的身份问题
Ulrika Ahrsjö, Susan Niknami, and Mårten Palme

6.The School-to-Prison Pipeline: Long-Run Impacts of School Suspensions on Adult Crime  从学校到监狱：学校停课对成人犯罪的长期影响
Andrew Bacher-Hicks, Stephen B. Billings, and David J. Deming

7.Downward Revision of Investment Decisions after Corporate Tax Hikes  公司税上调后的投资决策下调
Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, Andreas Peichl, and Paul Schüle

8.Managers' Productivity and Recruitment in the Public Sector  公共部门管理人员的生产力与招聘
Pablo Muñoz and Mounu Prem

9.How Do You Say Your Name? Difficult-to-Pronounce Names and Labor Market Outcomes  你的名字怎么说？难以发音的名字与劳动力市场结果
Qi Ge and Stephen Wu

10.Achieving Air Pollution Control Targets with Technology-Aided Monitoring: Better Enforcement or Localized Efforts?  通过技术辅助监测实现空气污染控制目标：加强执法还是局部努力？
Lin Yang, Yatang Lin, Jin Wang, and Fangyuan Peng

11.Administrative Burden and Procedural Denials: Experimental Evidence from SNAP  行政负担和程序性拒绝：来自 SNAP 的实验证据
Eric Giannella, Tatiana Homonoff, Gwen Rino, and Jason Somerville

12.Education and Geographical Mobility: The Role of the Job Surplus  教育与地域流动性：工作岗位过剩的作用
Michael Amior

13.Algorithmic Risk Assessment in the Hands of Humans  法官们的风险评估算法
Megan T. Stevenson and Jennifer L. Doleac

14.The Carrot and the Stick: Bank Bailouts and the Disciplining Role of Board Appointments  胡萝卜加大棒：银行救助与董事会任命的约束作用
Christian Mücke, Loriana Pelizzon, Vincenzo Pezone, and Anjan Thakor

15.Price Sensitivity and Information Barriers to the Take-up of Naloxone  纳洛酮使用的价格敏感性和信息障碍
Mireille Jacobson and David Powell

16.Remote Instruction and Student Mental Health: Swedish Evidence from the Pandemic  远程教学与学生心理健康：来自瑞典的大流行病证据
Evelina Björkegren, Helena Svaleryd, and Jonas Vlachos

中英摘要

This paper provides evidence that information frictions limit the labor market trajectories of US youth. We provide credible skill signals—recommendation letters based on supervisor feedback—to a random subset of 43,409 participants in New York's summer jobs program. Letters increase employment the following year by 3 percentage points (4.5 percent). Earnings effects grow over four years to a cumulative $1,349 (4.9 percent). We find little evidence of increased job search or confidence; instead, signals may help employers better identify successful matches with high-productivity workers. Pulling youth into the labor market can, however, hamper on-time graduation, especially among low-achieving students.

本文提供的证据表明，信息摩擦限制了美国青年的劳动力市场轨迹。我们向纽约暑期工作计划的 43409 名参与者随机子集提供了可信的技能信号——基于主管反馈的推荐信。推荐信使第二年的就业率提高了 3 个百分点（4.5%）。收入效应在四年内增长到累计 1,349 美元（4.9%） 我们几乎没有发现求职或信心增强的证据；相反，信号可能有助于雇主更好地识别成功匹配的高生产率工人。然而，将青少年拉入劳动力市场可能会阻碍他们按时毕业，尤其是成绩较差的学生。

Over 18 million adults in the United States lack a high school credential. While some go on to attain the GED, diplomas are potentially more valuable. A network of high schools helps adults graduate by providing tailored curricula, nonacademic coaching, onsite child care, and transportation. After five years, earnings increase by 38 percent more for graduates than nonenrolling applicants. We address selection by conditioning on preapplication earnings and comparing to students who exit after positive shocks. Much of the wage gains can be accounted for by sectoral switching and evidence on credential completions is consistent with a human capital mechanism.

美国有 1800 多万成年人没有高中学历。虽然有些人获得了普通教育证书，但文凭可能更有价值。高中网络通过提供量身定制的课程、非学术性辅导、现场托儿服务和交通，帮助成年人毕业。五年后，毕业生的收入比未入学申请者高出 38%。我们以申请前的收入为条件，并与受到正向冲击后退出的学生进行比较，从而解决选择问题。大部分的工资增长可以通过行业转换来解释，而关于证书完成情况的证据与人力资本机制是一致的。

We study the variation of carbon price recommendations and their determinants using survey evidence from more than 400 experts across almost 40 countries. We quantify the extent of disagreement and reveal that a majority of experts can agree on short- and medium-term global carbon price levels, and on unilateral carbon price levels in most countries. The majority of recommendations do not exhibit a "free riding" pattern of lower unilateral than global carbon prices. Furthermore, border carbon adjustment facilitates higher unilateral price recommendations. We show how recommendations vary with additional survey responses, and with country and expert characteristics.

我们利用来自近 40 个国家 400 多位专家的调查证据，研究了碳价格建议的变化及其决定因素。我们对分歧的程度进行了量化，发现大多数专家都能就短期和中期全球碳价格水平以及大多数国家的单边碳价格水平达成一致。大多数建议并没有表现出单边碳价格低于全球碳价格的 "搭便车"模式。此外，边界碳调整有利于提出更高的单边价格建议。我们展示了建议如何随其他调查回答以及国家和专家特征而变化。

Solar and wind power are now cheaper than fossil fuels but are intermittent. The extra supply-side variability implies growing benefits of using real-time retail pricing (RTP). We evaluate the potential gains of RTP using a model that jointly solves investment, supply, storage, and demand to obtain a chronologically detailed dynamic equilibrium for the island of Oahu, Hawai'i. We find that, holding demand assumptions fixed, RTP reduces costs in high-renewable systems by roughly 6 to 12 times as much as in fossil systems, markedly lowering the cost of clean energy integration.

太阳能和风能现在比化石燃料便宜，但却时有时无。额外的供应方可变性意味着使用实时零售定价（RTP）的好处越来越多。我们使用一个模型对 RTP 的潜在收益进行了评估，该模型联合解决了投资、供应、存储和需求问题，从而获得了夏威夷瓦胡岛按时间顺序排列的详细动态平衡。我们发现，在需求假设不变的情况下，RTP 可使高可再生能源系统的成本降低约为化石能源系统的 6 到 12 倍，显著降低了清洁能源整合的成本。

We explore the role of identity along multiple dimensions in high-stakes decision-making. Our data contain information about demographic and socioeconomic indicators for defendants and randomly assigned jurors in a Swedish court. Our results show that defendants are 4 to 6 percent less likely to get a prison sentence if judged by one more juror belonging to the same identity-forming group. Moreover, they are given 10 percent shorter prison sentences. Socioeconomic background and demographic attributes are equally important for identity effects, and these effects stem from trials of longer duration and where the defendant is present in the courtroom.

我们从多个维度探讨了身份认同在高风险决策中的作用。我们的数据包含瑞典法院中被告和随机分配的陪审员的人口和社会经济指标信息。我们的结果表明，如果多一名属于同一身份形成群体的陪审员，被告被判入狱的可能性会降低 4% 到 6%。此外，他们的刑期也会缩短 10%。社会经济背景和人口属性对身份认同效应同样重要，这些效应来自于持续时间较长和被告出庭的审判。

Schools must balance student behavior management with the potential negatives of strict discipline. These policies can deter misbehavior but may stigmatize students and expose them to the criminal justice system early. We assess the impact of attending a strict discipline school on achievement, educational attainment, and adult criminal activity. Using data from a boundary change and principal switches, we find that higher suspension rates have significant negative long-term effects. Students at such schools are 15–20 percent more likely to be arrested and incarcerated as adults. Negative impacts on educational attainment are particularly pronounced for males and students of color.

学校必须在学生行为管理与严格纪律的潜在负面影响之间取得平衡。这些政策可以遏制学生的不当行为，但也可能使学生蒙受耻辱，使他们过早地接触刑事司法系统。我们评估了就读纪律严明的学校对成绩、教育程度和成人犯罪活动的影响。利用边界变化和校长更换的数据，我们发现，较高的停学率会产生显著的长期负面影响。这类学校的学生成年后被逮捕和监禁的可能性要高出 15%-20%。对男性和有色人种学生受教育程度的负面影响尤为明显。

This paper estimates the causal effect of corporate tax hikes on firm investment based on more than 1,400 local tax changes. By observing planned and realized investment volumes in a representative sample of German manufacturing firms, we can study how tax hikes induce firms to revise their investment decisions. On average, the share of firms that invest less than previously planned increases by 3 percentage points after a tax hike. This effect is twice as large during recessions.

本文基于 1400 多项地方税收变化，估算了企业增税对企业投资的因果效应。通过观察具有代表性的德国制造业样本企业的计划投资额和实际投资额，我们可以研究税收上调如何促使企业修改投资决策。平均而言，在增税后，投资额低于先前计划的企业比例会增加 3 个百分点。在经济衰退期间，这种影响是原来的两倍。

Governments face many constraints in attracting talented managers to the public sector, which often lacks high-powered incentives. In this paper, we study how a civil service reform in Chile changed the effectiveness of a vital group of public sector managers: school principals. First, we estimate principal effectiveness by using an extension of the canonical teacher value-added model. Then we evaluate the effect of the reform on principal effectiveness using a difference-in-differences approach. We find that public schools appointed more effective managers and improved their students' outcomes after increasing the competitiveness and transparency of their selection process.

政府在吸引优秀管理人员加入公共部门方面面临诸多限制，因为公共部门往往缺乏强有力的激励机制。在本文中，我们将研究智利的公务员制度改革是如何改变公共部门管理者中的一个重要群体——校长——的工作效率的。首先，我们通过对教师增值模型的扩展来估算校长的工作效率。然后，我们采用差分法评估了改革对校长效能的影响。我们发现，在提高遴选过程的竞争性和透明度后，公立学校任命了更有效的管理者，并改善了学生的学习成绩。

We test for labor market discrimination based on an understudied characteristic: name fluency. Analysis of recent economics PhD job candidates indicates that name difficulty is negatively related to the probability of landing an academic or tenure-track position and research productivity of initial institutional placement. Discrimination due to name fluency is also found using experimental data from prior audit studies. Within samples of African Americans (Bertrand and Mullainathan 2004) and ethnic immigrants (Oreopoulos 2011), job applicants with less fluent names experience lower callback rates, and name complexity explains roughly between 10 and 50 percent of ethnic name penalties. The results are primarily driven by candidates with weaker résumés, suggesting that cognitive biases may contribute to the penalty of having a difficult-to-pronounce name.

我们测试了基于一种未被充分研究的特征——姓名流利程度——的劳动力市场歧视。对近期经济学博士求职者的分析表明，姓名难易度与获得学术或终身职位的概率以及初始机构安排的研究生产率呈负相关。利用先前审计研究中的实验数据也发现了因姓名流利度而产生的歧视。在非裔美国人（Bertrand 和 Mullainathan，2004 年）和少数民族移民（Oreopoulos，2011 年）的样本中，姓名不太流畅的求职者的回电率较低，姓名复杂程度大约可以解释 10%到 50%的少数民族姓名惩罚。这些结果主要是由简历较弱的求职者造成的，这表明认知偏差可能是造成姓名难读惩罚的原因之一。

Weak enforcement of environmental regulations remains a global issue due to inadequate monitoring and misaligned incentives. This paper examines the effects of automated monitoring on achieving air pollution control targets amidst China's war on pollution. Utilizing the staggered rollout process and remote-sensing data, we find local governments respond to the advanced monitoring system by strategically targeting areas near monitors, resulting in a 3.2 percent decrease in pollution adjacent to automated monitors compared to areas farther away. Furthermore, we observe heterogeneity in response across cities with varying degrees of preexisting data manipulation and among officials facing different incentives and public pressure.

由于监测不力和激励机制错位，环境法规执行不力仍是一个全球性问题。本文探讨了在中国向污染宣战的过程中，自动监测对实现空气污染控制目标的影响。利用交错的推广过程和遥感数据，我们发现地方政府对先进的监测系统做出了反应，战略性地将监测点附近的区域作为目标，结果与距离较远的区域相比，自动监测点附近的污染减少了 3.2%。此外，我们还观察到不同城市的反应存在异质性，这些城市预先存在不同程度的数据操纵，官员也面临不同的激励机制和公众压力。

Many government program applications result in procedural denials due to administrative burdens associated with applying. We identify the intake interview as a key barrier to take-up of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program and study the effect of an alternative application process designed to reduce burdens. Using a field experiment involving 65,000 Los Angeles applicants, we find that access to flexible interviews initiated by the applicant increases approvals by 6 percentage points, doubles early approvals, and increases long-term participation by over 2 percentage points. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating flexibility when designing program integrity policies to minimize procedural denials.

由于与申请相关的行政负担，许多政府项目的申请都在程序上遭到拒绝。我们发现，受理面谈是阻碍人们接受补充营养援助计划的一个关键因素，并研究了旨在减轻负担的替代申请程序的效果。通过一项涉及 65,000 名洛杉矶申请者的现场实验，我们发现由申请者发起的灵活面谈可使批准率提高 6 个百分点，使早期批准率提高一倍，并使长期参与率提高 2 个百分点以上。我们的研究结果凸显了在设计计划完整性政策时融入灵活性以尽量减少程序性拒绝的重要性。

Better educated workers accept many more long-distance job offers, and relocate quicker following local shocks. I attribute this to a fundamental feature of their labor market experience, unrelated to geography: large returns to job match quality. If a good offer happens to originate from far away, the match surplus is then more likely to justify the cost of moving. This "lubricates" labor markets spatially. Using wage transition data (and a jobs ladder model), I show this can explain the bulk of mobility differentials. These differentials can be closed by subsidizing long-distance matches, and I quantify the cost of doing so.

受教育程度较高的工人接受的远距离工作机会更多，并且在受到当地冲击后迁移得更快。我将此归因于他们劳动力市场经验中与地理位置无关的一个基本特征：工作匹配质量的巨大回报。如果一个好的工作机会恰好来自很远的地方，那么匹配盈余就更有可能证明搬迁的成本是合理的。这在空间上"润滑"了劳动力市场。通过使用工资过渡数据（和工作阶梯模型），我表明这可以解释大部分的流动差异。这些差异可以通过补贴远距离匹配来消除，我将这样做的成本进行了量化。

We evaluate the impacts of adopting algorithmic risk assessments in sentencing. We find that judges changed sentencing practices in response to the risk assessment, but that discretion played a large role in mediating its impact. Judges deviated from the recommendations associated with the algorithm in systematic ways, suggestive of alternative objectives. As a result, risk assessment did not lead to detectable gains in terms of public safety or reduced incarceration rates. Using simulations, we show that strict adherence to the sentencing recommendations associated with the algorithm would have had benefits (less incarceration) but also some costs (increased sentences for youth).

我们评估了在量刑中采用算法风险评估的影响。我们发现，法官们根据风险评估改变了量刑做法，但自由裁量权在其影响中起了很大作用。法官们以系统的方式偏离了与算法相关的建议，这表明他们有其他的目标。因此，风险评估并没有在公共安全或降低监禁率方面带来可察觉的收益。通过模拟，我们发现严格遵守与算法相关的量刑建议会带来好处（减少监禁），但也会付出一些代价（增加对青少年的判刑）。

We empirically examine the Capital Purchase Program (CPP) used by the US government to bail out distressed banks and its implications for regulatory policy. We find strong evidence that a feature of the CPP—the government's ability to appoint independent directors on the board of an assisted bank that missed six dividend payments to the Treasury—had a significant effect on bank behavior. Banks were averse to these appointments—the empirical distribution of missed payments exhibits a sharp discontinuity at five. Director appointments by the Treasury were associated with improved bank performance and lower CEO pay.

我们通过实证研究了美国政府用于救助受困银行的资本购买计划（CPP）及其对监管政策的影响。我们发现，有强有力的证据表明，CPP 的一个特点——政府可以在未向财政部支付六次股息的受援银行董事会中任命独立董事——对银行行为产生了重大影响。银行对这些任命持反感态度——未支付股息的经验分布在 5 次时出现了急剧的不连续性。财政部任命董事与银行业绩改善和首席执行官薪酬降低有关。

We conducted a field experiment that randomized advertisements, advertisement content, and prices across 2,204 counties in the United States to study the impacts on online purchases of naloxone, an opioid overdose reversal drug. Advertising increased website users but only impacted purchases when combined with a price reduction. Messages emphasizing the discreet nature of online sales had no additional impact on purchases. Comparing counties with advertisements featuring a highly discounted price to those featuring the full price, we estimate a price elasticity of demand for online naloxone of −1.3. Price is a significant barrier to online purchases of this lifesaving medication.

我们在美国的 2,204 个县进行了一次实地实验，对广告、广告内容和价格进行了随机调整，以研究纳洛酮（一种阿片类药物过量逆转剂）在线购买的影响。广告增加了网站用户，但只有在与降价相结合时才会影响购买量。强调网上销售谨慎性的信息对购买没有额外影响。将发布高折扣价格广告的县与发布全价广告的县进行比较，我们估计在线纳洛酮的需求价格弹性为-1.3。价格是网上购买这种救命药物的一大障碍。

When COVID-19 reached Sweden, upper-secondary students (ages 17–19) transitioned to remote instruction, while lower-secondary schools (ages 14–16) remained open. We use this setting as a natural experiment to analyze how modes of instruction affect student mental health. We find a 4.4 percent decrease in mental health care use from remote instruction, primarily due to fewer diagnoses and prescriptions for depression and anxiety. The reduction persists throughout the study period; 21 months after the initial closure and 9 months after schools resumed usual operations. This suggests potential mental health benefits from remote instruction, at least in the medium term.

当 COVID-19 抵达瑞典时，高中学生（17-19 岁）过渡到远程教学，而初中学校（14-16 岁）仍然开放。我们利用这一环境作为自然实验，分析教学模式如何影响学生的心理健康。我们发现，远程教学减少了 4.4% 的心理保健使用，这主要是由于抑郁症和焦虑症的诊断和处方减少了。这种减少在整个研究期间都持续存在；在最初关闭后的 21 个月和学校恢复正常运作后的 9 个月都是如此。这表明，至少在中期内，远程教学可能会给心理健康带来益处。