编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（1.13-1.19）共发布 16 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送前 5 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
前苏联国家中青少年的心理健康
David G. Blanchflower and Alex Bryson #33356
Abstract: We report on the wellbeing of the young in 31 Ex-Soviet Republics located in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. We find no evidence of the decline in the mental health of the young relative to older people which characterizes Western Europe and English-speaking advanced economies. The mental health of the young in ex-Soviet republics is stable relative to older people across various surveys including the Gallup World Poll, the Eurobarometers, the World Values Surveys and the European Social Survey, as well as in surveys from the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development and UNICEF. However, there are two exceptions. A 2023 Flash Eurobarometer Mental Health survey conducted by the European Commission shows unhappiness declines in age in every EU member country including 11 in Eastern Europe. A similar finding emerges in our analysis of the web-based Global Minds surveys of 2020-2024 in 9 former Soviet republics. Youngster ages 18-24 in these surveys are especially unhappy. Furthermore, in keeping with research on children aged 15-16 in the PISA surveys in other countries, we find life satisfaction of these school children in ex-Soviet Republics declined over the period 2015-2022 and that, among this group, time spent on digital devices was associated with lower happiness.
摘要：我们对位于东欧和中亚的31个前苏联共和国的年轻人福祉进行了研究。研究发现，与西欧和以英语为主的发达经济体所表现出的年轻人相较于老年人心理健康下降的趋势不同，在前苏联共和国中，年轻人的心理健康相较于老年人保持稳定。这一趋势在包括盖洛普世界民调、欧洲晴雨表、世界价值观调查以及欧洲社会调查在内的多个调查中得到了证实，同时也包括欧洲复兴开发银行和联合国儿童基金会的相关调查。然而，也存在两个例外。2023年，由欧盟委员会进行的一项“快速欧洲晴雨表心理健康调查”显示，在所有欧盟成员国（包括东欧地区的11个国家）中，随着年龄增长，幸福感逐渐下降。此外，我们对2020-2024年间在9个前苏联共和国中进行的“全球思想”（Global Minds）网络调查的分析也得出了类似的结果。这些调查中，18至24岁的年轻人尤其感到不幸福。此外，根据PISA调查对其他国家15至16岁儿童的研究，我们发现2015年至2022年间，前苏联共和国中这一年龄段的学生生活满意度有所下降。同时，在这一群体中，使用数字设备的时间与幸福感较低之间存在相关性。
Technology Sophistication Across Establishments
各类企业的技术成熟度分析
Diego A. Comin, Xavier Cirera, and Marcio Cruz #33358
Abstract: This paper examines technology sophistication in establishments. To comprehensively measure technology sophistication, we create a grid that covers key business functions and the technologies used to conduct them. Analyzing data from over 21,000 establishments in 15 countries, we find that the most widely used technology is usually not the most sophisticated available in the business function. There is significant variation in technology sophistication across and within countries, explaining 31% of productivity dispersion and over half of the agricultural productivity gap. The sophistication of widely used technologies is more relevant for productivity than the most advanced technologies. More sophisticated technologies are appropriate for both developed and developing countries.
摘要：本文研究了各类企业的技术成熟度。为了全面衡量技术成熟度，我们创建了一个涵盖关键业务功能及其所使用技术的网格。通过分析来自15个国家的超过21,000家企业的数据，我们发现，在业务功能中最广泛使用的技术通常不是最先进的技术。不同国家之间以及同一国家内部的技术成熟度差异显著，这种差异可以解释31%的生产率差距，以及超过一半的农业生产率差距。研究表明，广泛使用的技术的成熟度对生产率的影响比最先进技术更为重要。更高水平的技术成熟度对于发达国家和发展中国家都适用。
镀金时代及其延续：美国历史中精英财富的持久性
Priti Kalsi and Zachary Ward #33355
Abstract: Is the top tail of wealth a set of fixed individuals or is there substantial turnover? We estimate upper-tail wealth dynamics during the Gilded Age and beyond, a time of rapid wealth accumulation and concentration in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Using various wealth proxies and data tracking tens of millions of individuals, we find that most extremely wealthy individuals drop out of the top tail within their lifetimes. Yet, elite wealth still matters. We find a non-linear association between grandparental wealth and being in the top 1%, such that having a rich grandparent exponentially increases the likelihood of reaching the top 1%. Still, over 90% of the grandchildren of top 1% wealth grandfathers did not achieve that level.
摘要：财富金字塔顶端是由一群固定的个人组成，还是存在显著的更替？我们估计了镀金时代及其之后财富金字塔顶端的动态变化，这一时期指的是19世纪末到20世纪初财富迅速积累和集中的阶段。通过使用各种财富代理指标以及追踪数千万个体的数据，我们发现，大多数极其富有的个人在其一生中会从财富金字塔顶端退出。然而，精英财富仍然具有重要影响。我们发现祖父母财富与进入财富金字塔顶端1%的可能性之间存在非线性关联，拥有富有的祖父母会显著提高进入顶端1%的可能性。但即便如此，超过90%的顶端1%财富祖父的孙辈未能达到这一财富水平。
基于差异协变量分类的预测：以医疗风险评估中的种族/族裔分类为例
Charles F. Manski, John Mullahy, and Atheendar Venkataramani #33350
Abstract: A common practice in evidence-based decision-making uses estimates of conditional probabilities P(y|x) obtained from research studies to predict outcomes y on the basis of observed covariates x. Given this information, decisions are then based on the predicted outcomes. Researchers commonly assume that the predictors used in the generation of the evidence are the same as those used in applying the evidence: i.e., the meaning of x in the two circumstances is the same. This may not be the case in real-world settings. Across a wide-range of settings, ranging from clinical practice to education policy, demographic attributes (e.g., age, race, ethnicity) are often classified differently in research studies than in decision settings. This paper studies identification in such settings. We propose a formal framework for prediction with what we term differential covariate classification (DCC). Using this framework, we analyze partial identification of probabilistic predictions and assess how various assumptions influence the identification regions. We apply the findings to a range of settings, focusing mainly on differential classification of individuals' race and ethnicity in clinical medicine. We find that bounds on P(y|x) can be wide, and the information needed to narrow them available only in special cases. These findings highlight an important problem in using evidence in decision making, a problem that has not yet been fully appreciated in debates on classification in public policy and medicine.
摘要：在基于证据的决策中，一个常见的做法是利用研究中得到的条件概率P(y|x)来根据观察到的协变量x预测结果y。基于这些预测结果，人们做出相应决策。研究人员通常假设，用于生成证据的预测变量与应用这些证据时使用的预测变量是相同的，即x的含义在这两种情况下是一致的。然而，在现实世界的环境中，这种假设可能并不成立。在从临床实践到教育政策的广泛领域中，人口属性（如年龄、种族、族裔）在研究中和实际决策中经常被不同地分类。本文研究了在这种情境下的识别问题。我们提出了一个形式化框架，用于处理我们称之为差异协变量分类（Differential Covariate Classification, DCC）的预测问题。在这一框架下，我们分析了概率预测的部分识别问题，并评估了各种假设对识别区域的影响。我们将研究结果应用于多个场景，主要聚焦于临床医学中个体种族和族裔的差异分类问题。研究发现，条件概率P(y∣x) 的界限可能很宽，而缩小这些界限所需的信息仅在特殊情况下可用。这些发现揭示了在决策中使用证据的一个重要问题，这一问题在公共政策和医学的分类争论中尚未得到充分认识。
创业与零工经济：来自美国税务申报的数据证据
Matthew R. Denes, Spyridon Lagaras, and Margarita Tsoutsoura #33347
Abstract: Platform intermediation of goods and services has considerably transformed the U.S. economy. We use administrative data on U.S. tax returns to study the role of the gig economy on entrepreneurship. We find that gig workers are more likely to become entrepreneurs, particularly those who are lower income, younger, and benefit from flexibility. We track all newly created firms and show that gig workers start firms in similar industries as their gig experience, which are less likely to survive and demonstrate higher performance. Overall, our findings suggest on-the-job learning promotes entrepreneurial entry and shifts the types of firms started by entrepreneurs.
摘要：平台对商品和服务的中介作用极大地改变了美国经济。我们利用美国税务申报的行政数据，研究了零工经济对创业的影响。研究发现，零工工作者更有可能成为企业家，尤其是那些低收入、年轻并从灵活性中获益的群体。我们追踪了所有新创立的企业，发现零工工作者倾向于在与其零工经验相似的行业中创办企业，这些企业存续率较低，但表现出更高的绩效。总体而言，我们的研究表明，在职学习能够促进创业，并改变创业者所创立企业的类型。
往期精选：
