作为经济学领域历史最悠久、最负盛名的期刊之一，Journal of Political Economy（JPE）在经济理论和实践方面提供了重要而重要的学术成果。该杂志在多个领域发表高度选择性和广泛引用的分析、解释和实证研究，包括货币理论、财政政策、劳动经济学、发展、微观经济和宏观经济理论、国际贸易和金融、产业组织和社会经济学，与AER、QJE、RES、Econometrica合称经济学“五大刊”。点击文末“阅读原文”可跳转JPE期刊官网。

注：中文摘要为机翻内容，未完全校对。

文章目录

1. 1. Long-Term Care Insurance and the Family
   长期护理保险与家庭
   Corina Mommaerts
2. 2. College Attrition and the Dynamics of Information Revelation
   大学辍学与信息揭示的动态
   Peter Arcidiacono, Esteban Aucejo, Arnaud Maurel, and Tyler Ransom
3. 3. Bubble Necessity Theorem
   泡沫必要性定理
   Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda
4. 4. Endogenous Liquidity and Capital Reallocation
   内生流动性与资本再配置
   Wei Cui, Randall Wright, and Yu Zhu
5. 5. Disequilibrium Play in Tennis
   网球中的非均衡策略
   Axel Anderson, Jeremy Rosen, John Rust, and Kin-Ping Wong
6. 6. The Value of Information in Competitive Markets: Evidence from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
   竞争市场中信息的价值：来自中小企业证据
   Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, Ricard Gil, and Guillermo Uriz-Uharte
7. 7. Mobility for All: Representative Intergenerational Mobility Estimates over the Twentieth Century
   全民流动：二十世纪代表性代际流动估计
   Elisa Jácome, Ilyana Kuziemko, and Suresh Naidu
8. 8. Occupational Choice, Matching, and Earnings Inequality
   职业选择、匹配与收入不平等
   Eric Mak and Aloysius Siow

中英摘要

Long-Term Care Insurance and the Family
长期护理保险与家庭

Corina Mommaerts

This paper examines whether informal care by family members influences the demand for long-term care insurance. Motivated by evidence that the availability of informal caregivers correlates with lower insurance demand and that informal care substitutes for formal care, I estimate a dynamic model of long-term care decisions between an elderly parent and her adult child. The availability of informal care lowers demand for insurance by 7 percentage points and suppresses Medicaid spending. A policy that provides equivalent cash benefits for informal care for such families can generate meaningful increases in insurance demand and family welfare and decreases in Medicaid spending.

本文考察家庭成员提供的非正式护理是否影响长期护理保险的需求。鉴于非正式护理人员的可用性与较低的保险需求相关，且非正式护理可以替代正式护理的证据，我估计了一个老年父母与成年子女之间的长期护理决策的动态模型。非正式护理的可用性使保险需求降低了7个百分点，并抑制了医疗补助支出。为这些家庭提供相当于非正式护理的现金补贴的政策可以显著增加保险需求和家庭福利，并减少医疗补助支出。

College Attrition and the Dynamics of Information Revelation
大学辍学与信息揭示的动态

Peter Arcidiacono, Esteban Aucejo, Arnaud Maurel, and Tyler Ransom

We examine how informational frictions impact schooling and work outcomes by estimating a dynamic structural model where individuals face uncertainty about their academic ability and productivity, which determine their schooling utility and wages. We account for different college types, majors, occupational search frictions, and work hours. Individuals learn from grades and wages, which may affect their choices. Removing informational frictions would increase graduation by 4.4 percentage points and by an additional 2 points without search frictions. Providing students with full information about their abilities would increase the college and white-collar wage premia while reducing the graduation gap by family income.

我们通过估计一个动态结构模型来考察信息摩擦如何影响学业和工作结果，其中个人面临对其学术能力和生产率的不确定性，这些因素决定了他们的学业效用和工资。我们考虑了不同类型的大学、专业、职业搜索摩擦和工作时间。个人从成绩和工资中学习，这可能会影响他们的选择。消除信息摩擦将使毕业率提高4.4个百分点，如果没有搜索摩擦，还会额外提高2个百分点。向学生提供关于其能力的完整信息将增加大学和白领工资溢价，同时减少家庭收入的毕业差距。

Bubble Necessity Theorem
泡沫必要性定理

Tomohiro Hirano and Alexis Akira Toda

Asset price bubbles are situations where asset prices exceed the fundamental values defined by the present value of dividends. This paper presents a conceptually new perspective: the necessity of bubbles. We establish the bubble necessity theorem in a plausible general class of economic models: with faster long-run economic growth (G) than dividend growth (Gd) and counterfactual long-run autarky interest rate (R) below dividend growth, all equilibria are bubbly with nonnegligible bubble sizes relative to the economy. This bubble necessity condition naturally arises in economies with sufficiently strong savings motives and multiple factors or sectors with uneven productivity growth.

资产价格泡沫是指资产价格超过由股息现值定义的基本价值的情况。本文提出了一个概念上新的视角：泡沫的必要性。我们在一个合理的经济模型的一般类别中建立了泡沫必要性定理：在长期经济增长速度 (G) 快于股息增长率 (Gd) 且反事实的长期自给自足利率 (R) 低于股息增长的情况下，所有均衡都是泡沫性的，相对于经济规模的泡沫大小不可忽视。当经济体具有足够强的储蓄动机以及多个因素或部门的生产力增长不均衡时，这种泡沫必要性条件自然会出现。

Endogenous Liquidity and Capital Reallocation
内生流动性与资本再配置

Wei Cui, Randall Wright, and Yu Zhu

This paper studies economies where firms acquire capital in primary markets and then, after idiosyncratic productivity shocks, retrade it in secondary markets that incorporate bilateral trade with search, bargaining, and liquidity frictions. We distinguish between full or partial sales (one firm gets all or some of the other’s capital) and document several long- and short-run empirical patterns between these variables and the cost of liquidity, as measured by inflation. Quantitatively, the model can match these patterns plus the standard business cycle facts. We also investigate the impact of search frictions, monetary and fiscal policy, persistence in shocks, and returns to scale.

本文研究了企业首先在一级市场获取资本，然后在遭受特有生产力冲击后，在二级市场重新交易资本的经济体，这些二级市场包含了具有搜索、谈判和流动性摩擦的双边交易。我们区分了完全或部分销售（一个企业获得另一个企业的全部或部分资本），并记录了这些变量与流动性成本（以通货膨胀衡量）之间的若干长期和短期经验模式。从定量上看，模型可以匹配这些模式以及标准的商业周期事实。我们还研究了搜索摩擦、货币政策和财政政策、冲击的持续性以及规模收益的影响。

Disequilibrium Play in Tennis
网球中的非均衡策略

Axel Anderson, Jeremy Rosen, John Rust, and Kin-Ping Wong

Do the world’s best tennis pros play Nash equilibrium mixed strategies? We answer this question using data on serve-direction choices (to the receiver’s left, right, or body) from the Match Charting Project. Using a new approach, we test and reject a key implication of a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium: that the probability of winning the service game is identical for all possible serve strategies. We calculate best-response serve strategies by dynamic programming (DP) and show that for most elite pro servers, the DP strategy significantly increases their win probability relative to the mixed strategies they actually use.

世界上最优秀的网球选手是否采用纳什均衡的混合策略？我们使用来自比赛记录项目的发球方向选择数据（向接发球者的左侧、右侧或身体）来回答这个问题。采用一种新方法，我们检验并否定了混合策略纳什均衡的一个关键含义：所有可能的发球策略赢得发球局的概率是相同的。我们通过动态规划（DP）计算出最佳反应发球策略，并表明对于大多数精英职业发球选手来说，DP策略显著提高了他们的胜率，相对于他们实际使用的混合策略.

The Value of Information in Competitive Markets: Evidence from Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises
竞争市场中信息的价值：来自中小企业证据

Jose Enrique Galdon-Sanchez, Ricard Gil, and Guillermo Uriz-Uharte

We empirically investigate how the performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) changes when gaining access to market information. To do so, we evaluate the impact of an information program diffused by a bank among its SME customers. Adopting firms gained access to reports with rich information about their own clientele and that of nearby establishments. While we find that adoption is associated with a 4.5% revenue increase, our instrumental variable results indicate that adoption increases revenue by 9%. The main mechanism driving our result is that the new information prompted adopting establishments to target gender-age customer groups underserved before adoption.

我们实证研究了中小企业在获得市场信息时其业绩如何变化。为此，我们评估了一家银行在其中小企业客户中推广的信息计划的影响。采用该计划的企业获得了关于自身客户以及附近机构客户的丰富信息报告。虽然我们发现采用与收入增加4.5%相关，但我们的工具变量结果表明，采用使收入增加了9%。推动我们结果的主要机制是，新信息促使采用该计划的企业针对之前服务不足的性别-年龄客户群体.

Mobility for All: Representative Intergenerational Mobility Estimates over the Twentieth Century
全民流动：二十世纪代表性代际流动估计

Elisa Jácome, Ilyana Kuziemko, and Suresh Naidu

We estimate long-run trends in intergenerational relative mobility for representative samples of the US-born population. Harmonizing all surveys that include father’s occupation and own family income, we develop a mobility measure that allows for the inclusion of nonwhite individuals and women for the 1910s–1970s birth cohorts. We show that mobility increases between the 1910s and 1940s cohorts and that the decline of Black-white income gaps explains about half of this rise. We also find that excluding Black Americans, particularly women, considerably overstates the level of mobility for twentieth-century birth cohorts while simultaneously understating its increase between the 1910s and 1940s.

我们估计了美国出生人口代表性样本的代际相对流动的长期趋势。协调所有包含父亲职业和家庭收入的调查，我们开发了一种流动性度量方法，允许将1910年代至1970年代出生队列中的非白人个体和女性纳入其中。我们表明，流动性在1910年代至1940年代队列之间增加，黑人-白人收入差距的缩小解释了其中大约一半的增长。我们还发现，排除黑人美国人，特别是女性，会大大高估二十世纪出生队列的流动性水平，同时低估其在1910年代至1940年代之间的增长.

Occupational Choice, Matching, and Earnings Inequality
职业选择、匹配与收入不平等

Eric Mak and Aloysius Siow

We combine classic occupational choice (Roy model) and frictionless matching (following Sattinger) to explain earnings by occupation and firm in a way that is consistent with double assignment. In our model, within-firm inequality is globally nonzero whenever there is asymmetry in the revenue function or the occupational skill distribution across occupations. Occupational earnings overlap each other, and, unlike in the Roy model, the distributions of potential earnings are endogenous. In line with recent empirical findings on earning decomposition, skill-biased technical change increases within-firm inequality mostly among high-wage firms and not among low-wage firms.

我们结合经典的职业选择（Roy模型）和无摩擦匹配（遵循Sattinger）来解释职业和企业的收入，使其与双重分配一致。在我们的模型中，只要收入函数或职业技能分布在职业之间存在不对称性，企业内部不平等就总是非零的。职业收入相互重叠，与Roy模型不同，潜在收入的分布是内生的。与最近关于收入分解的实证发现一致，技能偏向型技术变革主要增加了高工资企业的企业内部不平等，而不是低工资企业.

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