编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（12.09-12.15）共发布 22 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送中间 8 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
性别融合对男性的影响：来自美国军队的证据
Kyle Greenberg, Melanie Wasserman, and E. Anna Weber #33235
Abstract: Do men negatively respond when women first enter an occupation? We answer this question by studying the end of one of the final explicit occupational barriers to women in the U.S.: in 2016, the U.S. military opened all positions to women, including historically male-only combat occupations. We exploit the staggered integration of women into combat units to estimate the causal effects of the introduction of female colleagues on men’s job performance, behavior, and perceptions of workplace quality, using monthly administrative personnel records and rich survey responses. We find that integrating women into previously all-male units does not negatively affect men’s performance or behavioral outcomes, including retention, promotions, demotions, separations for misconduct, criminal charges, and medical conditions. Most of our results are precise enough to rule out small, detrimental effects. However, there is a wedge between men's perceptions and performance. The integration of women causes a negative shift in male soldiers' perceptions of workplace quality, with the effects driven by units integrated with a woman in a position of authority. We discuss how these findings shed light on the roots of occupational segregation by gender.
摘要：当女性首次进入一个职业时，男性会产生负面反应吗？我们通过研究美国军队消除对女性的最后一个明确职业壁垒来回答这个问题：2016年，美国军队开放了所有职位给女性，包括历史上仅限男性的作战岗位。我们利用女性逐步融入作战单位的过程，结合每月的行政人员记录和丰富的调查数据，估计女性同事进入男性主导的岗位后对男性工作表现、行为和对职场质量认知的因果影响。我们发现，将女性融入先前完全由男性组成的单位并不会对男性的表现或行为结果产生负面影响，包括留职、晋升、降职、因不当行为而离职、刑事指控和医疗状况等。我们的多数结果足够精确，排除了微小的不利影响。然而，男性的认知与表现之间存在差距。女性的融入导致男性士兵对工作环境质量的认知发生负面变化，这一效应主要出现在有女性担任权威职务的单位中。我们讨论了这些发现如何揭示性别职业隔离的根源。
偏离-份额工具变量实用指南
Kirill Borusyak, Peter Hull, and Xavier Jaravel #33236
Abstract: A recent econometric literature shows two distinct paths for identification with shift-share instruments, leveraging either many exogenous shifts or exogenous shares. We present the core logic of both paths and practical takeaways via simple checklists. A variety of empirical settings illustrate key points.
摘要：最近的计量经济学文献展示了使用偏离份额工具变量的两条不同的识别路径，分别利用许多外生的变化或外生的份额。我们通过简单的检查清单，呈现了这两条路径的核心逻辑和实际操作要点。通过多种实证场景来说明关键观点。
工人如何应对通货膨胀的理论
Hassan Afrouzi, Andrés Blanco, Andrés Drenik, and Erik Hurst #33233
Abstract: In this paper, we develop a model that combines elements of modern macro labor theories with nominal wage rigidities to study the consequences of unexpected inflation on the labor market. The slow and costly adjustment of real wages within a match after a burst of inflation incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions. Such dynamics after a surge in inflation lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies relative to unemployment, associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower average real wages. Calibrating with pre-2020 data, we show the model can simultaneously match the trends in worker flows and wage changes during the 2021-2024 period. Using historical data, we further show that prior periods of high inflation were also associated with an increase in vacancies and an upward shift in the Beveridge curve. Finally, we show that other “hot labor market” theories that can cause an increase in the aggregate vacancy-to-unemployment rate have implications that are inconsistent with the worker flows and wage dynamics observed during the recent inflationary period. Collectively, our calibrated model implies that the recent inflation in the United States, all else equal, reduced the welfare of workers through real wage declines and other costly actions, providing a model-driven reason why workers report they dislike inflation.
摘要：本文提出了一个模型，结合了现代宏观劳动理论和名义工资刚性，研究了意外通货膨胀对劳动市场的影响。通货膨胀爆发后，匹配中的实际工资调整缓慢且代价高昂，这激励工人进行工作转换。通货膨胀激增后的这种动态导致了总职位空缺相对于失业的上升，将一个看似紧张的劳动市场与较低的平均实际工资联系起来。通过使用2020年前的数据进行标定，我们显示该模型能够同时匹配2021-2024年期间工人流动和工资变化的趋势。利用历史数据，我们进一步展示了以往高通胀时期也与职位空缺的增加和贝弗里奇曲线的上移相关联。最后，我们表明，其他“热劳动市场”理论也可能导致总职位空缺与失业率的增加，但其含义与最近通货膨胀期间观察到的工人流动和工资动态不一致。总体而言，我们的标定模型表明，美国最近的通货膨胀在其他条件不变的情况下，通过实际工资下降和其他代价较高的行为，降低了工人的福利，从而为工人表示不喜欢通货膨胀提供了基于模型的解释。
菲利普斯曲线有多弯曲？
Philip Bunn, Lena Anayi, Nicholas Bloom, Paul Mizen, Gregory Thwaites, and Ivan Yotzov #33234
Abstract: Macro data suggests a convex relationship between inflation and economic slack, but identifying causality is challenging. Using micro data from large panel surveys of UK and US firms we show that the response of prices to demand shocks is also convex at the firm level. We obtain similar results using three different empirical exercises examining: the impact of COVID demand shocks, the response to sales shocks, and hypothetical shocks from a survey question. This convexity is strongest in firms and industries with higher inflation, disappears in horizons beyond two years, and is also present in response to cost shocks. We rationalize these findings in a menu cost model with positive trend inflation and decreasing returns at the firm level, which replicates firm and aggregate Phillips curve convexity. The non-linearity emerges from trend inflation pushing firms closer to their price increase thresholds.
摘要：宏观数据表明通货膨胀与经济松弛之间存在凸形关系，但识别因果关系具有挑战性。通过使用来自英国和美国企业的大型面板调查的微观数据，我们展示了价格对需求冲击的反应在企业层面上也是凸形的。我们通过三种不同的实证方法得到了类似的结果，分别考察了：COVID需求冲击的影响、销售冲击的反应以及来自调查问题的假设性冲击。这种凸性在通货膨胀较高的企业和行业中最为强烈，在两年以上的时间范围内消失，并且在应对成本冲击时也存在。我们通过一个菜单成本模型来解释这些发现，该模型假设存在正趋势通货膨胀和企业层面的递减收益，并能够复制企业和总体菲利普斯曲线的凸性。这种非线性来源于趋势通货膨胀使企业更接近其价格上涨的阈值。
性别构成与群体行为：来自美国市议会的证据
Emilia Brito Rebolledo, Jesse Bruhn, Thea How Choon, and E. Anna Weber #33223
Abstract: How does gender composition influence individual and group behavior? To study this question empirically, we assembled a new, national sample of United States city council elections and digitized information from the minutes of over 40,000 city-council meetings. We find that replacing a male councilor with a female councilor results in a 25p.p. increase in the share of motions proposed by women. This is despite causing only a 20p.p. increase in the council female share. The discrepancy is driven, in part, by behavioral changes similar to those documented in laboratory-based studies of gender composition. When a lone woman is joined by a female colleague, she participates more actively by proposing more motions. The apparent changes in behavior do not translate into clear differences in spending. The null finding on spending is not driven by strategic voting; however, preference alignment on local policy issues between men and women appears to play an important role. Taken together, our results both highlight the importance of nominal representation for cultivating substantive participation by women in high-stakes decision making bodies; and also provide evidence in support of the external validity of a large body of laboratory-based work on the consequences of group gender composition.
摘要：性别构成如何影响个体和群体行为？为了实证研究这个问题，我们收集了美国市议会选举的新全国性样本，并将超过40,000次市议会会议的会议记录数字化。我们发现，用女性议员替换男性议员，会导致女性提出的议案比例增加25个百分点。尽管此举只使得市议会中女性议员的比例增加了20个百分点。这个差异部分是由与实验室研究中记录的性别构成对行为影响的相似变化所驱动的。当一位孤独的女性议员有了一位女性同事时，她会通过提出更多议案来更积极地参与。行为上的明显变化并没有转化为支出的显著差异。关于支出的无显著发现并非由战略性投票驱动；然而，男性和女性在地方政策问题上的偏好一致性似乎在其中起到了重要作用。综上所述，我们的研究结果既突出了名义代表性对促进女性在重大决策机构中实质性参与的重要性，也为大量关于群体性别构成后果的实验室研究提供了外部有效性的证据支。
评估评估者
Huaizhi Chen and Lauren Cohen #33238
Abstract: Property tax revenues – the largest discretionary source of revenue for local governments - adjust at a pace that is inconsistent with property values in the US. We show that this form of revenue smoothing may be rooted in the political economy of municipalities. Measures of local budget stressors are positively related to upward assessments of a property’s value. Moreover, municipalities are significantly more likely to reassess in up markets as opposed to down – consistent with maximizing tax base and revenue collected. Using micro-level evidence from just-passing school referenda in Illinois, these shocks to municipal liabilities lead to significant increases in property assessments without any associated increases in market values or transactions. Passing a referendum over the prior 3 years increases the probability that a house is reassessed upward by 23%. This flexible form of revenue smoothing creates avenues for personal rent extraction. We find that local tax assessors: 1) have tax assessments on their own properties significantly lower than neighboring properties; and 2) these tax assessments grow significantly slower than neighbors – lowering their tax bills. We further document a significant connection between the underassessment of tax assessors’own properties and the tax-maximizing assessment gaps documented in the districts they operate.
摘要：财产税收入——地方政府最大的可自由支配收入来源——调整的速度与美国房地产价值的变化不一致。我们表明，这种收入平滑可能源于地方政府的政治经济学。地方预算压力的衡量指标与房地产价值上调之间存在正相关关系。此外，地方政府在市场上涨时更有可能重新评估，而在市场下跌时则较少评估，这与最大化税基和征税收入一致。通过使用来自伊利诺伊州刚刚通过的学校公投的微观数据，我们发现这些对地方政府负债的冲击导致了财产评估的显著增加，但与市场价值或交易的增加无关。在过去3年通过公投后，房产被重新评估上涨的概率增加了23%。
这种灵活的收入平滑方式为个人租金提取创造了机会。我们发现地方税务评估员：1）对自己房产的税务评估明显低于邻近房产；2）这些税务评估的增长速度明显低于邻近房产——从而降低了他们的税单。我们进一步记录了税务评估员自己房产的低估与他们所在地区的税收最大化评估差距之间的显著关联。
家族企业中的职业与工资：基于匹配的雇主-雇员数据的证据
Edoardo Di Porto, Marco Pagano, Vincenzo Pezone, Raffaele Saggio, and Fabiano Schivardi #33219
Abstract: We investigate compensation policies in family and non-family firms using a novel employer-employee matched dataset comprising nearly the universe of Italian incorporated firms and ownership information. Family firms pay significantly lower wages and offer slower and less rewarding careers. Differences in worker sorting account for half of the wage gap while productivity differences and compensating differentials explain little of the residual gap. The wage distribution in family firms is more compressed, with infrequent promotions. We rationalize this evidence with a model where family owners seek to maintain control, creating a “glass ceiling” that limits their employees’ career progression.
摘要：我们使用一个新颖的雇主-雇员匹配数据集，研究了家族企业和非家族企业的薪酬政策，该数据集涵盖了几乎所有的意大利法人企业及其所有权信息。家族企业支付的工资显著低于非家族企业，并且提供的职业发展较慢、回报较少。员工排序的差异解释了工资差距的一半，而生产率差异和补偿性差异对剩余差距的解释作用较小。家族企业的工资分布更加压缩，晋升机会较少。我们通过一个模型来解释这些证据，该模型中家族所有者寻求维持控制，从而形成了一个“玻璃天花板”，限制了员工的职业晋升。
搜索成本、中介作用与交易：来自乌干达农业市场的实验证据
Lauren F. Bergquist, Craig McIntosh, and Meredith Startz #33221
Abstract: We study the large-scale experimental rollout of a platform that reduced search and matching frictions in Ugandan agricultural markets by connecting buyers and sellers. Market integration improved substantially: trade increased and price gaps fell. Interpreting the experiment through a trade model, we estimate treatment effects accounting for equilibrium changes that impact control markets. The intervention reduced fixed trade costs by 21% and increased trade flows between treated markets by 6% and across all markets by 1%. Scale economies shaped engagement: few farmers used the platform, but equilibrium price convergence from improved arbitrage by larger traders passed through to farm revenue.
摘要：我们研究了一个平台的大规模实验推广，该平台通过连接买家和卖家，减少了乌干达农业市场中的搜索和匹配摩擦。市场整合得到了显著改善：交易量增加，价格差距缩小。通过一个贸易模型解读实验结果，我们估计了处理效应，考虑了影响对照市场的均衡变化。该干预措施将固定交易成本降低了21%，使处理过的市场之间的贸易流量增加了6%，所有市场之间的贸易流量增加了1%。规模经济影响了参与度：虽然很少有农民使用该平台，但通过较大交易商改进的套利带来的均衡价格收敛，最终传导到了农场收入中。
往期精选：
