零售业格局变化的分配影响

Yue Cao, Judith A. Chevalier, Jessie Handbury, Hayden Parsley, and Kevin R. Williams #33307

Abstract: A common tactic to estimate willingness-to-travel exploits variation in the relative proximity of consumers to supplier locations. The validity of these estimates relies on the exogeneity of that consumer-supplier distance. We argue that distance to suppliers is endogenous because suppliers strategically choose locations to target consumers; we introduce a novel instrument to address this form of endogeneity. Using geolocation data from millions of smartphones, we estimate consumer preferences for specific retail chains across income groups and regions. We show that accounting for distance endogeneity significantly alters willingness-to-travel measures. Contrary to the prevailing “retail apocalypse” narrative, we find that consumer surplus per trip to general merchandise stores did not significantly decline from 2010 to 2019. For the lowest-income consumers, the expansion of national chains, particularly dollar stores, nearly compensates for the closure of traditional department stores and regional chains. Notably, failing to account for distance endogeneity leads to the erroneous conclusion that lower-income households experienced statistically significant consumer surplus declines.

摘要：一种常见的估算消费者“出行意愿”的方法是利用消费者与供应商位置之间相对距离的差异。然而，这种估算的有效性依赖于消费者与供应商距离的外生性。我们认为供应商与消费者的距离是内生的，因为供应商会通过战略性选择地点来吸引消费者。为了解决这种内生性问题，我们引入了一种新颖的工具变量。通过分析数百万智能手机的地理位置数据，我们估算了不同收入群体和地区对特定零售连锁店的消费者偏好。研究表明，考虑距离内生性显著改变了“出行意愿”的估算结果。与广泛流传的“零售业末日”说法相反，我们发现，从2010年到2019年，消费者每次前往综合商品商店的消费者剩余并未显著下降。对于低收入消费者而言，全国连锁店（特别是廉价商品店）的扩张几乎完全弥补了传统百货商店和区域连锁店的关闭。此外，如果忽略距离内生性，会得出错误结论，认为低收入家庭的消费者剩余显著下降。

与远程员工的收入分成团队

E. Glenn Dutcher and Krista J. Saral #33321

Abstract: Remote work policies remain controversial because of the perceived opportunity for increased shirking outside of the traditional office; a problem that is potentially exacerbated if employees work in a revenue-sharing team environment. Using a controlled experiment, where individuals are randomized to different work locations (remote or an office-like setting), we examine how remote work impacts effort choices under individual pay schemes and in revenue sharing teams. Treatments vary the number of remote workers on a team. Our results suggest that work location alone does not lead to productivity differences. However, the location of partners does impact an individual’s effort levels in revenue-sharing teams. Non-remote workers reduce effort as the number of remote partners increases, and remote workers increase effort as the number of remote workers increases. These results are driven predominantly by those who are relatively less productive as individuals. Post-experiment incentivized survey evidence points to expectations of partner productivity as a contributing factor.

摘要：远程办公政策因其可能增加员工在传统办公室外“偷懒”行为的机会而备受争议；如果员工在收入分成的团队环境中工作，这一问题可能会进一步加剧。通过一项对不同工作地点（远程或办公室环境）随机分配的控制实验，我们研究了远程办公在个人薪酬制度和收入分成团队中对努力选择的影响。实验处理变量包括团队中远程员工的数量。研究结果表明，工作地点本身并不会直接导致生产力差异。然而，在收入分成团队中，团队成员的位置会影响个体的努力水平。当团队中远程成员数量增加时，非远程员工会减少努力，而远程员工则会随着远程成员数量的增加而提高努力水平。这些结果主要由那些个人生产力相对较低的成员驱动。实验后通过激励性调查收集的证据显示，成员对合作伙伴生产力的预期是一个重要的影响因素。

补充营养援助计划中工作要求豁免的覆盖率、反周期性和目标定位

Richard V. Burkhauser, Kevin Corinth, Thomas O'Rourke, and Angela K. Rachidi #33316

Abstract: Non-disabled, working age adults without children are required to work 20 hours per week in order to maintain eligibility for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. However, states may waive the work requirement for areas that meet conditions reflective of a weak labor market. We construct a dataset with the waiver status of each United States county for every month from 1997–2023 and evaluate waiver coverage, counter-cyclicality and targeting. Waiver coverage has grown over time and in December 2023, when the national unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, waivers covered 29 percent of the U.S. population. In terms of counter-cyclicality, a county’s probability of receiving a waiver increases by 3.1 percentage points for every one percentage point increase in its unemployment rate. In terms of targeting, counties with an unemployment rate below 5 percent received 25 percent of waivers in the average month from 1997–2023. We simulate the effects on waiver eligibility of counterfactual regulations finalized in 2019—but never implemented—by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Altogether, the 2019 rule would have decreased waiver eligibility in all months, increased the responsiveness of waivers to county unemployment rates, and increased the share of waivers targeted to high unemployment counties.

摘要：对于无残疾、处于工作年龄且无子女的成年人，必须每周工作20小时才能继续符合《补充营养援助计划》（SNAP）的资格。然而，各州可以为符合疲弱劳动市场条件的地区申请豁免工作要求。我们构建了一套数据集，涵盖1997年至2023年期间美国每个县每月的豁免状态，并评估了豁免的覆盖率、反周期性和目标定位。研究发现，豁免覆盖率随着时间的推移逐步增长，截至2023年12月，在全国失业率为3.5%的情况下，豁免覆盖了美国29%的人口。在反周期性方面，一个县的失业率每增加1个百分点，其获得豁免的概率增加3.1个百分点。在目标定位方面，从1997年至2023年的月度平均数据来看，失业率低于5%的县获得了25%的豁免。我们还模拟了2019年由美国农业部最终确定但未实施的假设性新规对豁免资格的影响。总体来看，2019年规则将在每个月减少豁免资格，增强豁免对县失业率的响应性，并增加针对高失业率县的豁免比例。

总债务服务能力与私人信贷的上限

Mathias Drehmann, Mikael Juselius, and Sarah Quincy #33306

Abstract: This paper reviews the debt service ratio (DSR) as a theoretically well-grounded indicator of systemic risk. The DSR has the desirable feature that it fluctuates around a stable level which makes its early warning signals easy to understand and communicate. In contrast, current early warning indicators (EWIs) based on credit-developments lack clear economic interpretations and require statistical detrending, which can reduce their accuracy and usefulness for macroprudential policymakers. The review of the literature shows that the DSR provides highly accurate early warning signals for crises and future economic slowdowns, outperforming traditional credit-based indicators. By extending the measurement of the DSR back to the 1920s – a novel contribution in this paper – we demonstrate its EWI effectiveness across different historical periods and show that the DSR acts as an upper limit on benign financial deepening. The paper also outlines questions for future research.

摘要：本文回顾了债务服务比（DSR）作为系统性风险理论基础指标的作用。DSR的一个重要特点是其波动围绕一个稳定水平，这使得其预警信号易于理解和传播。相比之下，目前基于信贷发展的早期预警指标（EWI）缺乏明确的经济解释，并且需要统计上的趋势分离，这可能降低其对宏观审慎政策制定者的准确性和实用性。文献回顾表明，DSR在预测危机和未来经济放缓方面提供了高度准确的早期预警信号，其效果优于传统的基于信贷的指标。通过将DSR的测量时间追溯至20世纪20年代（本文的一项新贡献），我们展示了其在不同历史时期的预警有效性，并证明了DSR作为良性金融深化的上限作用。此外，本文还概述了未来研究的相关问题。

透明盒机器学习与公司债券收益

Sebastian Bell, Ali Kakhbod, Martin Lettau, and Abdolreza Nazemi #33320

Abstract: Machine learning methods in asset pricing are often criticized for their black box nature. We study this issue by predicting corporate bond returns using interpretable machine learning on a high-dimensional bond characteristics dataset. We achieve state-of-the-art performance while maintaining an interpretable model structure, overcoming the accuracy-interpretability trade-off. The estimation uncovers nonlinear relationships and economically meaningful interactions in bond pricing, notably related to term structure and macroeconomic uncertainty. Subsample analysis reveals stronger sensitivities to these effects for small firms and long-maturity bonds. Finally, we demonstrate how interpretable models enhance transparency in portfolio construction by providing ex ante insights into portfolio composition.

摘要：资产定价中的机器学习方法常因其“黑箱”性质而受到批评。本文通过对高维债券特征数据集应用可解释的机器学习方法来预测公司债券收益，研究这一问题。我们在保持模型结构可解释性的同时，实现了业界领先的预测性能，克服了准确性与可解释性之间的权衡。估计结果揭示了债券定价中的非线性关系和经济上有意义的相互作用，尤其与期限结构和宏观经济不确定性相关。子样本分析显示，这些效应在小型企业和长期债券中表现得更为显著。最后，我们展示了可解释模型如何通过提供关于投资组合构成的前瞻性洞察，增强投资组合构建的透明性。

往期精选：

      重磅：学术财经•学术笔记全汇总

重磅：学术财经全球价值链专题学术笔记大汇总（附下载链接失效学术笔记推文）

重磅| 基金申请内部学习和交流

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【学术笔记·第35篇】日本生产者价格指数理论与实证：最终需求-中间需求加总系统

【学术笔记·第34篇】北美自由贸易的贸易和福利影响估计

【学术笔记 第33篇】 英属印度时期铁路：交通基础设施的影响评估（AER）

【学术笔记 第32篇】 技术、地理和贸易(经典EK模型）

【学术笔记 第31篇】2018年贸易战对美国物价和福利的影响

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