编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（1.6-1.12）共发布 19 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送前 6 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
通过广延边际视角看新凯恩斯主义经济学
Saki Bigio and Akira Ishide #33332
Abstract: This paper reformulates the New Keynesian model to incorporate output adjustments through the extensive margin. Shifting from adjustments through the intensive to the extensive employment margin, the model introduces predetermined output, altering key properties of the New Keynesian framework. First, the Taylor principle is inverted: stability is achieved when nominal rates respond less than one-for-one with inflation. Second, the model significantly alters the output responses to changes in monetary policy. We argue that this represents a challenge and an opportunity for the literature. Sticky information allows the model to correct the sign of impulse responses.
摘要：本文重新构建了新凯恩斯主义模型，将广延边际的产出调整纳入模型框架。从通过劳动的密集边际调整转向广延边际调整，模型引入了预先确定的产出，从而改变了新凯恩斯主义框架的关键属性。首先，泰勒原则被颠倒：当名义利率对通胀的反应小于一比一时，模型才表现出稳定性。其次，模型显著改变了产出对货币政策变化的反应。我们认为，这既对相关文献提出了挑战，也提供了新的研究机遇。同时，引入黏性信息可以使模型修正冲击响应的符号，从而更贴近实际经济现象。
两百年来的代际流动
Ran Abramitzky, Leah Platt Boustan, and Tamar Matiashvili #33330
Abstract: This paper provides an overview of recent empirical and methodological advances in the study of historical intergenerational mobility trends, with a focus on key measurement challenges. These advances are made possible by the recent digitization of historical censuses and new methods of historical record-linking, which have enabled researchers to create large historical samples of parent-child links. We identify three main findings. First, absolute mobility increased in the decades leading up to 1940 but has since declined, both in the US and other industrial countries. Second, recent studies on relative mobility question the classic narrative that the US has transitioned from a “land of opportunity” in the 19th century to a less mobile society today, suggesting that mobility was not as high in the past. However, estimates of relative mobility are sensitive to choices regarding sample selection and measurement. Third, we explore mechanisms underlying shifts in intergenerational mobility over time, including geographic mobility, wealth shocks, educational attainment, locational effects, and the transmission of parent-specific human capital. We conclude by suggesting avenues for future research.
摘要：本文概述了研究历史代际流动性趋势的最新实证和方法学进展，重点关注关键的测量挑战。这些进展得益于历史人口普查数据的近期数字化以及新的历史记录链接方法的开发，这使研究人员能够构建出包含大量父母-子女关联的历史样本。我们总结了三个主要发现。首先，从19世纪40年代之前的几十年中，绝对流动性有所提高，但自此之后，无论是在美国还是其他工业化国家，绝对流动性都呈下降趋势。其次，最近关于相对流动性的研究对经典叙述提出了质疑。传统观点认为，美国从19世纪的“机会之地”转变为当今流动性较低的社会，但新研究表明，过去的流动性可能并没有想象中那么高。然而，相对流动性的估算对样本选择和测量方式的选择非常敏感。第三，我们探讨了代际流动性随时间变化的机制，包括地理迁移、财富冲击、教育水平、地域效应以及父母特定人力资本的传递。最后，我们建议了未来研究的可能方向。
时间一致性基础设施投资：空间均衡下的最优防洪政策
Amine Ouazad and Matthew E. Kahn #33333
Abstract: Place-based investments can have unintended general equilibrium effects and face challenges of time inconsistency. This paper simulates the granular impact of alternative spatial and temporal designs of such investments, using Quantitative Spatial Models where the strategy of the policymaker is endogenized, with time-consistent policy analysis or policies with commitment. It can apply to sunk, fixed costs investments in transportation infrastructure, levees, and other location-based investments. Applying this framework to the 1936 Flood Control Act, the largest investment in flood control infrastructure in US history protecting 5% of land, the study examines the general equilibrium effects of levee investments on housing prices, population density, and racial demographics over eight decades. Protected neighborhoods initially had lower property values, higher minority shares, and greater flood risk, but experienced sustained property appreciation and changes in population density. Structural analysis reveals that optimal levee designs prioritize high-density areas, reduce price capitalization, and minimize urban sprawl. Policymakers who cannot commit to long-term plans tend to overbuild and maintain larger systems compared to those with time-consistent strategies.
摘要：基于特定地区的投资可能产生意想不到的一般均衡效应，并面临时间不一致性的挑战。本文利用定量空间模型模拟了此类投资在不同空间和时间设计下的细致影响，并将政策制定者的策略内生化，分析时间一致性政策或具有承诺的政策。这一框架可应用于涉及沉没成本和固定成本的投资，如交通基础设施、防洪堤坝及其他基于地点的投资。本文将该框架应用于1936年《防洪法案》，该法案是美国历史上规模最大的防洪基础设施投资，保护了5%的土地面积。研究分析了堤坝投资在八十年间对房价、人口密度和种族人口结构的一般均衡效应。受保护的社区最初房产价值较低，少数族裔比例较高且面临更大的洪水风险，但随后经历了持续的房产增值和人口密度变化。结构性分析显示，最优的堤坝设计优先考虑高密度区域，减少价格资本化效应，并尽量减少城市扩张。无法承诺长期规划的政策制定者相比采用时间一致性策略的决策者，往往会过度建设并维持更大的系统规模。
大城市对经济增长重要吗？
Matthew Turner and David N. Weil #33334
Abstract: Cities are often described as engines of economic growth. We assess this statement quantitatively. We focus on two mechanisms: a static agglomeration effect that makes production in bigger cities more efficient, and a dynamic effect whereby urban scale impacts the productivity of invention, which in turn determines the speed of technological progress for the country as a whole. Using estimates of these effects from the literature and MSA-level patent and population data since 1900, we ask how much lower US output would be in 2010 if city size had been limited to one million or one hundred thousand starting in 1900. These effects are small. If city sizes had been limited to one million people since 1900, output in 2010 would have been only 8% lower than its observed value.
摘要：城市通常被称为经济增长的引擎。我们对这一说法进行了定量评估，重点关注两个机制：一是静态的集聚效应，即更大的城市使生产更高效；二是动态效应，即城市规模影响发明的生产力，从而决定整个国家技术进步的速度。通过利用文献中对这些效应的估算以及自1900年以来美国大都会统计区（MSA）层面的专利和人口数据，我们分析了如果从1900年开始将城市规模限制在一百万人或十万人，2010年的美国产出会下降多少。结果表明，这些影响较小。如果从1900年起城市规模被限制在一百万人，那么2010年的产出仅比实际观察值低8%。
电子烟税收与酷儿青少年
Anthony Chuo, Chad D. Cotti, Charles J. Courtemanche, Johanna Catherine Maclean, Erik T. Nesson, and Joseph J. Sabia #33326
Abstract: Electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) use among lesbian, gay, bisexual, and questioning (LGBQ) teenagers is over 30 percent higher than among their heterosexual counterparts. Yet little is known about how recent efforts to curb nicotine vaping through ENDS taxes impact sexual minorities. This study explores this question using data from the 2015-2021 State Youth Behavior Surveys. We find that a one-dollar (in 2021$) per mL of e-liquid increase in ENDS taxes reduces the likelihood of any prior-month ENDS use among heterosexual teens by about four percentage points and the likelihood of habitual vaping (as measured by frequent and everyday use) by about two percentage points. In sharp contrast, we find no evidence that ENDS taxes reduce any of the vaping measures for queer youths. The coefficient estimates are consistently less strongly negative for LGBQ than heterosexual youths, and the differences in effects on frequent and everyday vaping are statistically significant. Therefore, taxes widen disparities in vaping between queer and straight teens. The estimated effect of ENDS taxes on LGBQ teens who do not report being depressed, suicidal, or bullied is similar to the effect among heterosexuals, suggesting that LGBQ youths’ tax insensitivity may be explained by their dependence on e-cigarettes to cope with unique stress-related psychological challenges.
摘要：使用电子尼古丁传递系统（ENDS）的同性恋、双性恋和疑性恋（LGBQ）青少年比异性恋青少年高出30%以上。然而，目前对于通过对电子烟征税来遏制尼古丁吸食的最新努力对性少数群体的影响知之甚少。本研究利用2015-2021年州级青少年行为调查数据，探讨了这一问题。研究发现，每毫升电子烟液增加一美元（以2021年美元计算）的ENDS税，能够将异性恋青少年过去一个月内任何电子烟使用的可能性降低约四个百分点，并将习惯性吸电子烟（以频繁和每日使用衡量）的可能性降低约两个百分点。然而，研究发现，对酷儿青少年来说，ENDS税并未减少任何电子烟使用指标。LGBQ青少年的系数估算值始终比异性恋青少年更不显著为负，并且在频繁和每日吸烟的影响差异上具有统计学显著性。因此，税收政策扩大了酷儿青少年和异性恋青少年之间的电子烟使用差距。进一步研究显示，在未报告抑郁、自杀倾向或受欺凌的LGBQ青少年中，ENDS税的影响与异性恋青少年的影响相似，这表明酷儿青少年对税收政策的不敏感可能是由于他们依赖电子烟来应对独特的与压力相关的心理挑战所致。
移民到达年龄与墨裔美国人族裔认同的代际传递
Brian Duncan and Stephen J. Trejo #33329
Abstract: Many U.S.-born descendants of Mexican immigrants do not identify as Mexican or Hispanic in response to the Hispanic origin question asked in the Census and other government surveys. Analyzing microdata from the 2000 U.S. Census and the 2001-2019 American Community Surveys, we show that the age at arrival of Mexican immigrants exerts an important influence on ethnic identification not only for these immigrants but also for their U.S.-born children. Among Mexican immigrants who arrived as children, the rate of “ethnic attrition”—i.e., not self-identifying as Mexican or Hispanic—is higher for those who migrated at a younger age. Moreover, the children of these immigrants exhibit a similar pattern: greater ethnic attrition among children whose parents moved to the United States at a younger age. We unpack the relative importance of several key mechanisms—parental English proficiency, parental education, family structure, intermarriage, and geographic location—through which the age at arrival of immigrant parents influences the ethnic identification of their children. Intermarriage turns out to be the primary mechanism: Mexican immigrants who arrived at a very young age are more likely to marry non-Hispanics, and the rate of ethnic attrition is dramatically higher among children with mixed ethnic backgrounds.
摘要：许多在美国出生的墨西哥移民后代在回答人口普查及其他政府调查中的西班牙裔来源问题时，并不认同自己是墨西哥裔或西班牙裔。通过分析2000年美国人口普查和2001-2019年美国社区调查的微观数据，我们发现，墨西哥移民的到达年龄不仅对他们自身的族裔认同产生重要影响，还对其在美国出生的子女的族裔认同产生重要影响。在作为儿童移民到美国的墨西哥移民中，那些在较小年龄移民的群体，其“族裔流失率”（即不认同为墨西哥裔或西班牙裔）更高。此外，这些移民的子女也表现出类似的模式：父母在更小年龄移民到美国的子女，其族裔流失率更高。我们进一步探讨了几种关键机制的相对重要性，包括父母的英语熟练程度、父母的教育水平、家庭结构、跨族通婚以及地理位置，这些机制影响移民父母的到达年龄如何塑造其子女的族裔认同。研究发现，跨族通婚是主要机制：在非常年轻时移民到美国的墨西哥移民更有可能与非西班牙裔结婚，而在拥有混合族裔背景的子女中，族裔流失率显著更高。
往期精选：
