编者按：美国全国经济研究所（NBER）是美国最大的经济学研究组织，其发布的工作论文代表着经济学研究最新的成果，每周一发布新论文。本周（1.27-2.2）共发布 27 篇新工作论文，本期将会推送前 9 篇论文的题目与摘要，供读者学习。
学术财经研究团队翻译。
假装是白人：种族身份与老年长寿
Hamid Noghanibehambari and Jason Fletcher #33394
Abstract: In the presence of segregation and discrimination during the late 19th and early 20th century, many African American men changed their racial identity and “passed” for white. Previous studies have suggested that this activity was associated with increases in income and socioeconomic status despite the costs associated with cutting ties with their black communities. This study adds to this literature by evaluating the long-run effects of passing on old-age longevity. We construct longitudinal data of black families in historical censuses (1880-1940) linked to their male children’s Social Security Administration death records (1975-2005). We use family fixed effects to demonstrate that individuals passing as white live approximately 9.4 months longer, on average, than their non-passing siblings. Additional analyses suggest substantial improvements in education and occupational standing scores as well as differential parental investments as potential pathways.
摘要：在19世纪末和20世纪初的种族隔离和歧视背景下，许多非裔美国男性改变了自己的种族身份，并“假装”是白人。以往的研究表明，这一行为与收入和社会经济地位的提高相关，尽管与切断与黑人社区的联系所带来的成本相伴随。本研究通过评估“假装”对老年长寿的长期影响，进一步拓展了这一文献。我们构建了历史人口普查（1880-1940年）中黑人家庭的纵向数据，并将其与男性子女的社会保障管理局死亡记录（1975-2005年）进行关联。我们使用家庭固定效应模型，展示了假装为白人的个体平均比未假装的兄弟姐妹长寿约9.4个月。进一步分析表明，教育和职业地位评分的显著提升，以及父母在投资方面的差异，可能是这一差异的潜在路径。
家，甜蜜的家：员工有多重视远程工作？
Zoe B. Cullen, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia #33383
Abstract: We estimate the value employees place on remote work using revealed preferences in a high-stakes, real-world context, focusing on U.S. tech workers. On average, employees are willing to accept a 25% pay cut for partly or fully remote roles. Our estimates are three to five times that of previous studies. We attribute this discrepancy partly to methodological differences, suggesting that existing methods may understate preferences for remote work. Despite the strong preference for remote work, we expected to find a compensating wage differential, with remote positions offering higher compensation than otherwise identical in-person positions. However, using novel data on salaries for tech jobs, we reject that hypothesis. We propose potential explanations for this puzzle, including optimization frictions and worker sorting.
摘要：我们通过显示偏好来估算员工对远程工作的重视程度，聚焦于美国的科技行业员工。在高风险的现实环境中，我们发现员工通常愿意接受25%的薪资削减，以换取部分或完全远程的工作岗位。我们的估算结果是以往研究的三到五倍。我们将这一差异部分归因于方法论上的差异，表明现有方法可能低估了员工对远程工作的偏好。尽管员工对远程工作的偏好很强烈，但我们原本预计会发现薪资差异，远程职位的薪酬应该高于其他完全相同的面对面职位。然而，通过使用有关科技职位薪资的新数据，我们推翻了这一假设。我们提出了几个可能的解释，包括优化摩擦和员工排序。
元认知意识与学业表现
Jarod T. Apperson, A. Nayena Blankson, Francesina Jackson, Angelino Viceisza, Bruce Wade, and Jimmeka Guillory Wright #33380
Abstract: Roughly 25 percent of first-year college students do not return for a second year. This has led to a range of policies and interventions aimed at increasing college performance, persistence, and graduation. In this article, we assess whether cognitive strategy instruction (CSI) has the potential to improve student performance in college. We conducted two randomized controlled trials in a mandatory, year-long, first-year, reading/writing-intensive course at Spelman College, a private historically Black institution for women. We find that CSI at best impacts grade-related outcomes like GPA, but not metacognitive knowledge or persistence. Future work will explore the impacts on longer-run outcomes such as graduation.
摘要：大约25%的大学一年级学生没有返回进行第二年的学习。这导致了一系列旨在提高大学表现、持久性和毕业率的政策和干预措施。在本文中，我们评估了认知策略教学（CSI）是否有可能改善大学生的表现。我们在斯佩尔曼学院（Spelman College）进行了一项强制性、为期一年的一年级阅读/写作强化课程中，进行了两项随机对照试验。我们发现，认知策略教学最多只能对与成绩相关的结果（如GPA）产生影响，但对元认知知识或持久性没有影响。未来的研究将探讨对长期结果（如毕业率）的影响。
大学招生中的可选考试政策如何不成比例地伤害来自贫困背景的高成就申请者
Bruce Sacerdote, Douglas O. Staiger, and Michele Tine #33389
Abstract: We find that test score optional policies harm the likelihood of elite college admission for high achieving applicants from disadvantaged backgrounds. We show that at one elite college campus, SAT (and ACT) scores predict first year college GPA equally well across income and other demographic groups; high school GPA and class rank offer little additional predictive power. Under test score optional policies, less advantaged applicants who are high achieving submit test scores at too low a rate, significantly reducing their admissions chances; such applicants increase their admissions probability by a factor of 3.6x (from 2.9 percent to 10.2 percent) when they report their scores. High achieving first-generation applicants raise admissions chances by 2.4x by reporting scores. Much more than commonly understood, elite institutions interpret test scores in the context of background, and availability of test scores on an application can promote rather than hinder social mobility.
摘要：我们发现，可选考试政策会对来自贫困背景的高成就申请者进入精英大学的机会产生负面影响。我们展示了在一所精英大学校园中，SAT（和ACT）成绩在各收入和其他人口群体中对大学一年级GPA的预测能力相当一致；高中GPA和班级排名提供的附加预测能力非常有限。在可选考试政策下，较不具优势的高成就申请者提交考试成绩的比例过低，显著降低了他们的录取机会；当这些申请者报告成绩时，他们的录取概率提高了3.6倍（从2.9%增加到10.2%）。高成就的第一代申请者通过报告成绩将录取机会提高了2.4倍。远比通常理解的更多，精英院校在背景的背景下解读考试成绩，申请中提供考试成绩不仅能促进，而非阻碍社会流动性。
信息与差异化产品带来的福利效益
Imke Reimers, Christoph Riedl, and Joel Waldfogel #33401
Abstract: Differentiated product consumption choices made without full information can lead to welfare losses from regret and missed opportunities, but a lack of post-purchase usage data has prevented their exploration. Using novel data on individual ownership and post-purchase usage of video games, we explore both the potential welfare benefits of full information prior to purchase and the ability of contemporary prediction technology to produce these gains. We find large potential gains: Among currently owned games, fully informed consumers could achieve 90 percent of their status quo playtime with 40 percent of current expenditure; and current expenditure reallocated among all available games could double status quo playtime. We develop a tractable model of consumer choice among bundles based on hours of playtime relative to overall spending, which we implement using both a Cobb Douglas calibration and a logit model of bundle choice. Full information would raise consumer surplus by more than the value of status quo expenditure; and it would reduce expenditure by half. Consumers heeding sophisticated, personalized predictions would obtain roughly 40 percent of these welfare benefits with a fifth less spending.
摘要：在缺乏完全信息的情况下做出的差异化产品消费选择可能导致因后悔和错失机会而产生的福利损失，但缺乏购买后使用数据一直阻碍着对这一问题的探讨。通过使用关于个体拥有和购买后使用视频游戏的新数据，我们探索了购买前完全信息的潜在福利效益以及当代预测技术在实现这些效益方面的能力。我们发现了巨大的潜在收益：在当前拥有的游戏中，完全知情的消费者可以以当前支出的40%实现90%的现有游戏时间；而将当前支出重新分配到所有可用游戏中，则可以使现有游戏时间翻倍。我们提出了一个可操作的消费者选择模型，该模型基于游戏时间相对于整体支出的比例来选择游戏包，我们使用科布-道格拉斯（Cobb Douglas）校准和选择包的Logit模型进行了实现。完全信息将使消费者剩余增加，超过现有支出价值；并且支出将减少一半。听从复杂、个性化预测的消费者将通过减少五分之一的支出，获得约40%的这些福利效益。
理性化企业预测
Nicholas Bloom, Mihai A. Codreanu, and Robert A. Fletcher #33384
Abstract: We partner with a large US payment-processing company to run a 5-year, 10 wave panel survey of incentivized quarterly sales forecasts on over 6,000 firms. We match firm predictions to proprietary revenue data to assess accuracy. We find firms forecast poorly, with issues of inaccuracy, over-optimism, predictable errors and over-precision. To assess the causes of these forecasting issues we run experiments on: (i) data use, (ii) incentives, (iii) forecasting skill, and (iv) contingent thinking. We find greater data use primarily decreases noise and reduces over-precision, while higher incentives moderate over-optimism. Both moderately increase accuracy. The other two treatments have no impact. These results suggest forecasting biases can be reduced but are hard to eliminate. In a simple simulation model, we show these biases change firm responsiveness to changes in taxes and productivity, highlighting their macro importance.
摘要：我们与一家大型美国支付处理公司合作，进行了一项为期五年、十轮的面板调查，调查对象为6,000多家公司，内容涉及激励性的季度销售预测。我们将公司预测与专有的收入数据进行匹配，以评估预测的准确性。我们发现，公司预测表现不佳，存在不准确、过于乐观、可预测的错误和过度精确的问题。为了评估这些预测问题的原因，我们进行了一些实验，涉及：（i）数据使用，（ii）激励，（iii）预测技能，以及（iv）应急思维。我们发现，更大的数据使用主要减少了噪音并降低了过度精确性，而更高的激励则缓解了过于乐观的问题。这两者都能适度提高准确性。其他两个处理方法没有影响。这些结果表明，预测偏差可以减少，但很难完全消除。在一个简单的模拟模型中，我们展示了这些偏差如何改变公司对税收和生产力变化的响应，突出了它们在宏观经济中的重要性。
通货膨胀的微观起源
Santiago Alvarez-Blaser, Raphael Auer, Sarah M. Lein, and Andrei A. Levchenko #33404
Abstract: This paper uses barcode-level price data for 16 advanced and emerging market countries over the period 2005–2022 to investigate the role of individual firms and product categories in aggregate inflation. We decompose inflation into the component due to macroeconomic shocks and the granular residuals capturing the impact of individual firms and product categories, respectively. In advanced economies, the firm granular residual accounts for 41% of the variance of overall inflation, while the product category granular residual accounts for another 15%. Most of the variation in the firm granular residual is due to idiosyncratic shocks rather than to higher sensitivity of larger firms to common shocks. In the cross-section of countries, granular residuals are less important in economies with less concentrated market shares and higher inflation, such as emerging markets. Lastly, granular residuals contributed to the post-COVID inflation surge, with the firm-level component accounting for roughly one-third of the 2021-2022 inflation in advanced economies.
摘要：本文使用2005年至2022年间16个发达国家和新兴市场国家的条形码级价格数据，研究个别公司和产品类别在总体通货膨胀中的作用。我们将通货膨胀分解为由宏观经济冲击引起的部分，以及捕捉个别公司和产品类别影响的微观残差部分。在发达经济体中，企业微观残差占总体通货膨胀方差的41%，而产品类别微观残差占另外15%。企业微观残差的变化大部分是由于特定事件冲击，而不是由于大公司对共同冲击的更高敏感性。在国家横向比较中，市场份额不集中且通货膨胀较高的经济体（如新兴市场）中的微观残差影响较小。最后，微观残差对后疫情时期的通货膨胀激增有所贡献，其中企业层面的成分大约占2021-2022年发达经济体通货膨胀的三分之一。
我们有好消息告诉你：关于预期产能利用率最佳选择的企业层面证据
Niklas Amberg, Richard Friberg, and Chad Syverson #33400
Abstract: Using quarterly micro data on capacity utilization among Swedish manufacturing firms, we show that idiosyncratic factors are much more important than aggregate influences in explaining variation in capacity utilization across firms and over time. Idiosyncratic does not mean unpredictable, however. A simple newsvendor model of optimally set capacity predicts that higher demand uncertainty lowers capacity utilization, especially for high-markup firms. We test these predictions using data that contain firm-specific, forward-looking measures of uncertainty. Firms in the top of the uncertainty distribution on average have seven percentage points lower capacity utilization than firms in the bottom. The fall in capacity utilization is more than double for firms in the top rather than bottom tercile of the markup distribution.
摘要：通过使用瑞典制造业企业的季度产能利用率微观数据，我们发现，与总体影响相比，特定因素在解释企业间及随时间变化的产能利用率差异中起着更为重要的作用。然而，特定因素并不意味着不可预测。通过一个简单的新闻卖家模型，最优设定的产能预测表明，需求不确定性越高，产能利用率越低，特别是对于高利润率的公司。我们使用包含公司特定、前瞻性不确定性度量的数据来检验这些预测。位于不确定性分布顶部的公司，平均产能利用率比位于底部的公司低七个百分点。在产能利用率的下降中，位于利润率分布上三分之一的公司下降幅度是底部公司的两倍多。
从财政僵局到金融压制：衰退的解析
Olivier Jeanne #33395
Abstract: Financial repression can be used to avoid a government default when fiscal policy is constrained. We present a model showing that optimal financial repression progresses through successive stages with increasing levels of distortion. Data from advanced economies suggest that the initial stage of financial repression typically begins when government debt exceeds 100% to 120% of GDP. Moreover, Japan’s experience suggests that countries such as the U.S. have significant leeway before resorting to the most distortive forms of financial repression.
摘要：金融压制可以在财政政策受限时用来避免政府违约。我们提出了一个模型，表明最优的金融压制通过多个阶段逐步推进，并伴随着扭曲程度的增加。来自发达经济体的数据表明，金融压制的初始阶段通常在政府债务超过GDP的100%到120%时开始。此外，日本的经验表明，像美国这样的国家在采取最具扭曲性的金融压制形式之前，仍然有相当大的回旋余地。
往期精选：
