编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（1.27-2.2）共发布 27 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送最后 9 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
赢得生计并且还能烘焙它：家庭生产分配中的性别摩擦
Kyle Hancock, Jeanne Lafortune, and Corinne Low #33393
Abstract: We document that female breadwinners do more home production than their male partners, driven by “housework” like cooking and cleaning. By comparing to same sex couples, we highlight that specialization within heterosexual households does not appear to be “gender neutral” even after accounting for average earnings differences. One possible explanation would be a large comparative advantage in housework by women, a supposition commonly used to match aggregate labor supply statistics. Using a model, we show that while comparative advantage can match some stylized facts about how couples divide housework, it fails to match others, particularly that men’s housework time is inelastic to relative household wages. Matching these facts requires some gendered wedge between the opportunity cost of housework time and its assignment within the household. We then turn to the implications for household formation. Gendered rigidities in the allocation of household tasks result in lower surplus for couples where women out-earn men than vice versa, providing a micro-founded reason for substantial literature showing that lower relative earning by men decreases marriage rates. We show that our mechanism—allocation of housework, rather than norms about earnings—plays a role by relating marriage rates to the ratio of home production time in US immigrants’ countries of origin.
摘要：我们记录到，女性养家者比男性伴侣做更多的家庭生产工作，这些工作包括“家务活”，如烹饪和清洁。通过与同性伴侣进行比较，我们强调，即使在考虑到平均收入差异后，异性家庭中的分工也似乎并非“性别中立”。一个可能的解释是女性在家务方面具有较大的比较优势，这一假设通常用于匹配整体劳动力供给统计数据。通过一个模型，我们展示了尽管比较优势可以解释一些关于夫妻如何分配家务的典型事实，但它无法解释其他事实，特别是男性做家务的时间对家庭工资相对变化的弹性很低。要解释这些事实，必须在家务时间的机会成本与其在家庭中的分配之间存在某种性别差异。接着，我们讨论了这一机制对家庭形成的影响。家庭任务分配中的性别僵化导致女性收入高于男性的家庭比男性收入高于女性的家庭拥有更低的剩余，这为大量文献提供了微观基础，表明男性收入相对较低会降低结婚率。我们证明，我们的机制——家务分配，而非关于收入的规范——通过将结婚率与美国移民原籍国的家庭生产时间比率联系起来，发挥了作用。
估算研究投资的经济和预算效应
Theresa Gullo, Benjamin Page, David Weiner, and Heidi L. Williams #33402
Abstract: Many US federal agencies model the economic and budgetary effects of research and development (R&D) investments -- both public R&D and private R&D -- as if R&D were the same as any other form of investment, such as physical capital investment. However, in recent decades a broad base of evidence has developed suggesting that such modeling may result in projections that are not well-aligned with the actual economic and budgetary effects of R&D investments. In this paper, we attempt to synthesize the economic evidence relevant to estimating the economic and budgetary effects of R&D, and examine how and where this research literature could potentially be incorporated into the standard projections produced by various federal agencies.
摘要：许多美国联邦机构将研究与开发（R&D）投资——包括公共研发和私人研发——的经济和预算效应建模为与其他形式的投资（如实体资本投资）相同。然而，近年来大量证据表明，这种建模方法可能导致的预测与实际的经济和预算效应不太一致。在本文中，我们尝试总结与估算研发的经济和预算效应相关的经济证据，并考察如何以及在哪些方面将这一研究文献纳入各种联邦机构所产生的标准预测中。
美国联邦政府和州政府的财政进步性
Johannes Fleck, Jonathan Heathcote, Kjetil Storesletten, and Giovanni L. Violante #33385
Abstract: Combining a variety of survey and administrative data, this paper measures the progressivity of taxes and transfers at the U.S. federal level and separately for each state. The findings are as follows. (i) The federal tax and transfer system is progressive. (ii) State and local tax and transfer systems are close to proportional, on average. (iii) There is substantial heterogeneity in tax levels and tax progressivity across states. (iv) States that are funded mostly by sales and property taxes tend to have regressive tax systems and low average tax rates. States that are funded mostly by income taxes tend to have progressive tax systems and high average tax rates. (v) Regressive states are concentrated in the South and attract more inter-state net migration, especially of high-income migrants. (vi) State progressivity has remained broadly stable between 2005 and 2016. (vii) Incorporating corporate income and business taxes decreases average state progressivity but increases federal progressivity. (viii) Including spending on public goods and services as a transfer has a large positive impact on measured progressivity.
摘要：本文结合多种调查和行政数据，衡量了美国联邦税收和转移支付系统的进步性，并分别对各州进行了分析。研究结果如下：（i）联邦税收和转移支付系统具有进步性。（ii）州和地方的税收和转移支付系统平均接近比例性。（iii）各州的税收水平和税收进步性存在显著异质性。（iv）主要通过销售税和财产税筹集资金的州倾向于拥有累退税制和较低的平均税率；而主要通过所得税筹集资金的州则倾向于拥有进步税制和较高的平均税率。（v）累退税制的州集中在南部，并吸引更多的州际净迁移，尤其是高收入移民。（vi）州的税收进步性在2005至2016年间保持大体稳定。（vii）纳入公司所得税和商业税会降低州的平均税收进步性，但会提高联邦税收的进步性。（viii）将公共商品和服务支出作为转移支付考虑时，对测量进步性有较大的积极影响。
定价不平等
Simon Mongey and Michael E. Waugh #33399
Abstract: This paper studies household inequality and product market power in dynamic, general equilibrium. In our model, households’ price elasticities of demand endogenously vary with wealth. Heterogeneous firms set their price as oligopolistic competitors given the endogenous distribution of demand. A firm’s market power varies with the distribution of demand as households with different elasticities sort into high- and low-price varieties. Under standard preferences, larger firms’ products are more appealing, sell at higher prices, to more households, and a relatively richer customer base, face less elastic demand, and set higher markups. Quantitatively (a) our model rationalizes a wide set of recent empirical studies in the cross-section of households and firms, (b) we find household heterogeneity to be a dominant source of markup variation across firms, and (c) a one-time fiscal transfer of one percent of GDP to households leads to a 0.3 percentage point increase in the aggregate markup.
摘要：本文研究了动态一般均衡中的家庭不平等和产品市场权力。在我们的模型中，家庭的需求价格弹性随着财富内生性地变化。异质化的公司作为寡头竞争者，根据内生的需求分布设定价格。公司的市场力量随着需求分布的变化而变化，因为具有不同弹性的家庭会根据价格高低选择不同的产品。根据标准偏好，大型公司的产品更具吸引力，定价更高，销售给更多家庭，且面向相对富裕的客户群体，需求更具弹性，设置更高的加价。定量分析中：（a）我们的模型合理化了一组近期关于家庭和公司横截面的实证研究；（b）我们发现家庭异质性是公司加价变化的主要来源；（c）一次性向家庭转移1%的GDP将导致整体加价提高0.3个百分点。
降低成本：全球电动汽车电池行业中的边做边学与政府政策
Panle Jia Barwick, Hyuk-Soo Kwon, Shanjun Li, and Nahim B. Zahur #33378
Abstract: Electric vehicle (EV) battery costs have declined by more than 90% over the past decade. This study investigates the role of learning-by-doing (LBD) in driving this reduction and its interaction with two major government policies – consumer EV subsidies and local content requirements. Leveraging rich data on EV models and battery suppliers, we develop and estimate a structural model of the global EV industry that incorporates heterogeneous consumer choices and strategic pricing behaviors of EV producers and battery suppliers. The model allows us to recover battery costs for each EV model and quantify the extent of LBD in battery production. The learning rate is estimated to be 7.5% during our sample period after controlling for industry technological progress, economies of scale, input costs, and EV assembly experience. LBD magnifies the effectiveness of consumer EV subsidies and drives cross-country spillovers from these subsidies. Upstream battery suppliers capture only a minor share of LBD’s economic benefits, and consumer EV subsidies correct for the under-provision of learning and improve social welfare. China’s local content requirement helps domestic suppliers gain a competitive advantage at the cost of consumers and foreign suppliers but would have harmed domestic welfare if delayed by five years.
摘要：电动汽车（EV）电池成本在过去十年中已下降超过90%。本研究探讨了边做边学（LBD）在推动这一成本下降中的作用以及它与两项主要政府政策——消费者电动汽车补贴和本地内容要求——的互动。通过利用关于电动汽车模型和电池供应商的丰富数据，我们开发并估计了一个全球电动汽车行业的结构模型，该模型纳入了异质化的消费者选择和电动汽车生产商及电池供应商的战略定价行为。该模型使我们能够恢复每个电动汽车模型的电池成本，并量化电池生产中的边做边学效应。在控制了行业技术进步、规模经济、投入成本和电动汽车组装经验之后，我们估计学习率在样本期间为7.5%。边做边学放大了消费者电动汽车补贴的有效性，并推动了这些补贴在不同国家之间的溢出效应。上游电池供应商仅占边做边学经济效益的少部分，消费者电动汽车补贴弥补了学习的不足并提高了社会福利。中国的本地内容要求帮助国内供应商获得竞争优势，代价是消费者和外国供应商的利益，但如果延迟五年实施，将会损害国内福利。
行为摩擦是否阻止了企业采纳有利可图的机会？
Paul Gertler, Sean Higgins, Ulrike Malmendier, and Waldo Ojeda #33387
Abstract: Firms frequently fail to adopt profitable business opportunities even when they do not face informational or liquidity constraints. We explore three behavioral frictions that explain inertia among individuals—present bias, limited memory, and distrust—in a managerial setting. In partnership with a FinTech payments company in Mexico, we randomly offer 33,978 firms the opportunity to pay a lower merchant fee. We vary whether the offer has a deadline, reminder, pre-announced reminder, and the size of the fee reduction. Reminders increase take-up by 15%, suggesting a role of memory. Announced reminders increase take-up by an additional 7%. Survey data reveal the likely mechanism: When the FinTech company follows through with the pre-announced reminder, firms' trust in the offer increases. The deadline does not affect larger firms, implying limited or no present bias, but does increase take-up by 8% for smaller firms. Overall, behavioral frictions contribute significantly to explaining profit-reducing firm behavior.
摘要：企业经常未能采纳有利可图的商业机会，即使它们没有面临信息或流动性限制。我们探讨了三种行为摩擦，解释了个人在管理环境中的惰性——即时偏差、有限记忆和不信任。我们与墨西哥一家金融科技支付公司合作，随机提供33,978家公司一个支付更低商户费用的机会。我们改变了是否设置截止日期、提醒、预先公告的提醒以及费用减免的大小。提醒增加了15%的采纳率，表明记忆在其中起了作用。预先公告的提醒使采纳率再增加了7%。调查数据显示了可能的机制：当金融科技公司按预告进行提醒时，企业对这一优惠的信任增加。截止日期对大企业没有影响，意味着没有或只有有限的即时偏差，但对小企业的采纳率增加了8%。总体而言，行为摩擦显著地解释了减少利润的企业行为。
养老社会保障是否有助于儿童？社会保障对孙辈资源的影响
Lucie Schmidt, Lara Shore-Sheppard, and Tara Watson #33381
Abstract: Though Social Security is typically considered a program to support retirees, nearly one in ten children live in a home with Social Security income. Children are substantially more likely to live with an older adult than they were two decades ago, and they are twice as likely to report Social Security income in their household as traditional cash welfare. We use the sharp increase in eligibility for Social Security benefits at age 62 to investigate the role played by the Social Security program in childhood economic resources among children who live with their grandparents. We do not find that Social Security eligibility increases household income on average, but it is associated with a shift towards Social Security income and reductions in deep poverty. We also see increased availability of household members’ time for home production.
摘要：尽管社会保障通常被视为支持退休人员的项目，但几乎十分之一的儿童生活在有社会保障收入的家庭中。与二十年前相比，儿童与年长成人同住的概率大幅增加，他们报告家中有社会保障收入的可能性是传统现金福利的两倍。我们利用62岁时社会保障福利资格的急剧增加，调查了社会保障项目在与祖父母同住的儿童家庭经济资源中的作用。我们没有发现社会保障资格平均增加了家庭收入，但它与家庭收入的转向社会保障收入和深度贫困的减少相关。我们还看到，家庭成员的时间在家务生产中的可用性有所增加。
集体决策中的危机谈判
Jeongbin Kim, Thomas R. Palfrey, and Jeffrey Zeidel #33392
Abstract: Crisis bargaining games are widely used to analyze bilateral conflicts, featuring strategic bluffing akin to poker. Players risk substantial losses from overplaying their hand but can secure significant gains if their opponent concedes. Since decisions in crises typically emerge from collective decision processes within organizations composed of diverse individual members, we use the team equilibrium solution concept to analyze these games, providing a framework for group strategic decision-making under collective choice rules (Kim, et al. 2022). In a team equilibrium, group members have rational expectations about opponents' strategies and share common average payoffs, with private payoff perturbations. Voting rules determine group decisions, assuming optimal voting behavior. Depending on the payoff structure, collective choice rules can lead to more or less bluffing and varying aggression compared to Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium. Our experiment varies game payoffs, group size, and voting rules. Behavior is inconsistent with Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium but broadly consistent with team equilibrium prediction.
摘要：危机谈判博弈广泛用于分析双边冲突，具有类似扑克的战略虚张声势。玩家在过度展示自己手牌时可能面临巨大的损失，但如果对手让步，则可以获得显著的收益。由于危机中的决策通常来自于由多样化个体成员组成的组织中的集体决策过程，我们使用团队均衡解的概念来分析这些博弈，为集体选择规则下的团体战略决策提供框架（Kim 等人，2022）。在团队均衡中，组员对对手的策略有理性预期，并共享共同的平均收益，同时存在私人收益扰动。投票规则决定了小组决策，假设最优投票行为。根据收益结构，集体选择规则可能导致比完美贝叶斯均衡更多或更少的虚张声势和不同程度的攻击性。我们的实验变化了博弈的收益、团队规模和投票规则。行为与完美贝叶斯均衡不一致，但与团队均衡预测大体一致。
第二次世界大战服兵役对1960年代按种族群体划分的收入和流动性的影响
Sergio E. Barrera, Andreas Ferrara, Price V. Fishback, and Misty L. Heggeness #33382
Abstract: We analyze the impact of World War II service on income and mobility among male Army and Army Airforce veterans from various racial and ethnic groups, using linked 1940 Census, WWII enlistment, and 1969 administrative tax return data. The dataset includes non-Hispanic White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Native American men, providing insight into underexplored groups. Ordinary Least Squares estimates indicate that, compared to non-Army men within their groups, Army veterans earned higher incomes and were less likely to migrate across counties between 1940 and 1969, particularly among non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics. To address potential selection bias, we applied a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, comparing men just eligible for service to those slightly too young. These estimates revealed that, in 1969, Army veterans generally had lower adjusted gross incomes than non-Army counterparts among non-Hispanic Whites, Blacks, and Asians, while Hispanic and Native American veterans earned slightly more. Income effects varied by type of income. Veterans also showed lower rates of county migration, particularly among non-Hispanic Whites, Asians, and Native Americans. Migration differences were minor for Blacks and Hispanics. These findings highlight nuanced outcomes of WWII service across diverse racial and ethnic groups.
摘要：我们分析了第二次世界大战服役对来自不同种族和族裔群体的男性陆军和陆军空军退伍军人在收入和流动性方面的影响，使用了链接的1940年人口普查数据、二战征兵数据和1969年行政税务申报数据。数据集包括非西班牙裔白人、黑人、西班牙裔、亚洲人和美洲土著男性，为尚未深入研究的群体提供了洞察。普通最小二乘法估计表明，与同组内未服兵役的男性相比，退伍军人收入更高，并且在1940年至1969年间迁徙到不同县的可能性较低，尤其是在非西班牙裔白人、黑人和西班牙裔中。为了应对潜在的选择偏误，我们采用了模糊回归不连续设计，比较了刚好符合服役资格的男性与那些稍微年轻一些的男性。这些估计结果显示，在1969年，退伍军人的调整后总收入通常低于同类非退伍军人，特别是在非西班牙裔白人、黑人和亚洲人群体中，而西班牙裔和美洲土著退伍军人的收入略高。收入效应因收入类型而异。退伍军人的县级迁徙率较低，特别是在非西班牙裔白人、亚洲人和美洲土著中。黑人和西班牙裔的迁徙差异较小。这些发现突显了第二次世界大战服役在不同种族和族裔群体中的细微差异。
资料来源：https://www.nber.org/papers
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