【顶刊速递】｜The Economic Journal《经济杂志》2025年1月刊目录及摘要

The Economic Journal（EJ）是现代经济学的创始期刊之一。自 1891 年以来，该杂志为高质量、富有想象力的经济研究提供了一个平台，作为一本大众兴趣期刊，它赢得了全球卓越的声誉，为广泛的国际读者发表了经济学各个领域的论文。《经济杂志》欢迎投稿，无论它们是理论性的、应用的，还是面向学术界或政策制定者的。编辑委员会来自领先的国际机构，涵盖广泛的专业知识。点击文末“阅读原文”可跳转 EJ 期刊官网。

注：中文摘要为机翻内容，未完全校对。

文章目录

1. House Prices and Misallocation: The Impact of the Collateral Channel on Productivity
房价与错配：抵押品渠道对生产率的影响

Sergi Basco, David Lopez-Rodriguez, Enrique Moral-Benito

2. Do Motivated Classmates Matter for Educational Success?
有动力的同学对教育成功有影响吗？

Jan Bietenbeck

3. FAQ: How do I estimate the output gap?
常见问题解答：如何估计产出缺口？

Fabio Canova

4. Healthcare Appointments as Commitment Devices &
医疗预约作为承诺装置

Laura Derksen, Jason T Kerwin, Natalia Ordaz Reynoso, Olivier Sterck

5. Is the output growth rate in NIPA a welfare measure?
国民收入和产品账户中的产出增长率是福利度量吗？

Jorge Durán, Omar Licandro

6. Informal Incentives and Labour Markets
 非正式激励与劳动市场

Matthias Fahn, Takeshi Murooka

7. Optimal Taxation of Capital Income with Heterogeneous Rates of Return
异质回报率下的资本收入最优税收

Aart Gerritsen, Bas Jacobs, Kevin Spiritus, Alexandra V Rusu

8. Network formation and efficiency in linear-quadratic games: An experimental study
线性-二次博弈中的网络形成与效率：一项实验研究

Gergely Horváth

9. Trading Stocks Builds Financial Confidence and Compresses the Gender Gap
交易股票建立财务信心并缩小性别差距

Saumitra Jha, Moses Shayo

10. Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk
评估宏观经济尾部风险

Francesca Loria, Christian Matthes, Donghai Zhang

11. Agricultural Technological Change, Female Earnings and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil
农业技术变革、女性收入和生育率：来自巴西的证据

Vivek S Moorthy

12. Preventing Child Maltreatment: Beneficial Side Effects of Public Childcare
预防儿童虐待：公共托儿服务的有益副作用

13. Commitment and the Dynamics of Household Labour Supply
承诺与家庭劳动力供应的动态

Alexandros Theloudis, Jorge Velilla, Pierre-André Chiappori, José Ignacio Giménez-Nadal, José Alberto Molina

14. The Rise of Pass-Throughs: an Empirical Investigation
 Pass-Throughs 公司份额的上升：一项实证调查

Sebastian Dyrda, Benjamin Pugsley

文章摘要

1.House Prices and Misallocation: The Impact of the Collateral Channel on Productivity
房价与错配：抵押品渠道对生产率的影响

Sergi Basco, David Lopez-Rodriguez, Enrique Moral-Benito

This paper investigates the impact of local house price booms on capital misallocation within industries. Using the geographical variation provided by the Spanish housing boom (2003–7), we show that firms exposed to positive local house price shocks received more bank credit and their investment grew more when they had a higher proportion of real estate assets. This collateral channel results in an increasing dispersion of the capital-labour ratio within industries. A counterfactual calculation suggests that the capital misallocation generated by this channel can account for around 40% of the total factor productivity decline experienced by the Spanish economy during the housing boom.

本文研究了当地房价繁荣对行业内资本错配的影响。利用西班牙房地产繁荣（2003-2007年）提供的地理变化，我们展示了受到积极当地房价冲击的企业获得了更多的银行信贷，并且当它们拥有较高比例的房地产资产时，其投资增长更多。这一抵押品渠道导致行业内资本-劳动比率的分散度增加。反事实计算表明，这一渠道产生的资本错配可以解释西班牙经济在房地产繁荣期间经历的总要素生产率下降的大约40%。

2.Do Motivated Classmates Matter for Educational Success?
有动力的同学对教育成功有影响吗？

Jan Bietenbeck

I provide evidence of social spillovers of personality by showing that being in class with motivated peers affects educational success. I first document that academic motivation, a key aspect of personality in the context of education, predicts own achievement, classroom behaviour, the high school grade point average and college-test taking among elementary school students. Exploiting random assignment of students to classes, I then show that exposure to motivated classmates causally affects achievement, an effect that operates over and above spillovers of classmates’ past achievement and socio-demographic composition. However, peer motivation in elementary school does not affect own motivation and long-term educational success.

我通过展示与有动力的同伴一起上课影响教育成功来提供个性社会溢出效应的证据。我首先记录了学术动机，这是教育背景下个性的一个关键方面，预测了小学生自己的成就、课堂行为、高中平均绩点和大学考试参加情况。利用学生随机分配到班级的机会，然后我展示了接触有动力的同学对成绩有因果影响，这种影响超越了同学过去成就和社会人口统计构成的溢出效应。然而，小学同伴的动机并不影响自己的动机和长期的教育成功。

3.FAQ: How do I estimate the output gap?
常见问题解答：如何估计产出缺口？

Fabio Canova

I investigate the properties of output gaps in New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models and study the relationship between theory-based quantities and the estimates obtained with standard approaches. Theoretical gaps display low-frequency variations, have similar frequency domain representations as potentials and are generally correlated with them. Potentials have important business cycle variability. Existing statistical approaches fail to recognise these features and generate distorted estimates. Gaps are best estimated with a polynomial filter. Explanations for the outcomes are given. I propose a statistical procedure reducing estimation biases.

我研究了新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型中产出缺口的特性，并研究了基于理论的数量与标准方法获得的估计之间的关系。理论缺口显示出低频变化，与潜力有类似的频域表示，并且通常与它们相关。潜力具有重要的商业周期变化性。现有的统计方法未能认识到这些特征并产生扭曲的估计。缺口最好用多项式滤波器来估计。对结果的解释已经给出。我提出了一种减少估计偏差的统计程序。

4.Healthcare Appointments as Commitment Devices &
医疗预约作为承诺装置

Laura Derksen, Jason T Kerwin, Natalia Ordaz Reynoso, Olivier Sterck

We show that ordinary appointments can act as effective substitutes for hard commitment devices and increase demand for a critical healthcare service, particularly among those with self-control problems. We show this using an experiment that randomly offered HIV testing appointments and hard commitment devices to high-risk men in Malawi. Appointments more than double testing rates, with effects concentrated among those who demand commitment. In contrast, most men who take up hard commitments lose their investments. Appointments overcome commitment problems without the potential drawback of commitment failure, and have the potential to increase demand for healthcare in the developing world.

我们展示了普通预约可以作为硬性承诺装置的有效替代品，并增加对关键医疗服务的需求，特别是在有自我控制问题的人中。我们使用一个实验来展示这一点，该实验随机向马拉维的高风险男性提供HIV检测预约和硬性承诺装置。预约使检测率翻倍，效果集中在那些需要承诺的人中。相比之下，大多数接受硬承诺的男性失去了他们的投资。预约克服了承诺问题，而没有承诺失败的潜在缺点，并有可能增加发展中国家对医疗的需求。

5.Is the output growth rate in NIPA a welfare measure?
国民收入和产品账户中的产出增长率是福利度量吗？

Jorge Durán, Omar Licandro

This paper shows that, in a dynamic general equilibrium framework, the rate of output growth as measured by national income and product accounts reflects changes in welfare in the precise sense of equivalent variation. The main argument is straightforward. In a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of heterogeneous households, recursive preferences and quasi-concave technology, the Bellman equation provides a representation of household preferences over current consumption and investment. When applied to this representation of preferences, a Fisher–Shell true quantity index turns out to be equal to the Divisia index, closely approximated by the Fisher ideal chain index used in national income and product accounts.

本文表明，在动态一般均衡框架中，国民收入和产品账户所测量的产出增长率在等价变化的精确意义上反映了福利的变化。主要论点是直接的。在具有异质性家庭、递归偏好和准凹技术的两部门动态一般均衡模型中，贝尔曼方程提供了家庭对当前消费和投资偏好的表示。当应用于这种偏好表示时，Fisher–Shel真实数量指数被证明等于Divisia指数，这与国民收入和产品账户中使用的Fisher理想链指数非常接近。

6.Informal Incentives and Labour Markets
 非正式激励与劳动市场

Matthias Fahn, Takeshi Murooka

This paper investigates how labour-market tightness affects market outcomes if firms use informal, self-enforcing, agreements to motivate workers. We characterise profit-maximising equilibria and show that an increase in the supply of homogeneous workers can increase wages. Moreover, even though all workers are identical in terms of skills or productivity, profit-maximising discrimination equilibria exist. There, a group of majority workers is paid higher wages than a group of minority workers, who may even be completely excluded. Minimum wages can reduce such discrimination and increase employment. We discuss how these results relate to empirical evidence on downward wage rigidity, immigration, the gender pay gap and credentialism.

本文研究了如果企业使用非正式的、自我执行的协议来激励工人，劳动市场的紧张程度如何影响市场结果。我们描述了利润最大化的均衡，并表明同质工人供应的增加可以提高工资。此外，尽管所有工人在技能或生产率方面都是相同的，但利润最大化的歧视均衡存在。在那里，大多数工人群体的工资高于少数群体的工人，后者甚至可能被完全排除在外。最低工资可以减少这种歧视并增加就业。我们讨论了这些结果如何与关于工资向下刚性、移民、性别工资差距和学历主义的经验证据相关。

7.Optimal Taxation of Capital Income with Heterogeneous Rates of Return
异质回报率下的资本收入最优税收

Aart Gerritsen, Bas Jacobs, Kevin Spiritus, Alexandra V Rusu

We derive the Pareto-efficient mix of non-linear taxes on labour income and capital income if people differ in their rates of return on capital. We allow for two reasons why rates of return differ: because individuals with higher ability are better able to invest their capital or because wealthier individuals enjoy scale effects in wealth accumulation. In both cases, a strictly positive tax on capital income is part of any Pareto-efficient tax system. We derive a condition for the Pareto-efficient tax mix that relies solely on empirical sufficient statistics—not on social welfare weights—and find that Pareto-efficient taxes on capital income increase with the degree of return heterogeneity. Numerical simulations for empirically plausible return heterogeneity suggest that Pareto-efficient marginal tax rates on capital income are positive and substantial.

我们推导出了当人们对资本的回报率不同时，劳动收入和资本收入非线性税收的帕累托效率组合。我们允许回报率不同有两个原因：因为能力较高的个体更能有效地投资他们的资本，或者因为较富裕的个体在财富积累中享受规模效应。在这两种情况下，严格正的资本收入税是任何帕累托效率税收系统的一部分。我们推导出一个帕累托效率税收组合的条件，该条件仅依赖于经验上的充分统计数据——而不是社会福利权重——并发现帕累托效率的资本收入税随着回报异质性的程度而增加。对于经验上合理的回报异质性，数值模拟表明，帕累托效率的资本收入边际税率是正的并且相当大。

8.Network formation and efficiency in linear-quadratic games: An experimental study
线性-二次博弈中的网络形成与效率：一项实验研究

Gergely Horváth

We experimentally study effort provision and network formation in the linear-quadratic game characterised by positive externality and complementarity of effort choices among network neighbours. We compare experimental outcomes to the equilibrium and efficient allocations and study the impact of group size and linking costs. We find that individuals overprovide effort relative to the equilibrium level on the network they form. However, their payoffs are lower than the equilibrium payoffs because they create fewer links than is optimal, which limits the beneficial spillover effects of effort provision. Reducing the linking costs does not significantly increase the connectedness of the network and the welfare loss is higher in larger groups. Individuals connect to the highest-effort providers in the group and ignore links to relative low-effort providers, even if those links would be beneficial to form. This effect explains the lack of links in the network.

我们通过实验研究了线性-二次博弈中的努力提供和网络形成，这种博弈的特点是网络邻居之间的努力选择具有正外部性和互补性。我们将实验结果与均衡和有效分配进行比较，并研究了群体大小和链接成本的影响。我们发现，个体在他们形成的网络上相对于均衡水平过度提供努力。然而，他们的收益低于均衡收益，因为他们创建的链接少于最优数量，这限制了努力提供的有益溢出效应。降低链接成本并没有显著增加网络的连通性，而且在较大的群体中福利损失更高。个体连接到群体中努力程度最高的提供者，并忽略与相对较低努力的提供者的链接，即使这些链接是有益的。这种效应解释了网络中缺乏链接的原因。

9.Trading Stocks Builds Financial Confidence and Compresses the Gender Gap
交易股票能够建立财务信心并缩小性别差距

Saumitra Jha, Moses Shayo

Many studies document low rates of financial literacy and suboptimal levels of participation in financial markets. These issues are particularly acute among women. Does this reflect a self-reinforcing trap? If so, can a nudge to participate in financial markets generate knowledge, confidence and further increase informed participation? We conduct a large field experiment that enables and incentivises working-age men and women—a challenging group to reach with standard financial training programs—to trade stocks for four to seven weeks. We provide no additional educational content. We find that trading significantly improves financial confidence, as reflected in stock market participation, objective and subjective measures of financial knowledge, and risk tolerance. These effects are especially strong among women. Participants also become more self-reliant and consult others less when making financial decisions.

许多研究记录了财务知识水平低和金融市场参与度不足的问题。这些问题在女性中尤为严重。这是否反映了一个自我强化的陷阱？如果是这样，那么促使人们参与金融市场的推动能否产生知识、信心，并进一步增加知情参与？我们进行了一项大型现场实验，使适龄男性和女性——这是一个难以通过标准财务培训计划接触到的群体——能够在四到七周内交易股票。我们没有提供额外的教育内容。我们发现，交易显著提高了财务信心，这反映在股市参与度、财务知识和风险容忍度的客观和主观衡量上。这些效果在女性中尤为强烈。参与者在做出财务决策时也变得更加自力更生，咨询他人的次数减少。

10.Assessing Macroeconomic Tail Risk
评估宏观经济尾部风险

Francesca Loria, Christian Matthes, Donghai Zhang

Real gross domestic product and industrial production in the United States display substantial asymmetry and tail risk. Is this asymmetry driven by a specific structural shock? Our empirical approach, based on quantile regressions and local projections, suggests otherwise. We find that the tenth percentile of predictive growth distributions responds between three and six times more than the median to monetary policy shocks, financial shocks, uncertainty shocks, and oil price shocks, indicating a common transmission mechanism. We present two data-generating processes that are capable of matching this finding: a threshold vector autoregression model and a non-linear equilibrium model.

美国的国内生产总值和工业产值显示出显著的不对称性和尾部风险。这种不对称性是由特定的结构性冲击驱动的吗？我们基于分位数回归和局部投影的经验方法表明并非如此。我们发现，预测增长分布的第十百分位数对货币政策冲击、金融冲击、不确定性冲击和油价冲击的反应是中位数的三到六倍，这表明存在一个共同的传导机制。我们提出了两种能够匹配这一发现的数据生成过程：一个阈值向量自回归模型和一个非线性均衡模型。

11.Agricultural Technological Change, Female Earnings and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil
农业技术变革、女性收入和生育率：来自巴西的证据

Vivek S Moorthy

I study how agricultural technological change affects labour market opportunities and fertility in a developing country context. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the adoption of genetically engineered soy across municipalities in Brazil, I show that this labour-saving technology reduced female agricultural earnings and employment without inducing any female sectoral reallocation. Furthermore, this technology adoption increased fertility due to increases in overall household earnings and substitution effects driven by the reduction in female labour demand. These results suggest that technological progress in developing countries may not improve female economic opportunities or lower fertility unless substitution effects are negative and sufficiently large.

本研究探讨了农业技术变革如何影响发展中国家的劳动市场机会和生育率。利用巴西各市镇采用转基因大豆的外生变化，我展示了这种节省劳动力的技术减少了女性在农业领域的收入和就业，而没有引发女性行业重新分配。此外，由于家庭总收入的增加和女性劳动力需求减少所驱动的替代效应，技术采纳增加了生育率。这些结果表明，除非替代效应为负且足够大，否则发展中国家的技术进步可能不会改善女性的经济机会或降低生育率。

12.Preventing Child Maltreatment: Beneficial Side Effects of Public Childcare
预防儿童虐待：公共托儿服务的有益副作用

Malte Sandner, Stephan L Thomsen, Libertad González

We investigate the impact of public childcare provision on the incidence of severe child maltreatment. For identification, we exploit a reform that expanded early childcare in Germany, generating large temporal and spatial variation in childcare coverage at the county level. Using high-quality administrative data covering all reported cases of child maltreatment in Germany by county and year, we find that an increase in childcare slots by one percentage point in a county reduced child maltreatment cases leading to out-of-home placement by about 1%. Our results suggest that the provision of universal public childcare may be more cost effective than previously thought.

我们研究了公共托儿服务对严重儿童虐待发生率的影响。为了识别，我们利用了德国扩大早期托儿服务的改革，这一改革在县级层面产生了托儿服务覆盖范围的大量时间和空间变化。利用涵盖德国所有县级和年份报告的儿童虐待案件的高质量行政数据，我们发现，一个县的托儿服务名额增加一个百分点，导致需要离家安置的儿童虐待案件减少了约1%。我们的结果表明，提供普遍的公共托儿服务可能比之前认为的更具成本效益。

13.Commitment and the Dynamics of Household Labour Supply
承诺与动态家庭劳动力供应

Alexandros Theloudis, Jorge Velilla, Pierre-André Chiappori, José Ignacio Giménez-Nadal, José Alberto Molina

The extent to which individuals commit to their partner for life has important implications. This paper develops a life-cycle collective model of the household, through which it characterises behaviour in three prominent alternative types of commitment: full, limited and no commitment. We propose a test that distinguishes between all three types based on how contemporaneous and historical news affect household behaviour. Our test permits heterogeneity in the degree of commitment across households. Using recent data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we reject full and no commitment, while we find strong evidence for limited commitment.

个人对伴侣一生的承诺程度具有重要意义。本文发展了一个家庭生命周期集体模型，通过该模型描述了三种突出的承诺类型：完全承诺、有限承诺和无承诺的行为。我们提出了一个测试，根据当前和历史新闻如何影响家庭行为来区分这三种类型。我们的测试允许家庭之间承诺程度的异质性。利用来自收入动态面板研究的最新数据，我们拒绝了完全承诺和无承诺，同时我们找到了有限承诺的强有力证据。

14.The Rise of Pass-Throughs: an Empirical Investigation
 Pass-Throughs 比例的上升：一项实证调查

Sebastian Dyrda, Benjamin Pugsley

Almost half of all private employment in the United States is within businesses that do not pay corporate income tax. Instead, business income passes through to the owners’ individual income taxes. This pass-through share of employment has more than tripled since the early 1980s. Using comprehensive, confidential administrative data, this paper highlights five core findings underlying this growth: (1) the rise in pass-throughs is pervasive across industries and states; (2) the pass-through share converges unconditionally across both; (3) entrants’ organisational choices drive 60% of the rise; (4) shifts in firm and organisational dynamics following the 1986 Tax Reform Act show continued effects through the 2000s; (5) organisational forms exhibit high persistence with little life-cycle variation. Our study implies that tax or regulatory policy changes might take decades to manifest fully.

美国几乎所有私营就业中的一半都在不支付公司所得税的企业内。相反，企业所得不作为企业税基来征税，而是转化为个人所得，由个人来申报和缴纳税款的比例或现象。自20世纪80年代初以来，这种Pass-Throughs公司就业的份额已经增加了三倍以上。利用全面、保密的行政数据，本文突出了这一增长背后的五个核心发现：(1) Pass-Throughs比例的上升在各个行业和州普遍存在；(2) Pass-Throughs在两者中无条件地趋于一致；(3) 新进入者的组织选择推动了60%的上升；(4) 1986年税改法案之后公司和组织动态的变化持续影响到2000年代；(5) 组织形式表现出高持久性，生命周期变化很小。我们的研究表明，税收或监管政策的变化可能需要几十年才能完全显现。