【顶刊速递】｜The Economic Journal《经济杂志》2025年2月刊目录及摘要

文章目录

1.Productivity Growth and Workers’ Job Transitions: Evidence from Census Microdata 
生产力增长与工人工作转换：来自人口普查微观数据的证据
Elías Albagli, Mario Canales, Chad Syverson, Matías Tapia, Juan Wlasiuk

2.Returns to Labour Mobility   
劳动流动性的回报
Isaac Baley, Lars Ljungqvist, Thomas J Sargent

3.Measuring Social Benefits of Media Coverage: How Coverage of Climate Change Affects Behaviour   
衡量媒体覆盖的社会利益：气候变迁报道如何影响行为
Graham Beattie

4.Lobbying for Globalisation   
全球化游说
Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Paola Conconi, Mathieu Parenti

5.Score Disclosure   
分数披露
Levent Celik, Mikhail Drugov

6.Who's Afraid of Policy Experiments?   
谁害怕政策实验？
Robert Dur, Arjan Non, Paul Prottung, Benedetta Ricci

7.Strategic Conformity or Anti-Conformity to Avoid Punishment and Attract Reward   
为了避免惩罚和吸引奖励的战略性从众或反从众
Fabian Dvorak, Urs Fischbacher, Katrin Schmelz

8.Technology Adoption, Mortality and Population Dynamics   
技术采纳、死亡率和人口动态
John Hejkal, B Ravikumar, Guillaume Vandenbroucke

9.Television and Academic Achievement: Evidence from the Digital Television Transition in the UK   
电视与学术成就：来自英国数字电视过渡的证据
Adrián Nieto Castro

10.How do Workers Adjust to Robots? Evidence from China   
工人如何适应机器人？来自中国的证据
Osea Giuntella, Yi Lu, Tianyi Wang

11.The Dark Side of Infrastructure: Roads, Repression and Land in Authoritarian Paraguay   
基础设施的阴暗面：道路、镇压和土地在威权主义巴拉圭
Felipe González, Josepa Miquel-Florensa, Mounu Prem, Stéphane Straub

文章摘要

1.Productivity Growth and Workers’ Job Transitions: Evidence from Census Microdata   
生产力增长与工人工作转换：来自人口普查微观数据的证据
Elías Albagli, Mario Canales, Chad Syverson, Matías Tapia, Juan Wlasiuk

We use administrative data for Chile to provide novel insights on the relationship between job transitions and productivity differentials and quantify how different groups contribute to aggregate reallocation. While on average workers move to more productive firms, almost half of transitions are ‘down the productivity ladder’. Reallocation gains are mostly explained by a narrow subset of transitions: young, high-skilled workers generate the lion’s share of aggregate productivity gains. Workers with high turnover contribute proportionally the least. Therefore, while job reallocation yields a net benefit, it hides massive and heterogeneous gross flows, with many appearing to add little to aggregate efficiency.

我们利用智利的行政数据，对工作转换与生产率差异之间的关系提出了新的见解，并量化了不同群体对总体重新分配的贡献。虽然平均而言，工人会跳槽到生产力更高的企业，但几乎一半的跳槽是"生产力阶梯式下降"的。重新分配的收益主要来自于一小部分转岗：年轻的高技能工人创造了总生产率收益的绝大部分。高流动率工人的贡献最小。因此，虽然工作重新分配产生了净收益，但却隐藏着大量不同的总流量，其中许多似乎对总体效率的提高作用甚微。

2.Returns to Labour Mobility   
劳动流动性的回报
Isaac Baley, Lars Ljungqvist, Thomas J Sargent

Returns to labour mobility have too often escaped the attention they deserve as conduits of important forces in macro-labour models. These returns are shaped by calibrations of productivity processes that use theoretical perspectives and data sources from (i) labour economics and (ii) industrial organisation. By investigating earlier prominent studies, we conclude that the focus on firm size dynamics and shocks intermediated through neo-classical production functions in (ii) yields large returns to labour mobility that are robust to parameter perturbations. In contrast, the reliance on statistics in labour economics to calibrate per-worker productivity processes in (i) can give rise to fragilities in the sense that parameter perturbations that generate similar targeted statistics can have very different implications for returns to labour mobility.

劳动力流动的回报作为宏观劳动力模型中重要力量的渠道，往往得不到应有的重视。这些回报是通过对生产力过程的校准形成的，这些校准使用了来自（i）劳动经济学和（ii）产业组织的理论观点和数据来源。通过对早期著名研究的调查，我们得出结论，在（ii）中通过新古典生产函数对企业规模动态和冲击的关注，会产生劳动力流动的巨大回报，而这种回报对参数扰动是稳健的。相反，依赖劳动经济学中的统计数据来校准(i)中的人均劳动生产率过程可能会产生脆弱性，即产生类似目标统计数据的参数扰动会对劳动力流动回报产生截然不同的影响。

3.Measuring Social Benefits of Media Coverage: How Coverage of Climate Change Affects Behaviour   
衡量媒体覆盖的社会利益：气候变迁报道如何影响行为
Graham Beattie

It has been well documented that beliefs and actions can be affected by media coverage. In this paper, I study the effect of newspaper coverage of climate change on individual driving behaviour. I construct a measure of the tone of coverage based on comparisons between environmental and sceptical texts. I then use this measure, along with detailed information about driving patterns, to test whether households’ travel decisions are affected by the coverage that they have recently received. I find that coverage of climate change that uses an environmental tone causes households to make environmentally friendly travel decisions, particularly when good substitutes are available. Since driving is a major source of carbon emissions, these results illustrate a potential externality of media coverage.

已有充分记录表明，信仰和行为可能受到媒体报道的影响。在本文中，我研究了报纸对气候变化的报道对个人驾驶行为的影响。我基于环境和怀疑论文本之间的比较构建了报道基调的度量。然后，我使用这个度量，以及关于驾驶模式的详细信息，来测试家庭的旅行决策是否受到他们最近收到的报道的影响。我发现，使用环境基调的气候变化报道导致家庭做出环保的旅行决策，特别是当有好的替代品可用时。由于驾驶是碳排放的主要来源，这些结果展示了媒体报道的潜在外部性。

4.Lobbying for Globalisation   
全球化游说
Michael Blanga-Gubbay, Paola Conconi, Mathieu Parenti

Using detailed information from lobbying reports filed under the Lobbying Disclosure Act, we construct a unique dataset that allows us to identify which firms lobby on free trade agreements negotiated by the United States, their positions (in favour or against) and their lobbying efforts on the ratification of each trade agreement. Using this dataset, we show that lobbying on free trade agreements is dominated by large multinational firms, which are in favour of these agreements. On the intensive margin, we exploit exogenous variation across free trade agreements to show that individual firms put more effort into supporting agreements that generate larger potential gains—larger improvements in their access to foreign consumers and suppliers and smaller increases in domestic competition—and that are more likely to be opposed by politicians. To rationalise these findings, we develop a new model of endogenous lobbying on trade agreements. In this model, heterogeneous firms select into trade and choose whether and how much to spend lobbying on the ratification of a free trade agreement, and politicians may be biased in favour of or against the agreement.

利用根据《游说披露法》提交的游说报告的详细信息，我们构建了一个独特的数据集，使我们能够识别哪些公司游说美国谈判的自由贸易协定，他们的立场（支持或反对）以及他们对每项贸易协定批准的游说努力。利用这个数据集，我们展示了自由贸易协定的游说由支持这些协定的大型跨国公司主导。在密集边际上，我们利用自由贸易协定之间的外生变化来展示，个别公司更努力地支持那些产生更大潜在收益的协定——在他们接触外国消费者和供应商方面的更大改进以及国内竞争的较小增加——并且更有可能受到政治家的反对。为了合理化这些发现，我们开发了一个新的贸易协定内生游说模型。在这个模型中，异质性公司选择进入贸易，并选择是否以及花费多少游说批准自由贸易协定，政治家可能对协定有偏见，支持或反对。

5.Score Disclosure   
分数披露
Levent Celik, Mikhail Drugov

We study verifiable disclosure by a seller when the product has multiple quality attributes. We identify an equilibrium in which, for some qualities, the seller discloses its score—the average of the qualities—and does not reveal anything else. This occurs when its score is sufficiently high or when the qualities are sufficiently similar and the score is not too low. Otherwise, the seller fully discloses. While full unravelling is still an equilibrium, it is dominated by this partial score disclosure equilibrium in terms of ex ante as well as ex post profits.

我们研究了当产品具有多个质量属性时，卖家的可验证披露。我们识别了一个均衡，在该均衡中，对于某些质量，卖家披露其分数——质量的平均值——并不透露其他任何信息。当其分数足够高，或者质量足够相似且分数不太低时，就会发生这种情况。否则，卖家会完全披露。尽管完全披露仍然是一个均衡，但在事前和事后利润方面，它被这种部分分数披露均衡所主导。

6.Who's Afraid of Policy Experiments?   
谁害怕政策实验？
Robert Dur, Arjan Non, Paul Prottung, Benedetta Ricci

In many public policy areas, randomised policy experiments can greatly contribute to our knowledge of the effects of policies and can thus help to improve public policy. However, policy experiments are not very common. This paper studies whether a lack of appreciation for policy experiments among voters may be the reason for this. Collecting survey data representative of the Dutch electorate, we find clear evidence contradicting this view. Voters strongly support policy experimentation and particularly so when they do not hold a strong opinion about the policy. In a subsequent survey experiment among a selected group of Dutch politicians, we find that politicians conform their expressed opinion about policy experiments to what we tell them the actual opinion of voters is.

在许多公共政策领域，随机政策实验可以极大地增进我们对政策效果的了解，从而帮助改善公共政策。然而，政策实验并不常见。本文研究了选民对政策实验缺乏欣赏可能是这一现象的原因。收集代表荷兰选民的调查数据，我们发现有明确的证据与这一观点相矛盾。选民强烈支持政策实验，特别是当他们对政策没有强烈意见时。在随后对一组荷兰政治家的调查实验中，我们发现政治家根据我们告诉他们选民的实际意见来调整他们对政策实验的表达意见。

7.Strategic Conformity or Anti-Conformity to Avoid Punishment and Attract Reward   
为了避免惩罚和吸引奖励的战略性从众或反从众
Fabian Dvorak, Urs Fischbacher, Katrin Schmelz

We provide systematic insights on strategic conformist—as well as anti-conformist—behaviour in situations where people are evaluated, i.e., where an individual has to be selected for reward (e.g., promotion) or punishment (e.g., layoffs). To affect the probability of being selected, people may attempt to fit in or stand out in order to affect the chances of being noticed or liked by the evaluator. We investigate such strategic incentives for conformity or anti-conformity experimentally in three different domains: facts, taste and creativity. To distinguish conformity and anti-conformity from independence, we introduce a new experimental design that allows us to predict participants’ independent choices based on transitivity. We find that the prospect of punishment increases conformity, while the prospect of reward reduces it. Anti-conformity emerges in the prospect of reward, but only under specific circumstances. Similarity-based selection (i.e., homophily) is much more important for the evaluators’ decisions than salience. We also employ a theoretical approach to illustrate strategic key mechanisms of our experimental setting.

我们提供了在人们被评估的情况下战略性从众——以及反从众——行为的系统性见解，即在个人必须被选中以获得奖励（例如，晋升）或惩罚（例如，裁员）的情况下。为了影响被选中的概率，人们可能会尝试融入或脱颖而出，以影响被评估者注意或喜欢的机会。我们在三个不同的领域：事实、品味和创造力中，通过实验调查这种战略性激励对从众或反从众的影响。为了区分从众和反从众与独立性，我们引入了一种新的实验设计，允许我们根据传递性预测参与者的独立选择。我们发现，惩罚的前景增加了从众行为，而奖励的前景减少了它。在奖励的前景下，反从众行为出现了，但只在特定情况下。基于相似性的选择（即同质性）对于评估者的决策比显著性更重要。我们还采用了理论方法来说明我们实验设置中的战略关键机制。

8.Technology Adoption, Mortality and Population Dynamics   
技术采纳、死亡率和人口动态
John Hejkal, B Ravikumar, Guillaume Vandenbroucke

We develop a quantitative theory of mortality and population dynamics, emphasising individuals’ decisions to reduce their mortality by adopting better health technology. Expanded use of this technology reduces the cost of adoption and confers a dynamic externality by increasing the future number of individuals who use the technology. Our model generates a diffusion curve whose shape dictates the pace of mortality reduction. The model explains historical trends in mortality rates and life expectancies at various ages and population dynamics in Western Europe. Unlike Malthusian theories based solely on income, ours is consistent with the observed disconnect between mortality and income. Unlike Beckerian theories of fertility, ours accounts for the observed acceleration in population.

我们发展了一个关于死亡率和人口动态的定量理论，强调个人通过采纳更好的健康技术来减少死亡率的决策。这种技术的扩展使用降低了采纳成本，并通过增加未来使用该技术个体的数量，赋予了动态外部性。我们的模型生成了一个扩散曲线，其形状决定了死亡率降低的速度。该模型解释了西欧不同年龄的死亡率和预期寿命的历史趋势以及人口动态。与仅基于收入的马尔萨斯理论不同，我们的理论与观察到的死亡率和收入之间的脱节是一致的。与贝克尔的生育理论不同，我们的模型解释了观察到的人口增长加速。

9.Television and Academic Achievement: Evidence from the Digital Television Transition in the UK   
电视与学术成就：来自英国数字电视过渡的证据
Adrián Nieto Castro

This paper exploits exogenous variation in the transition date from an analogue to digital television signal in the UK across more than 32,000 geographical units to examine the causal impact of television on academic performance and potential mechanisms. Using a large administrative dataset on the universe of students in public education in England, I show that the switchover increased pupil test scores and that the effect is driven by economically disadvantaged students. Using TV market data and a child survey dataset, I investigate possible mechanisms. I show that the digital transition considerably increased TV viewing time and displaced forms of socialisation associated with risky behaviour for disadvantaged children.

本文利用英国超过32,000个地理单元中从模拟电视信号过渡到数字电视信号的外生变化日期，来检验电视对学术表现的因果影响和潜在机制。使用英格兰公共教育系统中所有学生的大行政数据集，我展示了转换增加了学生的考试成绩，并且这种影响是由经济弱势学生驱动的。利用电视市场数据和儿童调查数据集，我调查了可能的机制。我展示了数字过渡显著增加了电视观看时间，并取代了与弱势儿童的危险行为相关的社会化形式。

10.How do Workers Adjust to Robots? Evidence from China   
工人如何适应机器人？来自中国的证据
Osea Giuntella, Yi Lu, Tianyi Wang

We analyse the effects of exposure to industrial robots on labour market adjustments, exploring longitudinal household data from China. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in robot exposure led to a decline in labour force participation (−1%), employment (−7%) and hourly earnings (−8%) of Chinese workers. At the same time, among those who kept working, robot exposure increased the number of hours worked by 8%. These effects were concentrated among the less educated and larger among male, prime-age and older workers. We also find that more exposed workers increased their participation in technical training and were significantly more likely to retire earlier.

我们分析了接触工业机器人对劳动力市场调整的影响，探索了来自中国的纵向家庭数据。我们发现，机器人暴露量增加一个标准差，导致了中国工人劳动力参与率下降（-1%），就业率（-7%）和小时收入（-8%）。与此同时，在那些继续工作的人中，机器人暴露增加了工作小时数8%。这些影响集中在受教育程度较低的人群中，在男性、壮年和老年工人中更为明显。我们还发现，更多暴露的工人增加了他们参与技术培训，并显著更有可能提前退休。

11.The Dark Side of Infrastructure: Roads, Repression and Land in Authoritarian Paraguay   
基础设施的阴暗面：道路、镇压和土地在威权主义巴拉圭
Felipe González, Josepa Miquel-Florensa, Mounu Prem, Stéphane Straub

Transportation infrastructure is associated with economic development, but it can also be used for social control and to benefit the governing elite. We explore the connection between the construction of road networks, state-led repression and illegal land allocations in the longest dictatorship in South America: Alfredo Stroessner’s military regime in Paraguay. Using novel panel data from the Truth and Reconciliation Commission, we show that proximity to newly constructed roads facilitated state-led repression, illegal allocation of agricultural plots to dictatorship allies and hindered sustainable economic development in the following decades.

交通基础设施与经济发展相关联，但它也可以被用于社会控制和造福执政精英。我们探索了在南美洲最长的独裁统治中，道路网络建设、国家主导的镇压和非法土地分配之间的联系：巴拉圭阿尔弗雷多·斯特罗森纳的军事政权。利用真相与和解委员会的新面板数据，我们展示了接近新建道路便利了国家主导的镇压，非法分配农业地块给独裁政权的盟友，并在接下来的几十年中阻碍了可持续的经济发展。