《美国经济评论（American Economic Review, AER）》由美国经济学会主办，1911年创立，所刊文章涉及经济学各个领域，是美国经济学界最古老、最受人尊敬的经济学专业学术期刊之一。在经济学领域，被视为最有学术声望的重要期刊之一，与JPE、QJE、RES、ECMA合称经济学“五大刊”，堪称经济学皇冠上的明珠。其文献代表着对经济学研究以及对经济现象最影响深远的认识。点击文末“阅读原文”可跳转AER期刊官网。
注：中文摘要为机翻内容，未完全校对。
文章目录
1. Five Facts about MPCs: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
关于边际消费倾向（MPCs）的五个事实：来自随机实验的证据
Johannes Boehm, Etienne Fize, and Xavier Jaravel2. Universalism: Global Evidence
普世主义：全球证据
Alexander W. Cappelen, Benjamin Enke, and Bertil Tungodden3. In Harm's Way? Infrastructure Investments and the Persistence of Coastal Cities
处于危险之中？基础设施投资与沿海城市的持续性
Clare Balbon4. Price Floors and Employer Preferences: Evidence from a Minimum Wage Experiment
价格下限与雇主偏好：来自最低工资实验的证据
John J. Horton5. Heterogeneity in School Value Added and the Private Premium
学校增值的异质性与私立溢价
Tahir Andrabi, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das, and Asim I. Khwaja6. Organized Voters: Elections and Public Funding of Nonprofits
组织选民：选举与非营利组织的公共资助
Camille Urvoy7. The Global Financial Resource Curse
全球金融资源诅咒
Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro, and Martin Wolf8. Dying or Lying? For-Profit Hospices and End-of-Life Care
临终还是撒谎？营利性临终关怀和生命末期护理
Jonathan Gruber, David H. Howard, Jetson Leder-Luis, and Theodore L. Caputi9. Whatever It Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises
不惜一切代价？条件性政策承诺的影响
Valentin Haddad, Alan Moreira, and Tyler Muir10. Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field
风险选择中的动态不一致性：来自实验室和现场的证据
Rawley Heimer, Zwetelina Iliewa, Alex Imas, and Martin Weber
文章摘要
Five Facts about MPCs: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment
关于边际消费倾向（MPCs）的五个事实：来自随机实验的证据
Johannes Boehm, Etienne Fize, and Xavier Jaravel
We present five facts from an experiment on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory transfers: (1) the one-month MPC on a cash-like transfer is 23 percent; (2) it is substantially higher (61 percent) on a transfer administered via a card where remaining funds expire after three weeks, inconsistent with money fungibility; (3) the consumption response is concentrated in the first three weeks; (4) MPCs vary with household characteristics but are high even for the liquid wealthy; (5) unconditional MPC distribution exhibits large variation. Our findings inform the design of stimulus policies and pose challenges to existing macroeconomic models.
我们从对一次性转移支付的边际消费倾向（MPC）实验中总结了五个事实：（1）类似现金的转移支付的一个月边际消费倾向是23%；（2）通过卡片管理的转移支付，剩余资金在三周后到期，其边际消费倾向显著更高（61%），这与货币的可替代性不一致；（3）消费反应集中在前三个周；（4）MPC随家庭特征变化，即使对于流动性富裕的家庭也很高；（5）无条件的MPC分布表现出很大的变化。我们的发现为刺激政策的设计提供了信息，并对现有的宏观经济模型提出了挑战。
Universalism: Global Evidence
普世主义：全球证据
Alexander W. Cappelen, Benjamin Enke, and Bertil Tungodden
This paper leverages nationally representative surveys across 60 countries and 64,000 respondents to present novel stylized facts about the relationship-specific nature of altruism. Across individuals, universalist preferences systematically vary with demographics such as age and religiosity and are predictive of many left-wing political views, albeit in culturally highly heterogeneous ways. Across countries, universalism is strongly linked to a broader radius of trust. Looking at origins, universalism varies with the economic, political, and religious organization of societies in ways that are consistent with the idea that the scope of altruism is partly shaped by economic incentives and democracy.
本文利用60个国家和64,000名受访者的全国代表性调查，提出了关于利他主义关系特定性质的新风格化事实。在个体之间，普适主义偏好会随着年龄和宗教信仰等人口统计学特征而变化，并且预测了许多左翼政治观点，尽管在文化上高度异质。在国家之间，普适主义与更广泛的信任半径显著相关。从起源来看，普适主义随着社会的经济、政治和宗教组织的变化而变化，这与利他主义的范围部分由经济激励和民主塑造的观点是一致的。
In Harm's Way? Infrastructure Investments and the Persistence of Coastal Cities
处于危险之中？基础设施投资与沿海城市的持续性
Clare Balboni
Coasts contain a disproportionate share of the world's population, reflecting historical advantages, but environmental change threatens a reversal of coastal fortune in the coming decades as natural disasters intensify and sea levels rise. This paper considers whether large infrastructure investments should continue to favor coastal areas. I estimate a dynamic spatial equilibrium framework using detailed geo-referenced data on road investments in Vietnam from 2000 to 2010 and find evidence that coastal favoritism has significant costs. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the dynamic effects of environmental change in deciding where to allocate infrastructure today.
沿海地区包含了世界上不成比例的人口份额，反映了历史优势，但随着自然灾害加剧和海平面上升，环境变化威胁到未来几十年沿海命运的逆转。本文考虑是否应该继续优先考虑沿海地区的大规模基础设施投资。我使用2000年至2010年越南道路投资的详细地理参考数据估计了一个动态空间均衡框架，并发现沿海偏好有显著的成本。结果强调了在决定今天在哪里分配基础设施时，考虑环境变化的动态效应的重要性。
Price Floors and Employer Preferences: Evidence from a Minimum Wage Experiment
价格下限与雇主偏好：来自最低工资实验的证据
John J. Horton
Firms posting job openings in an online labor market were randomly assigned minimum hourly wages. When facing a minimum wage, fewer firms hired, but those they did hire paid higher wages. Hours-worked fell substantially. Treated firms shifted to hiring more productive workers. Using the platform's imposition of a market-wide minimum wage after the experiment, I find that many of the experimental results also hold in equilibrium, including the substitution towards more productive workers. However, there was also a large reduction in the number of jobs posted for which the minimum wage would likely bind.
在线劳动市场上发布职位空缺的公司被随机分配了最低小时工资。面对最低工资时，雇佣的公司减少了，但他们确实雇佣的员工支付了更高的工资。工作时间大幅下降。接受处理的公司转向雇佣更有生产力的工人。利用实验后平台实施的全市场最低工资，我发现许多实验结果在均衡中也成立，包括向更有生产力的工人的替代。然而，对于最低工资可能适用的职位发布数量也有大幅减少。
Heterogeneity in School Value Added and the Private Premium
学校增值的异质性与私立溢价
Tahir Andrabi, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das, and Asim I. Khwaja
We estimate and validate test score–based measures of school quality (school value added, or SVA) in Pakistan. We document substantial variation in SVA within villages and within the public and private sectors, leading to a wide range of possible estimates of the private premium. We also show that parents value SVA. Heterogeneity in parental demand for quality helps explain both the evolution of the market over time and cross-market variation in school quality. The supply side responds to parental demand for quality in the private sector, but there is no evidence it does so in the public sector.
我们估算并验证了巴基斯坦基于考试分数的学校质量衡量标准（学校附加值或 SVA）。 我们记录了村庄内部以及公立和私立学校之间学校附加值的巨大差异，从而对私立学校的溢价进行了广泛的估计。 我们还表明，家长重视 SVA。 家长对质量需求的异质性有助于解释市场随时间的演变和学校质量的跨市场差异。 在私立学校，供应方对家长的质量需求做出了反应，但在公立学校，没有证据表明供应方对家长的质量需求做出了反应。
Organized Voters: Elections and Public Funding of Nonprofits
组织选民：选举与非营利组织的公共资助
Camille Urvoy
What makes politicians respond to civil society organizations' demands? I use new data on government transfers to French associations and exploit close elections to show that politicians grant more funds to ideologically close organizations when the local incumbent is a political ally and was elected by a small margin. The results are consistent with politicians and organizations exchanging financial support for electoral support. Organizations secure funding because of the votes they can deliver, not because of their campaign contributions; however, the fact that transfers appear to be conditioned on support may undermine their ability to help hold politicians accountable.
是什么促使政治家对民间组织的要求做出回应？ 我使用了政府向法国社团转移支付的新数据，并利用接近选举的情况来说明，当当地现任者是政治盟友且以微弱优势当选时，政治家会向意识形态接近的组织提供更多资金。 结果与政治家和组织以财政支持换取选举支持的情况一致。 组织之所以能获得资金，是因为它们能提供选票，而不是因为它们的竞选捐款；然而，资金转移似乎以支持为条件，这一事实可能会削弱它们帮助政客问责的能力。
The Global Financial Resource Curse
全球金融资源诅咒
Gianluca Benigno, Luca Fornaro, and Martin Wolf
We provide a model connecting the global saving glut to productivity growth. The key feature is that the tradable sector is the engine of growth of the economy. Capital flows from developing countries to the United States boost demand for US nontradable goods, inducing a reallocation of US economic activity from the tradable sector to the nontradable one. In turn, lower profits in the tradable sector lead firms to cut back investment in innovation. Since innovation in the United States determines the evolution of the world technological frontier, the result is a drop in global productivity growth.
我们提供了一个模型，将全球储蓄过剩与生产率增长联系起来。关键特点是可贸易部门是经济增长的引擎。来自发展中国家的资本流向美国，增加了对美国非贸易商品的需求，促使美国经济活动从可贸易部门重新分配到非贸易部门。反过来，可贸易部门的利润降低导致企业减少对创新的投资。由于美国的创新决定了世界技术前沿的演变，结果是全球生产率增长的下降。
Dying or Lying? For-Profit Hospices and End-of-Life Care
临终还是撒谎？营利性临终关怀和生命末期护理
Jonathan Gruber, David H. Howard, Jetson Leder-Luis, and Theodore L. Caputi
The Medicare hospice program is intended to provide palliative care to terminal patients, but patients with long stays in hospice are highly profitable, motivating concerns about overuse among the Alzheimer's and Dementia (ADRD) population in the rapidly growing for-profit sector. We provide the first causal estimates of the effect of for-profit hospice on patient spending using the entry of for-profit hospices over 20 years. We find hospice has saved money for Medicare by offsetting other expensive care among ADRD patients. As a result, policies limiting hospice use including revenue caps and antifraud lawsuits are distortionary and deter potentially cost-saving admissions.
医疗保险临终关怀项目旨在为末期患者提供姑息治疗，但在临终关怀中长期停留的患者非常有利可图，这引发了对阿尔茨海默病和痴呆症（ADRD）人群在快速增长的营利部门中过度使用的担忧。我们提供了第一个关于营利性临终关怀对患者支出影响的因果估计，使用了20年来营利性临终关怀的进入情况。我们发现，临终关怀通过抵消ADRD患者的其他昂贵护理，为医疗保险节省了资金。因此，限制临终关怀使用的政策，包括收入上限和反欺诈诉讼，是扭曲的，并阻碍了可能节省成本的入院。
Whatever It Takes? The Impact of Conditional Policy Promises
不惜一切代价？条件性政策承诺的影响
Valentin Haddad, Alan Moreira, and Tyler Muir
At the announcement of a new policy, agents form a view of state-contingent policy actions and impact. We develop a method to estimate this state-contingent perception and implement it for many asset-purchase interventions worldwide. Expectations of larger support in bad states—"policy puts"—explain a large fraction of the announcements' impact. For example, when the Fed introduced purchases of corporate bonds in March 2020, markets expected five times more price support had conditions worsened relative to the median scenario. Perceived promises of additional support in bad states alter asset prices, risk, and the response to future announcements.
在新政策宣布时，代理人会形成对状态依赖的政策行动和影响的看法。我们开发了一种方法来估计这种状态依赖的感知，并将其应用于全球许多资产购买干预。对糟糕状态下更大支持的预期——“政策看涨期权”——解释了公告影响的很大一部分。例如，当美联储在2020年3月引入购买公司债券时，市场预期在条件恶化相对于中位数情景时，价格支持增加了五倍。在糟糕状态下额外支持的感知承诺改变了资产价格、风险和对未来公告的反应。
Dynamic Inconsistency in Risky Choice: Evidence from the Lab and Field
风险选择中的动态不一致性：来自实验室和现场的证据
Rawley Heimer, Zwetelina Iliewa, Alex Imas, and Martin Weber
We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and a series of experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. Across settings, people accept risk as part of a loss-exit strategy—planning to continue taking risk after gains and stopping after losses. Actual behavior deviates from initial strategies by cutting gains early and chasing losses. More people accept risk when offered a commitment to their initial strategy. Our results help reconcile seemingly contradictory findings on risk-taking in static versus dynamic contexts. We explore implications for theory and welfare.
我们记录了风险选择中稳健的动态不一致性。 利用独特的经纪商数据集和一系列实验，我们比较了人们最初的冒险计划和随后的决策。 在各种情况下，人们接受风险是亏损退出策略的一部分--计划在获利后继续承担风险，在亏损后停止承担风险。 实际行为偏离了最初的策略，即提前削减收益并追逐损失。 更多的人在获得对其初始策略的承诺时会接受风险。 我们的研究结果有助于调和静态与动态环境下风险承担方面看似矛盾的研究结果。 我们探讨了对理论和福利的影响。
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