编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（1.20-1.26）共发布 20 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送中间 6 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
劳动力市场中的种族不平等
Patrick Bayer, Kerwin Kofi Charles, and Ellora Derenoncourt #33372
Abstract: In this chapter, we introduce a new framework for studying the evolution of racial inequality in the labor market. The framework encompasses two broad forces – distributional and positional – that affect labor market gaps by racial and ethnic identity over time. We provide long-run results on the evolution of Black-White earnings gaps, including new results for Black and White women, and we review the evidence on historical factors affecting racial gaps. We then provide new results on racial gaps among other groups in the U.S. and discuss the evidence on racial gaps outside the U.S. We then discuss the role of prejudice-based discrimination in driving racial gaps, particularly in the post-civil-rights era, a period when such discrimination has been thought to play a declining role in racial inequality. We describe forces that can amplify existing discrimination, such as monopsony and workers’ perceptions of prejudice in the economy, and we discuss recent literature directly measuring discrimination through expanded audit studies and quasi-experimental variation. We conclude with a discussion of existing and new frontiers on race in the labor market, including stratification, reformulations of prejudice, and understanding the way race has shaped purportedly race-neutral institutions throughout the economy.
摘要：在本章中，我们介绍了一种新的框架，用于研究劳动力市场中种族不平等的演变。该框架包括两种广泛的力量——分配性和位置性——这些力量通过种族和民族身份随时间影响劳动力市场差距。我们提供了关于黑人-白人收入差距的长期结果，包括对黑人和白人女性的新结果，并回顾了影响种族差距的历史因素。接着，我们提供了关于美国其他群体种族差距的新结果，并讨论了美国以外地区的种族差距证据。然后，我们讨论了基于偏见的歧视在推动种族差距中的作用，特别是在民权法案后的时代——这一时期，歧视在种族不平等中的作用被认为有所下降。我们描述了可以放大现有歧视的力量，如单雇主市场和工人对经济中偏见的认知，并讨论了通过扩大审计研究和准实验变异直接衡量歧视的最新文献。最后，我们讨论了关于劳动力市场中种族的现有和新的前沿问题，包括阶层化、偏见的重新表述，以及理解种族如何塑造整个经济中所谓的种族中立制度。
什么是总体福利？福利经济学视角
Charles F. Manski #33376
Abstract: Researchers cannot definitively interpret what the framers of the United States Constitution had in mind when they wrote of the general Welfare. Nevertheless, welfare economics can contribute to policy choice in democracies. Specifying social welfare functions enables coherent analysis, by formalizing mechanisms for preference aggregation and studying the policies they yield. This paper argues that it is essential for welfare economics to adequately express the richness and variety of actual human preferences over social states. I first discuss devices that economists have used in attempts to circumvent or grossly simplify specification of social welfare functions. I next discuss the common welfare economic practice of assuming that personal preferences are homogeneous, consequentialist, and self-centered. I then call for incorporation of broader forms of personal preferences into social welfare functions. Individuals may hold heterogeneous social preferences, being concerned in various ways with the distribution of outcomes in the population. They may hold heterogeneous deontological preferences, placing value on their own actions and the actions of others. They may have preferences for the mechanism used to aggregate preferences in a social welfare function. These potential aspects of personal preference should be recognized in welfare economics.
摘要：研究人员无法明确解读美国宪法起草人写到“总体福利”时的真正意图。然而，福利经济学可以为民主中的政策选择提供贡献。通过明确社会福利函数，福利经济学能够通过形式化的偏好加总机制进行一致的分析，并研究由此产生的政策。本文认为，福利经济学必须充分表达实际人类偏好在社会状态中的丰富性和多样性。首先，我讨论了经济学家在试图规避或大致简化社会福利函数的指定时所使用的工具。接着，我讨论了福利经济学中常见的做法，即假设个人偏好是同质的、结果导向的和自我中心的。然后，我呼吁将更广泛的个人偏好形式纳入社会福利函数中。个人可能拥有异质化的社会偏好，以不同方式关注人口中结果的分配。他们可能拥有异质化的义务论偏好，重视自己和他人的行为。他们可能对用于聚合偏好的机制有偏好。这些潜在的个人偏好方面应当在福利经济学中得到承认。
美国人生历史
David Lagakos, Stelios Michalopoulos, and Hans-Joachim Voth #33373
Abstract: What does it take to live a meaningful life? We exploit a unique corpus of over 1,400 life narratives of older Americans collected by a team of writers during the 1930s. We combine detailed human readings with large language models (LLMs) to extract systematic information on critical junctures, sources of meaning, and overall life satisfaction. Under specific conditions, LLMs can provide responses to complex questions that are indistinguishable from those of human readers, effectively passing a version of the Turing Test. We find that sources of life meaning are more varied than previous research suggested, underlining the importance of work and community contributions in addition to family and close relationships (emphasized by earlier work). The narratives also highlight gendered disparities, with women disproportionately citing adverse family events, such as the loss of a parent, underscoring their role as keepers of the kin. Our research expands our understanding of human flourishing during a transformative period in American history and establishes a robust and scalable framework for exploring subjective well-being across diverse historical and cultural contexts.
摘要：要过上有意义的生活需要什么？我们利用一份独特的文献，包含了由一组作家在1930年代收集的超过1,400篇美国老年人的生活叙事。我们结合了详细的人类阅读和大型语言模型（LLMs），提取关于关键转折点、生活意义来源和总体生活满意度的系统信息。在特定条件下，LLMs能够提供与人类读者无法区分的复杂问题回答，实际上通过了图灵测试的一个版本。我们发现，生活意义的来源比以往研究所指出的更加多样，强调了工作和社区贡献的重要性，除了家庭和亲密关系（早期的研究强调了这一点）。这些叙事还突显了性别差异，女性更多地提到不幸的家庭事件，例如失去父母，强调了她们作为家庭的守护者的角色。我们的研究扩展了我们对美国历史转型时期人类繁荣的理解，并建立了一个强大且可扩展的框架，用于探索在不同历史和文化背景下的主观幸福感。
买方和卖方权力的福利效应
Mert Demirer and Michael Rubens #33371
Abstract: In this paper, we provide a theoretical characterization of the welfare effects of buyer and seller power in vertical relations and introduce an empirical approach for quantifying the contributions of each channel to deadweight loss. Our model accommodates both monopsony distortions from buyer power and double-marginalization distortions from seller power. Rather than imposing a specific form of vertical conduct, we allow it to arise endogenously based on model primitives. We show that the relative elasticity of upstream supply and downstream demand is the key determinant of whether buyer or seller power creates distortions. Applying our framework to coal procurement by power plants in Texas, we find that 83% of the distortion comes from the monopoly power of coal mines, with the remainder attributed to the monopsony power of power plants.
摘要：在本文中，我们提供了买方和卖方权力在垂直关系中对福利效应的理论表征，并引入了一种实证方法来量化每个渠道对无谓损失的贡献。我们的模型兼顾了买方权力造成的单买市场扭曲和卖方权力造成的双重边际化扭曲。我们没有强加特定形式的垂直行为，而是允许它根据模型的基本要素内生地产生。我们表明，上游供应和下游需求的相对弹性是决定买方或卖方权力是否会产生扭曲的关键因素。将我们的框架应用于德克萨斯州电厂的煤炭采购时，我们发现，83%的扭曲来自煤矿的垄断权力，其余部分归因于电厂的单买市场权力。
随机对照试验中的均值回归：对项目定位和异质性处理效应的影响
Marcella Alsan, John Cawley, Joseph J. Doyle Jr., and Nicholas Skelley #33369
Abstract: Eligibility criteria for interventions can induce an Ashenfelter Dip, and subsequent mean-reversion may result in improvement over time even absent the intervention. We investigate these dynamics for a food-as-medicine program to treat diabetes, where eligibility required elevated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Both treatment and control groups experienced significant improvements in HbA1c, resulting in an estimated null effect. When we predict improvement using baseline characteristics, we find that subjects unlikely to improve on their own appear to benefit from the program. Our findings have implications for program targeting and estimating heterogeneous treatment effects.
摘要：干预的资格标准可能会引发Ashenfelter Dip，随后的均值回归可能导致即使没有干预，随着时间的推移，情况也会有所改善。我们研究了这些动态在一个用于治疗糖尿病的“食物即药物”项目中的表现，该项目的资格要求是血红蛋白A1c（HbA1c）升高。处理组和对照组的HbA1c均显著改善，导致估计的无效效应。当我们使用基准特征预测改善时，我们发现那些自己不太可能改善的受试者似乎从该项目中受益。我们的研究结果对项目定位和估计异质性处理效应具有重要意义。
单方面脱碳是否能够自负盈亏？
Adrien Bilal and Diego R. Känzig #33364
Abstract: This paper shows that unilateral decarbonization pays for itself in large economies. We estimate economic damages from global temperature shocks and combine them with a climate-economy model to construct Domestic Costs of Carbon: $226 per ton for the United States and $216 per ton for the European Union. When compared to marginal abatement costs, these values imply over 80% unilateral decarbonization for both economies, an order of magnitude larger than under conventional damages estimated based on local temperature.
摘要：本文表明，在大型经济体中，单方面脱碳是能够自负盈亏的。我们估算了全球温度冲击带来的经济损失，并将其与气候经济模型结合，构建了碳的国内成本：美国为每吨226美元，欧盟为每吨216美元。与边际减排成本相比，这些数值意味着这两个经济体的单方面脱碳程度超过80%，这一数值比基于当地温度估算的传统损害要大一个数量级。
往期精选：
